International relations are very complex and have huge risks if nations misunderstand their adversary--or their partner. The problem in the Crimea is more than just a symbol to the Russians, down on their luck. It is important to their military strategy; much of their navy is based there. They want a warm water port. And they are ambitious (or nostalgic), as personified by their leader.
But it is significant to the West too. Europe needs Russian gas. The takeover was remarkably Nazi-like; the ethnic Russians longing for safety within Mother Russia sounds like the Germans' rationalizing the invasion of Austria and Czechoslovakia. And aggression from weakness can be dangerously unpredictable and symbolic. (e.g. Carter's strange attack on Iran.)
The Left is befuddled, the Right angry over Obama's response. Everyone is crying out for action. But they should be careful. Clearly the Americans are being only shepherded, not led. Obama's peculiar statement, "Russia's actions are a problem. They don't pose the number one national security threat to the United States. I continue to be much more concerned when it comes to our security with the prospect of a nuclear weapon going off in Manhattan," seems to be aimed at putting all his problems in a diminished context, paling before some unknown Apocalypse. The velleity of policy might be economic sanctions but, in these hands, Lord knows what the fallout would be. Punishing tiny economies like North Korea or Cuba is easy but Russia is a different matter. The spider web of finance is fragile in the most gentle hands.
Remember what happened when they decided to tax the luxury yacht industry?
But it is significant to the West too. Europe needs Russian gas. The takeover was remarkably Nazi-like; the ethnic Russians longing for safety within Mother Russia sounds like the Germans' rationalizing the invasion of Austria and Czechoslovakia. And aggression from weakness can be dangerously unpredictable and symbolic. (e.g. Carter's strange attack on Iran.)
The Left is befuddled, the Right angry over Obama's response. Everyone is crying out for action. But they should be careful. Clearly the Americans are being only shepherded, not led. Obama's peculiar statement, "Russia's actions are a problem. They don't pose the number one national security threat to the United States. I continue to be much more concerned when it comes to our security with the prospect of a nuclear weapon going off in Manhattan," seems to be aimed at putting all his problems in a diminished context, paling before some unknown Apocalypse. The velleity of policy might be economic sanctions but, in these hands, Lord knows what the fallout would be. Punishing tiny economies like North Korea or Cuba is easy but Russia is a different matter. The spider web of finance is fragile in the most gentle hands.
Remember what happened when they decided to tax the luxury yacht industry?
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