Dogs, Parking Meters and the Rule of Law

There is a neighborhood area where the locals take their dogs to run with each other. It is a sizable park, not fenced but well away from pedestrian traffic, sometimes frequented by sunbathers in the early day. The dog people always come at dusk when they are off work, the dogs have been indoors all day and there are no people around. It has become an interesting little social subset, people of all ages, stripes and backgrounds joined by their care and love for dogs. The group is self selecting; the aggressive dogs, the less disciplined dogs, the dogs that run away are not brought to the park. The owners sit, some bring light folding chairs you see at high school ball games, and socialize while the dogs play. On Fridays people bring hor d'oeuvres and share some wine.

The city, like most, has a leash law. Any dog without a leash draws a 30 dollar ticket for its owner. It is a reasonable law. Dogs loose in the street can be a problem. Here in the dog park the dogs run in a controlled area without risk to themselves or others. But they are off their leashes.

Recently, drawn by the smell of potential fines, the police have moved in. They have actually begun to stake out the dog park and have started ticketing any owners there. Taking a law aimed at safety and quality of life in the city they have enforced the letter of the law to the detriment of both. Like parking meters which used to encourage the availability of parking spaces for businesses and now discourage parking at all, the leash law has become predatory. Initially the owners reacted by assigning lookouts, like pickets at a military camp, but gradually the group wore down. Now no one goes to the dog park.

Immigration and Our Failures

The integrity of the borders is likely to be a debated point this election. With 11 million illegal immigrants looking for work, subsidies and health care and an unknown number with bloody murder on their minds it should be. Bachman recently espoused a search-and-export plan for every single illegal, reminiscent of the ancient repatriation movement after the Civil War. Gingrich recently suggested a moratorium on illegals who have been here for 25 years. The suggestions will attract fire but do suggest a more significant question: How can a nation deal with a problem of this magnitude sensibly?

The American Mexican border is 1954 miles long and covers huge deserts, two major rivers, fierce heat and rugged hills. Twenty thousand border agents are spread along the border to enforce the country's immigration policy. Yet it is estimated that about one half million illegal immigrants cross the border every year. So far one suggestion taken seriously has been to build a fence along the border to contain the movement. While this effort has come a cropper the problem is no less serious. How can a border be defended?

There are some precedents. The Berlin Wall encompassed all of West Berlin for a distance of 91 miles and then also separated West Berlin from East Berlin for an additional 27 miles. There are some successful modern borders, North and South Korea, Israel and Everyone Else. These borders, however, have a characteristic in common: The willingness to kill the violator. The image of immigration units trapping and firing on drug dealers is one thing, trapping and killing families of illegals quite another. I do not mean to say that the failure of the nation to defend itself is a failure of will, like the horrid "Camp of the Saints", but there is a human and humane question here that complicates simple efficiency. Think of a military medical officer faced with a wounded enemy.

Illegal immigration is a journey, an illegal one, but a journey. It has a beginning, a trip and a destination. Unlike a vacation, the destination in immigration--legal or illegal--is more than geographic, it entails reward. At the end of the traveler's rainbow there is work, medical care, Walmart. We cannot influence the nature of the country the immigrant leaves and we clearly cannot efficiently interrupt the journey. But we can influence the rewards of coming to the U.S. illegally. First, any employer who hires non-citizens should be fined and jailed. This will be awkward as there is an industry of falsification of documents but we can manage it. Secondly, there should be no benefits for illegal immigrants, no health care and no schools. The notion that we cannot ask for identification because someone saw a bad World War II movie with "Papers, please" in it is absurd. And it is against the law to ask for identification in school applications.

That might be "Camp of the Saints."

Compartments and Psychological Homogeneity

A new phrase has emerged in contemporary conversation: compartmentalizing. It allows for the use of sets in thinking that may not overlap, that may be contradictory. It allows for a freedom in evaluation where someone might approach a new problem unencumbered by previous experience or decision. What used to be called inconsistent or cynical is now compartmentalizing.

I'm sure it has been around for a long time but I first noticed it with President Clinton who was excused his social behavior with this notion. The idea was that he was a competent leader, had been creative in managing the economy and his personal behavior was "something different", something to be examined by means other than were applied to the real reason he was there. This is more forgiving than the old utilitarian excuse that "at least he made the trains run on time."

In essence, this means that we are all watered by several different streams and we have different qualities with different growth and speed. So Michael Corleone can be a stone cold killer but a loving family man, Ted Bundy the Prince of Darkness to a young woman but a kind and interested conversationalist. It is in distinction to the "seed" notion of life--"psychological homogeneity"--which sees an individual as a whole, not as a crazy quilt of various and competing inclinations that break through to the surface at one time or another and under certain circumstances. And it feeds a modern need: We do not want to generalize, we do not want to judge.

There are times we should yield to the wisdom in the New Testament: By their fruits you will know them. Michael Corleone was a stone cold killer with a few exceptions; Bundy was The Prince of Darkness, but chatty. Both of these men may have something to say to us, just not much.

Sunday Sermon 11/27/11

Today was the first day of the new Mass and aside from "consubstantial" in the Creed was not very noteworthy. The music seemed particularly bad but that might have been regional. The gospel was another of the "prepare yourself while the master is away" gospels, not the exciting ones that inspired the book series of the vanishing spouses and workmen, "Left Behind," but the gentle reminder without the foolish virgins or unproductive servants. It does, however, have an unsettling line. The returning master is likened to "a man traveling abroad."

This is an extremely upsetting simile and I'll bet anything Christ delivered it with a smile. The notion of a traveling God, visiting the universe where man is not, invokes a shiver. What would he be doing? Sightseeing? Vacationing? Where would God go? Neptune? Alpha Centauri? What about us?

The Enlightenment, the reliance on reason, created tremendous problems for religion. Regardless of the various times and philosophies, religion relies on faith. The unreasonable, the miraculous, the the very essence of the unknowable was anathema to the Enlightenment and eventually this strictness created a reaction with a new reliance on the individual and the value of his own feelings, Romanticism. A quasi-enlightenment bridge for religion in this time was Deism. Deism was the belief in a God who created existence but did not interfere in life. The classic image was the Watchmaker, used by William Paley. (Paley asks himself what would he think if, while walking in a field, he came upon a stone? Not too much. But if he came upon a watch! What would that complexity imply!) God, as the Watchmaker, made this complex world but did not interfere with it. Once created, the watch ran on its own.

