CBO on the Minimum Wage

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Stayed up late to see the first few innings from the West Coast. As usual, the triple A kid looked great.
Carol has been all over the area talking to Texas oil and gas guys.
Liz should be a researcher. She found some ancient info on my grandmother.
 
A tiny share of Americans, just 0.28% of the 156 million civilian workers earned the federal minimum last year, according to the Labor Department. Most of those employees were younger than 25 years old. That means the current level of the federal minimum wage appears to be having little economic impact. While it may help boost pay for some individuals, it is neither costing jobs nor lifting wages for most of the country. Without action by Washington, the proportion of workers affected by the federal minimum is likely to keep shrinking as long as it remains at its current level, which appears probable.(wsj) 

Something big and nuclear blew up in Russia.

According to a Michael Hammer, an eminently respected 
population geneticist at the University of Arizona, the rate of introgression of non-Jewish genes into the gene pool of Ashkenazi Jews (Jews of Central and Eastern European descent) since the formation of Ashkenazi Jewry about one thousand years ago stood at less than 0.5 percent per generation until intermarriage became rampant over the last two generations. That’s among the lowest rates of dilution of any genetic population in the world. Consequently because of those many centuries of cultural, and therefore genetic, insularity, and inbreeding, Jews, especially European-descended Jews, suffer from more than 40 diseases at higher frequencies than other populations.

From a J.P. Morgan report on "democratic socialism:" I couldn’t find any country that ticked all these democratic socialist boxes, but I did find one that came close: Argentina, which has defaulted 7 times since its independence in 1816, which has seen the largest relative standard of living decline in the world since 1900, and which is on the brink of political and economic chaos again in 2019. 

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What’s happening on campuses today isn’t a reaction to Trump or some alleged systemic injustice, at least not really. It’s a revolt of the mediocre many against the excellent few. And it is being undertaken for the sake of a radical egalitarianism in which all are included, all are equal, all are special.

. . .

Hence the new campus mores. Before an idea can be evaluated on its intrinsic merits, it must first be considered in light of its political ramifications. Before a speaker can be invited to campus for the potential interest of what he might have to say, he must first pass the test of inoffensiveness. --Bret Stephens

Destructive storm events continue to pummel the Gulf Coast, and estimates from the Census Bureau show that between 2000 and 2016, population levels along this stretch of coastline have risen by 24.5 percent, compared to 14.8 percent for the United States as a whole. Why, after such devastation, would people continue to migrate to an area that puts them at risk?

Global Debt Monitor: Global debt hit $246T in Q1 2019, nearly 320% of GDP.

Debt by sector, Q1 2019 (as % of GDP):
Households: 59.8%
Non-financial corporates: 91.4%
Gov't: 87.2%
Financial corporates: 80.8%

Chinese corporations owed the equivalent of more than 155% of GDP in March, or nearly $21 trillion, up from about 100% of GDP, or $5 trillion, two decades ago. According to Fundamental Intelligence, a bond market consultancy, Chinese firms accounted for 42% of all corporate bonds issued in emerging markets this year.

On this day in 1521, after a three-month siege, Spanish forces under Hernán Cortés capture Tenochtitlán, the capital of the Aztec empire. Cortés’ men leveled the city and captured Cuauhtemoc, the Aztec emperor.


                  CBO on the Minimum Wage

Congressional Budget Office has come out with a caustic report on the consequences of the federal $15 minimum wage policy.

The report confirms what even liberal economists caution: A $15 minimum wage would “risk undesirable and unintended consequences” and lead to a survival-of-the-fittest labor market, where only the highest-skilled workers come out on top.

A summary:

Job losses: The Congressional Budget Office report estimated that a $15 minimum wage would lead to 1.3 million lost jobs by the year 2025, with job losses rising over time due to compounding negative impacts. The exact number of job losses are highly uncertain, but the report says losses would most likely range between zero and 3.7 million, with a not-insignificant chance that losses could exceed 3.7 million.

Selective unemployment: The report makes clear that a $15 minimum wage would disproportionately harm workers with the least education and experience and those with disabilities because these workers would be the first to be let go—or to never be hired in the first place. Under a $15 minimum wage, only workers who can produce at least $35,000 of value per year would be employable.

Automation: When workers become more expensive to employ, companies have a greater incentive to invest in machinery to eventually replace employees. With a $15 minimum wage in addition to an Obamacare penalty for failing to provide workers with insurance, plus federally mandated taxes and benefits, the minimum cost of employing a full-time worker would exceed $38,000.

Inflation: In the short run, a $15 minimum wage would reduce business incomes because employers would have to adjust and figure out how to respond to higher wage costs. Inevitably, most employers affected by higher wages would raise their prices, which in turn would hurt all consumers. 

GDP: In the short run, a $15 minimum wage would reduce business incomes because employers would have to adjust and figure out how to respond to higher wage costs/ Inevitably, most employers affected by higher wages would raise their prices,which in turn would hurt all consumers. 

Deficits: A $15 minimum wage would increase the federal government’s costs for wages, goods, and services, which would lead to higher deficits—assuming lawmakers did not cut back on other spending. “...inflationary pressure created as a higher minimum wage was phased in could lead to higher interest rates, which could increase federal interest payments and have other budgetary effects.”