Sunday, January 31, 2021

Surprised by Life

                                 Surprised by Life

Roger Penrose has won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2020. He used ingenious mathematical methods in his proof that black holes are a direct consequence of Albert Einstein’s general theory of relativity. Einstein did not himself believe that black holes really exist. 

His latest efforts are to develop what he calls Conformal Cyclic Cosmology (CCC) which says that, instead of a single Big Bang, the universe cycles from one eon to the next, each time starting out infinitely small and smooth before expanding and generating clumps of matter.

That matter eventually gets dragged into supermassive black holes which over the very long term (of the order of googol, that is 10 to the power of 100, years) ‘disappear with a pop’ by emitting Hawking radiation to set the stage for the next Big Bang.

Each universe leaves subtle imprints on the next cosmos when it pops into being, he told the audience: energy can ‘burst through’ from one universe to the next, at what he calls ‘Hawking points’.

However, this theory has gone down ‘very badly’ with his peers, he said. In response, there has been deathly silence: ‘that’s what we’ve had’.

Penrose is not a religious man. But using the models developed in his study of Black Holes he has calculated that the odds against an ordered universe happening by random chance are 10^10^30th to 1, against. The odds against life are 10^10^123rd to 1, against.

Saturday, January 30, 2021

Stats

 

                                                     Stats




 Combined with World Bank data for the same year, these datasets show that the poorest 20% of U.S. households have higher average consumption per person than the averages for all people in most nations of the OECD and Europe:



From 1929 to 2018, inflation-adjusted federal, state and local government current expenditures per U.S. resident ranged from $1,021 to $20,690 per year, with a median of $11,265 and an average of $10,664. In 2018, they were $20,566, or 93% above the average:

Inflation-Adjusted Government Spending Per Person



According to the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. households obtained about 85% of their income from the market and 15% from the government in 2016. This varied by income group on average as follows:

Income Source by Income Group

Friday, January 29, 2021

Genes and Social Science

                                                    Genes and Social Science


Paige Harden, the left-leaning behavioral geneticist, commenting on an article criticizing her work. It contains a lot of serious problems, not the least of which is a scientist identifying herself and her work in a political context:

"In this article, Erik Parens urges me and other scientists working in the field of social genomics to “curb [our] optimism” regarding how genetic discoveries could be used to advance progressive and egalitarian social goals. In my view, however, it is Parens and other critics of social genomics who need to curb their optimism, in two ways.

First, Parens is overly optimistic that social science can ever hope to be successful without genetics. In reality, social scientists have failed, time and time again, to produce interventions that bring about lasting improvements in people’s lives. There are many reasons for that failure. But one reason is that many scientists continue to engage in what the sociologist Jeremy Freese has called a “tacit collusion” to avoid reckoning, in their research designs and in their causal inferences, with the fact that people are genetically different from one another.

All interventions and policies are built on a model of how the world works: “If I change x, then y will happen.” A model of the world that pretends all people are genetically the same, or that the only thing people inherit from their parents is their environment, is a wrong model of how the world works. The more often our models of the world are wrong, the more often we will continue to fail in designing interventions and policies that do what they intend to do. The goal of integrating genetics into the social sciences is not to design boutique educational interventions tailored for children’s genotypes. It is to help rescue us from our current situation, where most educational interventions tested don’t work for anyone. This track record of failure plays directly into the hands of a right-wing that touts the ineffectiveness of intervention as evidence for its false narrative of genetic determinism.

Second, Parens and other critics are overly optimistic that their strategy of disapproval, discouragement, and disavowal of genetic research will be effective in neutralizing the pernicious ideologies of the far-right. What is the evidence that this strategy actually works? Herrnstein and Murray published “The Bell Curve” when I was 12 years old; Murray published “Human Diversity” when I was 37 years old; and in all that time, the predominant response from the political left has remained pretty much exactly the same – emphasize people’s genetic sameness, question the wisdom of doing genetic research at all, urge caution. Yet, the far-right is ascendant. In my view, the left’s response to genetic science simply preaches to its own choir. Meanwhile, this strategy of minimization allows right-wing ideologues to offer to “red-pill” people with the “forbidden knowledge” of genetic results.

What the left hasn’t done (yet) is formulate a messaging strategy that (a) reconciles the existence of human genetic differences with people’s moral and political commitments to human equality, and (b) is readily comprehensible outside the confines of the ivory tower. Reminding people that genes are a source of luck in their lives has the potential to be that message. Parens characterizes me as making a “generous hearted but large leap” to expect that portraying genes as luck will change people’s minds, but economic research suggests that reminding people of the role of luck in their lives does, in fact, make them more supportive of redistribution.