One can see this would be a highly satisfying analogy. Not only could a reasonable man look at the complexity of life and see the logic behind this complex Creator, he could rationalize why he need not hold God responsible when things went wrong. This analogy continues to this day in various guises, most recently in the Intelligent Design movement which argues the cellular information-based genetic system is a modern example of the computer oriented Watchmaker. So each age builds it own mirror.

The "traveling" master is anything but. We are his agents. Where we are, He is.

Cab Thoughts 11/26/11

The word "pharaoh" means "great house". I think it is literal, not meaning "family." Interesting that power is seen in a dwelling, like "White House."

So Michele Bachman shows up on the Jimmy Fallon Show and the band plays the song "Lyin' Ass Bitch" by Fishbone as she walks out. Now this is a comedy show and Bachman should expect the worst but the worst should not include gross disrespect. That the people on the show thought the joke was worth the disrespect--that is a real problem in the culture.

Barry Eisler, a thriller writer, turned down $500,000 to sign with St. Martin's publishing house and has signed with Amazon. This, if it continues, will be a major change in publishing and a blow to the publishers. Imagine Amazon just sending books to electronic readers without a stop at the publishing house. Huge. HUGE! I'm no longer a book collector, I collect antiques.

The Iowa caucus is in 6 weeks and the Republicans still look like the seven dwarfs. Ron Paul has tapped a hardcore angry crowd who will not give up. Gingrich looks to be a reasonable default candidate but he would be symbolic. He cannot win.

Women just hate Gingrich. He got tarred with the divorce papers somehow. The wife initiated the divorce and he brought some stuff to sign while she was in the hospital. The Dems just did a great job in smearing him. (The woman is still alive.) Gingrich is an intelligent guy with diffuse opinions that are not locked in to any passion (a negative with Republicans) but his real defect is that he loves power.

China is 20% of the world's population but the largest energy consumer in the world. Over 50% of the coal consumed is in China.
It is also currently building an incredible 27 nuclear plants.

Amy Chua, her family being my new poster child for the need for redistribution of personal wealth and talent replacing Gwyneth Paltrow, says that richest one percent of the people in the world have the wealth equivalent to 57% of the poor of the world. Wanna bet where those people live?

Is it true that Gingrich is a Catholic convert?

Yesterday was the anniversary of the sinking of The White Ship: http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/White+Ship

JFK: The Movie and the Problem

The Thanksgiving holiday, one of the best holidays and certainly the best secular one, has been spoiled for everyone who was awake and thinking in the mid 60's by the assassination of Jack Kennedy. That promising shift from the generation of Eisenhower to its sons, to youth and its potential, to the charismatic and the virile was just stopped cold by Oswald in Dallas. We defaulted back to the older, ponderous Lyndon Johnson, a true guardian of the Old Guard. That loss--of youth, of hope, of promise, of beauty--has never been overcome and we are reminded of it every Thanksgiving. One only wonders how much of the unrest in the 60's and 70's was a result.

An aspect of the assassination that has dogged its shadow has been the shameless exploitation of the atrocity by writers, politicians and artists. This exploitation, which has become almost a cult, believes--or says it believes--that the assassination was a conspiracy of a number of men, groups or organizations. Every aspect of the event has been picked over, every inconsistency of life magnified, every possibility made a probability. The result is that the event, right before many of our eyes, has been completely recreated and, like an alternative universe, continues without interference with its own laws, experts and history. It is very like those academic musings run wild. "If, instead, you assume that history and archeology was 300 years wrong--or falsified--and Moses was actually alive in the court of Akhenaton...." "If, instead, you assume there is a unexplained and unexplainable driving force in history..." "If, instead, you assume that everyone is possessed at birth by sexual urges towards their immediate family...." It is another victory of the Art of the Plausible.

This is nowhere more revolting than is seen in the movie "JFK" where a seemingly respectable director rewrites the assassination story according to a man whose grasp on the event is dangerously close to psychosis. Oliver Stone writes a story of the assassination through the eyes and the belief set of James Garrison, the District Attorney of New Orleans, who had arrested, charged, indicted and tried a local community figure, Clay Shaw, for involvement in the Kennedy murder. Shaw's arrest was virtually random. There was no evidence against him other than the word of a psychiatric patient who failed a lie detector test and refused to testify. How an American citizen could come under such unreasonable, whimsical charges has never been explained. But Garrison persisted and then Stone followed up after the laughable trial (where the jury took longer to find their seats than to find "not guilty") with a movie inexplicably presenting the Garrison thesis as within the same time zone as reason. Of course, all the facts of the assassination were changed to implicate the innocent, the shooting presented was almost a complete fiction and this all was delivered by Kevin Costner, a credible actor, with certainty and outrage. Anyone who knew anything about the assassination walked from the theater with their collective heads spinning. But many with less of a good grasp left alarmed and resentful. This constant barrage of misinformation has done a lot to undermine this country's credibility and value in the minds of its people who, after all, own and run it.

There are two bad lessons here. The first is there are people and industries in the world who, even in those cultures with the highest of ideals, will do anything, say anything, publish anything to make a buck. If possible they will take the Plausible-made-Art and create an industry of it with historians, academics, and franchises. The second is that they often hide their entrepreneurship in the gowns of Art. How many of our greatest artists have questioned the reliability of memory, the interaction of history and art--even to the point of their blending? So Stone calls Julian Barnes and Cormac McCarthy as witnesses for his defense.

Stone is more Goebbels than John Huston here. He is everything that is wrong with businessmen gone rogue. His product is harmful to the society, toxic to the young and delivered without an ounce of social conscience. The real story about Garrison is how is it possible that Clay Shaw could be treated like a Kafka character in the United States. Another would be a clarifying and cleansing explanation of all the facts and evidence that has been gathered over the years about the murder. This might set the country at ease. But there's probably not much money, or return on arrogance, in this. Instead why not take advantage of the distressed and confused citizens, contribute to their malaise and cash in.

