Thursday, September 13, 2018

The Answer to Debt

From an article in Reason by Veronique de Rugy  addressing the deficit:



"The great news is that if lawmakers decided to do the right thing, we would know what to do. There is not only a large amount of literature but also a consensus among economists about what fiscal adjustment packages are the most effective at reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio with the lowest level of short-term costs.

First, based on past experiences in developing countries, we know that spending-based adjustments are more successful than tax-based adjustments at reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio. They also last longer.

Second, consolidations based on spending cuts are more effective if they focus on reforming entitlement programs. Spending-based adjustments, unlike tax-based ones, also lead to long-term growth.

Third, spending-based packages can sometimes encourage economic growth in the short term. Tax-based ones never do. Even the International Monetary Fund recognizes in its research that when spending-based adjustments impose a short-term slowdown, the declines in consumption and GDP are three or four times smaller than tax-based fiscal consolidations. These findings were confirmed in a recent paper by Harvard economist Alberto Alesina and his co-authors.

Now, the more depressing part of this body of research is that a vast majority of the fiscal adjustment experiences end up as failures because politicians choose to raise taxes rather than cut spending. Maybe that's because they continue to be more committed to the special interests benefiting from the government programs—e.g., seniors—than to the long-term health of their country."

"The great news is that if lawmakers decided to do the right thing, we would know what to do." Managing spending works better and last longer in controlling debt and may encourage growth, as well.... If lawmakers decided to do the right thing....
The problem here is that such approach would be hard, would require careful management, and demand leadership.

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