Saturday, March 31, 2018

Sunday/Easter

Happy Easter!

Easter is the essential Christian event. Every aspect of the Christian church hinges on Christ's resurrection.

The gospel is extremely well written, filled with little particulars (the woman hesitant to enter the tomb, Peter being outrun to the tomb, the meticulous arrangement of the burial cloths, the assumption that the body was stolen--after the assumption by the Pharisees that the apostles would steal it)--all giving misdirection and specificity to what becomes the philosophical earthquake of all time.

Yet how does this all hinge? Hearsay? The interpretation of a sacred book? Amulets and magic rites? No. Amazingly it hinges on us.

By the time Christ rises, we know all the players. We even have some insights about them. They are not revolutionaries, not mystics and, while seemingly sincere, they are not special. They are relatively normal working folks with responsibilities and, probably, annoyed families. As seen by their behavior during the Passion, they are not fully aware of what is happening. Nor are they particularly brave. Yet, after this crisis where their leader is tortured and killed, they somehow emerge as philosophers and martyrs. They all, to a man, experience a mind-changing, life-changing event. Scattered and leaderless they raise a religious movement that challenges everything in its time and, eventually, forces mighty Rome to adapt. 

Christ performed the great, unarguable miracle. It was the behavior of men, people, who confirmed and developed it. No leap of faith was necessary. They were convinced and changed. Then they convinced and changed the world.

Easter Eve

For all its importance, Easter in the New Testament is treated more as a challenge to Christ's followers than the challenge to nature and the intellect that it is. There are several descriptions than vary considerably; in one the confused followers find a empty tomb with some linen fallen underfoot, some strangely, neatly folded. But in most the empty tomb is mediated by some extraordinary event or individual, earthquake or angel. Then the story seems to go into suspended animation. There is no cataclysmic epiphany. The realization is gradual--in typical biblical cosmic humor, the first witness are not even legal witnesses as they are women. Christ's astonishing miracle is made clear and defined slowly to various individuals, one at a time.
As befits a collision of the physical and the spiritual which results in a new supernatural order.

Friday, March 30, 2018

Honda at the SXSW

At the SXSW meeting, two researchers, Bina and Marci, talked about a large study they had done for Honda. The goal: compare how well TV commercials worked on prospective buyers vs. Honda’s own experts.

To test this, they assembled two panels: regular people who were shopping for cars, and executives from Honda dealerships.
The test subjects all watched an hour of TV comedy shows including both Honda and other commercials, just like you would at home... except attached to machines measuring brain activity, eye movement, and so on. This let the researchers see exactly what part of the TV screen drew their eyes and which specific words caught their attention.
The results surprised everyone.
The words and images Honda executives liked had almost zero correlation to those that attracted potential customers. These “experts” homed in on what they knew: the car’s features and financing terms. Consumers, on the other hand, made much more emotional connections.

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Reverie

What do you expect from a nation whose national anthem asks a question?--Alaric Phlogiston


Eight California cities and counties, including Richmond, which is home to a large Chevron refinery, have filed lawsuits against a range of oil, gas, and coal companies seeking billions of dollars to help pay for past and future damages linked to climate change. On January 25 the city of Boulder, Colorado took legal action to force fossil fuel companies to cover the costs of damages caused by severe past and future weather events. The City of New York sued five big oil companies, including ExxonMobil, BP and Shell, for damages related to Hurricane Sandy in 2012.  According to Mayor Bill de Blasio, greenhouse gas emissions from the production and consumption of fossil fuels precipitated a change in global climate that caused the storm to hit the city.
We simply have a lower demand for cause and effect now.


It is difficult to imagine that the large data companies, after being exposed for their incredible power and influence, will not have jealous politicians start to initiate controls and regulations over them in the guise of righteousness.



NPR (3/22) reports the US is “undercounting opioid-related overdoses by 20 to 35 percent, according to a study published in February in the journal Addiction.” NPR reports that data from death certificates “move from coroners and medical examiners to states and eventually the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,” which reports more than 42,000 people died from opioid-related overdoses in 2016; but “an analysis of overdoses that weren’t linked to specific drugs” puts the number of opioid overdose deaths “closer to 50,000.”