In 1976 the U.S. House of representatives created a commission, The House Select Commission on Assassinations, to investigate all the evidence in the murder again. This time they applied all the newer technologies available as well. Aside from the single and erroneous "fourth bullet thesis" not a single new conclusion was reached. Instead this august deliberative body concluded there was no evidence of a conspiracy--but they believed one existed anyway.

Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving is a tricky word. It means gratitude but it implies more than something to be grateful for, it implies something to be grateful to.

In the fall of 1621 the Plymouth settlers had a celebratory meal with a local Indian tribe as part of a traditional English harvest festival. There are two accounts; no mention is made of a Day of Thanksgiving but they were probably happy; since their arrival they had a 50% mortality. It lasted three days. A Day of Thanksgiving, a day the English would have considered religious, was first held in the new land in 1623 following a needed rainfall. Various days of thanksgiving were celebrated by the country over the years, the first in commemoration of the end of the Revolution by Washington. In 1863, in the middle of the Civil War, Lincoln formally made Thanksgiving an annual event.

It is interesting to see these two men, Washington suspicious of organized religion and Lincoln harder to read, celebrating an official Thanksgiving, but both seem heartfelt, Lincoln's surprisingly so. Washington's is almost a mirror of the mindset of the time. The two proclamations are below.

The Thanksgiving Proclamation
New York, 3 October 1789

By the President of the United States of America: a Proclamation.

Whereas it is the duty of all Nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey his will, to be grateful for his benefits, and humbly to implore his protection and favor--and whereas both Houses of Congress have by their joint Committee requested me `to recommend to the People of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many signal favors of Almighty God especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness.'

Now therefore I do recommend and assign Thursday the 26th day of November next to be devoted by the People of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being, who is the beneficent Author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be -- That we may then all unite in rendering unto him our sincere and humble thanks -- for his kind care and protection of the People of this Country previous to their becoming a Nation--for the signal and manifold mercies, and the favorable interpositions of his Providence which we experienced in the tranquility, union, and plenty, which we have since enjoyed--for the peaceable and rational manner, in which we have been enabled to establish constitutions of government for our safety and happiness, and particularly the national One now lately instituted -- for the civil and religious liberty with which we are blessed; and the means we have of acquiring and diffusing useful knowledge; and in general for all the great and various favors which he hath been pleased to confer upon us.

And also that we may then unite in most humbly offering our prayers and supplications to the great Lord and Ruler of Nations and beseech him to pardon our national and other transgressions--to enable us all, whether in public or private stations, to perform our several and relative duties properly and punctually -- to render our national government a blessing to all the people, by constantly being a Government of wise, just, and constitutional laws, discreetly and faithfully executed and obeyed--to protect and guide all Sovereigns and Nations (especially such as have shewn [sic] kindness onto us) and to bless them with good government, peace, and concord -- To promote the knowledge and practice of true religion and virtue, and the encrease [sic] of science among them and us -- and generally to grant unto all Mankind such a degree of temporal prosperity as he alone knows to be best.

Given under my hand at the City of New-York the third day of October in the year of our Lord 1789.

George Washington

Proclamation Establishing Thanksgiving Day October 3, 1863

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God. In the midst of a civil war of unequalled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union. Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defence [sic], have not arrested the plough, the shuttle, or the ship; the axe had enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years, with large increase of freedom.

No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy.

It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and voice by the whole American people. I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to his tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquility and Union.

In testimony whereof, I have hereunto set my hand, and caused the seal of the United States to be affixed.

Done at the city of Washington, this third day of October, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, and of the independence of the United States the eighty-eighth.

Abraham Lincoln

A Bigger View of the Elephant

In a country where the main political debate centers on 1% of the population, an overall view of the country and the world might seem too much to digest. After all, don't we have our hands full with this 1% argument?

The following contains a number of snippets from the Simon Hunt November/December Economic Report made available by the Mauldin Report. It contains some nice observations about the world economy, its direction and some predictions. Some are quite shocking, like the vulnerability of the Chinese economy and the low likelihood of inflation. There is also the suggestion, not included, that businesses will try to move closer to their homes to manage costs better. As always there is a buyer for every seller, a seller for every buyer and, in general, at least two sides of any argument. These guys may be completely wrong, or half wrong. But it is a concise presentation (perhaps ineptly summarized) and worth the consideration.



The monetary assumption that what was appropriate for Germany in the EU would be appropriate for all of the other members. Herein lay the fault lines. The weak members were able to get a German credit rating which meant that they could borrow to consume goods and finance industry and infrastructure that otherwise would not have been possible. Banks, too, were happy to lend to the governments of these countries because they could take the loans to the ECB and use them as collateral for even more borrowing. A credit frenzy followed which has resulted in today's debt crisis.

The world will suffer from rolling recessions starting either next year or in 2013 lasting to about 2018. Global industrial production should fall by an average of 0.25% a year during this period.
• By then the process of deleveraging should have run its course. The world beyond 2018 will be a different place. World industrial production should average around 3% a year to 2030 compared with an average of 3.3% in the period 1990-2010. Monetary policy will also be quite different; global money supply will match global GDP, not the massive increase experienced since 2008.
• Asset inflation will be virtually non-existent

Each of the three principal pillars of the world economy, the USA, Europe and China, has their own problems, but they boil down to two simple ingredients: debt and demographics
The choice before Germany is then simple but harsh. Either to throw caution to the winds and hope that by printing money the Euro Zone can be saved and stability created or to accept the painful truth that "the Euro is an incoherent nonsense which, in its current form, is doing far more harm than good", as Liam Halligan wrote on Sunday.

The financial fate of Europe's banks and its governments are inextricably linked: because the banks are the primary source of funding for government deficits, government debt represents a large proportion of the asset base of most eurozone banks. Insolvency of one therefore threatens the insolvency of the other
In the end, the only way out is to increase saving." This is part of the process of deleveraging which is likely to take until around 2018 to run its course. These years will be characterized by rolling recessions and deflating asset prices interspaced by short periods of recovery.

Debt is bad for growth. "In the end, the only way out is to increase saving." This is part of the process of deleveraging which is likely to take until around 2018 to run its course. These years will be characterized by rolling recessions and deflating asset prices inter-spaced by short periods of recovery. So, as public debt rises and populations age, growth will fall. As growth falls, debt rises even more, reinforcing the downward impact on an already low growth rate.

"Aging will cause growth in household financial wealth to slow by more than two-thirds across countries we studied (USA, Japan, and W Europe), from 4.5% historically to 1.2% going forward. The slowing growth will cause the level of household financial wealth in 2024 to fall some 36% or by $31 trillion, below what it would have been had the higher historical growth rates persisted."

A surprising development is that the demographic profile of the USA is so much better than that of China. Once the USA puts its financial house in better order, which it will if not willingly, its growth expectations will be better than China's. As we say in Yorkshire, "Think on". For China, based on simple fundamentals, growth has peaked.

Bon Mots and Good Men

"Somebody said he's a stupid man's idea of what a smart man sounds like."

This effort of a man in search of a bon mot is that of Paul Krugman speaking about Newt Gingrich. It is brilliant in many ways. First it is innocent; "someone"--that is "someone else, not me"--said...and I am not responsible for the arrogant, complex slur but you can spread it if you like. Second, it diminishes Gingrich (who could use some diminishing) indirectly; he is not being called stupid, only attractive to stupid people. Third, it diminishes his supporters, who clearly are not going to make a competent decision in the voting booth, and raises the question in the minds of anyone who finds Gingrich attractive of their willingness to be stupid by association.

As the Republicans search for a candidate, the media treats it like "wack-a-mole"; anyone who rises as a frontrunner draws their fire. Bachman, who sounds like an interesting woman, is attacked and is gone. Cain's accusers are nowhere to be found after a evanescent life of a mayfly. Paul is a constant crank. Romney, alone, seems not worth their time.

This cruel behavior is not limited to a party but it is limiting to the democracy. Some hard decisions are coming down the road at us and will be made by either us or circumstances. I hope we would do a better job than circumstances. But arrogance and soundbites are not a fertile field for solutions. The Supercommittee microcosm should be an alarming wake-up call for anyone who has continued sanguine about our political process. Crisis management should be a last resort, not a routine policy.

Obama and his supporters have had some opportunity here and the results are not stellar. At least a consideration of some alternative ideas seems reasonable.

But the Hatfields and the McCoys never look to the future.

The Sense of an Ending: A Review

"I hate the way the British have of not being serious about being serious," says Adrian, a young man in Julian Barnes' Man Booker Prize winning novel "The Sense of an Ending." Barnes takes his character's criticism to heart and writes a serious story about time, history, memory and life. It is structured as an older man's reflections on his life with many quotable observations and a mystery.

The narrator is Tony, a comfortable retiree who has lived an unchallenged life of few successes and well tolerated failures. We first meet him in prep school with two friends and a newcomer, Adrian, who seems to the narrator as a cut above. They adolescently theorize and debate among themselves and with teachers about history ("History is that certainty produced at the point where the imperfections of memory meet the inadequacies of documentation") and Camus' musings on suicide and the assessed life. The friends separate, go to college, Tony has a restrained affair with Veronica and meets her family then breaks up with her. She takes up with Adrian who commits suicide. Eventually Tony marries Margaret (a woman with "clean edges"), they have a daughter, and the two eventually amicably divorce. Tony retires. Tony learns that Victoria's mother has died and has inexplicably left him money and Adrian's diary. Victoria, in possession of the diary, refuses to release it to him. The second half of the book concerns Tony's efforts to explain this strange bequest and Victoria's position.

The search for answers calls into question all of Tony's life, the events he experienced, his motives and the accuracy of his memories. "When we are young we invent different futures for ourselves, when we are old we invent different pasts for others." What evolves is a coming of age story in retrospect, a counterpoint to what has been revealed before.
In one of Tony's earlier observations he says adolescence was a "holding pen" from which he would be released into the adult life of "passion and change, ecstasy and despair." This never happens for him. He never matures into that intensity. Responsibility becomes safety, maturity cowardice.

Lack of desire, the failure to engage life does not make for a good protagonist and this short, well written story suffers from it. But this story is full of wisdom, not the least is history "isn't the lies of the victors..it's more the memories of the survivors, most of whom are neither victorious or defeated."

Sunday Sermon 11/21/11

Today's gospel is the "as long as you did it to the least of my brethren, you did it to me" gospel. It is connected to the shepherd analogy in the Old Testament where the good shepherd says he looks after the flock, the injured and lost of the flock but "the sleek and strong I will destroy."

This run of parables, the virgins, the "unprofitable servant" and the talents ends here and the next section of the bible takes up the reaction in Jerusalem which leads to Christ's death. The Catholic Church ends the liturgical year at this point and restarts the year next week in Advent and the beginning of the birth of Christ.

These parables are very hard because the judgment in them is hard. Why will the shepherd destroy the sleek and the strong? Are the foolish virgins really to be punished because they are not wise? Where is evil in all this unprofitable servant, foolish girls and doomed sleek and strong? It appears to all come together in this parable, where all are judged by their behavior to the weak, the hungry, the thirsty and the imprisoned. Despite our modern preoccupation with evil, it is negligence that is the failure here. The predator, the savage and the pirate in our lives is an outlier; we can try to protect ourselves from him but he does not determine our code, our principles of living. Our principles of living are the two great commandments. If they are not foremost in our lives we will drift. And these must be in our lives, not in our institutions. The Pharisees gave money to the poor but did it as an institutional requirement, not because it was part of their lives. (Curiously, this charitable view of the world is the single most distinctive aspect I have seen in Muslim youth.)

In the old Rheims Vulgate version, those who had made this behavior part of their being were called "the just."

Cab Thoughts 11/19/11

I expect that the Penn State nightmare will be front and center in the news and the courts indefinitely and that some people will be judged. Yet the perpetrators of the mortgage disaster remain untouched and are avidly watching the ticking clock of the statute of limitations. Why is that?

