Graphs
Big and bad:
A new concept in the evaluation of Covid deaths:
Strange numbers, especially when seen in the context of Obama:
People voting with their feet in California:
Graphs
Big and bad:
A new concept in the evaluation of Covid deaths:
Strange numbers, especially when seen in the context of Obama:
People voting with their feet in California:
Reeducation
China Hand
From the book: ‘Hidden Hand: Exposing How the Chinese Communist Party Is Reshaping the World’ via The Epoch Times,.
In 2018 the well-connected Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin pointed out that China had been building networks of influence in the United States over many years, and that the U.S. government “is preparing for the possibility that the Chinese government will decide to weaponize” them to get what it wants. (Although Beijing is not known to use Russian-style “active measures” in the West, deploying them is only a matter of political calculation.)
One of the CCP’s most audacious penetration operations, Chinagate in 1996, saw a top intelligence operative meeting a naive President Clinton in the White House, along with donations to the Clinton campaign made through people with ties to the Chinese military.
Until recently, almost all players in Washington D.C. and beyond were convinced by the “peaceful rise of China” trope, and the value of “constructive engagement.” The common belief was that as China developed economically, it would naturally morph into a liberal state. This view was not without foundation, because the more liberal factions within the CCP did struggle with the hardliners, but in the U.S. it reinforced a kind of institutional naivety that was exploited by Beijing. Many of those who stuck to this view even after the evidence pointed firmly to the contrary had a strong personal investment in defending Beijing.
The Washington Post’s Josh Rogin argued that “his [Bloomberg’s] misreading of the Chinese government’s character and ambitions could be devastating for U.S. national security and foreign policy. He would be advocating for a naive policy of engagement and wishful thinking that has already been tried and failed.”
In May 2019 Joe Biden distinguished himself from all of the other candidates for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination by ridiculing the idea that China is a strategic threat to the United States. “China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man,” he told a campaign crowd in Iowa City. Biden had for years adopted a soft approach to China. When President Obama’s secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, was taking a tougher position towards China’s adventurism in Asia, Vice President Biden was urging caution. Biden had formed a warm personal relationship with Xi Jinping when Xi was vice president and president-in-waiting.
So does it matter if Joe Biden has a different view of China? It does, because there is evidence that the CCP has been currying his favor by awarding business deals that have enriched his son, Hunter Biden. One account of this is given by Peter Schweizer in his 2019 book “Secret Empires.” Some of his key claims were subsequently challenged and Schweizer refined them in an op-ed in the New York Times (famous for fact-checking). In short, when Vice President Biden traveled to China in December 2013 on an official trip, his son flew with him on Airforce Two. While Biden senior was engaging in soft diplomacy with China’s leaders, Hunter was having other kinds of meetings. Then, “less than two weeks after the trip, Hunter’s firm … which he founded with two other businessmen [including John Kerry’s stepson] in June 2013, finalized a deal to open a fund, BHR Partners, whose largest shareholder is the government-run Bank of China, even though he had scant background in private equity.”
The Bank of China is owned by the state and controlled by the CCP. Hunter Biden’s exact role in the company is disputed, but one expert has said that his share in it would be worth around $20 million.
However, the point here is not the ethics of the Bidens (as the news media have framed it) but the way in which the CCP can influence senior politicians. This “corruption by proxy,” in which top leaders keep their hands clean while their family members exploit their association to make fortunes, has been perfected by the “red aristocracy” in Beijing.
In the crucial years 2014 and 2015, Beijing was aggressively expanding into the South China Sea while Obama, Kerry, and Biden were sitting on their hands...
One guy's opinion...
Institutionalized Charity
What is the relationship between profit and social values? Does the modern world identify profit with usury and sin? Is profit possible in a religious community or is the only trade barter?
If so, can charity make up for these errors? Can a plaintiff lawyer gain credit by starting a charity, however insincere?
Is there a break-even point? Is there a point where a business can be excessive in its charity? Or is charity by its very nature so good that there can be no excess? That even bankruptcy is acceptable in a good cause?
Or is it possible that individuals can be charitable but institutions cannot? That institutions mimicking charity is like a dog in a tutu or a bear dancing--the denigrating and inappropriate application of one entity's characteristics to another? Like blackface.
Human appropriation.
.
Sunday/The CliffsNote
Today's gospel is the Two Great Commandments gospel, the love of God and the love of neighbor.
The love of God was written, literally, in the Jewish life of the time--and continues in some households. The Old Testament has admonishments to write the commandment of the love of God on doorposts, arm, and forehead and many did. This is the "Phylactery," the written inscriptions of the bible in leather boxes on house doorways, and the forehead and arm of believers. So the notion that the love of God and neighbor be ever-present became literal.
There were 613 laws in Christ's time that governed Judaic life. Sometimes genius shows in the insightful simplifying of reality.
