Plague

In 1918, the influenza pandemic took the lives of more people than died in World War I; it was the most devastating epidemic recorded in world history.  It infected 500 million people around the world, including people on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic, and resulted in the deaths of 50 to 100 million. You could not hide.

In two years, a fifth of the world's population was infected. The flu was most deadly for people ages 20 to 40, unusual for influenza which is usually a killer of the elderly and young children. It infected 28% of all Americans (Tice). An estimated 675,000 Americans died of influenza during the pandemic, ten times as many as in the world war. Of the U.S. soldiers who died in Europe, half of them fell to the influenza virus and not to the enemy. An estimated 43,000 servicemen mobilized for WWI died of influenza (Crosby). 

Compare this to the Black Death. The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30–60% of Europe's total population. In total, the plague may have reduced the world population from an estimated 450 million down to 350–375 million in the 14th century. It took 200 years for the world population to recover to its previous level. The plague recurred as outbreaks in Europe until the 19th century.

The most widely accepted estimate for the Middle East, including Iraq, Iran and Syria, during this time, is for a death rate of about a third. The Black Death killed about 40% of Egypt's population. Half of Paris's population of 100,000 people died. In Italy, the population of Florence was reduced from 110,000–120,000 inhabitants in 1338 down to 50,000 in 1351. At least 60% of the population of Hamburg and Bremen perished, and a similar percentage of Londoners may have died from the disease as well. In London approximately 62,000 people died between the years between 1346 and 1353. Before 1350, there were about 170,000 settlements in Germany, and this was reduced by nearly 40,000 by 1450. In 1348, the plague spread so rapidly that before any physicians or government authorities had time to reflect upon its origins, about a third of the European population had already died. In crowded cities, it was not uncommon for as much as 50% of the population to die. The disease bypassed some areas, and the most isolated areas were less vulnerable to contagion. Monks and priests were especially hard-hit since they cared for victims of the Black Death.
Caregivers always die first.

(couple of sources, incl wiki)

Socialism, Democratic and Otherwise

The difference  between socialism and social democracy:

Socialism suggests state ownership and control of all major resources — and generally ends with the complete collapse and destruction of the productive population.

Social democracy suggests redistribution of capitalistic gains — more like Denmark or Norway or Sweden--presumably to allow the independence and the protection of the producer. This redirects capital but does not strangle it.  Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders are both declared socialists--with the old socialist candidate Eugene Debs on a poster in Sanders' office-- and the DSA, of which both are members, openly acknowledges its desire to abolish capitalism.

I believe them when they say they are socialists.

But let’s assume that they are lying, that what Ocasio-Cortez and Democrats want is actually just European-style social democracy. If that’s the case, this is more complicated than it seems. There is an argument that the  Nordic countries aren’t thriving and healthy because they’re socialist; they’re thriving and healthy because they are small and homogenous. And it helps if the country owns an oilfield. Nordic life expectancy was superior to life expectancy in the United States before the Nordic states tried to grow government redistributionism radically. Small communities sometimes have a genetic advantage, or disadvantage. The left is fond of citing Norway and Sweden — even though both are now moving in a politically right-wing direction — but neglecting Switzerland, which is just as successful and far less socialistic.

This is reminiscent of comparing national gun laws: There are a lot of variables and we don't know them. There are some truths, though. The German National Socialists were more a social democracy by these definitions than a straight socialist country. And they were successful for a while. But built into their economic model was killing the unproductive, building mostly weapons and using those weapons to steal foodstuffs and energy sources from their neighbors. 

Predators need productive, vulnerable neighbors. Maybe that's why they fare so poorly in South America. Because, as the Iron Lady said, sooner or later you run out of other people's money.

Reverie

I am sick of reading about people who want to regulate Facebook. You didn’t come up with the idea. You didn’t build the business. Now that it’s here, who the heck do you think you are telling them how to run it?--Kling

General Motors' supply chain includes 20,000 businesses worldwide. Of the seven "most American" car models, measured by the value of domestically made components, four are Hondas, three models made in Alabama and one made in Ohio. The number of 2018 models whose parts are all American or Canadian: 0.