Politicians and nations are more symbolic than poets. China is upset that the United States is putting soldiers in Australia. How many? 2,500. China's area: 9,596,961 sq. mi. Population: 1,336,718,015. There are 300 people with AIDS in China for every soldier that will be in Australia.

Natural gas provides 17% of Pennsylvania's electricity, up from 2% in 2001, a more than 700% increase. Natural gas' gain has been coal's loss. Coal provides 46% of Pennsylvania's electricity and has declined from 57% in 2001. The carbon emission with gas is 50% of coal and this is clearly environmental progress. I don't doubt that regulation has been a factor here but the main factor has been the gas drilling, particularly shale. All the political posturing in the world cannot match the aggressive development of a cheaper alternative.

in 2007 there were 18,000 homicides in the United States. There were 37,000 suicides. That is astonishing.

12% of American Armed Forces veterans are unemployed and 100,000 are without homes today.

Americans between the ages of 26 and 64, 19.9% are without health insurance at any one time. In my experience this is usually a choice of one bill over the other.

If a state university is a creation and responsibility of the state, is the state responsible for school liabilities?

Are there female pedophiles?

I have a new plan. I want to start a virtual country. I think many would consider it avaunt guard and up to date. We could sell passports, flags, apply for admission to the U.N. (they hate borders anyway), get an embassy in some country which doesn't read their mail well or has a sense of humor. We could have parties, write a constitution, form religions. Maybe even a history. We could make a fortune with college students.

"Pure battery electric cars will most likely remain a niche for some time to come," said Bill Reinert, Toyota's U.S. national manager for advanced technology. "The market for these products is nearly all regulatory push, not market pull." Interestingly, they have a very high rate of pedestrian accidents because the pedestrian can't hear them coming.

Interesting article on paid informers said they are paid only if the target goes to jail and many always wear wires, constantly trolling the streets listening for a suspicious phrase or conversation.

Money for Nothing

An interesting number came out of a discussion with a friend recently. In the last year Penn State University received 780 million dollars in research grants. $780 million. (This is not going where you think.) The number of private companies spun out of Penn State in the last year: One.

In a culture that has a fetish about small business and capital development this is a surprising number. And Lee Hood's experience with CalTech comes to mind. When he was developing his protein synthesizer at Caltech he approached the president of the university with the prospect of doing a joint venture. The president not only declined, he was miffed. He did not think it proper for the university to sully its hands in so plebeian a thing as a for-profit company.

So the university is an island of reflective purity in this bustling work-a-day world. Aside from the obvious silliness of this conceit, there may be some useful information here. Perhaps the university's distance from the community is doing a disservice to its students, its community and its culture. The students might benefit from a bit of reality when they transition from the student world to the workplace. The university might benefit from a little feedback. And the society should be able to take advantage of all that research money in some tangible way.

Otherwise the culture might start thinking of its educational institutions as separate. As a distinct and self contained entity that has only its own survival and comfort in mind. Like a parasite, for example.

Life and The Worst Possible Outcome (WPO)

"Folks in Nebraska, like folks all across the country, aren't going to say to themselves, 'We're going to take a few thousand jobs if it means our kids are potentially drinking water that would damage their health." So said Mr. Obama in Omaha recently as the government officially put on hold the Keystone XL project, a pipeline program that would send Canadian oil to the United States for refining. The Canadian Prime minister said that, absent the pipeline, the Canadian oil would be sent to Asia.

This is a significant moment in a number of ways. At least 20,00 good, high paying jobs, direct and indirect, hinged on the building of the pipeline. Oil from a friendly nation now goes elsewhere. One wag said this shows the administration is not friendly towards unions but is friendly only towards public sector unions.

But there is a bigger problem here that is consistent throughout our society. It appears in Marcellus shale, smallpox, Gulf of Mexico oil rigs, food production, nuclear power plants--it is the fear of "The Worst Possible Outcome." The WPO. Rather than a challenge to be met, problems to be overcome, difficulties to manage, our culture looks at a possible project and sees the WPO. Unless we can be assured the WPO will not occur, we stop cold.

This, of course, is contrary to all aspects of life except government. Who would get pregnant? Who would build a house or buy one? Who would cross a bridge, fly in a plane, drive through a tunnel? Indeed who would leave their house? If every decision was made through the lens of the WPO no one would do anything. We would live the risk less life of algae.

Hannity and Sebelius: A Pox on both Their Houses

Kathleen Sebelius, the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services--and the woman who taught us all how to sneeze, has written an article in The New York Times on why we need to continue research into smallpox generally and smallpox vaccines in particular. This is a result of another outbreak of a problem stalking the democracy, the politicization of science.

The World Health Organization is having a debate soon on whether to destroy the remaining stores of smallpox currently held in approved microzoos. Since Jenner, humanity has been trying to eradicate smallpox, a savage illness with a high infectivity and mortality. The success we have had is a tribute to human science, innovation, persistence and cooperation. The disease was officially eradicated in 1980 and now these zoos are the last remaining reservoir of the organism. One would think a world holiday would be declared as we finish off the little devils.

But there are other considerations. Vaccinated subjects can sometimes reconstitute the killer organism into a virulent form to infect the subject and spread. There may be viral stores we are unaware of. And, the real worry, there may be homicidal maniacs out there who think the organism is good way to fulfill their goal of death and unhappiness. The DNA of the organism is well known and can be engineered by an experienced biologist. More, the Russians, through their infamous Biopreparat Program developed smallpox as a primary biological weapon and as a secondary carrier for more lethal viruses. (Apparently they were dissatisfied with the traditional 30% mortality and 70% misery with the single organism and developed attachments to Ebola and other such bugs that have a 100% mortality but are so lethal they kill the host before they can spread.)

There is a legitimate argument against the zoos: The group with the vaccine wins. But the notion that there can be a policing of laboratories to guard against such an effort is insane. And the Sebelius article has emerged for a single reason: An American company has developed a retroactive vaccine for smallpox. The vaccine works after the individual has contracted the disease. But because the threat of the illness is not immediate and straightforward, interest and support of the drug has raised the supercilious eyebrows of the Right. Hannity and Bortz have raised questions about its legitimacy as a pursuit. After all, isn't everyone immunized? Are rich people involved in the company? Are some of them Democrates? Is this possibly another Solyandra? We have vaccines, isn't this just overcure? Was undue influence involved? In the war against Obama everything is a weapon.

