Sunday, January 10, 2016

Sunday 1/10/16

Today is the Baptism of Christ by John.

"The people were filled with expectation" as they wondered if John was the messiah. This is interesting as there had been no prophet in Israel in 400 years. What was going on? And why was Christ being baptized anyway? In Matthew, when John objects, saying he is not worthy to baptize Christ, Christ says,  
"Suffer it to be so now: for thus it becometh us to fulfil all righteousness."

This mixed human-divine element is really tough. Mohammad did not understand it and saw it as the hated polytheism. The Gnostics saw this event as the true moment where Christ became divine, infused in the moment. (There is indeed a strong argument that the celebration of the event was specifically emphasized to counter the Gnostic movement.) 

SEEING THINGS
Claritas

Claritas. The dry-eyed Latin word
Is perfect for the carved stone of the water
Where Jesus stands up to his unwet knees
And John the Baptist pours out more water
Over his head: all this in bright sunlight
On the facade of a cathedral. Lines
Hard and thin and sinuous represent
The flowing river. Down between the lines
Little antic fish are all go. Nothing else.
And yet in that utter visibility
The stone's alive with what's invisible:
Waterweed, stirred sand-grains hurrying off,
The shadowy, unshadowed stream itself.
All afternoon, heat wavered on the steps
And the air we stood up to our eyes in wavered
Like the zigzag hieroglyph for life itself.

-- Seamus Heaney, born Mossbawn, Co. Derry

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Cab Thoughts 1/9/16

The rich tend to get richer not just because of higher returns to capital, as the French economist Thomas Piketty has argued, but because they have superior access to the political system and can use their connections to promote their interests.--Francis Fukuyama


Only 12 Martian meteors are known to exist on earth and are collectively called Shergotty-Nakhla-Chassingy or SNC ("snick") meteorites. The most famous one is called Allan Hills (ALH) 84001 and is believed to have blasted off Mars 16 million years ago, hitting Earth 13,000 years ago in Antarctica. It is so remarkable because it appears to hold microscopic fossils of Martian bacteria, sparking intense debate about whether ancient life ever existed on Mars.

Who is....Yukio Mishima?

Geoffrey Smith, a scholar of early Christianity at the University of Texas, noticed an eBay listing for an ancient Greek papyrus fragment of the Gospel of John - with an opening bid of $99!--last January.  Mr. Smith intercepted it and will present his research at the annual conference of the Society of Biblical Literature in Atlanta. The credit-card-size papyrus, which Dr. Smith dates from around A.D. 250 to A.D. 350, contains about six lines of the Gospel of John on one side and an unidentified Christian text on the other. If Dr. Smith's analysis is correct, it is the only known Greek New Testament papyrus from an unused scroll rather than a codex, the emerging book technology that early Christians, in sharp contrast to their Jewish and pagan contemporaries, preferred for their texts.

There is a minor story that will get little coverage in the Iowa race. Iowa benefits from the ethanol -additive-to-gas scam. The farmers sell corn for ethanol--and not food--in an overwhelmingly illogical and corrupt politicized federal mandate requiring gasoline to be blended with 10% ethanol. Cruz is leading the Republican polls in Iowa despite his opposition to the law which he considers to be a form of corporate welfare. It would have been easy--and politically advantageous --for him to stay silent. It reminds me of Goldwater who campaigned against social security in Florida and in favor of closing military bases in Norfolk.

In 1970, the great Japanese author Yukio Mishima committed seppuku (ritual suicide, also known as hara-kiri). Mishima was a three-time Nobel nominee, and his dozen novels made him the most famous and translated Japanese writer of his generation. His spectacularly staged death was front-page news around the world, and it is still being analyzed for what it says about him, or his fiction, or Japan.

More than a dozen races across Western Pennsylvania appear to have been decided this year by fewer than 10 votes, including several by a single vote's difference, according to unofficial tallies.

Maritime abbreviations:
HMS: Her Majesty's Ship (or His Majesty's Ship, or Submarine), the prefix of Royal Navy ship names since 1789; the navies of Australia, New Zealand and Canada are also called Her Majesty's ship, but also have the country name with it.
RMS: Royal Mail Ship or Steamer or Submarine, prefix for ships under contract to the UK Royal Mail. The Titanic was a RMS.

Here is a message sent from  Politico's Chief White House correspondent Mike Allen to Hillary Clinton aide Philippe Reines requesting an interview with Chelsea Clinton:  "But This would be a way to send a message during inaugural week: No one besides me would ask her a question, and you and I would agree on them precisely in advance. This would be a relaxed conversation, and our innovative format (like a speedy Playbook Breakfast) always gets heavy social-media pickup. The interview would be "no-surprises": I would work with you on topics, and would start with anything she wants to cover or make news on. Quicker than a network hit, and reaching an audience you care about with no risk."
Free press.

An interesting paper written by Lawrence White on what economic thinking can be applied to the notion of redistribution of income. His conclusion is that it is limited. 
"The economic way of thinking does speak clearly, however, about the negative consequences of egalitarian income taxes on the generation of income, and the negative consequences of wealth taxes on the production of wealth through effort and saving. The size of income and wealth losses is an empirical question. The empirical evidence suggests large losses. That a price in reduced overall prosperity must be paid for egalitarian policies is not a decisive objection for those who place high value on egalitarian efforts, of course. But the price must be understood in order for citizens or policy-makers to make an informed decision."

Uxorious: adj: 1. doting upon, foolishly fond of, or affectionately submissive toward one's wife. ety: Uxorious is from the Latin word ūxor meaning "wife."

An article in the WSJ examines the disaffection with the world with capitalism. One point is this:  A new survey suggests that restoring confidence in free enterprise will mean ensuring that the same rules apply to everyone. What an insight.

As reported in The Hill: Dave Walker, who headed the Government Accountability Office (GAO) under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, said when you add up all of the nation's unfunded liabilities, the national debt is more than three times the number generally advertised. "If you end up adding to that $18.5 trillion the unfunded civilian and military pensions and retiree healthcare, the additional underfunding for Social Security, the additional underfunding for Medicare, various commitments and contingencies that the federal government has, the real number is about $65 trillion rather than $18 trillion, and it's growing automatically absent reforms," Walker told host John Catsimatidis on "The Cats Roundtable" on New York's AM-970 in an interview airing Sunday. He said Americans have "lost touch with reality" when it comes to spending.

Judicial Watch released more than 35 pages of emails former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's top aide Huma Abedin revealing that Abedin advised Clinton aide and frequent companion Monica Hanley that it was "very important" to go over phone calls with Clinton because the former Secretary of State was "often confused."  The emails, from Abedin's "Huma@clintonemail.com" address, also reveal repeated security breaches, with the Secretary's schedule and movements being sent and received through Abedin's non-governmental and unsecured Clinton server account.

Golden oldie:

This quote from an article, "The Confessions if an ISIS Spy:" In September of last year, at the apogee of ISIS's foreign recruitment surge, he says the influx of foreigners amazed even those welcoming them in. "We had like 3,000 foreign fighters who arrived every day to join ISIS. I mean, every day. And now we don't have even like 50 or 60." A positive change, certainly, but still a lot of recruits to a death cult.

A new study by Pew Research shows that American Millennials favor limiting speech when minorities are involved:
"We asked whether people believe that citizens should be able to make public statements that are offensive to minority groups, or whether the government should be able to prevent people from saying these things. Four-in-ten Millennials say the government should be able to prevent people publicly making statements that are offensive to minority groups." There's also a difference in education levels and support for limiting speech. Those with a high school degree or less are 9-percentage-points more likely to support censorship.

In a similar vein, students and faculty at Smith College apparently didn't want a repeat of that ugly episode at Mizzou, so when they held a sit-in Wednesday to protest racial discrimination, their solution was to not let in members of the media in the first place - unless said media members pledged allegiance to the cause.

Albert Einstein's general theory of relativity predicted the phenomenon of gravitational lensing. In such a case the light of a distant source is pulled toward a mass closer to the observer and concentrated. http://earthsky.org/space/the-cheshire-cat-group-of-galaxies

Some Westerners are buying ISIS crude, almost certainly with the tacit approval by various "western alliance" governments. Why is it that these middleman have been allowed to continue funding ISIS for as long as it has?
Who the on and offshore "commodity trading" middleman are and who cart away ISIS oil to European and other international markets in exchange for hundreds of millions of dollars should be identifiable. Apparently one name keeps popping up as the primary culprit of regional demand for the Islamic State's "terrorist oil" - that of Turkish president Recep Erdogan's son: Bilal Erdogan.

AAAAAaaaaannnnndddddd.......a chart of SoGen's possible economic "black swans:"



Friday, January 8, 2016

NAFTA

NAFTA should come up in this year's election. It was encouraged by Rube-publicans and lauded by Bill Clinton as he signed it into law.


From a letter to CBS Money Watch:  Assessing the consequences of NAFTA, Mark Thoma says “For the U.S. – where the Bill Clinton administration sold the agreement as a job-creating policy because U.S. exports would grow by more than its imports – the agreement has not lived up to its promise” (“Is Donald Trump right to call NAFTA a ‘disaster’?” Oct. 5).
Disappointingly, Prof. Thoma writes as if he were a politician rather than the economist that he is.  Politicians routinely sell freer trade as a source of net job and export creation.  Yet economists since Adam Smith – and ranging across the ideological spectrum from Milton Friedman to Paul Krugman – have consistently rejected such claims as justifications for free trade. Economists understand that freer trade neither increases nor decreases the total number of jobs in an economy.  Instead, freer trade changes the kinds of jobs performed in an economy by shifting jobs from industries that are comparatively inefficient to industries that are comparatively efficient.

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Consensus and Its Discontents


There is a fascinating study out on studies and results that centers upon what the researchers call the "paradox of unanimity."

In a police line-up, the probability that an individual is guilty increases with the first three witnesses who unanimously identify him or her, but then decreases with additional unanimous witness identifications. 

In a new paper to be published in The Proceedings of The Royal Society A, a team of researchers, Lachlan J. Gunn, et al., from Australia and France has further investigated this idea: The "paradox of unanimity."
"If many independent witnesses unanimously testify to the identity of a suspect of a crime, we assume they cannot all be wrong," coauthor Derek Abbott, a physicist and electronic engineer at The University of Adelaide, Australia, told Phys.org. "Unanimity is often assumed to be reliable. However, it turns out that the probability of a large number of people all agreeing is small, so our confidence in unanimity is ill-founded. This 'paradox of unanimity' shows that often we are far less certain than we think."
The researchers showed that, as the group of unanimously agreeing witnesses increases, the chance of them being correct decreases until it is no better than a random guess.
In police line-ups, the systemic error may be any kind of bias, such as how the line-up is presented to the witnesses or a personal bias held by the witnesses themselves. Importantly, the researchers showed that even a tiny bit of bias can have a very large impact on the results overall. Specifically, they show that when only 1% of the line-ups exhibit a bias toward a particular suspect, the probability that the witnesses are correct begins to decrease after only three unanimous identifications.
The mathematical reason for why this happens is found using Bayesian analysis, which can be understood in a simplistic way by looking at a biased coin. If a biased coin is designed to land on heads 55% of the time, then you would be able to tell after recording enough coin tosses that heads comes up more often than tails. The results would not indicate that the laws of probability for a binary system have changed, but that this particular system has failed. In a similar way, getting a large group of unanimous witnesses is so unlikely, according to the laws of probability, that it's more likely that the system is unreliable.



They supply some real world examples.
In the recent Volkswagen scandal the company fraudulently programmed a computer chip to run the engine in a mode that minimized diesel fuel emissions during emission tests. But in reality, the emissions did not meet standards when the cars were running on the road. The low emissions were too consistent and 'too good to be true.' The emissions team that outed Volkswagen initially got suspicious when they found that emissions were almost at the same level whether a car was new or five years old! The consistency betrayed the systemic bias introduced by the nefarious computer chip.
A famous case where overwhelming evidence was 'too good to be true' occurred in the 1993-2008 period. Police in Europe found the same female DNA in about 15 crime scenes across France, Germany, and Austria. This mysterious killer was dubbed the Phantom of Heilbronn and the police never found her. The DNA evidence was consistent and overwhelming, yet it was wrong. It turned out to be a systemic error. The cotton swabs used to collect the DNA samples were accidentally contaminated, by the same lady, in the factory that made the swabs.


This is important in corporate decisions. The dissenting voice should be welcomed. A wise committee should accept that difference of opinion and simply record there was a disagreement. The recording of the disagreement is not a negative, but a positive that demonstrates that a systemic bias is less likely.


Abbott's main point (and most controversial one): Mathematics is not exceptionally good at describing reality, and definitely not the "miracle" that some scientists have marveled at. Einstein, a mathematical non-Platonist, was one scientist who marveled at the power of mathematics. He asked, "How can it be that mathematics, being after all a product of human thought which is independent of experience, is so admirably appropriate to the objects of reality?" In 1959, the physicist and mathematician Eugene Wigner described this problem as "the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics." The conclusion on this miraculous correlation with reality? It's wrong.


Under ancient Jewish law, if a suspect on trial was unanimously found guilty by all judges, then the suspect was acquitted. This reasoning sounds counterintuitive, but the legislators of the time had noticed that unanimous agreement often indicates the presence of systemic error in the judicial process, even if the exact nature of the error is yet to be discovered. They intuitively reasoned that when something seems too good to be true, most likely a mistake was made.


A graph of Gunn's results of line-up studies (the probability that an individual is guilty increases with the first three witnesses who unanimously identify him or her, but then decreases with additional unanimous witness identifications. Different colored lines represent various failure/error rates, with yellow representing zero failure.):
too much evidence

 From Lisa Zyga in Phys.org             

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Subsidizing the Rich

With the discussion of The Big Short, I thought I would clutter it with my own experience. Admittedly, that is about as small a sample size as one can get but it is of some interest, I think.

I knew a real estate agent who worked in Maryland's high-end Louden County and I asked her if she had defaults in that rich community at the time of the 2008 crash. She allowed that she had and said one of the biggest was an owner who had purchased, sight unseen, four expensive homes when the banks were giving 125% of equity. He pocketed 25% of the purchase price of each and then defaulted on the payments. He was a Swiss national living in Europe, had no intention of paying the interest, simply took the 25% profit as a gift and walked away.


These kinds of mindless distortions are delicacies for predators. And we homeowners, investors, taxpayers and consumers are still paying for it.

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Cab Thoughts 1/6/16


Men are equal; it is not birth but virtue that makes the difference. Voltaire (1694 - 1778)
 
 
Much of the public debate is over the identification of the ISIS guys as Muslim. There is this righteous posturing that all Muslims are not involved. There is implicit in this position that some sort of intolerance is present in the West that is either feeding the madness or simply unseemly. I have seen the charge that all Muslims are ISIS guys in fact or in spirit only in radical mass email throwaways and have no idea why the debate should be focused upon this straw man. Perhaps because it is simply an easier and more righteous position.


We have a really good opportunity for a little experiment I would love to run on wackos who hope to become important. Apparently some grown men, taking their cue from Occupy Wall Street,  have decided for some reason to occupy an abandoned building, the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, in Oregon. My solution? Ignore them. No pictures. No names. No local TV outside. No concerned interviews with friends, neighbors or family. Ignore them.
 
The Challenger Deep is the deepest known point in the Earth's seabed hydrosphere, with a depth of 10,898 m (35,755 ft) to 10,916 m (35,814 ft) by direct measurement from submersibles, and slightly more by sonar bathymetry. It is in the Pacific Ocean, at the southern end of the Mariana Trench near the Mariana Islands group.
 
The death rate of middle-aged American whites — more particularly, working-class middle-aged American whites — is rising, while that of all other Americans continues to fall. A study by Princeton economists Angus Deaton (the 2015 Nobel laureate in economics) and Anne Case documented the number of deaths by suicide, alcohol use and drug use among working-class whites ages 45 to 54 has risen precipitously since 1999 — so precipitously that the overall death rate for this group increased 22%. That is a staggering change, epidemic-like.
 
Who is.....John Hanson?
 
Studies indicate that putting on a happy face actually makes you happier. It seems that the simple act of a physical smile, authentic or not, tricks your brain into thinking you're actually happy. Smiling also triggers us to think back to joyful memories, further improving mood. In addition to lifting mood and reducing stress, other research has shown that people who smile are thought to be more friendly and likeable, and smiling actually makes those around you cheerier as well.
 
The share of blue-collar jobs in the U.S. economy declined from 28% in 1970 to 17% in 2010. The Economic Policy Institute reports the real median hourly wage for white men with no more than a high school diploma declined from $19.76 in 1979 to $17.50 in 2014.
 
Kipling’s only son John was killed in WWI at the age of eighteen; his father's patriotism was always blamed as he lobbied for his son's commission although he was physically unfit. Kipling had lost his only daughter at sea and this was his only son, for whom he had written "If," perhaps his most famous poem. ("You'll be a man, my son.") Kipling was devastated and wrote the heartbreaking My Boy Jack which starts,
"Have you news of my boy Jack?'
Not this tide.
'When d'you think that he'll come back?'
Not with this wind blowing, and this tide."
 
New York Governor Eliot Spitzer had sex with prostitutes, meanwhile publicly declaring that sex work was “modern-day slavery.” He then signed a law that increased penalties for people caught doing it. When Spitzer was caught, he resigned. He's a felon, but he managed to avoid jail. 
 
Golden oldie:

Mars, the red planet named for the Roman god of war, has two tiny moons, Phobos and Deimos, whose names are derived from the Greek for Fear and Panic. These martian moons may well be captured asteroids originating in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter or perhaps from even more distant reaches of the Solar System. But Phobos orbits so close to Mars - about 5,800 kilometers above the surface compared to 400,000 kilometers for our Moon - that gravitational tidal forces are dragging it down. A recent analysis of the long grooves indicates that they may result from global stretching caused by tides -- the differing force of Mars' gravity on different sides of Phobos. These grooves may then be an early phase in the disintegration of Phobos into a ring of debris around Mars.
 
Dogs can see in color, though they most likely see colors similar to a color-blind human. They can see better when the light is low.



Voltaire's talent was for writing, and his temperament was towards toppling rather than upholding authority. At age twenty-one he was exiled from Paris for five months, having stepped on the wrong toes with some satiric verses about the decadent life at Versailles. Six months later he was arrested again for similar offences, this time put in the Bastille.
 
The deadliest natural disaster in the U.S. was the Galveston hurricane of 1900, which killed between 8,000-12,000 people.
 
The controversy over whether bisphenol A, a component of plastics and can linings, is dangerous to humans is now in its 17th year. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on research by the US and other governments around the world. “In a new study of Cincinnati-area kids, girls exposed to higher levels of bisphenol A before birth had more behavioral problems and were more anxious and over-active than those only exposed to small amounts of the chemical,” said Reuters Health. But the study began with a sample of 468 but analyzed only 237 or 239—it is not clear how many were actually analyzed from their data section in the results. Regardless, the sample is roughly 50 percent of their original sample. We never know (from the authors) how much the missing data contributed to the results.
 
John Hanson, the first president of the Continental Congress under the Articles of Confederation, is sometimes called the first president of the United States, but this is a misnomer, since the presidency did not exist as an executive position separate from Congress until the federal Constitution created the role upon its ratification in 1789.
 
Lassitude: n: 1. weariness of body or mind from strain, oppressive climate, etc.; lack of energy; listlessness; languor.
2. a condition of indolent indifference: the pleasant lassitude of the warm summer afternoon. ety: Lassitude stems from the Latin term lassus meaning "weary." The suffix -tude appears in abstract nouns of Latin origin.
 
Nathanial West wrote his first novel, The Dream Life of Balso Snell, about disgruntled characters inside the Trojan Horse. Only 500 copies of the book were printed when it was published in 1931.
 
While hardly definitive, this is a fascinating study, more for its conclusions than its substance: Older black men who have surgery for prostate cancer may have more complications and pay higher out-of-pocket costs than white men, a U.S. study suggests. Study author Dr. Quoc-Dien Trinh of Harvard Medical School and Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston said, “My interpretation is that all this talk about blacks having more biologically aggressive disease and hence worse survival may in fact be more of an access to care or access to treatment problem.” So any variation from the mean is suspect? These non-scientific pronouncements are common in the lay press but are getting more frequent in sciece where funding is so important. No scientific thinker would run to a block in a city that had seven cases of lymphoma with the thought that there was a local reason for the high rate--or would never have done so in the past. But now....
 
AAAAaaaaannnnnddddd.....a graph:
 
Chart of the Day

 

Monday, January 4, 2016

Emmanuel Conseil: Suspicion and Discovery

An amateur astronomer named Emmanuel Conseil discovered a "new star" or nova in the Triangulum Galaxy on Christmas Day. I was immediately suspicious. Emmanuel? Christmas?
Emmanuel is from the Hebrew name עִמָּנוּאֵל ('Immanu'el) meaning "God is with us". This was the foretold name of the Messiah in the Old Testament. It has been used in England since the 16th century in the spellings Emmanuel and Immanuel, though it has not been widespread.
"Conseil" means....."a council."
So....
Apparently this is all true. Mr. Conseil made the discovery using the online Slooh observatory, whose telescopes are located in the Canary Islands. It was the second time Conseil had discovered a nova this way. Some guy created a business renting telescope access.
It is all rather amazing.
Slooh is a robotic telescope service that can be viewed live through a web browser with Flash plug-in; that is it is an online astronomy platform with live-views and telescope rental for a fee. They use telescope feeds from all over the world.
The name Slooh comes from the word "slew" to indicate the movement of a telescope, modified with "ooh" to express pleasure and surprise.
A nova or "new star" is basically a gigantic nuclear explosion that occurs when a white dwarf star steals material — mostly hydrogen — from its stellar neighbor. When it gathers enough material, it causes a runaway nuclear fusion reaction, which blasts the material out into space. The nova is usually visible for several months afterward.
The Triangulum Galaxy, where the nova was discovered, is a spiral galaxy — a flat, rotating disc of stars, gas, and dust with a central bulge of stars. At 2.7 million light-years away, it's the most distant object you can see with the naked eye, according to "EarthSky."