Deflategate:  75% of the American people thought Tom Brady was a cheater. But in four states, that number was less than 22% — Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island.  Connecticut, which is the dividing line between Boston and New York sports fans, was in between, at 55%.

So....we tend to adjust the evidence in our own favor.

Will has a funny story as an example of how we humans rise above evidence: "In the 1830s, a Baptist preacher predicted Jesus would return to Earth sometime between March 21, 1843 and March 21, 1844. When the world persisted, its end was re-predicted by the preacher's followers for October 22, 1844. Between March and October, the number of believers increased substantially. Despite their great disappointment on October 23, many followers held to their beliefs and went on to found the Seventh-day Adventist Church."

Who is..... Amleth?

In another of conservatism’s founding documents, “The Wealth of Nations,” Adam Smith argued that trade barriers and protections offered to dying industries will not, in the long run, serve the interests of the people. On the contrary, they will lead to an ossified economy that will splinter in the face of competition. President Trump seems not to have grasped this point. His protectionist policies resemble those of postwar socialist governments in Europe, which insulated dysfunctional industries from competition and led not merely to economic stagnation but also to a kind of cultural pessimism that surely goes entirely against the American grain. --Scruton

Many of Trump's supporters harbor, I think, the belief that this bad decision is a bluff, that Trump knows that this is a bad policy. But I think it far more likely that Trump is a "Philosophy Free" zone.

And, in the same vein, "Suppose you’re a slave, and your master undertakes to beat you more frequently. When you complain, the wise-asses on Facebook berate your intelligence because of your failure to understand that this increase in beatings is only a bargaining tactic by which your master expects to induce other masters to reduce the frequency with which they beat their own slaves. If this “bargaining tactic” makes sense to you, you may be favorably impressed with Trump’s trade policies and related ad hoc actions."--Higgs

One of the consequences of the rise of electronic media and the decline of newspapers is the lack of agreed upon arts opinion and assessment. A recent Hamlet was very good, with momentum, a great set and fine supporting actors. Hamlet himself was a straightforward, conflicted guy with an unusual and revealing wry self-deprecation. But they did not sell out. The only possible reason for that--other than cost and a general decline in the arts--is that the arts are becoming isolated. I read no reviews, heard no talk about the play. That is a shame as it implies that this kind of thing will retreat to campuses where Lord knows what will happen to it as it is filtered though the constricted minds of the needy.

After all, the rhetoric of competitiveness, the view that, in the words of President Clinton, each nation is “like a big corporation competing in the global marketplace”, has become pervasive among opinion leaders throughout the world. People who believe themselves to be sophisticated about the subject take it for granted that the economic problem facing any modern nation is essentially one of competing on world markets, that the United States and Japan are competitors in the same sense that Coca-Cola competes with Pepsi, and are unaware that anyone might seriously question that proposition.--Krugman

This is meant to be both revelatory--and cautious.

Epigone: n:

an undistinguished imitator, follower, or successor of an important writer, painter, etc.

The English noun epigone ultimately comes from the Greek plural noun epígonoi “offspring, posterity,” literally “(ones) born after or later,” a noun use of the adjective epígonos “born besides.” The original, primary use of epígonoi was for the sons of the seven heroes who fought against “Seven-Gated” Thebes, traditionally a generation before the Trojan War. The secondary use of epígonoi was for the heirs of the diádochoi “successors,” i.e., Alexander the Great’s (356-323 b.c.) generals (e.g., Ptolemy, Seleucus) who divided Alexander’s conquests among themselves. The diádochoi were very competent and their offspring far inferior, which is the modern meaning of epigone. Epigone entered English in the 19th century.

According to Forbes magazine, the Pirates made a profit of $35 million last season, 10th highest in baseball. (They made $51 million in 2016.) The franchise is worth $1.26 billion. Their salary is 27th.

American women are having children at the lowest rate on record, with the number of babies born in the U.S. last year dropping to a 30-year low.

Some states and ethnic groups are actually paying women birth bonuses.

A lot of anxiety in medical care about impressions. Experts are rising. Research actually suggests whenever we meet someone for the first time, that judgment about the other person will be formed in only the first few seconds, about seven seconds to be precise. The factors? Smile, eye contact and posture.

Holy smokes: Michigan State University has reached a settlement for $500 million with 332 victims of sexual abuse by former sports medicine doctor Larry Nassar. He also served as a doctor for the U.S. women’s national gymnastics team. 332 women and children.

So, whose money is that? Who is really being punished?

Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned that a lack of integrity and ethics among America’s leaders is putting freedom and democracy at risk. He spoke to new VMI graduates. (wsj)
Is this risk recent?

The Hill reported that the Trump Administration said it “will not approve state requests to impose lifetime limits on Medicaid coverage, breaking with conservatives who have pushed for the strict limitation.” CMS Administrator Seema Verma said, “We’ve indicated we would not approve lifetime limits, and we’ve made that pretty clear to states.” 
So the tree will grow to the sky.

But those who constantly lust over other people’s money have no shame. A union-backed activist group named Working Washington immediately called for — wait for it — Amazon to be charged with a felony for the crime of “intimidating a public servant.” Simply questioning whether its business expansion in Seattle would be a good idea in the face of an arbitrary and substantial increase of its labor costs was the alleged crime.--deRugy
Wanting other people's money probably has gone on forever, that it is moral, is new.

Studies have shown that height, certainly a random factor, is associated with wealth. This has led to a group of "thinkers" who believe that, since such a factor is unearned, it should be taxed. Some are studying beauty as well.

You can see where this goes. Only a special mind would try to legislate chance.

A comment on a review of "Little Pink House:"

The legal - and ethical - issue that was at stake in Kelo was not how much or how little money Suzette Kelo was to get from the state for her house. The issue was whether or not the state has the authority to seize her house under the 5th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. Ms. Kelo rightly argued that seizing A's private property in order to give it to B because B is likely to pay more taxes is not what the Constitution means by "public use" when it restricts government's power to "take" (upon paying just compensation") private property only for "public use."

If anyone is looking for a true cause where the corporation and the state take up arms together against the individual citizen, this is it.

What is the anagram of Amleth?

The University of Michigan has a vice provost for equity and inclusion, and a director of the Office of Student Conflict Resolution. When the Wall Street Journal’s Jillian Kay Melchior asked Michigan for the records of one year of bias incident reports, “the university thwarted this inquiry by imposing a fee of more than $2,400 for the public records.”

Wonder why. Too many? Or too few.

It’s estimated that less than 10 percent of 2 million domestic workers and the families who employ them pay employment taxes.

Golden oldie:
http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2016/04/sunday-41016.html

Approximately 25 percent of the world’s population is infected with tuberculosis. This is not all active, but all are potentially active. When you jhear of all the trheats to civilztion that are the very results of civilization--like AIDS and Ebola--tuberculosis id the real prototype modern disease.

What happened in the Costa elections and why are people so sanguine about it? The Costas are an old, established Democrat family with a number of elected members in local and state offices. Two Costa cousins were defeated in primaries by two women, Summer Lee and Sara Innamorato, who were endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America. They were heard to say that "Socialism was just common sense." That is quite a generality and it may be more telling than they know. But it is curious why these two elections did not receive more coverage--and more scrutiny.

It looks very much like the Cortez election.

“Melania” is now among the fastest-growing baby names in the nation. And a new poll by anti-Trump CNN reported a 10 percent jump in the first lady's favorability ratings — from 47 percent in January to 57 percent last week. That will not be allowed to continue. CNN contributor April Ryan attacked her as “not culturally American.”

Probably "too diverse." And an immigrant. And speaks too many languages.

Can you imagine what would have happened if Paul Ryan had said that about Cortez? 

More than ever, the ideals of reason, science, humanism, and progress need a wholehearted defense. We take its [the enlightenment’s] gifts for granted: newborns who will live more than eight decades, markets overflowing with food, clean water that appears with the flick of a finger and waste that disappears with another, pills that erase a painful infection, sons who are not sent off to war, daughters who can walk the streets in safety, critics of the powerful who are not jailed or shot, the world’s knowledge and culture available in a shirt pocket.--Pinker

The Progressives strangely rarely see progress anywhere.

Aaaaaannnnnndddd.....a chart: