Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Reverie

The more uncivilized the man, the surer he is that he knows precisely what is right and what is wrong....The truly civilized man is always skeptical and tolerant, in this field as in all others. His culture is based on "I am not too sure." -H.L. Mencken, writer, editor, and critic (1880-1956)



Keats wanted his gravestone in Rome to read "Here lies one whose name was writ in water." Instead his executors wrote, "This Grave contains all that was Mortal, of a YOUNG ENGLISH POET Who, on his Death Bed, in the Bitterness of his Heart at the Malicious Power of his Enemies, Desired these Words to be engraven on his Tomb Stone."
Shelley said it was not tuberculous that killed him but his talentless critics.
Keats's girlfriend, Fanny Brawne, protested that this fable of his over-sensitivity gave Keats "a weakness of character that only belonged to his ill-health."
Byron dismissed the thesis with this in Don Juan:

"'Tis strange the mind, that very fiery particle,
Should let itself be snuffed out by an Article."


 
A summary of Tobias Renkin’s, Claire Montialoux’s, and Michael Siegenthaler’s  study on the minimum wage: We study the impact of increases in local minimum wages on the dynamics of prices in local grocery stores in the US during the 2001-2012 period. We find a significant impact of increasing minimum wages on prices in grocery stores. Our baseline estimate of the minimum wage elasticity of grocery prices is 0.02. This magnitude is consistent with a full pass-through of cost increases into prices. We show that price adjustments occur mostly in the months following the passage of minimum wage legislation rather than at the actual implementation of higher minimum wages. This forward-looking pattern of price adjustments is qualitatively consistent with pricing models that feature nominal rigidities. We find no differential price effect for products consumed by poorer and richer households, and no evidence for demand effects. Our results suggest that consumers rather than firms bear the cost of minimum wage increases. Moreover, poor households are most negatively affected by the price response. Price increases in grocery stores alone offset at least 10% of the nominal income gains of the poorest households.





In 1882 Anthony Trollope died. The recent commemorative plaque placed in Poets' Corner is inscribed with the last sentence from Trollope's posthumously-published Autobiography: "Now I stretch out my hand, and from the further shore I bid adieu to all who have cared to read any among the many words that I have written." The "many words" amount to forty-seven novels, all still in print and most selling well.



But the genuinely useful light that economics sheds does not fall on the economizing process; it illuminates the process of exchange.  Just about everyone knows how to economize, and does so effectively.  What people do not know and what economics can explain for them is how millions of economizing people, each one pursuing his or her own interest, manage to cooperate effectively despite the fact that they are all substantially ignorant of what others want or can do.  The fundamental problem of economics is not so much scarcity as a multitude of interdependent projects that somehow have to be coordinated. --Heyne.
This is probably not for academic or bureaucratic readers who will certainly volunteer for the job of coordination.





Who is....Stella Penn Pechanac?


But why are people in China sending some random woman in Pennsylvania free hair ties? Why would anyone put in the time, money, and effort to send a stranger on the other side of the world free stuff?
It’s called brushing.
Chinese agents shipping ridiculous amounts of hair ties to McGeehan is merely an unscrupulous way for them to fraudulently boost sales and obtain positive feedback for their clients' products on e-commerce sites.
Basically, a "brushing" firm somehow got ahold of McGeehan’s name and address — she imagines this happened from placing legitimate orders on AliExpress, the international wing of China’s Alibaba — and then created user profiles for “her” on the e-commerce sites that they wish to have higher sales ratings and favorable reviews on. They then shop for orders via the fake account, compare prices, and mimic everything an actual customer would do, before finally making a purchase from their client's store. When delivery is confirmed, they then leave positive reviews that appear to the e-commerce platform as "verified."
Due to the unbalanced pricing policies of the United Postal Union and subsidies from the U.S. Postal Service, it costs people in China virtually nothing to ship small packages to the U.S. That, combined with the super cheap price they pay for the junk they ship, makes brushing a quick and cost effective way to move up the sales rankings -- which means everything for e-commerce merchants.


In a new study,  McKinsey says massive government intervention will be required to hold societies together against the ravages of labor disruption over the next 13 years. Up to 800 million people—including a third of the work force in the U.S. and Germany—will be made jobless by 2030, the study says.

