"Critical state" is the point at which something triggers a change in the basic nature or character of the object or group. Earthquake. Landslide. Avalanche. Epidemic. Market crash. Revolution.
Mark Buchannan has a book out call "Ubiquity. Why Catastrophes Happen" in which he examines this notion. It is a heady topic in science that involves chaos and game theory but fearlessly these scientists apply their abstract science thinking to modern life.
In essence, as a stable state grows, the instability of the state grows, a very Minsky-like belief. "The collapse is fundamentally due to the unstable position; the instantaneous cause of the collapse is secondary." (Didier Sornette, a French geophysicist who wrote a book on money markets!)
So any non-static entity gradually builds its own instability. The triggering event is relatively minor in the equation but, as complexity grows, it is less predictable in timing and source. See this in terms of growing populations, growing technology and growing motives.
These are scary ideas. The only good seems to be that these scientists have finally broken the monopoly: Now, insted of just politicians, scientists are moving into areas they know nothing about.
Taylor Hunt once wrote: " We are really not managing risk anymore. We are managing uncertainty." (Mauldin)
Mark Buchannan has a book out call "Ubiquity. Why Catastrophes Happen" in which he examines this notion. It is a heady topic in science that involves chaos and game theory but fearlessly these scientists apply their abstract science thinking to modern life.
In essence, as a stable state grows, the instability of the state grows, a very Minsky-like belief. "The collapse is fundamentally due to the unstable position; the instantaneous cause of the collapse is secondary." (Didier Sornette, a French geophysicist who wrote a book on money markets!)
So any non-static entity gradually builds its own instability. The triggering event is relatively minor in the equation but, as complexity grows, it is less predictable in timing and source. See this in terms of growing populations, growing technology and growing motives.
These are scary ideas. The only good seems to be that these scientists have finally broken the monopoly: Now, insted of just politicians, scientists are moving into areas they know nothing about.
Taylor Hunt once wrote: " We are really not managing risk anymore. We are managing uncertainty." (Mauldin)
No comments:
Post a Comment