Friday, May 4, 2012

Europe Debt

Total European debt is at 443% of GDP. US debt is 350%. European banks are leveraged over 30 to 1, US banks are about 15 to 1.

There are only two ways that countries in Europe can get their deficits under control and begin to shrink their debt-to-GDP ratios. They can either grow GDP faster than the growth of their debt, or reduce their debt. How can Spain, with 20% unemployment and a projected 6% deficit, grow enough? How can this possibly be resolved? One, default, making the bonds of Europe--and maybe the U.S.--worthless. Since Spain cannot inflate as the currency is not actually theirs, this will also devalue their products and work.Two, inflate their currencies (which an EU country can not do but the U.S. can) and drive down the value of  bonds and cash, drive up interest rates. Both solutions crunch economic growth.

No easy place to hide.

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