A tariff (or its equivalent) generally ends up being paid by domestic purchasers, since they translate into a higher domestic price. Foreign producers pay the tax, but get reimbursed by the higher price they can charge in the protected market. It is precisely to increase the domestic price they get that domestic producers lobby for the tariff.
So tariffs are in essence a domestic tax.



“Let’s be a dragon today.” This was the advice given the girl before she won the snowboarding pipe event in the Olympics, by her father.

Re: high school shootings. Sooner or later we will do what democracies do best, attack the problem with aggressive symbolism. We will then reward ourselves with debating why the symbolism did not work and divert ourselves with fine-tuning it.
Madness and freedom are a bad mix. So are freedom and science.

This is from Zeynep Tufekci in Wired: "In the 20th century, the US passed laws that outlawed lead in paint and gasoline, that defined how much privacy a landlord needs to give his tenants, and that determined how much a phone company can surveil its customers. We can decide how we want to handle digital surveillance, attention-­channeling, harassment, data collection, and algorithmic decision­making. We just need to start the discussion. Now."
So it's not companies responding to public outcry that should fix this situation. Tufekci wants some government intervention to fix it. Which means, almost certainly, censorship. And, ironically, the author seems to think that the source of government's spying on its public is just the one to fix companies who spy on the public. 

Who is....Hedy Lamarr?

Lemieux notes:
"The Enlightenment was the European ideological movement that, in the 17th and 18th century, emphasized reason, human flourishing, and individual liberty. It provided the intellectual foundation of the American Revolution. It brought the individual at the center of the social, economic, and political scene. Even when Enlightenment thinkers developed arguments for the state, their goal was to secure the individual's property or to found the state on "the consent of every individual," as John Lock wrote. In The Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith writes "an individual," "the individual," or "individuals" nearly a hundred times.
....the Wall Street Journal's Saturday Essay was adapted from a forthcoming book by Steven Pinker, the well-known Harvard University psychologist, titled "The Enlightenment Is Working." The essay celebrated the Enlightenment's values and their impact on today's life. Against the usual gloom, Pinker argued that never has the world been more democratic, wealthier, and more promising for.... For whom? That's what was surprising in Pinker's piece: nowhere does the word "individual" appear. But there are many "people" and "nations."

Secrecy, being an instrument of conspiracy, ought never to be the system of a regular government. -Jeremy Bentham, jurist and philosopher (15 Feb 1748-1832)


"The U.S. record suggests that indeed “progress was the great staple of the country.”  Traditions, class lines, embedded history – all these dominated technology in the United States far less than they did in those nations from which the immigrants came.  Few Americans asked the status or heritage of anyone who proposed a new procedure, a new product.  They asked, rather: will it work?  That pragmatic attitude led to a persistent development of better items – from an apple corer to save work for the housewife, to a compound engine that drove steamships faster."-- Wesleyan University economic historian Stanley Lebergott
That said, progress is probably not enough for most, but it certainly is better than stagnation and decline.



"Frankly, the United States is under attack," Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats told the Senate Intelligence Committee, adding that Russia is attempting to "degrade our democratic values and weaken our alliances."
Coats said Russian President Vladimir Putin was emboldened by Russia's interference in the 2016 presidential elections and is targeting the midterms. 
"There should be no doubt that (Putin) views the past effort as successful," said Coats who was joined Tuesday by the nation's other top intelligence officials, including CIA Director Mike Pompeo, National Security Agency Director Mike Rogers and FBI Director Christopher Wray.
​85% of the espionage budgets of Russia and Cuba go to disinformation, not--not--data collection.

Golden oldie:
http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2008/10/downside-of-tolerence.html




The prominence of political opinions of athletes and celebrities is partly because of simple name recognition but is also because intelligent political explanations are few and far between and anything will fill the void. Murdering school children should stimulate some serious discussion but does not. That is a very bad sign.

