Monday, February 9, 2015

Books on Climate Change: The Third Horseman

Two new books have arrived with different slants on climate change. This is a thumbnail sketch of the first,
"The Third Horseman: Climate Change and the Great Famine of the 14th Century,"  by William Rosen. A second one will follow.

The Horsemen of the Apocalypse are four torments of mankind as seen and described by John the Evangelist in The Book of Revelations. The four riders are seen as symbolizing Conquest, War, Famine and Death respectively who precede the Final Judgment.
The third rider is Famine.
The third rider is the only rider with whom there is sound, actually speech. "When He broke the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying, “Come.” I looked, and behold, a black horse; and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”--Revelation 6:5-6
 "....and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine". This suggests to some that the black horse's famine drives up the price of grain but leave oil and wine supplies unaffected (though out of reach of the ordinary worker). The various political and economic views may make of these pronouncements what they will.

Rosen's book is a story like a dream of Pharaoh: Feast matures to famine.

From the end of the 9th century to the beginning of the 14th, the Northern Hemisphere was warmer than at any time in the last 8,000 years. Warming increased the amount of arable land — there were vineyards in northern England
The need for land on which to grow cereals drove deforestation. The warming period allowed populations to grow. A population explosion gave rise to towns, textile manufacturing and new wealthy classes. Huge economic, demographic and social evolution rode the wave of production. Warriors got greedy.
Then, near the end of the warming period, came the sudden and severe winters of 1309-1312, when polar bears could walk from Greenland to Iceland on pack ice. Early in that century, 10% of the population from the Atlantic to the Urals died. The cold conspired with rain to decrease the food supply. In 1315 there was rain for 155 consecutive days and topsoil was washed away. Upwards of half the arable land in much of Europe was gone; hunger resulted in early death, the death of babies. Even cannibalism. The Brothers Grimm began to write stories of terrible deprivation. Two separate animal epidemics killed nearly 80 percent of northern Europe’s livestock. Wars between Scotland and England, France and Flanders, and two rival claimants to the Holy Roman Empire destroyed much of the remaining farmland. One eighth of the European population died.
The Third Horseman, Famine, rides a black horse, and carries a set of scales; Famine is the result of imbalance.

If you survived, the Bubonic plague--the “Black Death”--followed in the mid-fourteenth century. The Black Plague was so terrible--it killed one third of the population of Europe, towns disappeared--that we forget the terrors of the Great Famine.

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