Thursday, February 5, 2015

Deficit and Debt

"At every step, we were told our goals were misguided or too ambitious; that we would crush jobs and explode deficits," Obama said in this year's State of the Union address. "Instead, we've seen the fastest economic growth in over a decade, our deficits cut by two-thirds, a stock market that has doubled, and health care inflation at its lowest rate in 50 years."



He is right regarding medical costs--but not for long, as recently reported by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Changes to the American health system will result in the government spending 2 trillion(!) dollars over the next decade and take in 642 billion dollars in new taxes, penalties and fees related to Obamacare, about 50,000 dollars per person. Nonetheless between 29 and 31 million people will still be without medical insurance.
And regarding the deficit, the presidential math is again correct: The deficit has shrunk from its astonishing $1.4 trillion in 2009 to a projected $468 billion this year. That's a lot--but manageable as a percentage of the economy — 2.6%, about the historical average, compared with 9.8% in 2009. But this isn't about the deficit — it's about the debt.
"Deficit" is the amount we spend in excess of what we bring in every fiscal year. "Debt" is the total amount of money borrowed over the years to cover those excesses. We pay interest on the debt.

At the end of this fiscal year, debt held by the public will be 74% of gross domestic product. That is, as the CBO notes, "more than twice what it was at the end of 2007 and higher than in any year since 1950." Scarier still, it's getting worse, not better; beginning in 2018, deficits start to grow again. As a result, "by 2025, in CBO's baseline projections, federal debt rises to nearly 79% of GDP."
This year, thanks to historically low rates, interest payments on the debt are projected to total $227 billion. By 2025, according to the CBO, that cost  will more than triple, to $827 billion.

The government's appetite for debt will raise the cost of private-sector borrowing, lowering economic growth. More, unlike at the start of the financial crisis, when debt amounted to just (!) 43% of GDP, the overhang of already-huge debt could "restrict policymakers' ability to use tax and spending policies to respond."
This is not about politics; every political group is a party to this problem. Now the Left thinks we can grow out of it, the Right wants to shut the whole spending problem down. But this is not "Obama's Problem" or "Bush's Problem," it is "Our Problem."

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