Happy Birthday Earth One Day Late
This is one of my favorite days of the year. Today is the birthday of the earth.
James Ussher was born in Ireland in 1581. His mother was Catholic but he grew up a Calvinist. He became a priest, was a well regarded academic and scholar. He became Bishop of Armagh and Primate of all Ireland in 1625 and continued so until his death in 1656.
But, while a powerful and influential political and religious figure, he is known best for his historical research into the age of the earth. He started with Adam. The bible records an unbroken line from Adam to Solomon. There were some estimates necessary because not all of the information correlates perfectly, and there is some guesswork from begat to begat.
After Solomon, more historical resources were necessary but good historic points existed up to the Destruction of the Temple. After this--the so-called Late Age of Kings from Ezra to Jesus--the Bible offered little help and most of the dates had to be taken from independent history. For example, the death of the Chaldean King Nebuchadnezzar II, who conquered Jerusalem in 586 B.C., could be correlated with the 37th year of the exile of Jehoiachin (2 Kings 25:27).
He finally published his most famous work, the Annales veteris testimenti, a prima mundi origine deducti ("Annals of the Old Testament, deduced from the first origins of the world"), which appeared in 1650, and its continuation, Annalium pars posterior, published in 1654. In this work, he calculated the date of the Creation to have been nightfall on October 22, 4004 B.C.. Probably at 6 p.m..
Before you roll your eyes, be aware that his estimates do not differ much from other such bible-based estimates of the time, estimates from significant thinkers, notably Johannes Kepler who estimated the birth of the earth as 3992 B.C. and Isaac Newton as 4000 B.C.. And Ussher was a very accomplished man; his collected works make up eighteen volumes.
The annoying and disappointing Stephan Jay Gould would write in "Fall in the House of Ussher" in Eight Little Piggies:
I shall be defending Ussher's chronology as an honorable effort for its time and arguing that our usual ridicule only records a lamentable small-mindedness based on mistaken use of present criteria to judge a distant and different past
Ussher represented the best of scholarship in his time. He was part of a substantial research tradition, a large community of intellectuals working toward a common goal under an accepted methodology…
So times change. Methodologies change. And brilliant minds work within their contexts. And some, despite their greatest efforts, will be remembered only for their errors.
Happy Birthday, Earth!
Elephants
So now Giuliani shows up looking like a lecherous fool in the new Borat film. And Hilary has a foundation that melts away when she doesn't become President. And Bill Clinton, steeped in assaults from Arkansas, hooks up with an intern which would have been the end of any responsible executive. And a Sofitel New York Hotel maid claimed the International Monetary Fund chief had sexually assaulted her while she was working in his room. And countless politicians travel countless miles with Epstein. And Trump's egocentric foolishness. Now Biden, after looking like a Mafia boss in the Ukraine, looks like a petty grifter in China.
When can we discuss the elephants in the room here? Maybe after the newsman masturbating on Zoom is finished.
Theory
Postmodern Theory is so difficult to understand. It's as if it was conceived after some bright humanities student was badly damaged after sitting in on a science survey course and hearing about Heisenberg. What results is an idea that seems self-negating.
Revolution R Us
A new entry in the field of entrepreneurial revolutionary activism.
Colin Kaepernick is calling for abolishing the police and prison institutions as part of a new series of essays.
A Social Shift
An interesting and surprising bit from Brooks on societal changes:
Sunday/Caesar
A comment on the "Render unto Caesar" gospel dismissed it as comic; when given a difficult either-or choice the answer is "Yes." It is a profound underestimation.
In it, the wolves are circling. Christ has delivered three parables since his return to Jerusalem and all involve grim assessments of the organized Jewish religion and in one, the middle one about the tenants and the vineyard, he identifies himself as the Son of God. The question is asked to isolate him either from Rome or from his religious followers. While his answer is brilliant, it is seen as a more clever verbal twist than cosmic.
But it is not. Christ shows himself to be very understanding of our lives. Christ is willing to give the material world--the bustling business and marching political world--its place. But he reveals it as just a small place. The world has its demands, practical and real--like working on the sabbath to rescue the family cow from a ditch. Christ does not begrudge us our practical anxieties. But he follows with the hugely diminishing clincher: While you understandably must render to Caesar what is his, so must you render what is God's to God. And so the great Caesar and giant Rome are allowed to throw a shadow in their little world.
Methods in Madness
From Henderson's review of Casey Mulligan’s new book, You’re Hired: Untold Successes and Failures of a Populist President.