The economy of most countries will eventually replace the lost jobs, the study says, but many of the unemployed will need considerable help to shift to new work, and salaries could continue to flatline. "It's a Marshall Plan size of task," Michael Chui, lead author of the McKinsey report, tells Axios.

In the eight-month study, the McKinsey Global Institute, the firm's think tank, found that almost half of those thrown out of work—375 million people, comprising 14% of the global work force—will have to find entirely new occupations, since their old one will either no longer exist or need far fewer workers. Chinese will have the highest such absolute numbers—100 million people changing occupations, or 12% of the country's 2030 work force


Golden oldie:
http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2013/06/cab-thoughts-62213.html

Champagne, Prosecco, and cava are the three best known sparking wines. Champagne is from the Pinot Noir (ablanc de noirs is a Champagne made predominantly from Pinot Noir grapes), Pinot Meunier, or Chardonnay (blanc de blanc is made from Chardonnay), and is most often a blend of all three. Prosecco is made in the Veneto region of Italy (the same region that gave us the glorious Aperol spritz), from a varietal of grape called Glera. Cava is usually made with a few obscure grape varietals —Macabeu, Parellada, and Xarello—though it can also be made from Chardonnay or Pinot grapes.
Amazon plans a Lord of the Rings prequel.

A great quote from someone: "YOU, are NOT Wall Street’s client... YOU are the CONSUMER of the products sold FOR Wall Street’s clients..."
And another: "As Google, Facebook and the CIA are ever more entwined, these companies become so important to what ‘the spooks’ consider the interests of the nation that they will become mutually protective...The world has never seen such technologies. We are simply not prepared for any of this."

If you want a hair-raising experience, look up the murder of a girl named Maria Reyes by the MS-13 gang. Civilization is fragile and occasionally needs vigorous defense.


From a letter from the President of Wesleyan University:
Every dollar spent from the endowment to deliver an education reduces the cost paid by students and their parents. I fear that at many schools, the endowment tax will turn out to be a tax on financial aid—it, and other provisions in the bill, would make colleges and universities like ours less financially secure and drive up costs at a time when affordability is a critical challenge.
This is a fluid situation. There is much at stake in this bill, directly and indirectly, for our campus community and all who care about Wesleyan’s future – and the future of higher education. Students and families should be aware that some proposals, particularly those in the House version of tax reform, would eliminate the student loan interest deduction (increasing the tax burden on those who must borrow to pay for college); end Wesleyan’s ability to issue tax exempt debt (impacting the university’s financial health); and tax the tuition benefit enjoyed by Wesleyan employees.

Circa 1300,  the word “girl” meant a young child of either sex. A “boy” was a male servant. Don't tell the guy who wrote Sapiens; he'll do a new book.

David Poisson, a popular French national ski team veteran and former Olympian, was killed in a training crash near Calgary, Alberta. Poisson, 35, was a World Cup bronze medalist in 2013 and competed in both the Vancouver and Sochi Winter Olympics. Hoping to qualify for the PyeongChang Games in February, he was training for World Cup races in North America in the resort of Nakiska and, according to Royal Canadian Mounted Police, crashed through safety netting after catching an edge. He struck a tree and died at the scene.

The Soviet Union lost about 27 million soldiers and civilians in WW11— about 60 times more than America lost in the war.
Remember, Stalin was responsible for some 20 million Russian deaths through forced farm collectivization, planned famine, show trials and purges, and the murders of his own Red Army troops which he did without Nazi help.

Raised during a time of prosperity to become doctors and lawyers and engineers, alumni from an elite Caracas high school are abandoning their homeland. They are among the two million who have left after the Hugo Chávez revolution ushered in economic collapse and a crackdown on democracy. (wsj)


steeleydock.blogspot.com
“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.” – H. L. Mencken A big Full Moon will rise at sun...




There is an editorial on the Saudi changes seen in the light, not of terrorist or religious struggle, but as an effort to drag the U.S. into permanent conflict with Iran and thus permanent presence in the Middle East to support the Saudis. It has the wonderful title: Saudi Arabia Wants to Fight Iran to the Last American.

