Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Lomborg, Heretic

“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.”--Orwell 

Mom feels better.
I'm still hacking but less severely.
Ned has a conference in Ohio and then will come here late this week.

George Leef: "Arum and Roksa found that a high percentage of college students make little or no progress intellectually during their years in school. But rather than concluding that many students just aren’t interested in college studies, Kirp blames the schools. That they allow this lack of learning to continue shows, he argues, that they don’t really care about their students.
I can’t agree. Our colleges and universities provide an environment in which any student can learn a great deal if he wants to, but which also allows students with minimal academic preparation and interest to coast along to their credentials."
 So the school factory, the diploma mill, the graduation inflation and the unsupervised lives of immature people on college campuses is the eighteen-year-old student's fault?
Is it right to take another's wealth that he has earned? Or inherited? If so, what can a government not take? What inherently can a man claim for his own? This is what the Founders were trying to define. 
Now Sen. Elizabeth Warren's net worth is $12 million; I would be willing to consider confiscating a politician's wealth.

A funny debate in Farnam where Jane Austen and Nietzsche meet in a bar: 
Defending her writing style, she says, "Giving readers a happy ending helps them digest the rest. If you tear everything apart and then have your characters die in misery, there is no hope for the reader. If you want them to change their thinking you must give them hope there is still time and a reason to make that change."

Half a century on, the nation’s mood is tinged with sadness stemming from the well-founded fear that America’s new, post-Great Society government is subverting America’s old character. This government’s agenda is a menu of temptations intended to change the nation’s social norms by making Americans comfortable with dependency.--Will. This is good stuff.

There is a theory that population growth and the development and use of carbon fuels liberated human labor and brains from subsistence agriculture. This allowed for the increase in products of intellectual development as well as decreasing agriculture land requirements.


In 1960, just 9 percent of U.S. children lived with one parent, and just 3 percent lived with either a non-parent relative or a non-relative. By 2019, the Census Bureau estimated that 26 percent of children lived with single parents (a figure that varies from Pew’s due to methodological differences), while just 4 percent lived with non-parent relatives or non-relatives. Today, about two-fifths of all births are to unmarried women. Although academics debate about causality, single parenting is strongly related to risk for poverty and lower educational attainment on the part of the child, as well as incarceration among boys and teenage pregnancy among girls.
The US fertility rate dropped for the fourth straight year in 2018, and has fallen approximately 15% since 2007, according to the National Center for Health Statistics – which reports that there were 59.1 births for every 1,000 women of childbearing age.           

On this day in 1903, Near Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, Orville and Wilbur Wright made the first successful flight in history of a self-propelled, heavier-than-air aircraft. Orville piloted the gasoline-powered, propeller-driven biplane, which stayed aloft for 12 seconds and covered 120 feet on its inaugural flight.                  

                            Lomborg, Heretic

This is from an old--very old--Guardian article on Bjorn Lomborg:
"Few statisticians can have inspired more passion than Bjørn Lomborg, the Danish academic who became famous as the author of the controversial (some would say contrarian) Skeptical Environmentalist, which set him up as perhaps the world's best-known critic of the dominant scientific view of global warming and the ensuing climate change.
Lomborg's prolific output has been almost matched by books rubbishing his work: critics have described him as selective, unprofessional and confused. Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the UN's climate change panel, has compared him to Adolf Hitler – for the statistical crime of treating human beings too much like numbers. (always telling, when you are compared to Hitler.)
Meanwhile, Time Magazine declared Lomborg one of the 100 most influential people in the world in 2004. The respected Cambridge University Press (CUP) has published many of his books in the UK and the US..."
Lomborg is a harsh thinker and his approach to global warming is to fix it. Here are some of his "adultered" observations:

Even if all 4.5 billion flights this year were stopped from taking off, and the same happened every year until 2100, temperatures would be reduced by just 0.054 degrees, using mainstream climate models — equivalent to delaying climate change by less than one year by 2100. Nor will we solve global warming by giving up meat. Going vegetarian is difficult — one US survey shows 84 percent fail, most in less than a year. Those who succeed will only reduce their personal emissions by about 2 percent. And electric cars are not the answer. Globally, there are just 5 million fully electric cars on the road. Even if this climbs massively to 130 million in 11 years, the International Energy Agency finds CO₂ equivalent emissions would be reduced by a mere 0.4 percent globally.
Put simply: The solution to climate change cannot be found in personal changes in the homes of the middle classes of rich countries.
The real reason for this: Most of the 21st-century emissions are not being emitted by the rich world. Indeed, if every single rich country stopped all CO₂ emissions today and for the rest of the century — no plane trips, no meat consumption, no gasoline-powered cars, no heating or cooling with fossil fuels, no artificial fertilizer — the difference would be just 0.72 degrees°F by end-of-century. 
This is the problem with the Kyoto and Paris agreements; everybody who has thought on this obvious problem knows this and rejects the dramatic solutions aimed at the West. (me)

The West is a good target because it cares and can be bullied. (My notion, not his.) And the Left hates its sociopolitical structure and success. (Me, again.)

Lomborg argues that the only reasonable answer here is innovation.
The Copenhagen Consensus Center asked 27 of the world’s top climate economists to examine policy options for responding to climate change. This analysis showed that the best investment is in green-energy R&D. For every dollar spent, $11 of climate damages would be avoided.
He ends with this: "On the sidelines of the 2015 Paris climate summit, more than 20 world leaders made a promise to double green-energy research and development by 2020. But spending has only inched up from $16 billion in 2015 to $17 billion in 2018. This is a broken promise that matters.
After 30 years of pursuing the wrong solution to climate change, we need to change the script."

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