The Press, the Bathoes and Groundhogs

The Cairo streets are alive with democratic fervor...or Islamic fervor...or something else. The economic crash was caused by greedy bankers...or inept regulators...or low interest rates...or something else. The health plan is a godsend...or a disaster...or unconstitutional...or something else. We are buffeted by conflicting winds of change. And, while the politicians and the press are episodically quite convinced and convincing, they are changable. Obama's State of the Union Speech was all spend and stimulus in the first half, all caution and frugality the second. Now it seems the leading candidate for the Republican nomination in 2012 is Jon Huntsman Jr.; where did he come from? Who decided that?

In 1954, June 18th, 480 men, led by an exile named Armas, armed and lightly trained by the United Sates invaded Guatemala with the intent of overthrowing the current president-for-life Arbenz. Their plan was not to engage the government forces because they knew they were too weak. (They lost half their men the first several days anyway--most at the hands of local townspeople.) This was convenient for Arbenz who was fearful that total destruction of this ragtag group would cast him as a tyrant in the eyes of the Americas. But while Armas had few men, he had a big radio--"The Voice of Liberation"--that touted itself as a jungle revolutionary station but was actually relayed through Honduras from Miami. This CIA funded effort gave out dramatic accounts of battles, heroes and victories as it charted a gradual advance of a nonexistent army towards its objective, the evil Arbenz. Eventually Arbanz resigned and Armas became president and the next assignation target.

Manipulation of information is as old as the Garden of Eden but usually less malevolent; it is usually just bias. Or conjecture. Or a result of a need to fill a space. The West--indeed everyone--is at a point where errors can have significant impact. Dithering, guessing or dogmatism are not going to be adequate responses to our highly leveraged problems. Probably the mob in Cairo is well intentioned, Jon Huntsman Jr. is likely a swell guy, the politicians in Washington may well know what they are doing but the world needs some leadership that is well grounded.

This country has no Delphi. And politicians--and the press--have to do more than come out every so often and make decisions based on whether or not they see their shadow.