Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Staal

The Staal trade is more complicated than it appears. Staal  turned down a huge ten year offer from the Pens and then went public with his refusal. Then he stated he wanted to go only to Carolina. That destroyed his trade value and forced the Pens' hand. In a year he would be unrestricted and would be worthless to the Pens. The rumors in Pittsburgh are that Shero, the GM, was furious. Staal had publicly undercut them and had made his value to them considerably less.  Staal was Shero's first Pen pick and these guys take their relationships seriously. So, after composing himself, he did a deal with Carolina, replaced his brilliant third line center with a real--if lesser--third line center, picked up a promising defense-man and got a high draft choice.

The question is, Why did Carolina do it? They likely had Staal next year for nothing. It is possible they did it to establish his value to them. If this year he does not reveal himself as a first line center then maybe they would be able to negotiate a reasonable deal. But it was an expensive decision. The Pens got fair value for him and it did not have to go that way. (When the trade was announced in the Pittsburgh stadium where the draft was held, the fans--who loved Staal--cheered.)

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Definitions Versus Slogans

How would one define capitalism? The Krupp family owned many of the companies under the wartime production of Nazi Germany; was that capitalism? The Chinese are emerging as aggressive, enriching producers and competitors throughout the world; is that capitalism? Is the defining of "free enterprise" in the cold terms of the hard capital that is part of free enterprise reasonable or inaccurate?

Economies are made up of exchanges, labor and goods. Generally there are two kinds of goods, consumption goods and capital goods. Consumption goods are those that are produced and consumed. Capital goods are those goods used to create the consumption goods--the means of production like farms, factories, laboratories, etc. Every society above the hunter-gatherer level has both consumption and capital goods. (Maybe the bow and the arrow are capital goods.)

There are three main sociopolitical/economic systems. One, "communism," wherein the State owns and controls the means of production and distribution, two, "fascism," where the private citizen may own the capital goods, but the State tells him how and when it can be used, and how the products can be distributed, and, three, "private enterprise," where the private individual or company both owns and controls the means of production, and the market self-regulates the distribution of products. Are those definitions enough?

If those definitions are acceptable, "socialism" looks most like communism but has a mixture of these with varying degrees of penetration. For example, the United States owned a number of energy sources (dams and power plants) that actually competed with private systems and negotiated with private outlets for distribution. The American governmental owned postal system competes with a number of private systems. The State of Pennsylvania owns all the liquor stores in the state and competition with them is illegal.

So where does capitalism come in? Is it free enterprise? Does it have to be totally free, like there is nothing like "sort of pregnant" or "mostly secure?" Why does the capital part have such prominence rather than labor; can a farmer be a capitalist? Can he not be?

Monday, June 25, 2012

Aggregates and Snookie

An important concept in Keynesian thinking is the notion of "aggregates". Economic components are seen as groups and have the same value. Spending is spending. Saving is saving. Investing is investing. But are all transactions created equal? All investments equal? And are the people doing them endowed with the same abilities?  And does the society truly benefit the same from all these transactions?

This raises the dreaded Snookie question.

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Sunday Sermon 6/24/12

The readings today are about John. They are interesting because they are both quite specific and dismissive.

At John's circumcision there is a debate about his name. The family expects him to be named for his father but his mother and father both insist upon "John." despite there is no one in the family of that name. The parents do not say "That's the name the angel wants," they just insist on that name. His father then is miraculously cured of his speech problems and the neighbors are appropriately afraid. But none of this seems central; his naming does. John is named out of his family and time. He is not a part of anything; there is no continuity between him and the past.

When Paul is speaking about him in Acts, he says "When John was fulfilling his course" as if he were some agent playing some fatal card. Indeed he was supplanted by Christ and then horribly murdered but there seems to be no emotion here, no anger or regret. John, appearing isolated in the desert for a fixed purpose and time, comes and goes for a more important purpose.

The drama is never allowed to become too human.

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Cab Thoughts 6/23/12

Penn State's football program should be closed.

The soft drink, 7-Up, used to have lithium in it, a mood altering drug used for mania. It was taken out of the drink in 1950. The next decade the U.S. began getting weird. Coincidence?

So Commerce resigns, Justice gets Contempt and Obama invokes Privilege. How do you spell NIXON?