It is easy to criticize superficial political thinking but, in fairness, it is hard to prove the value of a drug like this. You cannot just give someone smallpox to prove the drug works and a Tom Clancy-like scenario might never develop. But the idea that a smallpox attack would stimulate a successful worldwide immunological campaign is quite naive.

This looks like a very valuable drug for dangerous times. The recent revelation of company influence and that insider trading is the exclusive right of our elected representatives makes everything look suspect.

But sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

(N.B. I own the company in question and when it falls further I intend to buy more.)

The Conceit of Sports

From the Greeks to the present, sport has been more than play. It is a mirror of the man, a training field for war and life, a blueprint and a crucible for the developing young. Practice, hard work, leadership, teamwork, goal setting, mental toughness, pain tolerance, preparation, health, sportsmanship, delayed gratification, exertion of the will--all these factors come into play in sport and, later, in life. So what did Penn State, about as high a level in college athletics as there is, teach its students/athletes and what does it teach us?

It teaches that at some point sport no longer is developmental, it is an end in itself and no longer teaches anything. The competitors have learned about as much as they are going to; they are now relying on their training not developing it. One might argue that we always learn but, when our formative years are over, learning is an accident, a by-product or a specific project of individual inspiration. As sport progress, the audience follows it for the diversion, the distraction, the fun and the empathy but the true uplifting moment--that character building moment that is the key to tragedy--that moment is rare. (The first and third Ali-Frazier boxing matches come to mind.) It is always hoped for but it is rare.

The problem with the Penn State scandal is that it is viewed as a problem with amateur athletics when in fact it is nothing of the sort. It is the end stage of athletics. It is a business. A product. A thing, an enjoyable thing but a thing nonetheless with all its youth, its nobility and its verisimilitude wrung out of it. Not to say it is not an enjoyable business to watch; it is. But the only time it mimics life is when it tries to pretend it is part of education, part of our growth.

At that moment it is like us: Hypocritical.

Joe Frazier

Joe Frazier is being buried today. If I had my way it would be a state funeral.

In my youth I drove to another state to watch him fight Ali the first time. It was Everyman assailing the tower. It was as close to Shakespeare as anything I had ever seen in sports. It was brutal, it was painful but everyone who was there, regardless of his sympathy or his bet, walked out of the fight a better person. Frazier was shorter, lighter and much less athletic than Ali. He went into the fight a buffoon. Ali ridiculed him, taunted him, denigrated him to the glee of the media who loved Ali because of his conscientious objection to the Vietnam War, his good looks, his entertaining glibness and his Muslim thinking. They thought this new Black Muslim notion was interesting and they felt Ali was a better guy. Ali, Kennedy aside, was the first man I can recall whose celebrity eclipsed his achievement--and he was one of the best fighters ever. Ever. But he was cruel.

With the help of his Muslim advisers, Ali polarized the fight by making it racial. It seems hard to believe now but Ali actually made it a fight between him, a Black Muslim, and Frazier, whom he successfully classified as white. The logic was a bit loose but Ali said Frazier was of a slave mentality, worked like a white man and believed in the America as seen by white men. (Ali actually once spoke at a KKK meeting against miscegenation.) The fight was a battle of human will, expert and savage on both sides. And Frazier heroically won. Ali's camp thought they had won and not without reason. It was close but Frazier won, a remarkable victory of the human spirit. He was hospitalized after the fight for three weeks.

They fought again twice, once an embarrassing clutch and jab fest that Ali "won" and the third, in Manila. Ali kept up his cruelty, introducing a gorilla puppet he called "Joe" and carrying it, or a facsimile, everywhere as he promoted the fight. Frazier, neither facile nor particularly bright, never could respond well and actually attacked Ali in frustration during a television interview. The fight was filled with the usual Ali drama although there was one strange event late at night when Ali showed up with a gun to threaten Frazier at his hotel. The fight was a war, fifteen rounds of toe-to-toe attack and defense. Into the fifteenth, Ali had come back in the thirteenth and fourteenth and the fight was a draw on most cards. The fifteenth would decide it. In the corner Ali told his manager to cut his gloves off, that he wanted to quit. In Frazier's corner the trainer realized that Frazier was blind in one eye (something he had hidden for years) and his good eye was closed. He rightfully threw in the towel against Frazier's wishes. At Frazier's withdrawal, Ali collapsed in his corner and had to be revived. Most think that had Frazier just answered the bell, Ali would have quit.

Strangely, Frazier provided Ali with his finest moments as a fighter and it defined his career. He was a brave and skilled fighter and only Frazier allowed him to show that. (His performance against Ken Norton where he fought for 10 rounds with a broken jaw and won a split decision was another such moment.)

But despite his skill and heroics, he was never the better man.

Sunday Sermon 11/13/11

Today's sermon, the sermon of the talents, is a tough one. In its place with the previous sermon, the wise and foolish virgins, it is especially difficult.
The virgins are waiting for the bridegroom who is late. Half have brought extra oil for their lamps, half have not. As the hour grows late and the half without the extra oil begin to lose their lamps, they go to the others and ask for help. They are refused and are forced to leave and buy more oil. In their absence, the bridegroom comes. In the next parable, today's, three servants are given money to hold in their master's absence. One is given 10,000 talents, one 2,000 and the last 1,000 each according to the master's assessment of his ability. The first two invest their portion and double it, the third, fearful of losing it, buries his. The master returns, lauds and rewards the first two and throws the third out.

These two gospels have been translated in many ways, sometimes as a tribute to selfishness on the part of the virgins, sometimes as a tribute to investing and interest as in the case of the talents, sometimes as a parable on the fulfillment of one's ability as if Christ was making a cross-cultural and language pun with "talent." (A "talent" was a measure of weight.) But it seems more difficult than any of these and more bleak. There seems in these two parables a remorseless emphasis on the responsibilities of the individual. Risk and responding to those risks with the acceptance of the consequences is paramount. No one can bail you out, hiding your responsibilities from danger is not safe. Moreover the master trusts the servant to do the right thing. Nor does he give these servants more than they can manage. He recognizes the differences among them. But he does have expectations. He expects his servants to make a difference.

