Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Cab Thoughts 7/8/15

The rich tend to get richer not just because of higher returns to capital, as the French economist Thomas Piketty has argued, but because they have superior access to the political system and can use their connections to promote their interests.--Francis Fukuyama


Greek banks are preparing contingency plans for a possible “bail-in” of depositors amid fears
The plans, which call for a “haircut” of at least 30 per cent on deposits above €8,000, sketch out an increasingly likely scenario for at least one bank, the sources said.
A Greek bail-in could resemble the rescue plan agreed by Cyprus in 2013, when customers’ funds were seized to shore up the banks, with a haircut imposed on uninsured deposits over €100,000. (FT)
Ah, yes. Attack the savers. Willie Sutton economics.

The historian Stuart Finkel had the startling observation that communists have always acted more forcibly to undermine free association than to undermine free enterprise. Think about that.

200 million Chinese have driver’s licenses, and McKinsey expects that Chinese auto sales will grow by an average of 8% a year between now and 2020. The luxury market, however, is where the big bucks are being made. McKinsey expects luxury cars sales to grow by an impressive 12% a year over the same period. “Demand outstrips supply for our vehicles,” said Klaus Maier, president of the China Mercedes-Benz division. BMW is extremely popular in China; according to the company, it gets 20-30% of its total profits from China.

The Fed has opened the door for further tightening soon. That could be terrible news for a number of emerging markets as capital flees their economies in search of safety and more-attractive risk-adjusted rates.

Who is...imperial consort Cixi?

Ron Paul on the Cuban trade embargo:  “The supporters of the embargo . . . fall strangely silent when asked how trade with Cuba is so different than trade with Russia or China or Vietnam.”
Florida likely has few Chinese and Russian dissidents-voters.

Great news from Reuters: Vietnam is in talks with European and U.S. contractors to buy fighter jets, maritime patrol planes and unarmed drones, sources said, as it looks to beef up its aerial defenses in the face of China's growing assertiveness in disputed waters.
The battle-hardened country has already taken possession of three Russian-built Kilo-attack submarines and has three more on order as part of a $2.6 billion deal agreed in 2009. Upgrading its air force would give Vietnam one of the most potent militaries in Southeast Asia.
Yes. That is the same Vietnam.
The U.S. DoD’s official press release suggests Washington will play an active role in helping Vietnam to defend its claims via the build up of the country’s “maritime security capacity.”
Yes, this is the same Vietnam. We are just dust in government's wind.

An analysis showed the Greek debt could not be maintained. 'On Friday, Tsipris seized upon the report, describing it as “a great vindication for the Greek government as it confirms the obvious — that Greek debt is not sustainable.”' (NYT)
"Vindication," indeed. It was the government which caused the problem. Monetary and fiscal policies can certainly be manipulated by banks and governments, the question is always "What is the effect of those manipulations?" The distasteful personalities of these volunteer leaders aside, are they anything more than the sorcerer's apprentices?
All debt will be paid, either by the debtor or the creditor.

Defenestrate: v: 1. to throw (a person or thing) out of a window. Every once in a while a word merges with history. Defenestrate is a backformation of the noun defenestration, which entered the lexicon around 1618, when Bohemian insurgents in Prague threw two imperial regents and their secretary out of the windows of Hradčany (Prague Castle); this event is known as the Defenestration of Prague. Both of these terms derive from the Latin fenestra meaning "window."

Golden oldie:
http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2009/07/cucumbers-and-ice-rinks_31.html

Signs on the entrance to the gas chambers read: “Baths and disinfecting rooms.” Other notices read: “Cleanliness brings freedom!” It took 20 minutes to kill everyone in the chamber. The chambers at Auschwitz/Birkenau could kill 6,000 people a day.

Alan Greenspan said the U.S. is “way underestimating” the national debt which is currently more than $18 trillion.
“Largely because we are not including what I would call contingent liabilities, that is the issue of, which is answered by a question: what is the probability that in today’s environment JP Morgan would be allowed to default? The answer is zero or less,” he said.
“Now, that means that whole balance sheet is a contingent liability. Now to be sure, while it’s contingent, there’s no interest payments but ultimately that overhangs the structure because we have committed in so many different ways to guarantee this, that and the other thing. It’s not only Fannie and Freddie but it’s a whole series of financial institutions and, regrettably, it is also non-financial institutions.”
Asians much prefer chicken to beef, which is why Yum! Brands’ KFC stores in Asia are almost always jam-packed with customers, and why more than 50% of Yum Brands’ revenues come from outside the US.

There is a lot of talk about physicians and their disillusion with the ACA--especially electronic medical records. Krauthammer recently had a very pessimistic article on physicians wanting to retire. The estimate of MDs leaving as a result of ACA was 360,000. In fact, rather than lose 360,000 physicians, the nation’s gained nearly 100,000 practicing doctors in the past six years. The real factor in physician employment is their demographics: They are aging.
For the first time, the number of U.S. physicians in their mid-50s (or older) has outpaced the number of physicians between the ages of 35 and 54. Not all of these older doctors are still in practice, but a surprising number have stayed in the workforce. One major reason? Money. Physician reimbursement has steadily tightened over the years, forcing older doctors to work harder and stay longer if they want to maintain their earlier standard of living or fund ambitious retirement plans.

Generation Opportunity, a non-partisan youth advocacy organization, reported that while the official unemployment rate for 18- to 29-year-olds is 7.9%, it’s actually 13.8% if you include those who have given up looking for work.  According to the Center for American Progress, over 40 million Americans have student loan debt totaling $1.3 trillion, with the average loan balance around $27,000.

Citing an ongoing OIG and DoJ probe, Janet Yellen says the Fed is currently unable to comply with a Congressional subpoena requesting information regarding a 2012 incident in which the minutes from the FOMC's September meeting were leaked to consulting firm Medley Global Advisors.
So they are too investigated to comply with an investigation? Makes sense.

Upon the death of Emperor Xianfeng (1831-1861), his five-year-old son succeeded to the throne under the supervision of a Board of Regents. At the time of his father's death, his mother, imperial consort Cixi, had no political standing. In fact, she was not even considered the young emperor's official mother. The widowed Empress Zhen was officially the empress dowager. Both women distrusted the young emperor's Regents since they had poorly advised his father during the opium wars, and they worked together to both be recognized as Dowager Empresses -- and then staged a coup using the considerable wiles of Cixi. In a recent book, author Jung Chang believes Cixi created modern China.

While in political theory the making of law has traditionally been represented as the chief function of legislative bodies, their origin and main concern had little to do with the law in the narrow sense….  This is especially true of the Mother of Parliaments: the English legislature arose in a country where longer than elsewhere the rules of just conduct, the common law, were supposed to exist independently of political authority.  As late as the seventeenth century, it could still be questioned whether parliament could make law inconsistent with the common law.  The chief concern of what we call legislatures has always been the control and regulation of government….--Hayek

In the latest jobs report is this shocker: since the start of this economic downturn, the US has added 2.3 million "foreign-born" workers, offset by just 727K "native-born". This means that the "recovery" has almost entirely benefited foreign-born workers, to the tune of 3 to 1 relative to native-born Americans.

Citigroup said that the FOMC’s "biggest worry is not lift off and its market and economic implications, but what happens if the economic recovery dies of old age without the Fed having done anything to tighten." And, according to Citi's FX strategists, "if this were to occur, the USD would probably fall faster than it rose from July-March." A precursor to loss of faith in the Dollar's reserve currency status perhaps. Citi's Steven Englander says the Fed's second biggest nightmare is a rebound which is so fast, the Fed's entire carefully planned renormalization schedule collapses.

AAAAAaannnnnnndddddd.....a cartoon:

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