EV Caution, Part 2

Only families can buy farmland in North Dakota.

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Those who look to the state as director of society must abolish the diversity and contrariness of human purpose.--Lippman

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“The use of the atomic bomb, with its indiscriminate killing of women and children, revolts my soul. The only difference between this and the use of gas (which President Franklin D. Roosevelt had barred as a first-use weapon in World War II) is the fear of retaliation.”--Herbert Hoover

EV Caution, Part 2
 
Access to vital minerals is problematic:

Limited access to minerals like lithium and nickel and the volatile geopolitics that surround them also present large hurdles to EV adoption. Much of the world’s lithium is mined in politically unstable countries that aren’t friendly to the United States, and China—which has a tense relationship with us—controls the majority of the global lithium-processing capacity.

China also controls about 75 percent of the market for building EV batteries. This makes us precariously dependent on China, which creates a supply chain fraught with risk.

Moreover, an Oxford University study shows that only about a quarter of the earth’s estimated 88 million tons of lithium is economically viable for mining. And experts note that getting permits to open mines in the United States, where we only have one lithium mine, based in Nevada, can take up to a decade or longer, especially if the approval process gets embroiled in lawsuits filed by environmentalists.

“It’s irresponsible to mandate things like emission levels (which would require massive adoption of EVs to achieve) when we don’t know what the mineral supply is like; and it’s much more limited than we’d like,” Henderson points out.

One American battery supplier estimates that by 2034, the United States alone will need 500,000 metric tons of unrefined lithium just for EVs. But we currently only produce a miniscule fraction of that; about 5,000 tons a year, or less than 2 percent of total global output, according to the Institute for Energy Research (IER).

Furthermore, mining and processing these minerals aren’t exactly eco-friendly. For example, mining lithium requires vast amounts of water—about 500,000 gallons to produce just one metric ton of lithium, according to the IER.

In addition, other experts posit that as demand for minerals increases, prices will skyrocket, making EVs even more expensive, which also hampers adoption.

Insufficient infrastructure:

The availability of electricity in the United States also poses challenges, especially considering that the grid is already under stress in some regions.

“The electricity grid’s capacity is a huge problem,” Henderson says. “And at the same time, there are so many things going on at the federal and state levels aimed at preventing electric utilities from using fossil fuels to produce electricity.”

“It’s crazy,” he continues. “There’s not a lot of resilience in the grid.”

Henderson also believes that given the current limited range of EVs, the vehicles will appeal to only a limited slice of consumers that don’t have to drive very far to work and have access to battery chargers at home.

Furthermore, what about the millions of people who live in apartment complexes without parking spaces? It will be impossible for them to charge their EVs overnight if they have to park several blocks away from where they live, Henderson observes.

In fact, a lack of charging infrastructure—both publicly accessible and at homes, apartment buildings and condominium complexes alike—is especially concerning. The California Energy Commission has estimated the United States will need a ratio of seven EVs for every one charging port to handle an influx of EVs. But at the end of 2022, that ratio was just 29:1, according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation.

In fact, out of the 31,000 counties in the country, 63 percent had five or fewer non-proprietary charges installed, and 30 percent installed none, according to the trade organization, which represents major automakers. And this slow pace occurred despite the federal government creating a $5 billion initiative in 2021 aimed at dramatically expanding charging infrastructure.

Exorbitant EV prices compared to ICE vehicles and the lack of public battery-charging infrastructure also are dampening the prospects for massive EV adoption, Henderson says.

Tempering expectations:

Given all these barriers, is mass EV adoption within a few years realistic? For answers, Henderson suggests looking to California, where emission-free vehicles must account for 43 percent of new car sales by 2027.

“California is the canary in the coal mine,” Henderson says. “That’s a pretty tough goal to achieve by 2027.”

One possible way to achieve that goal is to dramatically increase the price of ICE vehicles to drive consumers to EVs, he notes.

“If that ever happens, I predict a huge consumer revolt,” he says.

(I can't remember where this is from, but its quotes include the Cato and the Hoover Institutes)