There is another question: What does Christ mean when the third and unsuccessful servant describes the master as one who reaps where he does not sow and the master agrees with him? Who is such a man, a magician? A thief? A raider? Is it a reference to the gentiles who will be a default recipient of Christ's message? And is some irony implied when the third servant buries--plants--his assigned money?

Cab Thoughts 11/12/11

In the background of the Penn State drama, attorneys are flocking. Most seem interested in the civil liabilities, not the criminal ones. Schools are rich, very rich. How much of their wealth is at risk and is the Commonwealth at risk too?

China was responsible for 50% more greenhouse emissions in 2010 than the U.S.. The unspoken requirement of all atmospheric control is to control emerging nation economic growth. That will not be voluntary. Can anyone imagine a tough U.N. police force landing in Beijing with a pollution warrant?

In "State of Fear" Crichton argues that national leaders control their populations by giving them periodic problems--mostly fictional--that seem overwhelming. One wonders if they apply they same fiction to the solutions. We terrify ourselves about Iran's nuclear capacity and then soothe ourselves with the solution: Negotiations with Iran. Global warming: Stupid mercury laden light bulbs. Red menace: capitalism. It all sounds sometimes like the instructions one gets from the stewardess at the beginning of the flight about what to do during an unplanned water landing.

As heartless and cold as venture capital funds sound, there is a remarkably naive quality about many: They hate to miss out on something and are remarkably competitive and jealous. I've always thought it would be a great crime caper to have guys with a fake "hot product" show up in Silicon Valley and make the rounds, supported by cocktail party rumors that one or the other venture company was going to jump on it thus stampeding one guy to jump first. Then everyone skips out with the money.

Marcel Petiot, a physician who was an astonishing serial killer--maybe 150 people, Bundy level--, prowled occupied Paris at the end of the second war. People were disappearing all the time and no disappearance was investigated. He killed Jews, a group with fewer friends. It's a fascinating idea, the effort to investigate a homicide during a war in a country occupied by genocidal army.

It takes 14.5 seconds for the sun to provide as much energy to Earth as humanity consumes in a day. It takes 88 minutes for the sun to provide as much energy to Earth as humanity consumes in a year. But this is no gimme. Storage and the cost of non-ferrous metals will be the factor in how this promise is fulfilled.

There is a book about the Comanche called "Empire of the Summer Moon"; this was a small very violent group. After the Civil War they never numbered more than 4,000 people--men, women and children--in their entire 'nation' at any time. Yet, they ranged from the Rio Grande river west to what is now Colorado, north of present day Kansas and east to Missouri. After they got the horse they were called the finest light cavalry in the world.

Team Penn State or Penn State Nation?

One wonders about the team concept and how it translates to the world outside athletics. I have seen students from colleges with team backgrounds confounded in the workplace when they encounter competition from colleagues in the workplace. For all of its Japanese influenced "team building", companies love people with intense individual competitive backgrounds, like wrestling and boxing. Yet from business divisions to military units, the team concept is deeply taught and ingrained in modern society.

Now Penn State. How could this happen? Some of the response was clearly terror. The 28 year old graduate student called his dad; he has been raked for this--most recently by the angry doughty Irish Dowd--but it seems more forgivable to me than to her. He did not uncover or discover this madness; this was already known throughout the athletic program at least. Sandusky had a desert disparagingly named after him! It's much more likely the phone call to his dad was not "I can not believe what I just saw, what should I do?" but rather "It's true! What should I do?". That does not excuse inaction but the known institutional tolerence of it prior to his discovery certainly complicates it.

Nor does modern moral indifference fit, despite the eagerness of the right to make this a national cultural failure. People wept. People considered emergency room visits. Yet people did not consider intervention.

Academic institutions are self consciously isolated. They have their own police forces. Every time the police from the general community comes on campus everyone, rightfully or not, thinks of Chile. Sandusky was a great coach on a great team in a great and isolated university. Did this make it harder to deal with him? Or was this more egocentric?

Strong teams tolerate a lot of diversity but not disloyalty.

Penn State and the Rule of Errors

The career of Bill Buckner's career teaches a lot about life. He played 22 seasons in Major League Baseball, 2517 games, 9397 at bats, 2715 hits, was in the top ten in doubles ('81 and '83), had 174 homers, 1208 rbi's, top ten in stolen bases ('74 and '76), averaged .289 with an OBP of .321 and a fielding percentage of .991. He batted number two because he was an accomplished contact hitter. In 1985 he hit .299 with 16 homers and 110 rbi's.

This looks like a good career and he seems to have been an able player, certainly an above average number two hitter. But in the sixth game of the 1986 World Series with the Mets down to their last out, he misplayed a soft grounder to first which allowed the Mets to tie the game and eventually win it. In the seventh game the Mets won the series. Buckner is remembered for that single moment in his career--not for the other 22 years of accomplishment.

Baseball only gives errors for physical mistakes, not mental, emotional or character errors and, while most fans remember Buckner's error, if pressed, they will give him his due. Yet it is still a harsh reality in sports that defining moments may not be characteristic ones. But errors in judgment, errors in character and errors in virtue are invariably seen as characteristic ones. This fierce rule will ruin the lives of everyone at Penn State who has been involved in this mishandling of the Sanduskey scandal, will invalidate their accomplishments and destroy their futures.

Penn State and Camelot

The Penn State horror continues to evolve. As with most of these smoldering abuse cases the magnitude will probably increase. The responses have been varied. Some, provincial athletic opponents, are glad. Others, provincial alumni, are rallying a defense. Paterno himself has always been a polarizing figure, the most successful major college coach in history will draw indiscriminate fire from the envious and his holier-than-thou persona will ripen quickly in the heat.