There a story about inherited experience that is shocking. It is a difficult topic as epigenetics might confuse matters. Just when everything seems straight-forward, Lamarck emerges again. Here is one article from Scientific American. 
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fearful-memories-passed-down/


www.scientificamerican.com
Latest news and features on science issues that matter including earth, environment, and space. Get your science news from the most trusted source!



The FBI said on Friday that it mistakenly didn’t investigate a credible and specific tip about the teenager charged with storming into a Florida high school and killing 17 people. But don't worry; when they get a lot more power they'll do better.

There is an odd contradiction between the declared wish to live and let live — “diversity!”, “don’t judge!” — and the actual behaviour, which is ruthlessly and priggishly judgmental. They never stop drafting acts of uniformity, always in the name of the collective against the individual. The minority of one is the most oppressed minority of all.--Ridley:


Interesting story: The death of Russian citizens in Syria from a US coalition strike last week, which has been played down by both Moscow and Washington, has exposed the role of Russian mercenaries in the multi-front conflict.


"....following the passage of NAFTA, Michael Kinsley wrote In that “when a $16-an-hour American loses his job to a $3-an-hour Mexican,” fairness and political prudence dictate that he be compensated for his loss.
Maybe Kinsley is right regarding political prudence, but fairness seems to dictate just the opposite.  Here we have an American who has devoted his life to charging the rest of us $16 for something we ought to have been able to buy for $3.  What fairness dictates is that he and others who have benefited from protectionism should compensate the majority of their countrymen who have borne the burden."---Steve Landsburg


Hedy Lamarr, apart from having been one of the best-looking women in the world, was the co-inventor of a gyroscopic system for guiding submarine torpedoes. She apparently was a brilliant mind.

An interesting observation by Will: "The last surge of infrastructure spending, in the Obama administration's stimulus, taught a useful lesson: Because of the ever-thickening soup of regulations, there are no "shovel-ready" projects. So, such spending cannot be nimble enough to ameliorate business cycles."
So government meddling hinders government meddling?

New research into the world's most famous medieval manuscript, the Book of Kells, has revealed a surprising new possibility: the manuscript may be two separate works, created a half century apart and later combined.

It is good to see so many public figures announce their opposition to school shootings.

Since 1950, our increasing longevity — an amazing 10 extra years of life for the average American — has been mainly the result of pharmaceutical breakthroughs. Americans consume about 46% of the world's brand-name drugs but are responsible for 70% of patented drugmakers' profits. France, Norway, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, Italy and other government-run health systems buy identical American drugs at bargain prices — usually half what Americans pay. These state-run health systems often threaten to exclude a drug from their country entirely, even if it could save lives, to extract a deep discount. Norway barred Roche's breast cancer drug Perjeta until the company slashed the price far below what Medicare pays.

AAAaaaaaannnnnndddddd......a graph:


  

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Beauty is Truth

Beauty is truth, truth beauty...well, maybe not. Maybe truth needs a little help.


After

Facebook

According to various news accounts, a professor at Cambridge University built a Facebook app around 2014 that involved a personality quiz. About 270,000 users of the app agreed to share some of their Facebook information, as well as data from people on their friends list. As a result, tens of millions ended up part of this data-mining operation.
Consulting firm Cambridge Analytica, which paid for the research, later worked with the Trump campaign to help them target advertising campaigns on Facebook, using the data they'd gathered on users.

But while the Trump campaign used Cambridge Analytica during the primaries, it didn't use the information during the general election campaign, relying instead on voter data provided by the Republican National Committee, according to CBS News. It reports that  "the Trump campaign had tested the RNC data, and it proved to be vastly more accurate than Cambridge Analytica's."

The Times article talks about how Trump consultants "exploited" Facebook data, and quotes a source calling it a "scam." It has been widely described as a massive data breach.

But Facebook had been promoting itself  to political parties looking for a new way to reach voters.
Nor was this the first time Facebook users had their data unwittingly shared with a political campaign.

In 2012, the Obama campaign encouraged supporters to download an Obama 2012 Facebook app that, when activated, let the campaign collect Facebook data both on users and their friends.
According to a July 2012 MIT Technology Review article, when you installed the app, "it said it would grab information about my friends: their birth dates, locations, and 'likes.' "
The campaign boasted that more than a million people downloaded the app, which, given an average friend-list size of 190, means that as many as 190 million had at least some of their Facebook data vacuumed up by the Obama campaign — without their knowledge or consent.

If anything, Facebook made it easy for Obama to do so. A former campaign director, Carol Davidsen, tweeted that "Facebook was surprised we were able to suck out the whole social graph, but they didn't stop us once they realized that was what we were doing."
This Facebook treasure trove gave Obama an unprecedented ability to reach out to nonsupporters. More important, the campaign could deliver carefully targeted campaign messages disguised as messages from friends to millions of Facebook users.

The campaign readily admitted that this subtle deception was key to their Facebook strategy.
"People don't trust campaigns. They don't even trust media organizations," Teddy Goff, the Obama campaign's digital director, said at the time. "Who do they trust? Their friends."

The effort was called a "game-changer" in the 2012 election, and the Obama campaign boasted that it was "the most groundbreaking piece of technology developed for the campaign."

The only difference, as far as we can discern, between the two campaigns' use of Facebook, is that in the case of Obama the users themselves agreed to share their data with the Obama campaign, as well as that of their friends.
The users that downloaded the Cambridge app, meanwhile, were only told that the information would be used for academic purposes. Nor was the data to be used for anything other than academic purposes.

It's an important distinction, to be sure, and Facebook is right to be attacked for its inability to control how its user data were being gathered and shopped around. (Facebook tightened its privacy rules on data sharing apps in 2015.)
But keep in mind that it wasn't the Trump campaign that solicited the collection of the data. And, as we said, it didn't use the data in the general election campaign.

Obama, in contrast, was collecting live data on active users right up until Election Day, and at a scale that dwarfed anything the Trump campaign could access.
More important, the vast majority of people involved in these data-mining operations had no idea they were participating. And in the case of Obama, they had no way of knowing that the Obama campaign material cluttering their feed wasn't really just political urgings from their friends.

There is one other big difference: how these revelations were received by pundits and the press. In 2012, Obama was wildly celebrated in news stories for his mastery of Big Data, and his genius at mining it to get out the vote.
We were told then about how the campaign "won the race for voter data," and  how it "connected with young voters." His data analytics gurus were treated as heroes.
(from an IBD editorial)

Monday, March 26, 2018

Palm Sunday

Yesterday was Palm Sunday.

The Gospel starts with Christ preparing for Passover and ends with His burial. It is long, uncomfortable and gruesome. (The word "excruciating" comes from "cross.")

Superficially, it is a story of human acceptance, denial and betrayal. But, as always--it seems, it is subtle. There is more at work. Judas' ironic kiss is just that--(but not so in Weber and Rice.) And there is a curious slant early in the  Gospel in the Passover planning. Christ sends several apostles for the early preparation, getting a horse for transportation, getting a place for dinner. These plans all have in them a general "knowing" of everything and everyone involved.  The horse is ready and in place, the upper room is available. The stars are aligned; everything is in tune for the coming event.

But there is no magic. This is no place for the astounding.
What is coming is much more than that.

Saturday, March 24, 2018

Sunday/Universe

Fewer than 600 of the nearly 108 billion people who’ve existed on this planet have seen it from orbit. That rare experience, along with their advanced science degrees, makes astronauts seem uniquely qualified to answer the question: Are we alone in the universe?
Several of them sat at a small conference table in Los Angeles, along with filmmaker Darren Aronofsky, at an event for the series One Strange Rock, which debuts Monday on National Geographic.The film is no David Attenborough stroll through nature. Instead, Aronofsky (of Mother! and Black Swan fame) mainlines wonder, juxtaposing intimate images from Earth with sweeping shots from the International Space Station.
The theme is clear: Life on Earth is miraculous. Out of a nearly infinite combination of possibilities, the conditions were right for single-celled organisms to rise from inorganic material, which evolved sheltered by Earth's magnetic field and ozone, with a bounty of oxygen and water to support them.


"You look at all these systems … and it’s amazing all the things that have to come together to make this grand reality happen," Aronofsky said.

So, having seen the blue marble of Earth from space, do astronauts think there's life on other planets?
It's complicated.
The reason alien life seems likely is the same reason it's so hard to find. The universe is big. So freaking big.

"We've basically proven that every star has planets," said Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield, who has spent 4,000 hours in space. "Then you start doing the math."

The math isn't easy. How many stars are in the universe? Well, that depends on the size of the universe. We're able to observe the cosmic microwave background (CMB), radiation formed around 400,000 years after the Big Bang. It tells us the observable universe goes back around 14 billion years. But there could be something beyond the CMB, or even other universes contained in a massive "multiverse."

Within the constraints of the observable universe, there could be 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (or septillion) stars, according to astronomer David Kornreich. (He conceded to Space.com that the number could be a gross underestimate.)
If every one of those stars has at least one planet, then, well, it seems inconceivable that life wouldn't exist elsewhere.
(from Mashable)

Reverie

The turkey was fed and sheltered for 1000 consecutive days, but this did not mean that the butcher loved him. --anon












U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’s (BLS’s) most-recent estimate of monthly layoffs and discharges.  From January 2007 through December 2017 that average is about 1.7 million.  That is, on average for the years 2007 through 2017, the number of Americans who were either laid-off or discharged from their jobs was 1.7 million monthly.  Therefore, over the eleven-year period of January 2007 through December 2017, 224.4 million Americans in total were either laid-off or discharged from their jobs.  Of course, the vast majority of these dismissed workers soon found other jobs, which is why the unemployment rate is today lower than it was over all but the final three months of that period.








Mexico is one of only two places in the world (the other is off the coast of Peru and Ecuador) that resides on or near the junctions of four tectonic plates—the Pacific, Cocos, Caribbean, and North American plates. This makes the country a hub for seismic activity, the cause of Mexico’s many mountain ranges and plateaus.

Historically, Mexico City could not easily move large numbers of troops over vast distances and treacherous terrain, so it has had no choice but to rely on local forces to augment the national security forces. Friedman argues that the  Mexican states, in turn, have been conditioned to be self-reliant on security. From time to time, the isolation of some areas and subsequent feeling of alienation has engendered the creation of armed rebel groups, hoping to secede from or even overthrow the national government. Combined, these trends have led to a strong belief in homegrown security and skepticism of the national government. This strongly influences the way state and non-state actors respond to lapses in security in modern Mexico.

This fragmentation has led to more than skepticism and rebellion, it has allowed the rise of well-armed cartel proxies for government force.






Who is....Esteban Loaiza?



All of Lincoln's sons but one died in their youth. In 1862, Willie Lincoln contracted typhoid fever. He lay sick for weeks before dying on February 20. His death crushed Lincoln, who cried to his secretary, John Nicolay, “…my boy is gone–he is actually gone.” Lincoln and his wife Mary grieved for months and the president never fully recovered from the loss. Tad Lincoln died from illness at age 18 in 1871. The Lincoln’s second son, Eddie, died shortly before his fourth birthday, in 1850. Only the Lincoln’s first child, Robert, lived to an advanced age; he passed away at age 82 in 1926.








"Comfort" has emerged as a criteria for acceptance in our lives. Apparently To Kill A Mockingbird has been deemed "uncomfortable" in some Minnesota schools and has been removed. Comfort. Comfortable books, as a criteria, will be very limiting--and widely personal so in might become all inclusive. Discomfort is the essence of many entertainment genres, comedians, horror movies, war stories, some large periods of history, almost all productions of intellectual conflict and social resolution. How could one write about the Holocaust, the Inquisition, the Crucifixion, or slavery? This may even outlaw lullabies in preschool--which I always found terrifying. Comfort is a wide, tight net and very unlike us.