"Like many people who have been appalled by some of Trump’s tweets, I had assumed that he was up in the wee hours carelessly knocking out his bombastic messages. I’m still not a fan of many of Trump’s tweets, but a chapter titled “I Wish That He Would Stay Off Twitter” tells two important things about the economics tweets. First, Trump’s economic advisers gave him a lot of input on the economics tweets. Second, whereas I had thought that Trump’s exaggerations undercut him, Mulligan argues, with evidence, that they were part of a strategy for getting good news covered. If Trump told the truth about good economic news, the media would often not cover it. But if he exaggerated, “the press might enjoy correcting him and unwittingly disseminate the intended finding.” My Hoover colleague John Cochrane, in a recent post about the book, notes that Trump’s tweets are his version of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Fireside Chats. Recall that, hard as it is to imagine today, FDR faced a largely hostile conservative press. Trump faces hostile left-wing media."
So there is no way to get covered honestly in the American Press except by dishonesty?
What Politics Has Become
These are very disturbing observations. How could people take these politicians so seriously? It must be that a country where government is not the be all and end all has changed.
A 2019 working paper by Sergio Pinto, Panka Bencsik, Tuugi Chuluun, and Carol Graham finds that the loss of well-being experienced by partisans when their party loses is significantly larger than any well-being gain experienced by the winners. And seeing one's side lose an election can have surprisingly devastating results. Immediately after their candidate lost the 2016 presidential election, the decline in life satisfaction experienced by Democrats was greater than the adverse effects of losing a job—a life event that has some of the worst documented effects on people's well-being. Estimates based on recent survey data suggest that roughly 94 million Americans believe that politics has caused them stress, 44 million believe that it has cost them sleep, and 28 million believe that it has harmed their physical health.
..research by University of Memphis political scientist Eric Groenendyk indicates that "partisans' identities are increasingly anchored to hatred of the outparty rather than affection for their inparty."
13 percent of Americans blocked friends on their social media accounts due to political disagreements. Sixteen percent stopped talking to a friend or family member because of politics; 13 percent ended a relationship with a friend or family member. Over a quarter of Americans limited their "interactions with certain friends or family members" as a result of politics. Nearly 30 percent of Americans consider it important to live where most people share their political opinions.
About 40 percent of Democrats and Republicans believe that members of the other party "are not just worse for politics—they are downright evil." Twenty percent of Democrats and 15 percent of Republicans agreed that "we'd be better off as a country if large numbers of" the opposing party "just died."
A study by Vanderbilt University's James Martherus and others found that more than half of partisans rated members of the opposing party as less evolved than members of their own party—they located out-party members farther away from an image of a modern human on a scale showing the stages of human evolution.
18 percent of Democrats and 13 percent of Republicans "feel violence would be justified" if the other party wins the 2020 presidential election.
Viral Notions
Several opinions on the Virus:
As of Wednesday, some 3,700 medical and public-health scientists had signed the Great Barrington Declaration calling for a more balanced approach, which would allow “those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk.” Donald Trump and most Republican governors would sign that declaration. Joe Biden and the Democrats would not, ever. If Mr. Biden wins—throwing in as well his intention to raise taxes amid the pandemic should Democrats gain control of the Senate—the return of the U.S. to economic and social normalcy is going to take a very, very long time.--Henninger. Why this is not more regarded is obscure to me; petitions signed by people with degrees is a coup de grace in climate arguments.
If we are missing 90% of cases in the U.S. and 95% in the world, this has obvious implications for the death risk from Covid—it is flu-like. And yet responsible news organizations and institutions like Johns Hopkins continue to invite their audiences to compare Covid’s death tally against a “confirmed” case count devoid of systematic meaning. This is the statistical equivalent of sampling subjects at the morgue and in kindergartens to estimate the fatality rate of people involved in car accidents. You will certainly find individuals who survived and didn’t survive car accidents, but your computed rate will be nonsense. I have news for Americans: All of our data about the prevalence and deadliness of the flu are estimates, except for pediatric deaths, which are actually counted. If, as we do with Covid, we relied on “confirmed” flu tests for how many are infected and what percentage die, we would be wildly and catastrophically misinformed about the flu’s real prevalence and its real deadliness.--Jenkins. Estimates? We are destroying the economy on a guess?
“The remedy for this self-imposed economic harakiri, this desperate and destructive attempt at self-harm that is governments’ pandemic response, is exactly that: end it. Abolish. Abandon. Cease and desist. Have governments get out of the way and individuals make choices of their own, choices adjusted to their own risks and risk tolerance – not a mindless one-size-fits-all solution that takes very little account of real people’s lives.” – Joakim Book.
And, just to stir the pot, there are cases of reinfection emerging.
The popularity of TV sports is the topic of a lot of debate. Has it lost its social element? Its diversion element? Is there some hierarchy here that is being revealed in restaurants?
Decline in sports viewership is not just the NBA.:
Sunday/Feast
Today's gospel is the Wedding Feast, where the king invites his people to his son's wedding and no one comes. Worse, the people kill his messengers. So the king kills his people, burns their cities and invites strangers and wayfarers to the celebration instead. "Bad as well as good." Not flattering to us gentiles.