The Sandusky trial is a disaster on so many levels but shows a distorted moral and educational culture that has been twisted by athletics into something unrecognizable. So many people were willing to let this depravity continue. Some of this is undoubtedly from our tolerance for behavior and our unwillingness to make judgments (read indifference.) But this is an outrage. The point is not that he will be found guilty--he might not. The point is that everyone associated with him thought it was going on and did nothing because the athletic/school culture did not allow interference. If the NCAA does not blow this football program up it has no relevance--or soul. Any other entity, public or private, would be selling its furniture and closing. The people of Pennsylvania should close this institution, plow its fields with salt and start over.

GTT stands for "Gone to Texas," a common phrase in the early United States (often scrawled on the wall of an abandoned house), where Texas was seen as an option for a man in the U.S. seeking new opportunity or, more commonly, relief from debt.

The Penguins have become a different team in a single day.

Ha-Joon Chang in his book "23 things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism" raises an interesting point. In discussing the errors of Long Term Capital Management and Bernanke's admission that it was a 'mistake ...(to)...presume that the self-interest of organizations, specifically banks, is such that they were best capable of protecting shareholders and equity in the firms' he notes that "self-interest will protect people only when they know what is going on and how to deal with it."
It doesn't matter how good your intentions are if your working hypothesis is wrong.

This week is the anniversary of the Battle of Chalons in 451. The battle is historically important as one of the first battles fought by allies who hated each other against an opponent they hated more. It stopped Attila's advance and showed him human and involved an unbelievable number of men (it was said up to 250,000 men died but modern skeptics number the combatants at a much lower number.) It is also remarkable for a small quality: No one knows where the battle was fought. So much for glory.

16% of the world's electricity is hydroelectric generated and it rises every year. It's 95% in Norway, 85% in Brazil:
Share of Electricity from Hydropower in Top Generating Countries, 2011

And, since we're doing bar graphs...

Friday, June 22, 2012

A Truth That Must Not Be Spoken

World production of CO2 reached 31.6 gigatonnes in 2011, the highest ever. But the IEA report also notes that American CO2 production is down, way down.

The carbon footprint of a typical American is back to 1964 levels and US emissions are falling faster than necessary to meet the Copenhagen Accord goal of 17% reduction by 2020. The IEA reports that the U.S. has decreased 430 million tonnes of CO2,  equal to all CO2 from all Canadians outside Alberta.

Now one would think that everyone would be thrilled with this progress. But the American press is strangely silent. The Green movement is strangely silent. Why is that?

One explanation might be that the fall in emissions is due to the adoption of natural gas. That is still a carbon producer and, like any religion, the environmental movement has no sliding scale for mortal sins.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Prometheus

The FBI is called to the wrong building to investigate a bomb threat in Dallas, the two heroes in the story accidentally find the bomb in the building next door, the bomb expert called to defuse the bomb states he can defuse it but instead just sits and watches the bomb as the clock ticks down and the bomb explodes, the building is destroyed and looks exactly like the Federal Building in Oklahoma City attacked by McVeigh and the sequence ends with the two main characters who found the bomb being harangued by the FBI as if they were responsible for the explosion.

Why was the FBI called? Why were they called to the wrong building? Why did the FBI heroes investigate the building next door? Was the finding of the bomb a coincidence? Why does the bomb expert not defuse the bomb? Why does he chose to die? What does the destroyed building looking like the Oklahoma City bombing mean? What logic is behind blaming the explosion on the FBI personnel who found the bomb?

This is a superficial summary of the beginning of The X-Files movie but these questions were not answered. More, they were not asked. Welcome to the Drama of Innuendo, a growing technique in movies.
Perhaps we are just not paying attention anymore, perhaps we accept any stimulation as enjoyable whether it is reasonable or not.

Enter "Prometheus", a huge movie project by Ripley Scott that traces a period before the time of "Alien." Like X-Files it raises countless unexplained questions, plots and coincidences. Like X-Files, none are these questions are even asked, let alone answered. Like X-Files, this craziness was distinctly enjoyable and satisfying.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

The Private Sector is Doing Just Fine

National wealth has declined 40% to the level of 1992.

According to the Census Bureau, the start-up rate, measured as a share of all firms, has plunged to 7% from 9% in 2008 and from 11% in 2006. That pace is almost half the 1980s' peak of 13%. New job creation from start-ups has fallen from over 40% in that decade, when business formation exploded and the economy saw huge gains. In the1980s these young entrepreneurial firms accounted for 20% of total private-sector U.S. employment vs. just 12% now. 

There is no evidence that the large company denominator is any bigger to explain this.

Seeing these numbers and being publicly optimistic about them has crossed the line from vaguely overwhelmed to pointedly insincere.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Omens

A bird fell on me from out of the sky last night.

Is there a statute of limitations on auguries?

Monday, June 18, 2012

The Government-Citizen Partnership

While there a many problems in this political/economic landscape, the bank risks are significant ones and the most obviously recent. Here is Lawrence Lessig on Saturday's "Up w/Chris Hayes" (via Jim's Slog) talking about Jamie Dimon and BoA. What is interesting is that there is an element in what he says that sounds urgent and specific, as if this political influence and distortion of our system is somehow unique. Instead it is less specific and more metaphorical. For example, is this "crisis" worse than the ideological sub-prime mortgage crisis? And is it more politically manipulated?:

"The real story here is the fact that these guys are gambling because there's a government that's going to back them up. There's a bail-out that's going to come. And the most striking thing...for me was: here's a guy who's already demonstrated they can blow up the economy. And now another explosion goes off.

The fundamental reason why we should be afraid of them is the regulatory structure that makes it so that when they blow up we all go down with them. And the Senate is filled with a bunch of people who only want to make this guy happy. Now why is that?

It's because they know that this guy has the power to blackmail both the Democratic and Republican Party parties because if you don't have some kind of support from Wall Street, you lose the election! So it is the power he has in the political system that makes this so terrifying. This is the first financial crisis in the history of United States where the people who caused the crisis have enough power to block any effective reform that led to that crisis. And that's what we should be terrified about."

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Sunday Sermon 6/17/12

"Heavenly Realms" appears four times in the New Testament, all in Paul's Epistle to the Ephesians. At the time Paul was discussing the relationship between the Gospel, the Church, the Jews and the Gentiles.

At first the phrase "Heavenly Realms" seemed to mean heaven, with Christ at the right hand of God in the heavenly realms. Then it seems as if it is metaphorical. But quickly it is obvious that it means more than that, that "Heaven" itself is too provincial for the phrase, just as the Jews are too provincial a target for the New Testament.

This "Heavenly Realm" is the spiritual world that exists as a parallel universe with the physical one, throughout all creation. This realm must be infused with the wisdom of God which has been hidden from everyone, even the Jews, until Christ. The conflict in life is not with "flesh and blood" but with the negative spiritual forces. Negative spiritual forces. This implies a very Eastern-like conflict between God and real opponents--not just the uninitiated or the ignorant--but entities that oppose the wisdom of God.

Often evil is expressed as the misuse of a good trait, satiation vs. gluttony or sensuality vs. lust. Here evil seems more concrete and more alien.  

Saturday, June 16, 2012

Cab Thoughts 6/16/12

The Onion's take on the fine for swearing in Maine town: "someday only the rich will swear."

So now that the military has taken over again in Egypt, what part of the Arab Spring are we in? Or has the old winter just sprung back?

For all you who believe that the stock market can not be manipulated, and this in a land where there is only a nominal court but a lot of firing squads: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/china-stock-index-evokes-tiananmen-with-6489point-fall-20120605-1zsoe.htmlThe largest percentage of languages prefer the verb at the end (45%) like German, Hindi,  and Japanese, followed by the middle placement (43%) like English. The remaining 12% of the languages stick the verb out front like Fijian and  Irish.

The Federal Reserve’s detailed survey of consumer finances showed families’ median wealth plunged from $126,400 in 2007 to $77,300 in 2010 — a 39 percent decline. That put them on par with median wealth in 1992. This is astonishing. It is as if the people in this country have worked 20 years for nothing. The government must be scrutinizing itself, right? No self-respecting guy thinking himself a leader could look at this and shrug, right? Right?

Daniel Yergin stated on Sunday in the NYT that shale gas now provides 37% of America's gas supply, up from just 16% in February 2011 and 2% or less around 2000, and that US oil imports are down to 42% from 60%. Astonishing changes in energy use.