On the other hand, I am uncomfortable with this story:

An online adjunct professor incorrectly told a student that Australia isn't a country and gave her a failing grade, prompting Southern New Hampshire University to replace the instructor.
Buzzfeed News reports that the 27-year-old student in Idaho was assigned to compare American social norms to that of another country. She chose to study social media use in Australia, but the professor gave her a zero on that portion of the assignment, saying Australia is a continent, not a country.

And this one:

The Israeli military shot down an Iranian drone it said infiltrated the country early Saturday before launching a "large-scale attack" on at least a dozen Iranian and Syrian targets inside Syria. Responding anti-aircraft fire led to the downing of an Israeli fighter jet.





www.washingtonpost.com
Why so many free agents? Teams are aligning their behavior with changing information.

An interesting notion. Over 40% of white lawmakers have law degrees. So do over 40% of black lawmakers. Blacks have a relatively low percentage of law degrees, around 3% and, although whites are low as well, they are not as low as blacks. So who do black lawmakers have more in common with, their constituents or their white colleagues?


One Philadelphia Eagles player says the team ran a fake walkthrough in Minneapolis to throw off the New England Patriots in case they tried any of their alleged spying .



Trump has been ripped for criticizing the British NHS but there are some articles appearing that imply things in Europe are not going  so well.

England: Health spending per capita in the UK climbed 160% between 2000 and 2015, according to the World Health Organization, 60% faster than in the U.S. As a share of GDP, health spending increased 50% over those years, compared with 36% in the U.S. In the U.K., private spending has been skyrocketing. In fact, per-capita out-of-pocket spending in the U.K. shot up 233% from 2000 to 2015, according to the World Health Organization. In the U.S., it went up just 50%. Out of seven major industrial nations, the U.K. had the lowest cancer survival rates for colon, lung and prostate cancer, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The mortality rate for heart-attack and stroke patients is higher there than in the U.S. (But, just look at it from the billionaire's point of view.)





An estimated 4.6 Billion dollars was bet illegally on the Super Bowl.

Golden oldie:


steeleydock.blogspot.com
The Westboro Baptist Church is in front of the Supreme Court this session. The Church is small, eighteen members or so, and inbred, all of i...







When I was growing up, in the 1940s and 1950s, parents and teachers commonly taught children the venerable saying, “Sticks and stones may break my bones, but words can never hurt me.” Judging by all the news articles I read about snowflake youth, it seems that the tables have been turned on the old aphorism. You may now bomb people back into the stone age, but never, never refer to them with an unwelcome pronoun.--Higgs





Berkley has a municipal bond payable in Bitcoin.

From a letter to the NYT:



"Let’s see if I’ve got Pankaj Mishra’s argument straight (“The Rise of China and the Fall of the ‘Free Trade’ Myth,” Feb. 11).  He recognizes that the all-embracing state control of the Chinese economy before Mao’s death was “calamitous,” but Mishra then credits China’s post-Mao economic growth, not to the very real liberalization of markets in China that has occurred since then, but, instead, to what remains of that state control."

A stolen analogy: A man covered in chains cannot walk. Remove some chains, he begins to walk--but it’s not because some chains were removed, it’s because some chains remain.









Prepare yourselves: I am told on good authority that 63 people are responsible for 40% of the gambling profits at the Meadows Casino.









There is a massive gap between school and work, between learning and earning. While the labor market rewards good grades and fancy degrees, most of the subjects schools require simply aren't relevant on the job. Literacy and numeracy are vital, but few of us use history, poetry, higher mathematics or foreign languages after graduation. The main reason firms reward education is because it certifies (or "signals") brains, work ethic and conformity.--Caplan







The graduation rate of African Americans in high school is 72% nationally. Among black males it is 47%. (I am a bit unsure what the denominator is.)







Edwards argues that the increasing scope of the government increases the tendency for members of congress to compromise. He uses Cruz' recent vote in favor of the trillion dollar deficit: "The number of federal subsidy programs has doubled since the 1980s. That has strengthened the power of logrolling and put upward pressure on spending. It would have been harder for congressional leaders to buy off Senator Cruz in the 1980s because the federal government was not in the business of huge disaster bailouts at that time."