It is pretty harsh, with a curious ambiguity. Christ couches prophesy and the union of the king with his people in a very human ceremony, one of diversion, carelessness, and fun. This is a far cry from the strict admonition to abandon your father and the plow. Much more like Cana with its respect for humanity, its daily life, and its continuity.
And, of the ignored prophets, here is the Scottish Wm. Drummond:
THE last and greatest Herald of Heaven's King,
Girt with rough skins, hies to the deserts wild,
Among that savage brood the woods forth bring,
Which he than man more harmless found and mild.
His food was locusts, and what young doth spring
With honey that from virgin hives distill'd;
Parch'd body, hollow eyes, some uncouth thing
Made him appear, long since from earth exiled.
There burst he forth: 'All ye, whose hopes rely
On God, with me amidst these deserts mourn;
Repent, repent, and from old errors turn!'
—Who listen'd to his voice, obey'd his cry?
Only the echoes, which he made relent,
Rung from their marble caves 'Repent! Repent!'
Stats and Graphs
In the U.S. over the past two decades, black people comprised:
Some spending and debt numbers:
Trump and Expectation
There have been many attempts to explain Trump's success in 2016. Certainly, a large anti-Hilary vote did as much damage as the anti-Trump vote will likely do this year. But the animosity toward Trump reveals an additional positive notion about Trump: I think Trump signalled a rejection of the idea that the government was wise and perceptive, could do boundless positive things and needed wise and perceptive people to guide it. Trump was the declaration of politicians' limits.
Could things change so quickly? Could a new candidate, a virtual hereditary politician of scores of years of elected office, a presumed stalking horse for an unknown group of advisors, emerge to offer government leadership and expertise just three and a half years later?
Look at how the West has accepted the virtually random--but forceful--handling of The Virus. There is no real science available. Information, as it should in science, is constantly changing, yet every nation--all with varying degrees of constitutional liberties--have rushed in with definitive and crippling solutions. Economies have been shut down. Lives, if not ruined, changed. And its citizens have been more than accepting, they have been militantly accepting. We are all centralized power believers now.
Trump's election was not a retrenching of old principles of liberty, it was those principles' last gasp.
Post-Debate Analysis
So what can be done? We invite these politicians on prime time, as if they were as important as the baseball playoffs, so they can do advertisements for themselves. And it is undeniable; people--especially young people--watch and analyze them as if they were legitimate, reasonable people interested in our welfare rather than their own.
Maybe if we made them wear bells and, when they walk, required them to cry out "Unclean! Unclean!"
Business Myth
One of the many shibboleths unmasked by the Virus is the powerful influence of business upon government. The two are always seen hand in glove. But any government that has the ability to shut its economy down with its inevitable economic and business infrastructure destruction is clearly autonomous. Such a self-inflicted wound would be impossible if the government allowed any business biased--or even sensible--input.
A mortal enemy could not hope for as much.
Scientists and Politicians
Nothing is more emblematic of the current state of affairs than the picture of a scientist and a politician on the same stage discussing the same topic.
The scientist makes progress through trial and error. He learns as much from a negative result as he does from a positive one. And he is neutral. The politician has a peculiar relationship with results: The actual results are not really factors for him. Rather he simply declares success regardless of the results and the Press praises or vilified him without any regard for the results at all. Negative results are not in any politician's world. Which is to say, learning from behavior and events is not within the politician's purview. And, while his motives are hidden, he always presents himself in the costume of concern for some unproven greater good.
Scientists and politicians are from two different worlds, one objective and one fantastic. They not only have nothing in common, they are exclusive.
Disparities
Critical Race Theory argues that disparity in racial results in society can be explained by the presence of bigotry. But what if there are other possibilities.
Data demonstrate that there are three simple behavioral rules for avoiding poverty: finish high school, produce no child before marrying or before age twenty. Only 8 percent of families who conform to all three rules are poor; 79 percent of those who do not conform are poor.
Could that imply that some disparities might be the result of bad choices? And not someone else's fault? That one disparity begets the other? Perhaps not. But one basic notion of Critical Theory is that, on one hand , your life is out of your control for some and, for those same people, their life can be stabilized and improved only by someone else.
Sunday/Cornerstones and Towers
Today's gospel is one of the many vineyard parables, in which a man makes a vineyard to lease and creates a tower to overlook it. It's the "cornerstone" parable, threatening, at least.
"He will put those wretched men to a wretched death
and lease his vineyard to other tenants
who will give him the produce at the proper times."
Jesus said to them, "Did you never read in the Scriptures:
The stone that the builders rejected
has become the cornerstone;
by the Lord has this been done,
and it is wonderful in our eyes?
Therefore, I say to you,
the kingdom of God will be taken away from you
and given to a people that will produce its fruit."
This is from The Tower by Yeats: