Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Reverie

“Someone pointed out that blaming economic crises on “greed” is like blaming plane crashes on gravity. Certainly, planes wouldn’t crash if it wasn’t for gravity. But when thousands of planes fly millions of miles every day without crashing, explaining why a particular plane crashed because of gravity gets you nowhere. Neither does talking about “greed,” which is constant like gravity.”--Sowell









Which will be the most healthful community—that in which agents who perform their functions badly, immediately suffer by the withdrawal of public patronage; or that in which such agents can be made to suffer only through an apparatus of meetings, petitions, polling-booths, parliamentary divisions, cabinet-councils, and red-tape documents? Is it not an absurdly utopian hope that men will behave better when correction is far removed and uncertain than when it is near at hand and inevitable? Yet this is the hope which most political schemers unconsciously cherish. Listen to their plans, and you find that just what they propose to have done, they assume the appointed agents will do. That functionaries are trustworthy is their first postulate. Doubtless could good officers be ensured, much might be said for officialism; just as despotism would have its advantages could we ensure a good despot.--someone

Who is...Matt Bai?




One of the formulas for calculating GDP says (in a simplified form) that GDP = expenditures by residents + exports – imports. These last two terms may look like “net exports” but this is just a statistical artefact. Imports are subtracted in the formula for the only reason that that are inadvertently captured in the estimate the statisticians obtain for the expenditures by residents, and have to be removed because GDP is domestic production. This does not mean that imports are deducted from GDP, but that they are not part of it.--Lemieux



AAAaaaannnnnddddd....a graph:

If you’re unfortunate enough to be shopping for a new washing machine, you can thank the Trump tariffs on imported washing machines, washing machine parts, steel and aluminum for the largest three-month price increase — 16.4% from February to May this year — in the 40-year history of the BLS series for Major Appliances: Laundry Equipment that started in January 1978



Satire from the Babylon Bee:


PORTLAND, OR—According to reports from Portland State University, political science professor and outspoken socialist Brett Sanderson will refuse to accept any further salary, in order to free himself from the oppressive shackles of the capitalist system.

Sanderson told reporters he looks forward to the freedom he will experience as he breaks loose from the bonds of private ownership and personal profit, openly sharing his knowledge with the student body, without pay. “The insight I have gained through my personal study does not belong to me; it belongs to the collective,” the professor explained. “What right do I have to demand personal compensation, when the socialism I espouse demands I freely share my knowledge with its common owners, the people? Just knowing I contribute my fair share to the means of production is compensation enough.”

“I choose to be free from the oppression of a biweekly paycheck. It’s not really mine anyway,“ he added. He further stated that while previous attempts to accept no salary have resulted in professors blowing through their life savings and living in poverty, those examples “weren’t real socialism.”

At publishing time, Sanderson was spotted chastising a student for parking in his parking space reserved for professors only.



In a new report, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), an industry research and advocacy group, says that the debts of some "emerging market" countries (Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina) seem vulnerable to roll-over risk: the inability to replace expiring loans. In 2018 and 2019, about $1 trillion of dollar-denominated emerging-market debt is maturing, says the IIF.
They might be particularly vulnerable to a squeeze initiated by trade war problems.






Medical device approval is tightening in Europe, loosening in the U.S..
Research volume follows the regulation relaxation, so work here will rise.
There has been a noticeable shift away from the U.S. and its stringent FDA policies by the research community over the last years.



Most legal immigrants do not have access to means-tested welfare for their first five years here with few exceptions that are mostly determined on the state level and funded with state taxes.  Illegal immigrants don’t have access at all—except for emergency Medicaid.


Golden oldie:




The CIA pick is being attacked for pursuing what appears to be ugly, stupid U.S. policy. But it is our policy, not theirs.
How we are able to abstract ourselves from these policies is beyond me.


New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, a Democrat who had taken a high-profile role in the fight against sexual misconduct, was allegedly physically violent with four women he was romantically involved with, according to their accounts published i The New Yorker. The story is really awful.
Hypocrisy and irony aside, what were reasonable women doing with this guy? One of these girls was an old flame of Salman Rushdie.



In a poll conducted by SSRS, 57% say they have a favorable impression of Melania Trump, up from 47% in January. This is the biggest number she has experienced in any CNN polling, and higher than any favorability rating earned by President Donald Trump in CNN polling history going back to 1999.
It will not be long before the architects of popular opinion will see the need to reshape that. One version that  has emerged is that she actually has a double, which is to say she is not real.







