Lies and Policy

On this day:

624
Battle of Badr: a key battle between Muhammad’s army, the new followers of Islam, and the Quraish of Mecca. The Muslims won this battle, known as the turning point of Islam, which took place in the Hejaz region of western Arabia.
1781
William Herschel discovers Uranus.
1865
American Civil War: The Confederate States of America agree to the use of African American troops.
1881
Alexander II of Russia is killed near his palace when a bomb is thrown at him. (Gregorian date: it was March 1 in the Julian calendar then in use in Russia.)
1921
Mongolia, under Baron Roman Ungern von Sternberg, declares its independence from China.
1938
Anschluss of Austria to the Third Reich.
1954
Battle of Điện Biên Phủ: Viet Minh forces attack the French.
1964
American Kitty Genovese is murdered, reportedly in view of neighbors who did nothing to help her, prompting research into the bystander effect.
1969
Apollo program: Apollo 9 returns safely to Earth after testing the Lunar Module.

***

“Europe can no longer be a custodian for the old-world order” and needs a “more realistic and interest-driven foreign policy”--Ursula von der Leyen

***

Not developing our own shale gas reserves has a huge opportunity cost.
It got a lot huger this week--Ridley

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The Bank of England has confirmed Sir Winston Churchill will be scrapped from banknotes and replaced with images of wildlife.

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Is trade across the borders of Ohio and Pennsylvania economically distinct from trade between Ohio and Alaska? France?

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The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has issued a sharp rebuke to the US government over its decision to temporarily lift sanctions on the sale of Russian oil in the wake of sharply rising energy prices, saying the decision was wrong.

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Lies and Policy

Chris Coyne recently reviewed The Kissinger Tapes: Inside His Secretly Recorded Phone Conversations. One snippet:

"Since Kissinger did not intend his transcripts to be public, the collection is a window both into him as a person and into the operations of the U.S. national security state. Four themes stand out.

The first is the sheer prevalence of systematic deception. For Kissinger, lies weren’t a strategic tool limited to selective uses in international statecraft. They appear to have been part of his personal makeup. Wells notes that he was “a habitual and easy liar.” Throughout the transcripts, he deceives his foreign counterparts, his colleagues, and the media."

The border is secure, the President is sharp as a tack, 1619, Anna Anderson is Princess Anastasia, “Russians Hungry But not Starving,” there would be no war if the Sudeten lands were turned over to Germany, the Chernobyl evacuation was precautionary and temporary,“ Saddam Hussein possessed biological and chemical weapons of mass destruction,” American boys will not be asked to fight an Asian war...

We poor Americans are inundated by the free speech avalanche of self-serving mendacity

Lies are Procrustes' solution to stubborn truths. As with Kissinger, they have become part of our marrow.

Trade

On this day:

1994
The Church of England ordains its first female priests.
2009
Financier Bernard Madoff plead guilty in New York to scamming $18 billion, the largest in Wall Street history.
2011
A reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant melts and explodes and releases radioactivity into the atmosphere a day after Japan’s earthquake.

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"If Patrick Henry thought that taxation without representation was bad, he should see how bad it is with representation."--The Old Farmer's Almanac

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Shumer says the Voter ID is actually an ICE conspiracy!

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Whole Foods in New York has a 'holding pen' for wealthy shoplifters, according to a funny article in NR. 'For some, a little thieving is their way to “protest” corporate America. For others, it’s an expression of the economic anxiety that accompanies living in “an unaffordable city.” DeLigter deemed it “a form of collective nihilism.”'...'The biggest revelation here is that Whole Foods’ security guards seem to evince “glee” while doing their jobs. Who wouldn’t? The opportunity to impose consequences on people who appear to have avoided them deep into adulthood isn’t an opportunity that comes around every day.'

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Trump says the Iran "excursion" will keep us out of war.

***

David Bossie was exposed for allegedly raking in $18.5 million for an unauthorized group called the Presidential Coalition, which reportedly fooled senior citizens into thinking they were helping Trump-aligned candidates.
A large chunk of the funds went to buy books he co-authored with Lewandowski, though the former campaign manager was not directly implicated.

