Saturday, March 10, 2018

Reverie

In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. --michael crichton 






Stalin believed that heavy industry was the key to gaining parity with western nations and so imposed on feudal Russia an enormous industrialization program focused on steel, coal, and oil. "Comrades" were dragooned into working in heavy industry; many literally became slaves. One government project, the White Sea Canal, used hundreds of thousands of slave laborers. During the years of the canal's construction, between 100,000 and 200,000 laborers (many of whom were women) died or were shot. The massive development of steel and other heavy industry did indeed increase the USSR's output, but the vast bulk of the production went to military uses while basic consumer goods like clothing, refrigerators and washing machines remained extremely scarce.
Food too.






From a letter to the NYT on "Trade War:" How stupid.  In a real war, foreigners literally kill us by shooting bullets and bombs our way; in a so-called “trade war,” foreigners literally enrich us by shipping goods and services our way – on terms that are especially attractive to us, and which each of us remains free to accept or to reject.
Another difference: in a real war, our government dispatches armed troops abroad to use violence to subdue and subjugate citizens of other nations – to subdue and subjugate ‘them.’  In a “trade war” our government dispatches armed customs agents domestically to use violence to subdue and subjugate citizens of our own nation – to subdue and subjugate us.





Ferguson has a metaphor of "Squares and Towers" that is probably going to catch on in discussion.

He pictures an ancient city, and the difference between squares, where people meet, and towers, where the power resides. For tech optimists, things did not go quite as they planned. An increasingly connected world should have led to an awesome world, but it didn’t work out that way. The power was not shifted to the “squares.” The obvious question is, why should connecting the entire world make it a better place? Connectedness has instead disrupted political hierarchies. Without tools like Twitter, campaigns like Donald Trump’s would not have won. Social media made the difference. Connectedness has created huge, monopolistic networks, Ferguson said, “and it will take a network to defeat a network.” In the network battlefield, the winner takes all. The financial crisis was a global network crisis. In a hyper-connected world, is the status quo sustainable?

In a lab setting, scientists have been able to reverse the aging process in cells. This cell process is now firmly under human control.



What is...The Promise Program?




Arie Luyendyk Jr. angered fans for pulling a fiance swap on The Bachelor finale this week. His brutal breakup to Becca Kurfin was aired unedited on Monday's finale, and then on Tuesday, he proposed to his runner-up, Lauren Burnham, on After the Rose. In doing so, he earned the dubious honor of becoming the first Bachelor to propose to two women in one season.
Becca wasn't the only person angered. Minnesota Representative Drew Christensen was so annoyed by Arie, he authored a bill banning Arie from his state. Becca is from Prior Lake, Minnesota, which is repped by Christensen. 
"I’m a man of my word—here’s the bill banning Arie," Christensen tweeted along with photos of the bill for the act, as well as his signature on it.
"The state of Minnesota hereby adopts a policy of zero tolerance of Arie Luyendyk, Jr. from season 22 of The Bachelor," his letter reads. "It is state policy that every person in the state has a right to live free from the presence of Arie Luyendyk, Jr. in the state." 





There is a crazy debate going on over the Pirates. For some reason some people feel that the owners should spend more money on them. The problem is very simple: The owners will spend only what the franchise can support. Other owners spend more money because their communities support them better--through higher populations and other franchises. (The Yankees have their own TV station.) The conundrum is this: The Pirates are worth a lot of money--but elsewhere. If they are to stay here, they are always going to be a bargain, build from the bottom up franchise. If more money is to be spent--or if the Nuttings cash out--it will not be in this town. The Nuttings should be supported, not vilified. That said, the problem has been that the Pirates, when they were drafting in the top five--sometimes first--have had very little to show for it. Remember Lincoln? Sanchez? Even Cole?



The Romans and Greeks would literally float a piece of burnt toast on top of the wine at events. The reason for this was that the toast took away some of the wine’s acridity. In early history wine was made and stored in animal skins, as well as many other things, so it was not nearly as good as it is today. This tradition involved offering the toast to the gods by standing up and extending the drink toward the sky while saying a prayer. Hence, "Toast!" Or so it is said.




From Goldfield's book, nostalgic for real liberalism: Not until 1943 did the government remove the racial classification "Hebrew" from immigration forms. Cornell University's president promised to prevent Jewish enrollment from making the school "unpleasant for first-class Gentile students." When Jonas Salk, who would invent the polio vaccine, applied for a fellowship, one of his recommenders wrote, "Dr. Salk is a member of the Jewish race but has, I believe, a very great capacity to get on with people."

According to Marketwatch, 1 in 3 young Americans spent more on coffee last year than they invested.


Sowell has a book on what he calls "Cosmic Justice,"  – the idea that humanity has any shot at fair, just, equal outcomes. It's not that he disagrees with the ideals of fairness, equality, or justice. He simply disagrees with the mindless implementation of them, the quasi-religious pursuit of them at all costs. He once wrote, "Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes said that a good catchword can stop thought for 50 years. The phrase “social justice” has stopped many people from thinking for at least a century — and counting." Justice, according to Sowell, is rooted in process. And when a cosmic injustice--plague, brigands, climate, genetics--arises, efforts to make the cosmic right invariably undermine the basics of daily justice. ""We cannot simply `do something' whenever we are morally indignant, while disdaining to consider the costs entailed."

One of the best and craziest signs I have seen: "We are the grandchildren of the witches you could not burn." One of the elements of modern life is the ability of someone to make an impact--and be appreciated--despite being overtly nuts.









The 14th Century China imperial court prohibited any foreign trade (without official permission) for about two centuries after 1371, even going so far as to forbid the construction of new seagoing ships in 1436.



Golden oldie:







steeleydock.blogspot.com

Pigs were domesticated in China around 4900 B.C. (although some experts claim 7000 to 6000 B.C. in Western Asia) and were being raised i...






There is an interesting twist to the Florida shooting story called The Promise Program. It's worth a look. Another self-defeating Good Idea that hampers the system trying to identify risky people.

On "Paid Family Leave" being funded by Social Security: "The first problem is that this would shift the burden of providing the benefit from the private economy to government. Academic evidence shows that family leave keeps employees in their jobs and can make them happier or more productive, which is one reason many companies pay for it. But why pay when the government offers 12 weeks?" (wsj)

It seems there were armed law agents in defensive mode outside the Florida school shooting as they allowed the children inside to fight it out themselves. So to the illusion of opportunity and the myth of liberty we can add the deception of protection.





Stats are difficult when they lead to metrics. The gun discussion will show this. There are many lovely examples.  When you start grading surgeons on outcomes, they start shying away from the tougher cases.  A school district can improve its national test scores by having their poorer students stay home on the day of the tests. And this great example from McArdle:
"I once temped for a firm where some overzealous office manager had decided to crack down on office supply leakage by issuing an edict that employees could take only one pen, notebook and so forth at a time. To be issued another from the locked supply room, you had to show the one you’d used up. Did this save the company money? Well, they spent less on pens. But as you can imagine, eventually someone accidentally carried a pen out of the office and lost it. Naturally, they stole someone else’s pen. That person then began prowling neighboring desks for a replacement. By the time I arrived, normal business activity seemed to have made way for full-time careers in petty theft. Even at minimum wage, it seems unlikely that this expenditure of human resources was a net gain to the firm."



An armed high school teacher in Georgia barricaded himself alone inside his classroom and fired a gunshot when the principal tried to force open the door, but no one was seriously injured, police said after the instructor was arrested. Oh, good. They're already armed.







AAAAaaaaaaaannnnnndddddd.....a graph:



(Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute)

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