Saturday, July 23, 2016

Cab Thoughts 7/23/16

"The value of an education ... is not the learning of many facts but the training of the mind to think something that cannot be learned from textbooks." - Albert Einstein


A remotely operated vehicle (ROV) fitted with a camera is currently scouring parts of the Mariana Trench as part of a project of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The Mariana Trench is located in the Pacific Ocean, just east of the 14 Mariana Islands (11"21' North latitude and 142" 12' East longitude ) near Japan. It is the deepest part of the earth's oceans, and the deepest location of the earth itself.  It was created by ocean-to-ocean subduction, a phenomena in which a plate topped by oceanic crust is subducted beneath another plate topped by oceanic crust. The deepest part of the Mariana Trench is the Challenger Deep, so named after the exploratory vessel HMS Challenger II; a fishing boat converted into a sea lab by  Swiss scientist Jacques Piccard. It has a known depth of 10,994 meters and so far the ROV has descended to a depth of 4,064 meters.

According to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, tax freedom day, the day when the nation as a whole has earned enough to pay the state and federal tax bill for the year, arrived on April 24. That means all the money we made in the first 114 days of 2016 went to taxes.

Warren Buffett had a lot to say about hedge funds and financial advisors at his annual meeting, none of it complementary. He worked in a fresh plug for a book he's been recommending for decades, "Where Are the Customers' Yachts?," by Fred Schwed. The title comes from the story of a visitor to New York who was admiring all the nice boats in the harbor, and was told that they belonged to Wall Street bankers. He naively asked where the bankers' clients kept their boats. The answer: They couldn't afford them. "There's been far, far, far more money made by people in Wall Street through salesmanship abilities than through investment abilities," he said. "There are a few people out there that are going to have an outstanding investment record. But very few of them. And the people you pay to help identify them don't know how to identify them. They do know how to sell you." Interestingly, at the heart of Buffet's investment success has been his ability to draw on other people's money as an investment source through his insurance companies.

Capital is the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Capital has its rights, which are as worthy of protection as any other rights.--Abraham Lincoln

Henry David Thoreau is buried with Emerson, Hawthorne, and the Alcotts on Authors' Ridge, in Concord's Sleepy Hollow Cemetery. Thoreau was an integral but prickly member of the Transcendentalist community in Massachusetts, as might be expected from the writer of "I never found the companion that was so companionable as solitude." Even Emerson grew to dislike his friend's Waldenisms, if only for stylistic reasons: "Always a weary, captious paradox to fight you with," he wrote in his journal. In his journal, Thoreau shows how he could get just as tired of Emerson's smooth "palaver," his "repeating himself, shampooing himself, [as if] Christ himself." Thoreau was not without friends, but most seemed to side with Emerson. One said, "I love Henry, but I cannot like him; and as for taking his arm, I should as soon think of taking the arm of an elm-tree."

Who is...Vargas Llosa,?

Millennials have now overtaken baby boomers as America's largest living generation according to Pew. Americans aged 18-34 are going to college, getting into debt, entering into the workforce at minimum wage, and living with their parents. I'm unsure how much of a big deal this is. When I was a child, my widowed grandmother lived with four of her children, one a widow. One, my uncle, eloped after my grandmother died. He was 72.

Speaking of Millennials, Rodriguez Braun, writing about Vargas Llosa,  The Way to Paradise, sees much in common between utopianism and what we call today "populism." They are both rejection of that free society that, he writes "is founded upon modesty concerning the existence of any historical law, on the community of interest of free women and men, on realism over the nature of politics and on the respect of the individual in a liberal democracy". Essentially, on the impossibility of building heaven on earth.

National Pro Fastpitch's newest expansion team, the Houston-based Scrap Yard Dawgs, signed Monica Abbott, 30, to a $1 million, six-year contract. It's the first $1 million contract for the NPF, a softball league that begins its 50-game schedule this month for the 13th season.  As a senior pitcher at the University of Tennessee, she set NCAA Division I records for the most games started, wins, strikeouts, shutouts and innings pitched. As a member of the Chicago Bandits last season, she posted a 13-1 record with a 0.31 ERA and 149 strikeouts in 90 innings. 


In the early 1800s, David Ricardo developed a theory of comparative advantage as an explanation for the origins of trade. And this explanation has substantial power, particularly in a pre-industrial world. Assume, for example, that England is suited to produce wool, while Portugal is suited to produce wine. If each nation specializes, then total consumption in the world, and in each nation, is expanded. Interestingly, this is still true if one nation is better at producing both commodities: even the less productive nation benefits from specialization and trade. 

The purpose of the financial system is to bring together people who have surplus funds (savers) with people who have a deficit of funds (spenders). European Central Bank President Mario Draghi had this to say: Negative interest rates are "not the problem, but a symptom of an underlying problem" caused by a "global excess of savings." Too much savings. How do those two ideas fit together?

More on banks: if you really wanted to punish the banks, you would deregulate them and force them to compete with one another. Bad banks would go out of business, and new ones would spring up left and right. And consumers would benefit.

Stanford University students voted on a campus resolution that would have their college require a course on Western civilization, as it did until the 1980s. Stanford students rejected the proposal 1,992 to 347. A columnist at the Stanford Daily explained why: Teaching Western civilization means "upholding white supremacy, capitalism and colonialism, and all other oppressive systems that flow from Western civilizations." So there is hostility to the culture that has been the greatest economic and social engine in the history of the world. Why? One opinion: The West integrated into its success moral standards, artistic standards, and cultural standards. And standards imply judgment.

Golden oldies:
http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2009/07/politics-health-care-and-energy.html

Neal Gabler has written an article in The Atlantic on finances in Middle America. While it is getting hammered in reviews, it is really worth the read. It is here: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/05/my-secret-shame/476415/  But it should be read critically. It is not well done and is liked by some, I assume, because it has an honesty about it. But the nidus of the story is that this guy made some very bad choices, not the least of which is his occupation choice--he is a professional writer. And he thinks badly. For example, on his daughters' college plans: "Because I made too much money for the girls to get more than meager scholarships, but too little money to afford to pay for their educations in full, and because--another choice--we believed they had earned the right to attend good universities, universities of their choice, we found ourselves in a financial vortex." So he and his family had "earned the right" to good colleges. And "We have no retirement savings, because we emptied a small 401(k) to pay for our younger daughter's wedding." Sorry, that's just stupid. There is simply a disconnect between this guy's thinking and the world he lives in. My bet is it has nothing to do with the economic system, either. My bet is he would screw up any complicated financial system--or would demand so much support from it that the system itself would fail.
The middle class is in deep water but neither the devil nor the stars were involved.


In the 2012 book The Clash of Generations, published by MIT Press, authored by Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns, they calculate that on a net present value basis the U.S. government faces liabilities for Social Security and other entitlement programs that exceed the funds in the various trust funds by $60 trillion. This sum is more than three times greater than the current level of GDP.

As the Russian taunting warship flights show, international relations depend upon someone being a grownup. Someone must see the bigger picture. The U.S. must always have as leaders someone who will not be reflexive or gratuitous. And some, usually the exceptionally stupid or weak, the symbolic or malicious, often are willing to take advantage of that. That said, there are reasons why a nation would do this kind of provocative foolishness.  Near-threatening behavior elicits responses. Those responses tell the other side about how ships and planes might maneuver in a real attack, how quickly events are communicated to higher echelons, frequencies used by fire-control systems, and so on. The target must assume that the approach is hostile and begin responding, and that response can provide useful data. But the primary purpose of such a maneuver is simply to show that you are willing to do it, to signal unhappiness, and to impress the public by projecting a sense of power. The Russians love this nonsense. But as anyone reading The Hunt for Red October knows, this kind of nonsense is not limited to nations. Or children.


Amanuensis: n: 1. a person employed to write what another dictates or to copy what has been written by another; secretary. Amanuensis can be traced to the Latin phrase servus ā manū meaning "slave at hand." It entered English in the early 1600s. Should the word be banned because of its origin?

The Chinese are reforming their military along American lines. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) had been a World War II-type force, heavy on manpower but not evolving technologically. This was particularly true of the ground forces. In addition, hampered by interservice rivalry, the army, navy, and air force did not operate well together. So the Chinese are emulating the United States' Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986, which radically changed US military operational principles. It created geographical commands-such as Central Command and Pacific Command-with forces operating under a single regional commander, regardless of service. The services (Army, Navy, and Air Force) lost control of their forces once they were deployed. At that point, their functions were confined to training, procurement, and tactical doctrine. So in the US, the services are in charge of managing resources while the regional commanders fight wars. In World War II, on the other hand, each service fought its own war, with limited coordination and occasionally painful consequences. Goldwater-Nichols was intended to solve that problem, and the Chinese have decided to try to solve it, too.

The three largest banks in the US--Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo--disclosed that the number of delinquent corporate loans increased by 67% in Q1. JPMorgan's delinquent corporate loans increased by 50% to $2.21 billion. Bank of America's delinquent loans increased 32% to $1.6 billion. Wells Fargo's delinquent loans are up by 64%, to $3.97 billion.

From a book review: Uber is a shining example of creative destruction - in particular, in this case destroying not only an older, established way of serving consumers but, more importantly, destroying the government-granted monopoly privileges that that older, established way enjoyed.
Douglas Rushkoff, however, is unimpressed with Uber.  In his new book, Throwing Rocks at the Google Bus, Rushkoff alleges that the true monopolist is Uber, the success of which "involves destroying the dozens or hundreds of independent taxi companies in the markets it serves."  It is significant that in this book Rushkoff never mentions the entry restrictions and other government-granted privileges that protect traditional taxicab owners from competition. He apparently does not think that is monopolistic behavior.

AAAAAaaaaannnnnnndddddd.....a graph:
Chart of the Day


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