***

The Brits are getting rid of non-royals on their banknotes in favor of animals.
The monarch has appeared on Bank of England notes since 1960, and will continue to do so in the future. Images of historical characters, starting with William Shakespeare, were first seen on the reverse side a decade later.
The current crop on circulating notes, in ascending order of note value, are Sir Winston Churchill, Jane Austen, JMW Turner and Alan Turing.
The Bank found itself mired in controversy owing to the absence of any women, apart from Queen Elizabeth II on notes in 2013. There has never been a historical figure who is black or from an ethnic minority background on the Bank's notes.

***

Trade

Trade is equal exchange. Both parties give up something they do not want as badly as what they receive. Trade is an agreement that makes both parties happy, not a "negotiation" where on party is at a disadvantage. Trade is a tie petween wqual partners.

Trade is not just about exchanging value; it's about building relationships and trust. Trust is earned and developed over time through agreed-upon rules and market access. Therefore, it goes beyond simple transactions, creating an environment of civil order—benign, dependable relationships. It's a social atmosphere of well-intended order—a symphony of quality and cooperation.

What can upset the order? First, government intervention. The violinist is the vice-president's niece and should have a larger role. How about a drum solo? The rules change; the discussion distorts. Patronage and favors intrude. And imagine the bribery! The trust and stable trading field developed and nurtured over the years will slowly dissolve.

And what if the trade is twisted to exploit some national preconception, some state advantage? So trade was just a bargaining chip? That would overturn the table of careful trade-building and fairness.

Tariffs.

 

Iran Musing

On this day:

241 BC
First Punic War: Battle of the Aegates Islands – The Romans sink the Carthaginian fleet, bringing the First Punic War to an end.
1629
Charles I of England dissolves the Parliament, beginning the eleven-year period known as the Personal Rule.
1762
French Huguenot Jean Calas, who had been wrongly convicted of killing his son, dies after being tortured by authorities; the event inspired Voltaire to begin a campaign for religious tolerance and legal reform.
1804
Louisiana Purchase: In St. Louis, Missouri, a formal ceremony is conducted to transfer ownership of the Louisiana Territory from France to the United States.
1814
Napoleon I of France is defeated at the Battle of Laon in France.
1831
The French Foreign Legion is established by King Louis-Philippe to support his war in Algeria.
1848
The Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo is ratified by the United States Senate, ending the Mexican-American War.
1876
Alexander Graham Bell makes the first successful telephone call by saying “Mr. Watson, come here, I want to see you.”
1891
Almon Strowger, an undertaker in Topeka, Kansas, patents the Strowger switch, a device which led to the automation of telephone circuit switching.
1906
The Courrières mine disaster, Europe’s worst ever, kills 1099 miners in Northern France.
1922
Mahatma Gandhi is arrested in India, tried for sedition, and sentenced to six years in prison, only to be released after nearly two years for an appendicitis operation.
1945
The U.S. Army Air Force firebombs Tokyo, and the resulting firestorm kills more than 100,000 people, mostly civilians.
1952
Fulgencio Batista leads a successful coup in Cuba and appoints himself as the “provisional president”.
1959
Tibetan uprising: Fearing an abduction attempt by China, 300,000 Tibetans surround the Dalai Lama’s palace to prevent his removal
1980
Madeira School headmistress Jean Harris shoots and kills Scarsdale diet doctor Herman Tarnower
2006
The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter arrives at Mars.

***“

"It does not sound crazy to a Silicon Valley executive that maybe they could be in charge instead of you,” AI alignment researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky warned politicians. “If they actually could control superintelligence, they’d discard you like used toilet paper.”
Great. Politicians as an abused group.

***

On 13–14 October 1761, one of the Calas sons, Marc-Antoine, was found dead on the ground floor of the family's home. Rumors had it that Jean Calas had killed his son because he intended to convert to Catholicism. When interrogated, the family initially claimed that Marc-Antoine had been killed by a murderer. Then they declared that they had found Marc-Antoine dead, hanged. Because suicide was considered a heinous crime against oneself, and the dead bodies of suicides were defiled, they had arranged for their son's suicide to look like a murder. The law thought the boy had been killed because of anti-Catholic fanaticism.trial/torture description is quite grim.
French philosopher Voltaire, after initial suspicions of anti-Catholic fanaticism were dispelled by his investigations, began a campaign to get Calas's sentence overturned, claiming that Marc-Antoine had committed suicide because of gambling debts and not being able to finish his university studies due to his denomination.

Voltaire's efforts were successful, and King Louis XV received the family and had the sentence annulled in 1764.

***

Two famous brothers who worked as real estate brokers have been convicted of drugging and raping dozens of women over the course of decades.
Tal Alexander, 39, and Oren Alexander, 38, rose to prominence from their sales of luxury real-estate properties in New York and Miami. Along with a third brother Alon, 38, a jury found all three guilty of sex trafficking by a jury in New York.

***

Is European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen overreaching?

The diplomats who spoke to POLITICO argued that von der Leyen’s flurry of tweets and conversations with Gulf leaders did not formally represent EU foreign policy positions. Critics also voiced skepticism about what von der Leyen, who has no military means at her disposal and has no mandate to shape EU-wide foreign policy positions, could be offering Gulf states under missile and drone attack from Iran.

“What exactly is she promising when she says we will support them?” asked Loiseau. “Who is ‘we’? For now, the support is the Charles de Gaulle [French aircraft carrier], Rafale jets in Abu Dhabi, and defense agreements with some countries.”

“What we’re seeing is role-play with nothing behind it,” said Loiseau, who belongs to French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party. (Politico)

Ambition fills any vacuum.

***

Iran Musing

What was the impact of the B-2 bombing? Wasn't it supposed to make another attack unnecessary? What was the revelation that made this attack a next and necessary step? Have you ever heard of the "conventional-weapons-shield-of-nuclear-weapons thesis" the Americans used to justify it?

An unsubstantiated theory, i.e., out of whole cloth: Israel, for some reason (and their intel is very good), had decided to attack Iran again, and the Americans thought the appearance and power of the two together created a better public relations picture and gave them the appearance of control. America followed them in. (Warning: Made up.)

Iran had their own strange war moment. When it was clear they were getting clobbered, Iran began to attack everybody, old friends and foes alike.

There is a theory, the Sampson Theory, stating that Israel has no minor fight. Every struggle threatens their very existence. Any vulnerability was a step toward their eventual destruction. Every fight was a fight to the death. There would never be a compromise; there would never be a standing-eight count. They would never sue for peace.

And if it was clear that events had gone against them, that the tide was running in their enemy's favor, they, like Sampson, would pull the whole building down around their ears. They would put their 53 or so nukes in the air against every living target they could reach and turn the Middle East--and its oil--into a lifeless, useless husk of a place.

Perhaps that is what Iran planned too.

Procrustean Ideology

On this day:
141 BC
Liu Che, posthumously known as Emperor Wu of Han, assumes the throne over the Han Dynasty of China.
1566
David Rizzio, private secretary to Mary, Queen of Scots, is murdered in the Palace of Holyroodhouse, Edinburgh, Scotland.
1765
After a campaign by the writer Voltaire, judges in Paris posthumously exonerate Jean Calas of murdering his son. Calas had been tortured and executed in 1762 on the charge, though his son may have actually committed suicide.
1796
Napoléon Bonaparte marries his first wife, Joséphine de Beauharnais.
1862
American Civil War: The USS Monitor and the CSS fight to a draw in the Battle of Hampton Roads, the first battle between two ironclad warships.
1916
Pancho Villa leads nearly 500 Mexican raiders in an attack against Columbus, New Mexico.
1945
The Bombing of Tokyo by the United States Army Air Forces began, one of the most destructive bombing raids in history.
1961
Sputnik 9 successfully launches, carrying a human dummy nicknamed Ivan Ivanovich, and demonstrating that the Soviet Union was ready to begin human spaceflight.
1977
The Hanafi Muslim Siege: In a thirty-nine-hour standoff, armed Hanafi Muslims seize three Washington, D.C., buildings, killing two and taking 149 hostage.
2011
Space Shuttle Discovery makes its final landing after 39 flights.

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We suffer from the growth that comes from suffering.--thomas and wang

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AI update. Entrepreneurs are recreating dead and absent relatives for wedding videos and other occasions. Very popular in India

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The US is the only major destination in the world to see a decline in international travellers in 2025. So far, 2026 is getting worse.

Foreign airlines are cutting the number of US-bound flights. Disney warns of “international visitation headwinds.”

***

Pancho Villa was an occasional revolutionary and politician who played himself in a Hollywood movie. He was assassinated by, presumably, his political opponents and is alleged to have said to his bodyguard as he died, "Don't let it end like this. Tell them I said something."

***

Procrustean Ideology

A new entrant on the Red Carpet of Big, Poorly-thought-out Ideas: The Center for American Progress, a prominent left-leaning think tank that often cultivates policy ideas the Democratic Party later adopts, proposed a two-year freeze on the prices of 24 food items, such as strawberries and ground beef.

Grocers would voluntarily agree to cap food prices in exchange for lower credit card transaction fees, according to the proposal, which was written by a group led by Jared Bernstein. Mr. Bernstein might have a peripheral thought process, but astonishingly, he is not a peripheral guy.  He chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers during Joe Biden’s presidency.

This notion would, in effect, force credit card companies to absorb the cost of subsidizing food purchases. A draft of the proposal stated that the Federal Reserve could require credit card companies to do so through its regulatory oversight, though that provision was apparently removed after questions from The Washington Post.

It is not clear how else the government might persuade credit card companies to foot the bill, nor how many grocers would agree. Nor is it clear how the unwavering economic law that price controls create shortages would be expressed, as a shortage of food or of credit.

One wonders how someone who thinks like this could become in any way influential. But calling yourself a "think tank" shields you from a lot of sensible scrutiny.

Sunday/The End of History

On this day:

1618
Johannes Kepler discovers the third law of planetary motion.
1722
The Safavid Empire of Iran is defeated by an army from Afghanistan at The Battle of Gulnabad, pushing Iran into anarchy.
1736
Nader Shah, founder of the Afsharid dynasty, is crowned Shah of Iran.
1775
An anonymous writer, thought by some to be Thomas Paine, publishes “African Slavery in America”, the first article in the American colonies calling for the emancipation of slaves and the abolition of slavery.
1917
International Women’s Day protests in St. Petersburg mark the beginning of the February Revolution (so named because it was February on the Julian calendar)
1920
The Arab Kingdom of Syria, the first modern Arab state to come into existence, is established.

***

Keplar's three laws state that:

--The orbit of a planet is an ellipse with the Sun at one of the two foci.
--A line segment joining a planet and the Sun sweeps out equal areas during equal intervals of time.
--The square of a planet's orbital period is proportional to the cube of the length of the semi-major axis of its orbit.

***


More than 7,000 Middle East flights were cancelled between Saturday and Tuesday alone, stranding hundreds of thousands of passengers in what aviation experts are calling the worst global travel disruption since Covid grounded the world.

Dubai International Airport, normally the world's busiest international hub with millions of passengers transiting annually, sits empty.

Private jet brokers report charging up to $350,000 for flights from Riyadh to Europe.

***

The Supreme Court ruled in a landmark case that AI-generated art does not qualify for copyright protection.

***

At 4:52 p.m. Wednesday, with eight minutes left before Montana’s candidate filing deadline closed, Kurt Alme walked into the Secretary of State’s office and filed for the United States Senate.

He had never run for office. He had no campaign. He had no publicly released platform. He had no announcement, no press conference, no town halls, no conversations with voters. What he had — the only thing he needed — was Steve Daines on the phone and Donald Trump at the ready on Truth Social.

That is how Montana’s next Republican nominee for U.S. Senate was chosen. Not by you. By them. (Just in case anybody out there thinks the Republicans chose differently than the party that chose Hilary and Kamala.)

***

Sunday/The End of History

Today's gospel contains the focused drama of a short story; it is a virtual advertisement for the quality of the writing in the New Testament.
In it, Christ meets the Samaritan woman at Jacob's Well.