In the U.S., coal's market share fell from 45% to 36%, according to the latest EIA data


Obama's statement that the private sector is fine and we need more public sector jobs speaks volumes.  How would these jobs be supported? What would they do? Indeed all jobs are created equal.

Friday, June 15, 2012

Regulators: Friends and Foes


Thomas Fanning, the CEO of the Southern Company, in his Saturday interview with the Wall Street Journal, was dismissive of gas energy and renewables. He has a strong position. He and his company benefit from state mandated contracts for their nuclear power plant currently under construction using taxpayers dollars. If it comes in on budget it will cost the taxpayers of Georgia $14 billion dollars. To build an equivalent amount of capacity using natural gas would cost $2 billion. So the Georgia taxpayer is on the hook for 7 times the cost.

Of course, the taxpayer had no choice. This deal was made between government and Fanning and the Georgia taxpayer has no opportunity to switch. Nor will the regulators allow a competitor.

This is what government thinks is capitalism.

No wonder Mr. Fanning is so smug.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Biblical Truths

Bible sales are up 10% compounded annually since 2006. But Bible illiteracy is up as well. Several surveys, one clearly multiple choice, has revealed the following:
       1. Less than half of all adult Americans can name the first book of the Bible (Genesis, in Hebrew, unfortunately, Bereshit,) or the four Gospels of the New Testament (Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John).
2. More than 80 percent of born-again or evangelical Chris­tians believe that "God helps those who help themselves" is a Bible verse.
3. More than half of graduating high school seniors guess that Sodom and Gomorrah were husband and wife.
4. One in ten adults believes that Joan of Arc was Noah's wife. (My personal favorite.)

Does this mean anything? Maybe people plan to read the Bible they bought. Maybe they bought it for someone else who they thought needed it, or knew would read it. Maybe they just could not turn that Witness away from the door. Or maybe we've changed. The Bible's influence in the United States over the years has been profound, as a teaching method alone. All those 19th Century letters from the common man in the Civil War were shot through with New and Old Testament influence and diction. And the Bible had some lessons to teach that were well remembered, especially as Heavenly censure and advice.

But now it may have all dissipated. Maybe we go nowhere for censure, nowhere for advice. And maybe our standards are lowered to half-mast. And maybe we are not even what we eat, or what we read but what we bought.

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

We Do Not Deserve Him

"Obama has an ambitious second-term agenda," wrote Ryan Lizza in this week's New Yorker. "The President has said that the most important policy he could address in his second term is climate change," to "improve the world." No national economic growth, no demographic adjustments, no war reduction, no crime prevention, no inflation control, no response to shifts in world military and economic leadership, no clarification of a national vision.

This guy has the wrong job. He should not be President; we are too small, too petty, too gritty for his aims. (The question of his abilities will go unasked.) He should have something with an international reach and a moral base.

Something with great outfits. Maybe a Ecumenical Patriarch, a Patriarch, or a Metropolitan for the Orthodox Church.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

The Cycle of Structural Change

There are some chestnuts in investments that are held in great regard. "There is nothing new", "History repeats itself", "It is never "This time it's different"". This is ingrained in our belief in cycles. Things move in a constant sine wave, up and down, action and reaction, creation and destruction and recreation. Our little dialectic. So how do we look at this current world?

It is generally believed we are on the downside or bottoming out of a downside and will eventually labor back up. But there is another translation. What if we are in the middle of a new structural change?

We--our economy--are dependent upon work and production. Work and production are functions of labor, technology and capital. Capital has been in debate for centuries, technology always evolves but labor is more straightforward. The economy needs people willing to work, able to work and available to work. The "willing" and "able" is again easily confused and obscured in debate. But availability is more accessible. The working world is that large area between growing up and retirement. The growing up period seems to have lengthened; adolescence has become prolonged. The learning, student, maturing period is simply longer. Retirement has also lengthened, not just because people are living longer but they are retiring earlier. This seems to be a function of a number of factors, the failure of reward at work, the notion that there is reward in permanent leisure, the belief that this retirement leisure is deserved.

So the working period of life is shrinking but this period of work and production is what pays for adolescence and retirement. Production is being squeezed in the culture; fewer and fewer are producing for more and more.

Now technology might help a lot but that looks like a structural problem, not a cycle, unless it is the harbinger of a new, as yet unseen, cycle.

Monday, June 11, 2012

A Government Business Partnership

One of my favorite quotes is that of the French health official tried for his part in keeping blood products with known HIV contamination in use. He said, "I am responsible but not guilty." Perhaps something was lost in translation.

But did you know this? The U.S. companies extracting clotting factors from whole blood in the early 1980's paid donors, including prisoners and drug users. The guidelines were not followed (e.g. screening hepatitis) and, at the time, AIDS could not be tested for.  When American hemophiliacs contracted HIV after using the injected, blood-clotting drug made from unheated blood concentrates, the FDA recommended that Bayer dump their surplus on Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Argentina. That way the company could work off their inventory and still make profits from sales, despite it being pulled from the US market. In Hong Kong and Taiwan alone it is estimated that over one hundred hemophiliac patients contracted HIV after using the tainted medicine.

While it is perhaps easy to dismiss the soulless decisions of companies and government as mechanical and bureaucratic, behind every decision is a person. What is this? Emergent behavior?

Sunday, June 10, 2012

Sunday Sermon 6/10/12

Today's gospel is the New Covenant gospel, comparing the covenant with Moses to the new covenant with Christ. It is always unsettling to see the bloody bond made with Moses. It looks primitive and savage, blood all over an altar in the desert. And the new testament, with its horrible crucifixion, is worse.

Somehow this event at the Last Supper civilizes it a bit, makes it more abstract and cerebral. And social. There is a community aspect of this covenant, a sharing with sustenance and enjoyment qualities.

The Church itself has never seemed clear on this. For years the mass was celebrated as a symbolic recreation of the crucifixion, the priest with his back to the congregation as their representative, the focus on the recreated death of Christ. Now, the altar is turned around, the priest a fellow participant, and the emphasis is upon the Last Supper, not the crucifixion.

It's as if Christ wanted us to put our bloody hands behind us.

Saturday, June 9, 2012

Cab Thoughts 6/9/12

While addressing a crowd at a New York fundraiser, Obama said, we are "not going back to a set of policies that say you're on your own.  And that's essentially the theory of the other side.  George Romney -- wrong guy. Governor Romney."  George Romney? What is Obama doing? He has always had the benefit of the doubt, always been given leeway--57 states and the like. But not knowing the name of your opponent? Is it possible this guy is just a ditz? And what about this? "The private sector is doing fine. Where we're seeing weaknesses in our economy have to do with state and local government." We need to hire more government workers? Is there anyone that believes this aside from him? Does this "private sector" mean anyone who owns a going business but excludes workers?

BMW is building car capacity like crazy in China but research shows they may be building out the wrong capacity. They are building plants for small and efficient cars but recent trends show the Chinese are buying more and more SUVs.
China is becoming more American every day.

Santonio Holmes had a meltdown at practice. Ochocinco is cut. Owens has not been even worked out in a year. These talented guys are simply not worth their distractions. But interior linemen don't act like this.

The Walker recall vote in Wisconsin is quite an event that became a non-story. It is hard to understand why. The enormous and expensive effort by the unions to overturn a legitimate elected official whom they disliked because of policy should in itself be newsworthy. Recall elections are not made for that; they are not redo elections when you don't like the results of the first. And the point of contention was important: Walker was attacking the union revenue source, a sweetheart insurance deal, that benefited them but to the detriment of the taxpayer. They lost overwhelmingly. Almost 58%. But the polls were interesting too. They all showed Obama as a popular guy; the majority of people, who had just clobbered the union position, still favored Obama in the upcoming election. Again, "Nothing to see. Move on, please."

Golden Oldie: http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2010/10/westboro-baptist-church-and-retirement.html

“Together, there is the potential for both public and private market creditors to effect a change in how credit is funded and dispersed – our global monetary system. What that will look like is conjectural, but it is likely to be more hard money as opposed to fiat-based, or if still fiat-centric, less oriented to a dollar-based reserve currency. In either case, the transition is likely to be disruptive and an ill omen for seafaring investors.”  Ron Paul? Ron Hera? Frank Holmes? Jamie Lannister? No, Bill Gross of PIMCO. PIMCO! Talking about the rise of gold and the decline of currency! Mother of God.

Libyan-born al Qaeda operative Abu Yahya al-Libi was killed by a drone strike in Pakistan. He was high in the organization and was an expert in bomb-making. These bombs were triggered from afar and blew up strangers, often at random. His brother, commenting upon his "death by drone," said this drone method of murder was "inhumane."
This venture into homicidal etiquette is a slippery one. But somehow anyone in politics seems to be able to take an almost medieval myopia.  

An interesting book, "On Killing" by David Grossman, has some remarkable observations on the average infantryman over the gunpowder era. Marshall did a number of studies trying to explain the low rate of kills by riflemen in the second war. The results were consistently the same: only 15 to 20 percent of the American riflemen in combat during World War II would fire at the enemy. ... The question is why. ... [The answer] is the simple and demonstrable fact that there is within most men an intense resistance to killing their fellow man. A resistance so strong that, in many circumstances, soldiers on the battlefield will die before they can overcome it " This exists across cultures and times. The Japanese were equally cautious; the Napoleonic infantryman as well. Studies on the guys who would vs. would not shoot to kill would be interesting.

"We never blame ourselves for our mistakes, we blame those who profit from them." This is from Simon at Politico, talking about Bill Clinton's strange public conflicts with the Obama campaign. He believes his animosity to Obama stems from Clinton's own error in advising his wife to fight over the South Carolina primary that Obama would win hugely, mainly on the vote of Black Democrats (80%). This huge confrontation loss--and Bill's gigantic miscalculation--led to legitimizing Obama among professionals, like the Kennedys and Napolitano, who then endorsed Obama and the super-delegates who felt an obligation to vote for a confirmed black guy.

Incidentally, should Obama lose, Hillary would have to run against an incumbent in 2016, a harder race, so Bill Clinton's hostility to Obama works against her. This is all very interesting stuff.

Johnson promises to be a disruptive force in the election. The PPP poll (www.publicpolicypolling.com) of Arizona had the race 50-43 Romney, without Johnson, but 45-41-9 Romney, with Johnson. A 7-point lead for Romney shrank to 4 points, with Johnson taking about 2 votes from Romney for every vote he claims from Obama's totals.  Older polling showed Johnson impacting similarly Virginia. This could be very bad for Romney. Johnson is not a crank; he has been a successful governor. One could make an argument that he is more experienced than either of the other two and more successful. And Ron Paul has laid the groundwork for this as a national position.

This is the Intrade "bets" on Obama's reelection. It's amazing people will do this. The Right is excited about the drop but it is still over 53% in Obama's favor.
http://therightnewz.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/ca35.png
Obama finds the allegations that the White house leaked the classified stories on the war against al Qaeda "offensive." But the NYT attributed its info to " three dozen" of the President’s "current and former advisers".  Anyway, is this any worse than the NYT telling al Qaeda how the U.S. was tracking then a few years ago? There seems to be some philosophical overlap there.

Friday, June 8, 2012

Objectivism Among the Alarmist Cults

The world is filled with alarmists because alarmism sells. Y2K, communist menace, health threats, Mayan prophesies--all of these fears from the plausible to the outrageous strike some cord in us, gives us some weird frisson, like the vampire movie or the roller coaster. And they all sell: Books, TV shows, grants, political following. So global warming, pro or con, progresses from a consideration and discussion to a franchise. This is no better seen than in FOX News where a passionate subset of the political community has set up shop, isolated, self-contained, fanning its own flames, and invisible to their opposition at MSNBC as MSNBC is to them.

No popular anxiety is more persistent across economies than the fear of economic collapse and, its obverse, the love of gold as a hedge against economic disorder. Many of gold's proponents become messianic and marginalized, some become hardened so that even when correct seem randomly so. Some are inflation theorists who believe in any commodity, some are mining experts who see gold as a resource of declining availability, some are doomsday seers preparing for an age of scorched earth and bartering. Usually these gold enthusiast are somewhere on the curve from worrier to cult. But sometime the wolf-crier is right. So one might worry about this quote musing on "how credit is funded and dispersed – our global monetary system," when his conclusion is "What that will look like is conjectural, but it is likely to be more hard money as opposed to fiat-based"--if the writer were a reasonable guy. The writer is Bill Gross, the head of the thoughtful, conservative PIMCO Fund family.

Now that is a story.

Thursday, June 7, 2012

When the Going Gets Tough..the Minorities Get Internment

After Pearl Harbor, the country was terrified, especially along the West Coast. The proximity of the attack was exaggerated by the large presence of the  American Japanese in California. Since there was no evidence of any Japanese-American involvement in the attack, the argument was made that the Japanese were lying low, waiting to pounce. Thus, the absence of something was proof it existed. Executive Order 9066, ordering the  forcible removal of Americans of Japanese descent from the Pacific coast, was signed by the liberal Roosevelt in 1942. 120,000 American citizens--Americans--were moved out of their homes into squalid camps and ancient Indian reservations.

This serves as another example of a rule in politics that should give caution to anyone expecting government to do the right thing: "When the going gets tough, everyone loses their principles."

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Leaders in Search of a Vacuum

A discussion has arisen on the nature of liberalism.

While there are countless sources, a good starting point is Locke"s Two Treatises of Government (1690) in which he states that government serves the people and their community, its power limited by the natural rights of individuals and natural law. (Burke did not believe this. It was too metaphysical and/or religious. He thought that people's rights evolved and were stored in the genetic structure of the society's institutions and traditions.) In Locke, the rights of life, liberty and property are inherent to man and not granted by society or its government.

The revolutions this inspired--or that evolved--were quite individually distinctive. The British slowly eroded and replaced the power of the King, the French killed everyone they could possibly blame for their social and political oppression, and the Americans, with their landlords and oppressors far away, had a revolt of limits and precision.

Ingrained in this idea of "inherent" rights, is the notion of the individual value of rational man. Jefferson, until he went to France, was a savage opponent of man as a governor; he felt that all of the defects in man were magnified when he became a leader. (He soften a bit in France, amazingly, and one wonders if it was not fortuitous that he was not present for the making of the formal constitution. He did, however, believe in the value of periodic revolution to cleanse the new generation of the past.) This respect for man's ability emerged in the 20th Century (somewhat as a result of the advance of scientific achievement) as confidence in man and, consequently, government; liberalism progressed from protecting people from government to protecting them through the use of government.

So government, the individual's former enemy, has now become the agent acting on behalf of the individual. And the Progressives are even more confident in the experts that the society can advance to lead it.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Gas and Hot Air

While Pennsylvania has historically been a reliable gas producer in the country, it has never been in the top 10 states in production. But in 2011 it produced 1.3 trillion cubic feet, rising to number 6 in the country. For the first 4 months it was number 4, behind Texas, Wyoming, and Louisiana.

This huge increase in production of natural gas is a direct result of the Marcellus find and expansion, a technological revolution that has gone unnoticed by government who think they, and not natural gas, are responsible for the decline in the the national use of coal fire plants.

Expanding natural gas to big trucks and heavy two axles would be a shovel-ready, economy expanding and liberating project that government could at least facilitate. Not one word from our moral leaders.

Perhaps these people are better at moral pronouncements and taking the high ground and less good at hard decisions and real leadership. Maybe after elections our moral leaders should be "installed" like a bishop or cardinal rather than take an oath of office.

Monday, June 4, 2012

Awarding the Outsider

Obama has awarded the Medal of Freedom, America's highest civilian honor, to Dolores Huerta.

Ms. Huerta is a community activist (with 20 arrests), an organizer of farm protests, honorary chair of the Democratic Socialists of America, very complementary of Hugo Chavez's rule in Venezuela, a feminist and homosexual activist, an advocate of amnesty for illegal immigrants, and author of the quote "Republicans hate Latinos"' She feels the American Southwest was stolen from Mexico (to paraphrase her: "We did not cross the border, the border crossed us.)  And she is the target of reporter Matthew Vadum's line in a piece about the award for FrontPage magazine: “As the saying goes, if you give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, but if you teach a man to fish, you feed him for a lifetime. Community organizers like Huerta don’t teach anyone how to fish: they teach activists how to steal their neighbors’ fish. This is what Huerta and her ilk call social justice.”

This curious decision, where the nation's highest award is given to a woman who has very little in common with the country awarding her, could easily be misunderstood. Was it done to teach us something? Was it one of those modern "participation" awards? Is it arrogance or defiance? Is it eccentric or expansive? Is it complementary or ironic?

It was an eerie moment as she received the award from the winner of the Noble Peace Prize.

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Sunday Sermon

This weeks gospel is the end of the remarkably short description that Matthew gives of the Resurrection and its aftermath. It is 20 verses long from the Resurrection to the end. In this chapter Christ organizes his church, using as authority "All power is given to me in heaven and earth."

The universe was overwhelming to the Old World; now that we understand it better, it only has become more so. It is so vast. And now may be multiple. What being could control it? What power would be necessary?

Enough to dwarf rising from the dead??

Saturday, June 2, 2012

Cab Thoughts 6/2/12

The Japanese are going to restart their nuclear program. Fukushima released 17% of the radiation during the Chernobyl disaster that caused substantial illness and increased cancer mortality. That they are restarting implies some significant problems with alternative cost and supply.


One of the characteristics of a culture is the holding of some concepts in common. Some things must be believed by all. If that is true, what is the responsibility of education? How can schools have huge education projects and yet hold no programs in common?

The South Park episode on Mormonism is very funny.

"Europe has been their alibi, their way to redemption since the war." This is Ferguson arguing that it is in Germany's political and financial interest to keep Greece in the E.U. and that they will do anything to accommodate them. Not many believe him.

I'm glad to see the Game of Thrones film pulled the punch on the Imp's injury in the battle. The book's injury is pretty gruesome.
With all the subsidiary products popping up it is looking more and more like Star Trek. Expect withdrawal symptoms throughout the land when the last episode airs this week.

More than 17 percent of Singapore’s households are millionaires.

Ex-President Bush was very funny at the White House installation of his presidential portrait. It was such a relief to have something lighthearted come out of government. The government is in trouble when George Bush is the highlight.

Since 2009, the Obama administration has awarded more than $1 billion to American companies to make advanced batteries for electric vehicles. Halfway to a six-year goal of producing one million electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, auto makers are barely at 50,000 cars. (WSJ)

Spain is cutting back on its subsidies of alternative energy. Spain's "investment" in solar photovoltaic alone is headed to skid to as little as $107 million in 2013 from $879 million this year and $1.5 billion last year. For new wind projects, investment should plunge to $963 million in 2013 and $244 million in 2014 from $2 billion this year. A sure-fire way to make something disappear is to make it more expensive than it is worth.

Truman is thought of as a pretty honest guy but, as his biography documents, it is difficult to be clean in a filthy environment. In the thirties, the Prendergast Democrat machine ran Kansas City and the city's votes ruled the state. In his biography of Truman, Robert Ferrell has reported that a single house at 912 Tracy Street managed to produce 141 voters, and a vacant lot at 700 Main Street yielded 112 voters. The Second District, with a population of 18,478, brought in 19,202 votes for Pender­gast's ticket, to 12  for the opposition. The total Kansas City vote  had 200,000 more voters than its actual population. When Truman ran for the Senate, the Second District gave him 15,145 votes, to 24 for his oppo­nent and that district, when combined with the votes of the other two Kansas City districts, accounted for the entire margin by which Tru­man carried the state. 

It makes one wonder what people opposed to voting id are thinking. There was a You Tube a while ago of a local community board interviewing a software guy on how easy it is to hack voting machines. Yet we continue allow the foxes to guard the hen house.
 
Binding of women's feet in China is ancient, over 1000 years old. The bird-like walk it creates is believed to be erotic. It starts at age two when a piece of white cloth about twenty feet long is wrapped around the child's feet, bending all the toes except the big toe inward and under the sole. Then a large stone is placed on top to crush the arch. Screaming and fainting is common. Failure is usually blamed on the mother's lack of strength and fortitude. The process takes several years. The whole procedure was abandoned in the second decade of the 20th century.

Friday, June 1, 2012

Greatness Among the Little People

Our politicians and moral leaders are also health care professionals. We should have known this: Remember when the Washington administration taught us how to sneeze? There is very little they think us capable of. And they think very highly of themselves. A bad combination.

Now comes the esteemed New York administration banning large drinks with sugar in them. No more "large coffee, cream and sugar" for me. Banned? The entire menu of popular sugary drinks found in delis, fast-food franchises and sports arenas, but not diet sodas, dairy based drinks or alcohol.

As crazy as this sounds, what is difficult to understand is the tolerance. Once you have made the moral decision to ban a neighbor's behavior, why be forgiving, especially when the forgiven objects have so much to damn them, like alcohol?

How can the qualities of moral outrage be strained?