The AP  reported gabapentin, a 25-year-old generic non-opioid drug “long seen as a low risk way to treat seizures, nerve pain and other ailments,” is “one of the most prescribed medications in the U.S.” The AP reported researchers “attribute the recent surge to tighter restrictions on opioid painkillers, which have left doctors searching for alternatives for their patients,” and the Food and Drug Administration “is now studying patterns of prescribing and illicit use of gabapentin"  and will soon share its findings.
The findings will be that people will use stuff that is available if the quality meds are not.





Caplan has written a book, The Case Against Education,  denigrating the value of higher education and stating that the value of college is that it signals employers--or grad schools--that the student has certain positive qualities. Caplan received a letter with this interesting question: You say that college is the best way to signal to an employer that you are intelligent, conscientious and conform to social norms. Another way would be to enlist in the military. He asks if there is any data on this.
A notion he does not consider apparently is that education degrees are being used as a proxy for intelligence tests which were ruled discriminatory by the Supreme Court.

While interest rates have been rising, it is clear the Fed wants to raise them higher. This will ripple through the economy--and have a significant impact on the interest paid on the national debt.
Is the Fed on our side?

Went to a meeting about the costs of medical care. Interestingly, insurers are steering patients to low cost providers they have identified. The medical community  in the know is secretly terrified of the big players with disruption histories like Amazon and Walmart. They do not know what they will do but, with health care a 3 trillion dollar industry, they know they will do something.
Importantly, health care growth does not occur in a vacuum; it is part of the GDP.  
Last year health care growth made up 33% of the country's economic growth. So controlling that growth will come at a cost.


The US Justice Department announced it had indicted a former CIA operative for spying for China, in a case that could be tied to the dramatic collapse of the CIA's China network eight years ago.


The last recession ended nine years ago.



California's Assembly Bill (AB) 3087: “The bill establishes an unelected Commission of nine individuals who are charged with setting physician and hospital rates for the entire commercial market in California. This Commission is funded in part through the use of physician licensing fees even though physicians are expressly prohibited from serving on the Commission. Physician licensing fees will also be appropriated to pay for the sponsors of the bill to lobby and receive witness fees to testify in front of this unelected commission.” (The California Medical Assn.'s comment)
Furthermore, the base rates for setting physician, health care provider, and hospital prices in the commercial insurance market would be based on a percentage of Medicare rates (which is not an appropriate benchmark for determining out-of-network payment) and would tie this to a global cap based on the state’s gross domestic product (GDP). If spending is capped, inevitably delivery of patient care would be rationed. There is a potential appeals process, but the same commission that sets rates would be in charge of the appeals. Finally, there would be a blanket prohibition on out-of-network payments.
The working word here is "unelected."

Reuters reports Walmart Inc. “said ... it would restrict initial acute opioid prescriptions to no more than a seven-day supply” as it aims to curb opioid abuse. Reuters adds, “The supply limit will begin within the next 60 days, the company said.”
The Hill  reports that the pharmacies will also “restrict the dosage to a maximum of 50 morphine milligram equivalents per day and, by Jan. 1, 2020, require e-prescriptions for controlled substances.”
So the doc can be bypassed?


CNN was behind TNT, Nickelodeon and Home & Garden in ratings for April. But they are very influential abroad and I think that disparity is responsible for a lot of the country's image problems.


Gina Haspel  nominated to be CIA chief and is under considerable pressure for her relationship with the "enhanced interrogation" techniques of the agency. 
Was such behavior rogue, or policy?


Matt Bai on the Correspondents Dinner:

"... the polling on Trump tells a fascinating story. A lot of people who say they support the president don’t especially like him, or admire his behavior, or agree with him on issues. But as long as every dumb thing he says makes us (and urban Democrats) jump up and down and rend our clothes and scream about the death of fact and the end of civilized society, they’re willing to overlook all that for a while.
I hear from readers all the time who say some version of this: Trump may not be great at governing, but if he’s making you feel less relevant and less powerful, then at least something’s going right.  A sizable bloc of voters reviles the political establishment, and no embodiment of that establishment looms larger on their screens than we do.

So the main problem with the White House Correspondents’ Dinner isn’t the glut of almost recognizable movie stars, or the ugly brand of partisan humor, or the ill-fitting tuxedos and carbon-fiber filet mignon. The problem is the showy display of vanity, pretension and tribalism that reinforces the worst idea of what political journalism is all about."
Very insightful and valuable. But it is difficult to convert the certain.

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