Penn State's reputation as an entity that does things right and is still successful will disintegrate, the efforts of well-meaning men will dissolve. But the real question might never have an answer. How can these well-meaning, thoughtful men explain their inaction? One of the janitors was reportedly so upset he was thought initially to have a heart attack yet he did nothing. McQueary, clearly distraught, apparently did the minimum. We have yet to see the others.

What is lurking in the background is the apparent consideration of other factors in the evaluation of these atrocities, mitigating factors that influence the situation for those peripherally involved. Reputations, job risks, perhaps friendships and appearances and the like all seem to have been considered in the evaluation of the atrocities. Letters of the law were studied. The "French Defense," "responsible but not guilty," may have been considered. Right and wrong were only additional factors.

We have become an uncertain culture. College campuses by their nature are peculiarly isolated and self contained. And Heisenberg and Freud are dangerous in the hands of amateurs. The legal system encourages doubt. Indeed multiculturalism demands hesitant judgment. Decisions are made like a poker player; your two queens are only as good as the other players bets allow. Circumstances and setting determine all. And so making a decision on right and wrong sounds like the behavior of a wild eyed fundamentalist.

There was a demonstration by some kids last night in support of Paterno on his front lawn last night, a wonderful response of youth. They just do not understand. Penn State will never be the same and many pasts will be rewritten.

The Commons

In the last week I have been in both the Public Library in Boston and the converted rail station, The Grand Concourse, in Pittsburgh and I have a new respect for beautiful public places. These places, accessible to all, should raise anyone's spirits. The Concourse is elegant and beautiful, the Library simple and beautiful and both places give a glimpse into what man and nature have to offer. A quiet hour there is soothing, inspiring and reassuring. We can do some things very well and sometimes that is very good to know.

Our public places have drifted into commercial or sports venues and are hampered by utility and cost. The modern glass and metal architecture raise little other than hackles. Our own homes and work places usually can not relax or inspire us. Perhaps it is the secret of the Italians whose living quarters are never emphasized; they have too many lovely places to go. In our complex world there is real value in simplicity.

These wonderful old structures should be visited by everyone regularly. I would sooner have "make work programs" build and improve beautiful common living spaces than clean the streets. If people spent more time in lovely enviornments they would not need cleaned up after.

The 1% ers

Some curious numbers from the IRS:

The top one percent of earners in the United States includes 1.4 million tax returns. The threshold is 343,927, down from 410,000 in 2007.

Households making at least 154,633 were in the top 5%, 112,124 in the top 10%, 66,000for the top 25% and 32,00 the top 50%.

Total income in the top 1% fell 21% from 2008 to 2009 while the average tax rate for the group went from 23.3% to 24%. Total income for the bottom 50% fell 2% in the same period.

The national average effective tax rate across all income levels was 11.06

After tax income for the upper 1% almost tripled from 1979 to 2007. The middle group was up 40% and the bottom 20% was up 18%. These would be good numbers if the currency value was constant.

"The 1%" used to be a bad ass motorcycle club, now it's dentists, neurosurgeons and bond traders. And these groupings are surprisingly close; it's doubtful many in the country would think earning 343,000 dollars would put you in the top 1% of the country. And these are returns, not necessarily individuals, so husband and wife in a successful small business might easily make these numbers. I doubt that many people think of the lower end of this 1% as their enemy and the movie stars , power hitters and kindly old curmudgeon philanthropists on the upper end make tough targets too. "Envy is sadness at the success of others." Sadness. It's a true individual emotion but among some cultures, it may be hard to institutionalize.

In the Belly of the Beast #4

The last speaker. A young guy with an uncertain voice but his mind was very certain. The private sector problem led to a public sector bailout which will lead to a public sector crisis. He is long gold and short St. Joe's. (He hates St. Joe's.) There are two possible "tail events," the Fed, which he feels is dominated by academics and extremists who will continue to put money into the system and inflation. Zero rates does not increase risk, it decreases spending. The safe thing to do in the setting of decreasing rates is to sell equities and buy bonds, not to sell bonds and buy equities.

The value is not in the idea, it is in the evaluation of the idea.

He is avoiding emerging markets because of "cultural, social and legal disadvantages."

The short term will be negative. There are some things you must accept.

In the Belly of the Beast #3

The next guy many had come to see. He deals mostly with distressed securities and I thought him the least impressive of the speakers. He has opened a London office to deal with the coming debt problems in Europe. The banks must recapitalize either by selling stock and diluting the current owners (some of whom are governments) at low prices or by shrinking the balance sheet by selling declining assets.

The next guy was interesting, interested and intense. He was 30% in cash. He is hiring lawyers to figure out how the European governments will invalidate the Credit Securities Swaps and their holders. Being early in the distressed securities market is usually a mistake because, in a distressed market, the buyer is usually yourself; you can't sell to yourself. Worried about the "double decker bonds" which buys the Brazilian currency and shorts the high yield Brazilian bond. He shorted Japanese utilities because he thought the Chinese economy would decline and then the tsunami hit, ruined the utilities and made him look like a genius.

In the Belly of the Beast #2

The first speaker was in his 60's and had grown his investment business from 1 million to 17 billion over the years with a 14% return, 7 down quarters and two down years. A successful guy. He offered some general observations that everyone can learn from. The major one is that complexity and effort limits risk. Reward increases when the problem is difficult and you work hard. This is true even with MIT analysts. Hard work on hard problems gives you a great advantage. Second, no combination of growth and taxes will solve the current insolvency problem; something is going to bleed. Third, inflation does not work as a policy; it destroys the middle class. Fourth, the Orderly Liquidation Authority in Dodd-Frank will be a disaster. Incidentally, one of the companies he looked at last month had, on its books, 75 trillion dollars in derivatives. Trillion.

The next speaker was younger and had just sold all of his debt/equity portfolio and bought bonds. He was "surprised at the lack of engagement" to deal with the problem of sovereign debt. He said that hedge funds are, essentially, "a zero sum game." His emphasis will be on the European bank market where there will be bargains because of the debt crisis. He feels that the equity markets must be reorganized because small ownership with new managers with new options and reasons to develop and sell works well in rising markets but poorly in negative ones.

More to come.