Saturday, October 10, 2015

Cab Thoughts 10/10/15

"I am just going outside and may be some time" Lawrence Oates, leaving his tent to die on Scott's return from his doomed South Pole expedition.


Here's an interesting conflict. A new Department of Defense “Law of War” manual distributed in June opens the door for U.S. military commanders to deem reporters who operate outside official channels and who resist censorship as “unprivileged belligerents,” military-speak for spies and saboteurs. The understandable fear is that military actions might, by their nature, need to be secret and thus a "free press" would be dangerous.

Malolactic fermentation is most popularly associated with rich, buttery, and frequently over-oaked Chardonnay.  It isn’t really a true fermentation process at all. True fermentation is the conversion of sugar into alcohol, carbon dioxide, and heat. In wine making this is usually achieved through yeast metabolism. Malolactic fermentation is the term used to describe the conversion of malic acid into lactic acid through the metabolism of a family of bacteria called lactic acid bacteria (LAB). Malic acid naturally develops in grapes and is usually associated with the tart flavor of green apples. Lactic acid, on the other-hand, does not naturally develop in grapes and is usually associated with the flavors of butter or cream. So malolactic fermentation can be used to flavor a wine by encouraging or discouraging the apple tart taste.  In some wines, such as Sauvignon Blanc, Riesling or Pinot Gris, the bright green apple flavor of malic acid provides sharpness and makes the wine seem light and refreshing. In these types of wines, ML is undesirable. Not so much in a cabernet.

Who is ....Dunning--Kruger?

ad hoc: adverb, adjective: For a particular purpose only (as opposed to a wider application); impromptu. ETY: From Latin ad hoc (for this). Earliest documented use: 1639.
 
It would be difficult to find any plausible argument for supposing that gold will weaken in dollar terms in the 1980s.
~The Times of London, 12/12/79. Gold peaked 40 days later at $875, collapsed, and then trended gently down throughout the 1980s.
 
Christopher Robin of Pooh fame was a real boy, Christopher Robin Milne the only child to Pooh's author, A. A. Milne. Christopher also wrote. His first two books, Enchanted Places and The Path Through the Trees, are memoirs of his growing up and out from under the shadow of the fictional Christopher Robin. The first is of the Settling-The-Score genre, unwanted celebrity, distant parents and all that.  
 
"The enemy is the gramophone mind whether or not one agrees with the record that is being played at the moment."--Orwell, in the intro to Animal Farm.
 
The "Sequester." Plankton, those microscopic cells in the ocean  perform nearly half of the photosynthesis and thus the consequent oxygen production on Earth -- equivalent to the total amount of photosynthetic activity of land plants combined. All the ideas of the ability of the ocean to handle CO2 depends first and foremost on the freely drifting plankton. There is very little science on this arm of "warming."

This is a good summary of the economic debate: While capitalism has a visible cost – profit – that does not exist under socialism, socialism has an invisible cost – inefficiency – that gets weeded out by losses and bankruptcy under capitalism.  The fact that most goods are more widely affordable in a capitalist economy implies that profit is less costly than inefficiency.  Put differently, profit is a price paid for efficiency.--Sowell
 
World crude-oil reserves today are 150 percent higher than they were in 1980. In 1980 every model I ever saw predicted "Peak Oil" and declining availability of petroleum with an expected calamity in energy availability. Models.
 
Knut Wicksell 1851-1926) suggested that when the market rate of interest exceeds the natural rate of interest funds are drained from income and spending to pay the financial obligations of debtors. Contrarily, these same monetary conditions support economic growth when the market rate of interest is below the natural rate of interest as funds flow from financial obligations into spending and income. The market rate of interest and the natural rate of interest must be very broad in order to capture the activities of all market participants. The Baa corporate bond yield, which is a proxy for a middle range borrowing risk, serves the purpose of reflecting the overall market rate of interest. The natural rate of interest can be captured by the broadest of all economic indicators, the growth rate of nominal GDP. The Baa corporate bond yield averaged about 4.9% in the second quarter. This is a full 230 basis points greater than the gain in nominal GDP expected by the Fed for 2015. Ergo: No growth.

 
The Dunning-Kruger effect is the inability of people incapable of understanding the situation at hand to recognize their own incompetence. It seems to be very common among politicians.
 
Most of the corporate cash flow of public companies being used for stock buybacks – a record $700 billion annualized rate this year at the expense of corporate investments in expansion. Thus, well into the seventh year of economic expansion, we have uniquely had no hint of a surge in capital spending, which remains well below average

 
On August 12, 1898, Spain surrendered Cuba in the Spanish-American War and the United States gained control over the island, opening a naval base at Guantanamo Bay. Over the next thirty-five years; the U.S. military intervened in Latin America twenty-eight times. According to a book by Dan Koeppel, the biggest consequence of those incursions was to make the region safe for the banana industry.

 
Demand for oil is increasing at its fastest pace in five years, boosted by an oil-price drop below $50 a barrel, a top energy watchdog said.
 
Patty Smith has a new book out, M Train, a follow-up memoir to Just Kids, which won the National Book Award in 2010. She is the author of five collections of poetry. Her seminal album "Horses" has been hailed as one of the top 100 albums of all time. In 2005, the French Ministry of Culture awarded Smith the title of Commandeur des Arts et des Lettres; she was inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 2007.
 
Regarding Obama's new regulatory laws on power plants, Laurence Tribe, a liberal constitutional expert and someone who wants to tackle climate change, says flatly that the EPA “is constitutionally forbidden to exercise powers Congress never delegated to it in the first place.”
 
Market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) just released its Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker report, which showed that the world bought 66.1 million PCs, a 11.8% decline over the last year. Apple was the only personal computer in the world that showed improving sales with a 16.1% year-over-year increase. The reason is the switch to mobile devices as the dominant computing platform. 2015 will be the first year that tablets outsell PCs: 320 million tablets versus 316 million PCs (desktops and laptops).




From the NYT: A growing body of internal policy memos and theological discussions has established guidelines for slavery, including a lengthy how-to manual issued by the Islamic State Research and Fatwa Department (!) just last month. Repeatedly, the ISIS leadership has emphasized a narrow and selective reading of the Quran and other religious rulings to not only justify violence, but also to elevate and celebrate each sexual assault as spiritually beneficial, even virtuous.
 
During the Middle Ages, a lemon slice was served with fish because it was thought the juice would dissolve any bones that were accidentally swallowed. 

Michael Pye has a book out about the evolution of Europe. In it he describes the Mongols as something very unlike anything the Europeans had ever seen or could remember. They were unlike anything that remained of Rome or Greece, from appearance up. They did not look like them. They were nomadic, had no cities to love or long for, never understood money as anything other than complex barter; they were drunkards and ate their dead. Militarily they were lightly armed with little metal and their horses were fast and vulnerable. They were culturally opposed to retreat and, if they did, it was likely a trap. They used light catapults, had gunpowder and fired rockets for damage and confusion, and communicated on the battlefield through complex flags, torches and couriers. Because of their speed, they were happy to divide forces.

AAAAaaaaannnnndddd......a graph:
Chart of the Day 

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