In this most social of places, she is alone, as is He. He asks her for a drink of water. And they talk. And something is wrong.

Just a few paragraphs, and there is so much going on. She is a Samaritan-- of Jewish heritage yet disdained by the Jews--at a well originally owned by a Jewish patriarch of the Old Testament. It is noon, the heat is at its height--why is she there at that time of day? And why alone?

She is uncomfortable with a Jew--and a man--asking her for water. She begins to spar a bit with Him as to how worship should be performed. Christ asks her to bring her husband; she says she has none, Christ agrees with her yet corrects her: She has had five and her current man is not her husband.

Now it is clear. The woman goes for water at the worst time of the day to avoid the criticism of the others; she is alone because she prefers it. She is an outcast among outcasts.

But Christ does not press her on her social circumstances. At the ancient Well, there is no history. There is no lecture, no scolding, no offer of forgiveness. And as we learn more of her, she learns more of Him.

The entire story--indeed her eventual conversion--is one of coming to knowledge, to understanding. And the transcendence of History.

SatStats

On this day:

321
Emperor Constantine I decrees that the dies Solis Invicti (sun-day) is the day of rest in the Empire.
1799
Napoleon Bonaparte captures Jaffa in Palestine and his troops proceed to kill more than 2,000 Albanian captives.
1850
Senator Daniel Webster gives his “Seventh of March” speech endorsing the Compromise of 1850 in order to prevent a possible civil war.
1876
Alexander Graham Bell is granted a patent for an invention he calls the telephone
1912
Roald Amundsen announces that his expedition had reached the South Pole on December 14, 1911.
1936
World War II (Prelude to): In violation of the Locarno Pact and the Treaty of Versailles, Germany reoccupies the Rhineland.
1945
World War II: American troops seize the Ludendorff Bridge over the Rhine River at Remagen.

1989
Iran and the United Kingdom break diplomatic relations after a row over Salman Rushdie and his controversial novel.
2007
The British House of Commons votes to make the upper chamber, the House of Lords, 100% elected.

***

True capitalism is grounded in private property, competitive markets, voluntary exchange, and the rule of law. It treats individuals as decision-makers in their own lives — not subjects of top-down control. It decentralizes power, rewards value creation, and invites experimentation, allowing people to say “yes” to opportunity without asking permission from bureaucrats or politicians.--Ginn
Which is to say it is both an outgrowth and an expression of freedom.

***

NYC First Lady Rama Duwaji showed support for far-left organizations applauding Hamas' Oct. 7th attacks.

***

Berkshire was a net seller of stock in the fourth quarter, meaning it sold more stock than it purchased. The company has now been a net seller in 13 straight quarters, which suggests Buffett has struggled to find attractive investments in the current market environment.

***



SatStats

The most landed-on property in Monopoly is Illinois Avenue. When players exit jail, the most common dice rolls (especially six to eight) funnel them there.

*

Between now and 2036, the CBO projects $94.6 trillion in federal spending against $70.2 trillion in revenue, a decade-long deficit of $24.4 trillion. Outlays reached 23.1 percent of GDP in 2025, nearly two full percentage points above the 50-year average, meaning annual spending growth is outpacing the economy itself. Debt held by the public is projected to hit 101 percent of GDP this year, which will surpass the post-WWII record of 106 percent by 2030, and climb to 120 percent by 2036.

*

Last week, Citrini Research projected a “human intelligence displacement spiral” caused by AI within two years.
But a recent survey of 6,000 chief executives across four countries found that they expect AI to cut employment by just 0.7 percent over the next three years

*

Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension.(study)

*

As a percentage of total book pages, Adam Smith has the highest share at 6.69%, beating out Ricardo (5.22%), Mill (3.83%), and Marx (4.36%). Just over 32% of all textbooks allocated most of their pages to Adam Smith, followed by Marx with 18.6%, Mill with 13.95%, and Ricardo with 11.3%. While interesting as a history of economic thought project, such an exercise isn’t merely amusing pedantry; it can provide insight into the types of contributions, research questions, and methodologies that have had the most enduring impact in economics. It may also inform future authors of history of economic textbooks.

*

Self-reported AI use at work: Democrats are consistently more likely than Republicans to report frequent use.

*

The New York Central once ran forty-two daily passenger trains between Buffalo and Cleveland, with the 187-mile trip taking three hours. Today, Amtrak’s Lake Shore Limited covers the same 187 miles in three and a half hours, if it’s on time, which it often isn’t. And the New York–Montreal run took nine hours in 1940; today’s Adirondack takes over thirteen.

*

Pensions cost the Brazilian government 10% of GDP. If no reforms are made by 2050, Brazil will spend more on pensions as a share of GDP than many richer and greyer countries… Though Brazil’s share of young people is similar to that in Chile or Mexico, its pension spending is already at Japan’s level. That is despite a modest reform in 2019 that introduced a minimum retirement age. The population is ageing rapidly. Without reform, its social-security deficit, or the shortfall between contributions and payments, is set to rise from 2% of GDP today to over 16% by 2060.

Brazil’s courts cost 1.3% of GDP —the second-most expensive in the world—mostly because of generous pensions. The typical soldier retires before turning 55 on a pension equivalent to their full salary.

*

Multiple studies have either shown that smartphone and social media use among teens has minimal effects on their mental health or none at all. As a 2024 review published by an American Psychological Association journal put it: “There is no evidence that time spent on social media is correlated with adolescent mental health problems.”

*

Across specifications, a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage increases robot adoption by roughly 8 percent relative to the mean. 

Is the minimum wage a Robot Employment Act?

*

Men and lesbians are vastly overrepresented in stand-up comedy.

Life and Its Absence

On this day:
1820
The Missouri Compromise is signed into law by President James Monroe. The compromise allows Missouri to enter the Union as a slave state, but makes the rest of the northern part of the Louisiana Purchase territory slavery-free.
1836
Texas Revolution: Battle of the Alamo – After a thirteen day siege by an army of 3,000 Mexican troops, the 187 Texas volunteers, including frontiersman Davy Crockett and colonel Jim Bowie, defending the Alamo are killed and the fort is captured.
1857
The Supreme Court of the United States rules in the Dred Scott v. Sandford case.
1869
Dmitri Mendeleev presents the first periodic table to the Russian Chemical Society.
1951
The trial of Ethel and Julius Rosenberg begins.
1970
Blast at Weather Underground safe house in Greenwich Village kills three.
1975
Algiers Accord: Iran and Iraq announce a settlement of their border dispute.
1975
For the first time, ever, the Zapruder film of the assassination of John F. Kennedy is shown in motion to a national TV audience by Robert J. Groden and Dick Gregory.

***

The national debt is a taxation without representation upon our future children. Put another way: It’s child abuse.--letter to the editor

***

RFK wants Dunkin' to prove its coffee is safe. That's impossible, and anyone running a scientific bureau should know that.

***

A recent study by the New York Federal Reserve concluded what many other studies have shown—that nearly all the economic burden from the Trump tariffs has fallen on U.S. firms and consumers.

***

In the 1930s, some of Joseph Stalin’s censors, who were more zealous than educated, reportedly forbade radio broadcasts of music by Franz Schubert, who died in 1828, for fear he might be a supporter of Stalin’s nemesis, Leon Trotsky, who was born in 1879.

***

Will Mullin get lip fillers?

***


Life and Its Absence

Youth see life as so hot, so intense, so expanding. They always struggle with the ultimate truth, that the universe is cold, indifferent, and winding down. 

Indeed, life is the outlier in the universe, the exception that gives it value.

The universe without life is math.


The Peace of Wild Things
by
Wendell Berry

When despair for the world grows in me
and I wake in the night at the least sound
in fear of what my life and my children’s lives might be,
I go and lie down where the wood drake
rests in his beauty on the water, and the great heron feeds.
I come into the peace of wild things
who do not tax their lives with forethought
of grief. I come into the presence of still water.
And I feel above me the day-blind stars
waiting with their light. For a time
I rest in the grace of the world, and am free.