The bigger the scope the more the option to trade.



Former Pirates pitcher Esteban Loaiza was arrested in San Diego County on Friday for transporting about 44 pounds of heroin and cocaine.







Vanessa Trump, the wife of Donald Trump Jr., and two other people were taken to a hospital after she opened a piece of mail containing an unidentified white powder that was later determined not to be hazardous, New York officials said. Ah, peaceful protests by the righteous. No wonder she wants to get out of there.





On the evening of February 13, 1945, a series of Allied firebombing raids began against the German city of Dresden, reducing the “Florence of the Elbe” to rubble and flames, and killing as many as 135,000 people. It was the single most destructive bombing of the war—including Hiroshima and Nagasaki—and all the more horrendous because little, if anything, was accomplished strategically, since the Germans were already on the verge of surrender. "Strategically" is the key word here as the atrocity of war apparently needs a "strategic" lens to be viewed through.  Kurt Vonnegut was a POW there at the time and the raid eventually became the center of Slaughterhouse Five.

The novel--and the event--became a symbol of the very peculiar "anti-cruelty-in-war" movement.






According to the Congressional Budget Office, even before taking under consideration the budget impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the added spending from the budget deals, we are about three years away from the next $1 trillion deficit. Also, this year, the Department of the Treasury will inevitably have to borrow hundreds of billions of dollars to pile on top of our already eye-popping $20.6 trillion of gross debt, which is public debt plus the debt the federal government owes to other accounts, such as Social Security. That's over 100 percent of our gross domestic product. It will also have to request yet another increase to its borrowing limit.
"We are all Keynesians now?" Even he would not stimulate during an expansion.








AAAAaaaannnnndddddd......a graph:

Friday, March 23, 2018

John Fetterman

John Fetterman appeared recently to speak to the worthies at the Pittsburgh Golf Club.

He is running for the position of Lieutenant Governor of the State of Pennsylvania. He is currently the Mayor of Braddock, Pa..
Born in York, he graduated in finance from Albright as class president and planned to go into some sales or marketing position when a good friend was killed in an auto accident. This, he says, changed his life; he became acutely aware of the fragility of life and the importance of creating meaning in one's relationship with the world.

He changed course. He got a master's degree in Public Policy from Harvard University. He moved to Braddock in 2001 to serve with AmeriCorps and start a non profit organization, Braddock Redux. There he pursued a life much like a social worker. In 2005 he ran for mayor of Braddock and won by a single vote. He has made great efforts to raise Braddock's profile through TV appearances, a Levi ad campaign. His efforts at local election has improved; he wins now with over 85% of the vote.
He has made equality, environmental protection, gay rights, immigration and marijuana legalization major campaign issues. Fetterman is a self-described democratic socialist. He ran for the United States Senate in 2016, but was defeated in the Democratic primary. During the campaign, Fetterman endorsed Sanders.



Fetterman has a shaved head, is 6'8" and weighs 350 pounds. He looks like a biker and talks like a Mercy nun. When he speaks, he sounds perfectly sincere, completely committed to the areas of the world that are incomplete and that he knows are incomplete; he just does not care. He develops city property, practices Narcan injections with his family and has an Urban Farm. On his left arm are the numbers 15104 - Braddock's zip code, and on the right, the dates of five murders that occurred in the town since he was elected mayor.
If this description seems a bit incomplete in explaining this man's popularity and his rising ambition, it is. But the good Mayor has a poorly hidden card: His wife, Gisele, an undocumented immigrant from Brazil who talks like a Mercy nun and looks like a runway model. She, too, is an intense but gentle and understanding social activist who has developed a huge charity that provides unused food to the poor.

When Fetterman left the PGC with his wife he received a standing ovation from a room of people who not only had never voted for a Democrat, they had never intentionally met one.

The First Lady of Braddock:






Her husband, his honor, the Mayor:Image result for fetterman braddock