Friday, February 16, 2024

A Minority Report

Most of the world’s major nations have concluded that healthy children do not need Covid-19 vaccinations.

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Russia is developing a space-based capability to attack satellites using a nuclear weapon, an aggressive move that has alarmed U.S. national security officials and lawmakers who worry that Russia could interfere with or disable critical communications and intelligence systems, according to people familiar with classified intelligence on the matter.--WashPo

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Canada's demographics are changing. Male immigrants, especially in working/fighting/reproducing age groups, are surging. The figures highlight the country’s changing demographic trends due to its liberal immigration policy, which aims to rapidly expand the pool of workers to stave off long-term economic decline from an aging populace.

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A Minority Report

Last week Trump threatened to let NATO countries that failed to meet the two percent of GDP defense budget obligation fend for themselves against Putin. This may be one of Zito's "taking Trump seriously but not literally" moments but it is pretty harsh. But is it nutty?


NATO leaders pledged in 2014 to commit at least 2% of their gross domestic product to defense spending, in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea and instabilities in the Middle East. These are not funds that countries would pay to NATO, but contributions to their own military budgets. The alliance doesn't have its own army and its military protections are insured by member countries.

Only 11 of the 31 nations were predicted to spend more than 2% of their GDP on defense in 2023, according to NATO estimates published in July. Almost a decade ago, only three countries met that mark. The U.S. was estimated to spend 3.49% of its GDP in 2023 on defense, which is roughly $860 million. Poland comes in first with 3.9% -- more than $29 million. The only other country estimated to pass the 3% mark was Greece, with more than $7 million.

NATO's border runs along the Eastern Europe interface with Russia as well as along the very long border Russia shares in the Arctic with Canada, contributing 1.38%. The problem isn't just investment, it's competence. While many countries haven't maintained their financial obligations, some could not maintain their readiness with three times the financial requirements. Remember the reports that the German Army trained with broomsticks because they didn’t have enough machine guns?

This isn't just a matter of fairness; an unprepared nation is vulnerable regardless of its financial commitment. And vulnerability invites aggression because that's how we--and especially non-democratic nations--are. Those unprepared members of the coalition would, logically, depend upon the prepared members. I.E. us.

Look at Germany. In the last years, Germany has behaved politically like the Americans have behaved socially, which is to say, nuts. The country has given up its energy independence and it may lose a significant portion of its manufacturing base. Its earlier economic strategy was to cast its lot with Russia and China. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, a far-right organization, is the number 2 party there and growing, and the former east is politically polarized and illiberal. Most of all, the country has lost its will to defend itself despite a well-educated population and a deliberative political system that in the more distant past worked well.

If Germany is in trouble, NATO is in trouble.

Trump's excesses may astutely expose a serious American risk.



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