Stella Penn Pechanac has been accused of working as an operative of corporate-investigation firm Black Cube and gathering information on critics of Harvey Weinstein, U.S. insurer AmTrust Financial, and now, a Canadian private-equity firm. (wsj) Here is a link to my highly reliable news source, well regarded by the Robinsons: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5064027/Israeli-military-vet-duped-Rose-McGowan-revealed.html
www.dailymail.co.uk
Stella Penn, an operative at Israeli intelligence firm Black Cube bluffed her way into meetings with Rose McGowan and journalists.


The only thing that seems to be at work in protecting us from our enemies is their incompetence. I watched the Elizabeth Smart story the other night and the police at one point were actually called to the library in town because the librarian saw her sitting there with the kidnapper. The cops arrived but did not see the girl's face because she was veiled and her kidnapper said it was against their religion for her to be seen by a man. A hard-boiled cop accepted that and left. Left. She was eventually found because some of the investigators broke protocol. But the cops were really good in giving the family lie detector tests. And protecting wacko religious rights.

In the winter of 1942-43 the Soviet Red Army surrounded  and destroyed a huge invading German army at the city of Stalingrad on the Volga River. Nearly 300,000 of Germany's best soldiers would never return home. The  battle for the city saw the complete annihilation of the attacking German 6th Army. It marked the turning point of World War II. The battle was part of a renewed German effort in 1942 to drive southward toward the Caucasus Mountains, to capture the huge Soviet oil fields. Russia had already suffered some 6 million combat casualties during the first 16 months of Germany's invasion.

The Pirates fired Rene Gayo, their longtime director of Latin American scouting.
Gayo will depart when his contract expires next month. (He apparently is suing them in retaliation.)
Citing sources, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Gayo violated MLB's rules by taking a kickback from a Mexican Summer League team several years ago for the sale of at least one player to the Pirates.
The Pirates severed ties with Gayo after learning he was the target of an MLB investigation.
Outfielders Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are among the players he scouted and brought into the organization.
The documentary “Pelotero,” released in 2009, cast a shadow on Gayo's recruiting methods as he tried to sign teen-aged slugger Miguel Sano out of the Dominican Republic. The film appeared to show Gayo bullying Sano's family about the player's true age. (They lost him to the Twins.)



Krauthammer is apparently really ill. Had a major surgical procedure and is just out of the ICU.

Mona Charen has a sensible, readable article on Bill Clinton and his implications. First she starts with this observation: 
"In 1983, two congressmen, one a Democrat and the other a Republican, were censured by the House. Both had admitted to having affairs with 17-year-old pages. The Democrat was Gerry Studds, who represented a liberal Massachusetts district. His relationship had been with a young man. He admitted to a "very serious error in judgment," but seemed to imply that he was owed more latitude because he was gay. "It is not a simple task for any of us to meet adequately the obligations of either public office or private life, let alone both," Studds said in an address to the House, "but these challenges are made substantially more complex when one is, as I am, both an elected public official and gay." He was reelected six more times and retired voluntarily in 1997. The Republican, Daniel Crane, represented a conservative Illinois district. His constituents sent him packing the following year, despite his apology and request for forgiveness."
Then she says this: "Bill Clinton's shamelessness — and his party's acquiescence in it — corrupted our culture in profound ways. What we choose to shame or overlook determines what kind of society we are. We didn't want to hold him to account, and so we told ourselves convenient lies, such as that it "was just sex." It wasn't. It was classic harassment, and assault, and abuse of power, and perjury. But his worst transgression was refusing to acknowledge our unwritten code of honor. If he had done the right thing and resigned, he would have taken the disgrace on his own back, where it belonged. By brazening it out, he made all of us complicit in it. His refusal to resign said, "I'm an abusive pig, and you are a country of abusive pigs if you permit me to remain in office.""
 

In 1532, Pizarro caught the Incan king, Atahualpa.  Vicente de Valverde, a friar traveling with Pizarro, met with Atahualpa and 5000 soldiers to persuade him  to convert and accept Charles V as sovereign while Pizarro lay in wait. Atahualpa angrily refused, prompting Valverde to give the signal for Pizarro to open fire. Trapped in tight quarters, the panicking Incan soldiers made easy prey for the Spanish. Pizarro’s men slaughtered the 5,000 Incans in just an hour. The Spanish suffered one hand injury.



AAAAAAaaaaannnnnnndddddd......a graph:

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