Election time is always a worry. Can we, the Democracy, do it? Can we live up to Madison's expectations? After all, the alarming choices we have did not come from nowhere.
In 1906 the British statistician Francis Galton was at a fair where about 800 people tried to guess the weight of a dead ox. Galton collected all the guesses so he could figure out how far off the mark the average guess was. The guesses were wide ranging, most much too high or low, but the average of the guesses stunned him: The dead ox weighed 1,198 pounds, the crowd's average, 1,197. Thus was born the concept of the "Wisdom of Crowds." Individuals might be wildly wrong but, as a group, they were reliable and accurate.
In 1906 the British statistician Francis Galton was at a fair where about 800 people tried to guess the weight of a dead ox. Galton collected all the guesses so he could figure out how far off the mark the average guess was. The guesses were wide ranging, most much too high or low, but the average of the guesses stunned him: The dead ox weighed 1,198 pounds, the crowd's average, 1,197. Thus was born the concept of the "Wisdom of Crowds." Individuals might be wildly wrong but, as a group, they were reliable and accurate.
Warmth swept through the democracy. Collective decisions were dependable, regardless of how many goofy outliers there were. And aristocracy was risky. Small groups of decision makers meant small samples of input. We should expand the franchise. Long Term Capital Management was doomed despite the accepted genius of its two creators; a group of guys in a bar could tell you their plan would not work.
Very inspiring and reassuring----until you run across this observation of an admittedly limited, single (white) man: "Democracy is the pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance." - H. L. Mencken
No comments:
Post a Comment