Overall, this article portrays me and others working in this space as “soft-pedaling” the dangers of social genomics being appropriated by the far right. But I am fully cognizant of the dangers. Parens is the one who is soft-pedaling. He is soft-pedaling the enormous damage done to progress in psychology, sociology, and other social sciences – fields that are tasked with improving people’s lives – by their refusal to engage with genetics. And, he is soft-pedaling the danger of simply continuing the left’s decades-old, easily-“red-pilled” rhetorical strategy at a time with right-wing ideologies are on the rise globally."




Thursday, January 28, 2021

Snow-Cholera

                                                         Snow-Cholera

Truth is slow to get traction, witness the well-established connection between citrus and scurvy before it was institutionalized. The famous Snow-Cholera epidemiological observation followed a "miasma" explanation that became the basis for an invested bureaucracy as they "followed the science." Like killing the cats during the Plague. Magness has an interesting article on the event.

In the 19th century, outbreaks of Cholera were common, and Britain deployed a “Board of Health” to manage and suppress the disease. England experienced a particularly severe wave of outbreaks in 1848 and 1849, with recurring instances over the next decade and a half. 

The Board of Health in London adopted the consensus belief that Cholera spread by miasmic properties, which is to say “bad air” that supposedly caused the disease to linger in the vicinity of sewage, garbage, and similar sanitary problems. Address these concerns and the disease would vanish, or so the logic followed. The Board of Health accordingly hired and deployed teams of sanitary inspectors around the city to oversee and regulate the improvement of sewage systems that would carry the perceived source of Cholera away.

Although the Board of Health was conceived of as a government body to lead the effort to improve and regulate sanitary conditions in accordance with scientific expertise, it quickly became an entrenched political interest devoted to the perpetuation of its own power and expansion of its own budget. 

The 19th century liberal philosopher Herbert Spencer included a devastating critique of the Board of Health in his 1851 book Social Statics, which argued that the bureaucratic properties of the agency had led it astray from its mission and even created an impediment to public health.  

Instead of taking immediate mitigation measures to prepare for an epidemic that had already stricken continental Europe, the Board devoted its energies to long-term engineering projects to improve the city’s sewer system. Some of these projects would eventually yield sanitary benefits. But they also provided lucrative money-making opportunities for politically connected contractors, and – due to the prevailing miasma theory – they largely misdiagnosed the causes of Cholera. Although the sewer improvements removed stagnant sources of waste and refuse, they also deposited them in the Thames – the major source of drinking water for the city. The “improvements,” premised on eliminating miasmas from the air, thereby further spread the water-carried disease.

Spencer’s indictment of the public health bureaucracy catalogued these and other successions of government missteps in fighting off Cholera. The public health agencies became a lucrative political interest, invested in holding up an erroneous “scientific consensus” about how the disease spread. Medical journals such as the Lancet became advocacy vehicles for expanding the public health bureaucracy’s “sanitary” oversight, along with accompanying budgetary appropriations.

Two years after Spencer wrote his chapter another Cholera outbreak hit London’s SoHo district, seemingly concentrated in the vicinity of a water pump. The outbreak is now regarded as one of the most famous events in the history of epidemiology . A physician named John Snow theorized that Cholera spread by contaminated water that carried an associated pathogen, rather than “bad air.” Facing intense skepticism from the miasma-oriented medical consensus viewpoint, Snow convinced the local council to remove the pump handle from the suspected source – the contaminated Broad Street well. Snow’s theory, as we now know, was correct and the natural experiment proved the water-born nature of the underlying pathogen.

Despite Snow’s discovery, the political interests behind the public health bureaucracy resisted its implications for the next decade as Cholera continued to ravage Britain’s cities. Just as Spencer predicted, the Board and its supportive medical establishment acted in the interest of their own perpetuation rather than true public health. 

The Lancet, whose owner Spencer identified in 1852 as an advocacy vehicle for expansive public health expenditures rather than scientific knowledge, published a harsh editorial denunciation of Snow in 1855. The General Board of Health commissioned a medical council investigation of Snow’s theory as well, attacking it as scientifically unsound. “After careful inquiry,” they wrote, “we see no reason to adopt this belief. We do not find it that the water was contaminated in the manner alleged.” Instead, the Board reverted back to the disproven but politically entrenched miasma theory: 

Thus, if the Broad Street pump did actually become a source of disease to persons dwelling at a distance, we believe that this may have depended on other organic impurities than those exclusively referred to, and may have arisen, not in its containing choleraic excrements, but simply in the fact of its impure waters having participated in the atmospheric infection of the district.

