Examining the Valley of Death:Trying to Understand Ukraine

A man arrested and charged with capital murder of a policeman was released on bond in Texas.

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"The end of the war is very, very far away,"--Zelenskyy

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Examining the Valley of Death: Trying to Understand Ukraine

   Theirs not to make reply,

   Theirs not to reason why,

   Theirs but to do and die.

How will there be progress in Ukraine? Well, practice makes perfect. We poor humans will always jump at a chance to die for glory, justice, and retribution. And we might be getting better at it as we seem to fight on the same battlefields. After all, Tennyson wrote "Charge of the Light Brigade" about a cavalry charge in the British action against the Russians in the Crimean War in 1854. 1854! The British have been fighting the Russians in Ukraine for almost 200 years. But what can you expect from people who define their conflicts in terms of 'decades' and 'centuries.' George Washington had a point. There's no rush to join a European war; we can join at any time.

But if our thinking has not evolved, our weapons have. Modern 'Javelins' are not lances. Modern explosions can kill the world.

And now Ukraine is back.

The public blowup with Zelenskyy over the weekend raises several frightening worries. Superficially, after weeks of negotiations, Zelenskyy declined to proceed. He left with the American administration publically furious, was feted in Europe by members of the EU who offered emotional support (but little else), and Trump's administration was attacked by the Left as being pro-Russian and in thrall to Putin, perhaps treasonously so. (The Left suddenly hates Russians.)

                                      WWII

Ukraine was the breadbasket of the Soviet Union when dictator Josef Stalin seized the rich, fertile land from the local farmers in the early 1930s and forced them into a collectivized, state-run agricultural system.

The result was one of the worst famines of the 20th century. The death toll is still debated, but mainstream historians put the figure at 3 million to 5 million deaths in Ukraine. (Ukraine's current population is about 38 million.)

                                 Russia Dissolves

When the Soviet Union was falling apart in December 1991, Ukraine held a referendum on the independence it had long sought. A whopping 92% voted in favor — a result that helped accelerate the collapse of the Soviet state just weeks later.

Ukraine worked out an unusual agreement in 1994, just three years after receiving independence. The country agreed to give up all the nuclear weapons it had inherited from the Soviet Union. In exchange, Ukraine received guarantees from Russia, the U.S., and Britain that its borders would be respected. (Read again. That was actually signed and celebrated. No wonder the Ukrainians worry.)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it even harder with his repeated meddling in Ukraine, seeking to keep pro-Russia leaders in power. In 2004, Russia was seen as trying to rig the Ukrainian presidential election in favor of a pro-Russia candidate, Viktor Yanukovych. Ukrainians pushed back with massive street protests — the so-called Orange Revolution. Yanukovych was defeated. In 2014, Ukrainians again took to the streets in protest of Yanukovych — who at that point had served as president for four years. After weeks of demonstrations, he fled to Russia.

But shortly after Putin lost out politically in Ukraine in 2014, he sent the Russian military to seize Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, and the troops have remained there.

                                         2022

Russia invades Ukraine again. Hilary Clinton says it will be good for America as it will "bleed" Russia. Biden offers Zelensky asylum in an astonishing display of detachment and stupidity. Zelenski's response is Churchillian: "I don't need a ride, I need guns."

                                         Istanbul

In March and April 2022, the first months after the Russian invasion, US allies Israel and Turkey hosted talks between Ukraine and Russia. In Istanbul, the two sides agreed to the outline of an agreement.

Under that deal, Russia would withdraw from territory seized after the invasion in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality and limits on its military. In addition, Kiev would recognize Crimea as Russian and its Western backers would lift sanctions on Moscow.

In April 2022, then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson traveled to Kiev and informed Ukrainian President Zelensky that he would not receive Western support if he signed the deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Most of these reports are Russian and Johnson has denied them, saying he just “expressed concerns” about the nature of the potential agreement.)

A common concern: “Many of us have, and it’s absolutely human, a willingness to see that the war ends as soon as possible, that people are not suffering, not dying, and that there are no bombings,” said a senior European diplomat who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk frankly about sensitive security issues. “There is an unfortunate dilemma. The problem is that if it ends now, there is a kind of time for Russia to regroup, and it will restart, under this or another pretext. Putin is not going to give up his goals.”

As part of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military entered Ukraine from Belarus. One of the initial moves was a push towards the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, as part of which a huge column of military vehicles moved south towards the city of Bucha. Russian troops entered and massacred the city. Ukrainian troops rallied and pushed the Russians away from Kyiv and out of Bucha. On April 1, 2022, following the Russian withdrawal, video footage was posted to social media that showed mass civilian casualties and dogs feeding on the corpses in the street.

With all the political and ethnic elements in the stew, the Bucha event was a factor in the failure of the Istanbul initiative. The Ukrainians were enraged, vengeful, and buoyed by their military success.

This conflict began to have a Bosnian element.

                              February, 2025

Trump indicated he would be willing to lift sanctions on Moscow, or at least begin to normalize the economic relationship between the superpowers, as part of a deal to end the war in Ukraine. “I am in serious discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia concerning the ending of the War, and also major Economic Development transactions which will take place between the United States and Russia,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Talks are proceeding very well!”

                                Rubio meets Zelensky

When asked about the growing tension between the two leaders, Rubio
said Trump's frustration with Zelensky escalated after Ukraine rejected
a proposed deal involving U.S. investment in the country's mineral
resources.

According to Rubio, the deal was intended to protect American economic
interests while also recovering some of the nearly $200 billion in aid the
U.S. has provided.

"We want to be in a joint venture with Ukraine—not because we're trying
to take advantage of them, but because we believe it's actually a security guarantee," Rubio said.

He claimed Zelensky initially seemed receptive to the deal but later publicly rejected it, contradicting what had been discussed and agreed to in private. Rubio was visibly angry over what he felt was a reversal of the agreement.

Diplomatic tensions appeared to ease between the Trump administration
and Zelenskyy after U.S. special envoy for Ukraine, retired Lieutenant
General Keith Kellogg, took a markedly different approach during his
meeting with the Ukrainian leader in Kyiv and reported progress.

                   Zelenskyy comes to Washington

After the Ukrainians agreed to the initial trade agreement regarding the
rare earth deposits, Zelenskyy flew to for the official signing. An intense
discussion was held on how Zelenskyy was to limit the public discussion before the signing ritual. Then, on to the ceremonial Press Conference.

Now for the worrisome news. It is said routinely on TV and in news articles that, after he was prepped by the Republicans on how to manage the ceremony, Zelenskyy spoke to the Democrats for 45 minutes where they advised against cooperating with the administration.

Then Zelenskyy walked into the Oval Office and, as he had earlier with Rubio, reversed course. 

                      Possible lessons:

Zelensky is unreliable. He may be a liar.

Zelenski may not want peace. After all, diplomatic solutions have been laughable. It may be a Bosnian bloodlust. Or mindless revenge. One upsetting theory says there can be no corruption investigation if the war continues.

Trump is clear-minded and results-driven but may be too harsh for weak-minded observers to consider. The European response has been almost foolishly symbolic.

Trump's opponents may never be able to approve of anything he does, regardless of merit.

People seem to have forgotten the implications of losing a war. (See Gaza.) The less success you have in war, the further you are pushed away from the negotiation table. War is diplomacy by other means.

Europe's response will be inept but it will be self-clarifying.

Important, too, is the Democrat behavior. If the reports of their meddling are true, it shines a light on the complete autonomy of their efforts that are unrelated to the benefits to the nation. In the background is the essential incompatibility of liberalism with the American revolutionary vision.

If the Democrats did interfere with the negotiations, is that treason?