On this day:1199
Richard I is wounded by a crossbow bolt while fighting France, leading to his death on April 6.
1306
Robert the Bruce becomes King of Scotland.
1807
The Slave Trade Act becomes law, abolishing the slave trade in the British Empire.
1811
Percy Bysshe Shelley is expelled from the University of Oxford for publishing the pamphlet The Necessity of Atheism.
1894
Coxey’s Army, the first significant American protest march, departs Massillon, Ohio for Washington D.C.
1911
In New York City, the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire kills 146 garment workers.
1931
The Scottsboro Boys are arrested in Alabama and charged with rape.
***
Language is fossil poetry. -Ralph Waldo Emerson, writer and philosopher (1803-1882)
***
Russia (the world’s largest supplier) has announced a one-month pause in ammonium nitrate fertiliser exports
***
Since her astonishing spontaneous combustion at the European Security meeting, AOC has been in a phase of quiescence. She knows her audience.
Since her astonishing spontaneous combustion at the European Security meeting, AOC has been in a phase of quiescence. She knows her audience.
The democracy forgets. Soon a consensus of American voters will say she never went to Europe.
***
Britain has become strangely concerned about Iran after it attacked Diego Garcia.
***
Coxey’s Army, officially named the Army of the Commonwealth in Christ, was a group of unemployed people who marched to Washington, D.C., in the depression year of 1894. Led by businessman Jacob S. Coxey, the group left Massillon, Ohio, on March 25, 1894, with about 100 men, accompanied by a large contingent of reporters, and arrived in Washington on May 1 with about 500. Coxey hoped to persuade Congress to authorize a vast program of public work programs.
While ineffectual, it was the first significant popular protest march on Washington.
***
Consensus, Filth Parties, and Betting Against the Spread
***
Consensus, Filth Parties, and Betting Against the Spread
The consensus elected Trump and Lincoln, nominated Goldwater (but not Harris), and picked Barrabas over Christ. It is the essence of the point-spread.
But in science, consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.
In the 1700s, one woman in six died of puerperal fever after childbirth. In 1795, Alexander Gordon of Aberdeen suggested that the fevers were infectious processes and that he could cure them.
In 1843, Oliver Wendell Holmes claimed puerperal fever was contagious, and presented compelling evidence. The consensus said no. In 1849, Semmelweiss demonstrated that sanitary techniques virtually eliminated puerperal fever in hospitals under his management.
In the 1920s in America, tens of thousands of people, mostly poor, were dying of a disease called pellagra. The consensus of scientists said it was infectious, and what was necessary was to find the “pellagra germ.” The US government asked a brilliant young investigator, Dr. Joseph Goldberger, to find the cause. Goldberger concluded that diet was the crucial factor. The consensus remained wedded to the germ theory. Goldberger demonstrated that he could induce the disease through diet. He demonstrated that the disease was not infectious by injecting the blood of a pellagra patient into himself, and his assistant. They and other volunteers swabbed their noses with swabs from pellagra patients, and swallowed capsules containing scabs from pellagra rashes in what were called “Goldberger’s filth parties.” Nobody contracted pellagra. The consensus continued to disagree with him
South America and Africa seem to fit together rather snugly, and Alfred Wegener proposed, in 1912, that the continents had in fact drifted apart. The consensus sneered at 'continental drift' for fifty years. The theory was most vigorously denied by the great names of geology—until 1961, when it began to seem as if the sea floors were spreading. The result: it took the consensus fifty years to acknowledge what any schoolchild sees.
Consensus is invoked only in situations where the science is not solid enough. Nobody says the consensus of scientists agrees that E=mc2 . Nobody says the consensus is that the sun is 93 million miles away. It would never occur to anyone to speak that way. (from Crichton)
In the 1700s, one woman in six died of puerperal fever after childbirth. In 1795, Alexander Gordon of Aberdeen suggested that the fevers were infectious processes and that he could cure them.
In 1843, Oliver Wendell Holmes claimed puerperal fever was contagious, and presented compelling evidence. The consensus said no. In 1849, Semmelweiss demonstrated that sanitary techniques virtually eliminated puerperal fever in hospitals under his management.
In the 1920s in America, tens of thousands of people, mostly poor, were dying of a disease called pellagra. The consensus of scientists said it was infectious, and what was necessary was to find the “pellagra germ.” The US government asked a brilliant young investigator, Dr. Joseph Goldberger, to find the cause. Goldberger concluded that diet was the crucial factor. The consensus remained wedded to the germ theory. Goldberger demonstrated that he could induce the disease through diet. He demonstrated that the disease was not infectious by injecting the blood of a pellagra patient into himself, and his assistant. They and other volunteers swabbed their noses with swabs from pellagra patients, and swallowed capsules containing scabs from pellagra rashes in what were called “Goldberger’s filth parties.” Nobody contracted pellagra. The consensus continued to disagree with him
South America and Africa seem to fit together rather snugly, and Alfred Wegener proposed, in 1912, that the continents had in fact drifted apart. The consensus sneered at 'continental drift' for fifty years. The theory was most vigorously denied by the great names of geology—until 1961, when it began to seem as if the sea floors were spreading. The result: it took the consensus fifty years to acknowledge what any schoolchild sees.
Consensus is invoked only in situations where the science is not solid enough. Nobody says the consensus of scientists agrees that E=mc2 . Nobody says the consensus is that the sun is 93 million miles away. It would never occur to anyone to speak that way. (from Crichton)
Consensus has many suspected fathers. Arrogance. It breaks the tie. Who determines the consensus extends the influence of the aristocratic gatekeeper. Uncertainty is paralyzing: no one wants to invest in windmills if opinion will change in five years and invalidate the reason you built them. Consensus is clarifying and allows the public debate to move on. It allows the investment to move on.
Scientists are a group of people who believe that observation, experimentation leading to repeated observation and experimentation, will lead to reproducible results and a more accurate reflection of reality. That is to say, all scientists believe that. A consensus.
A consensus we never hear from.
No comments:
Post a Comment