The Board’s position has since been thoroughly discredited. Indeed, it was a former rival of Snow and miasma theory adherent William Farr who statistically repeated and verified Snow’s theory during another outbreak in 1866. But the damage was already done. Although Snow’s work revealed the answer to the Cholera problem in 1854, the biggest obstacle to operationalizing this knowledge into fighting the disease was the public health bureaucracy itself and the entrenched political interests it had come to represent. Snow’s experience, in effect, proved the reality of Herbert Spencer’s assessment. Rather than improve public health, the government had only distorted and politicized the necessary scientific processes.

Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Identity Politics

                                                            Identity Politics 


... identity politics, has three key features. First, the creed of identity politics defines and divides Americans in terms of collective social identities. According to this new creed, our racial and sexual identities are more important than our common status as individuals equally endowed with fundamental rights.

Second, the creed of identity politics ranks these different racial and social groups in terms of privilege and power, with disproportionate moral worth allotted to each. It divides Americans into two groups: oppressors and victims. The more a group is considered oppressed, the more its members have a moral claim upon the rest of society. As for their supposed oppressors, they must atone and even be punished in perpetuity for their sins and those of their ancestors.

Third, the creed of identity politics teaches that America itself is to blame for oppression. America’s “electric cord” is not the creed of liberty and equality that connects citizens today to each other and to every generation of Americans past, present, and future. Rather, America’s “electric cord” is a heritage of oppression that the majority racial group inflicts upon minority groups, and identity politics is about assigning and absolving guilt for that oppression.
According to this new creed, Americans are not a people defined by their dedication to human equality, but a people defined by their perpetuation of racial and sexual oppression.---from Appendix III — “Created Equal or Identity Politics?” — from the 1776 Report that was just released by the President’s Advisory 1776 Commission

A new creed. Is it compatible with the U.S. Constitution? And, more importantly, does anyone care? There are agreed upon rules that order societies--until no one cares and there are no rules.

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

                                                Keystone XL

The executive action canceling the Keystone XL pipeline showcases the problems government has with forming allegiances with special interest groups.

Keystone XL is an expansion of an existing pipeline, called Keystone, that carries Canadian crude into the U.S. It was first proposed in July 2008 by TC Energy Corp. The line, which is now partially built but not operating, was eventually expected to transport 830,000 barrels of oil 1,210 miles from the Canadian oil sands to Steele City, Neb., where it would link to existing pipelines heading to Gulf Coast refineries. Environmentalist special interest groups opposed the pipeline because they feared spills--i.e. what happens if everything is not perfect--and, probably more importantly,  the oil comes from the high greenhouse energy source Canadian sands.

Now Biden has stopped work on it.

That decision makes the environmental special interest group happy. But it costs 10,000 union jobs. 10,000. And it makes the Canadians very unhappy because a market they have developed that wants their product has been disrupted by government fiat.

So, what has been achieved? The fear of a pipeline rupture has been decreased but, when one is concerned about things working perfectly one barely knows where to start. Or stop. Cars catch fire, planes fall down. What to do? And certainly, little progress is made by drying the Canadian sands up when China is building coal-fired plants hand over fist.

Somehow the symbolism of the pipeline was more important to the politicians than the 10,00 workers, Americans getting energy or Canada. On the surface, that is hard to explain. But it also promises other hard-to-explain rules and favors that will certainly come to compensate those who were offended or angered by the original action. So the initial narrow effect of pointed political favor ripples into larger and larger areas and creates a huge grotesque formed by very small grotesques.

Ah, politicians.

 

Monday, January 25, 2021

SEC

 


                                                               SEC

 Nasdaq is calling for all its listed companies to appoint within the next four years no fewer than two “diverse” directors: at least one woman, and one person from an underrepresented racial or ethnic group, or someone who identifies as LGBTQ. Any company failing this requirement would be obligated to explain why. This new standard now faces approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission. 

The SEC's decision should be fascinating because the SEC is tasked with safeguarding the investor. There may be other, peripheral factors in their decisions but the investor is their primary responsibility. Including a social engineering component to their job complicates their job tremendously--if they take it seriously.