The Assumption of Innocence

On this day

1183
Taira no Munemori and the Taira clan take the young Emperor Antoku and the three sacred treasures and flee to western Japan to escape pursuit by the Minamoto clan. (Traditional Japanese date: Twenty-fifth Day of the Seventh Month of the Second Year of Juei).
1842
Indian Wars: Second Seminole War ends, with the Seminoles forced from Florida to Oklahoma.
1900
The Eight-Nation Alliance occupies Beijing, in a campaign to end the bloody Boxer Rebellion in China.
1935
United States Social Security Act passes, creating a government pension system for the retired.
1945
Japan accepts the Allied terms of surrender in World War II and the Emperor records the Imperial Rescript on Surrender (August 15 in Japan standard time).

1994
Ilich Ramírez Sánchez, also known as “Carlos the Jackal,” is captured.

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The Sound of Science:
“Phylogeny should be approached as a multidimensional, multimodal, processual system subject to continuous change and interaction — in other words, a hierarchy of stabilized processes actively maintained over different timescales.”
(From, “Common Ancestry, Contemporary Phylogenetics, and Process Ontology”, reprinted, slack-jawed and amazed, in Systematic Biology, with the caveat, "You are hereby double dared to parse.. {this}.. sentence ..., in relation to the testing of phylogenetic hypotheses.")

***

Trump’s Truth Social media business is pushing a new scheme that offers wealthy buyers special early access to his posts for a fee of $100,000 a month. Trump tapped his Justice Department to forge a potentially lucrative and sketchy deal to settle a $10bn lawsuit by Trump against the IRS over a leak of his tax returns, giving him and his family immunity from IRS audits of prior tax returns and potentially saving him $100m. Unlike prior presidents, Trump has declined to put his assets in a completely blind trust or divest from his businesses.

The crypto venture World Liberty Financial, which Trump and his sons launched in the fall of 2024 with the family of Steve Witkoff, who now is Trump’s special Middle East envoy, brought in $799m in 2025 for Trump, according to public filings.

Last year, too, Trump earned another $636m from his novelty memecoin $Trump, which he began marketing just days before his inauguration in 2025.

(From a hostile, one-sided, and disturbing article in the Guardian)

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During pregnancy, cells and genetic material move in both directions across the placenta. Some maternal cells enter the fetus. Some fetal-origin material enters the mother. A small population can remain after delivery, creating a condition known as microchimerism.

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Spe·cious
adjective

1. superficially plausible, but actually wrong: "a specious argument"

 
Etymology: late 14c., "pleasing to the sight, fair," from Latin speciosus "good-looking, beautiful, fair," also "showy, pretended, plausible, specious" (source also of Old French specieux, specieuse), from species "appearance, form, figure, beauty" (see species). Meaning "seemingly desirable, reasonable or probable, but not really so; superficially fair, just, or correct" in English is recorded from 1610s.

"Specious" is superficially fair, just, or correct, appearing well at first view but easily proved unsound. "Plausible" is applied to that which pleases the ear or the superficial judgment, but will not bear severe examination

Is our species specious?

***

Pink Floyd Drummer Nick Mason collects cars. His One-of-a-Kind 1996 McLaren F1 GTR will probably sell for over $35 million this week.

***

Highlights from a ProPublica article:
Ready, Fire, Aim: In a rushed process exempted from normal rules, the Army hired General Dynamics, which brought on a Turkish subcontractor with little vetting, to make artillery shells.
Money for Nothing: Despite being paid $533 million, General Dynamics did not produce a single usable shell at its new factory — and has not been held publicly accountable.
Wages of Failure: Since the Army halted two production lines at the factory, the General Dynamics unit responsible for the debacle has received contract awards totaling $2.5 billion.

***



The Assumption of Innocence

For four years, a political party ruled this country through a demented president, hiding his mental state from the citizens. At the end of his term, they tried to reelect him until his decline crossed the Rubicon of suspension of disbelief. Only then did they offer- not nominate- an alternative candidate who, for some reason, did not think or speak well, and it showed.

We have seen the growth of astonishing amounts of money that enter political races from special interest groups. Some of these groups are foreign nations! Many of them hate us.

The CBO estimates that 6% of money designated to be spent in federal programs is stolen--stolen--before the money is deployed from Washington, D.C.

 

Then there is gerrymandering, where the politician picks the voter.

With all of this, why would we assume that elections are not tampered with?

The Freedom to Approve, Not Decide

Alysa Liu survived hard work and no drama to win Olympic figure skating gold, the first U.S. woman to do so in over two decades.

***

Pro-Trump ads are flooding the TV, sponsored by Homeland Security. The government is advertising for the government.

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Nearly one in four adults in that generation currently identify as something other than heterosexual. This is in contrast to older Americans, among whom LGBTQ+ identification remains relatively uncommon.

Pick the sci-fi plot you like best.

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Government debt is projected under the CBO’s baseline scenario to balloon from nearly $31 trillion today to $56 trillion over the next decade.

If that is true, why is it not a topic of conversation, an interview subject, or an election issue?

What are the options to deal with it?

***

The U.S. trade deficit hit a near-historic high of $901 billion last year.

***

The Freedom to Approve, Not Decide

Every so often, the popular world teaches a lesson. Science is harder than people say. Dogs that 'never bite' sometimes do. Bread usually falls jelly-side down.

The recent American display at the Munich Security Conference was such a teaching experience. The Pretty Girl Representative (PGR) showed up for no good reason and behaved like a moron. When asked, she did not know the basic geography of her continent, did not know the dramatic origin of the modern American horse, and was unable to say anything beyond "Uhh....." to a simple — and expected — political question. Watching this stirred a feeling of recognition. What was this?

It was a replay of something many teenagers experienced: a friend who showed up at an uncle's business for a token interview before getting a summer job. It was an audition where the required qualities were assumed.

For the nephew, the required qualities were being a blood relative and not drooling. For the PGR, the qualities were...not drooling. The PGR was auditioning for the international stage. She has been a successful American politician, and she was the PGR. She just needed a nod of approval, and she would move on.

Her failure is beside the point. The real question is what she was doing there in the first place? How did the PGR advance to be considered at this level? It makes you think she was picked somehow in advance, sometime earlier, that let her onto the scene. If that sounds a little too conspiratorial, remember that after she exploded on the audition stage, she rushed in tears to call her uncle NYT.

 

Autopsy

Tuberculosis replaced COVID-19 to become the top cause of infectious disease-related deaths in 2023, according to a World Health Organization report published on Tuesday, highlighting the challenges in the global effort to eradicate the disease.

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Autopsy

Harris, in her concession speech, vowed to continue to fight for the agenda that just got her clobbered.

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Mr. Biden veered left to unite Democrats, rather than unite the country, and he believed the historians (that means you, Jon Meacham) who told him he could be another FDR. He put Elizabeth Warren in charge of his regulators, and Nancy Pelosi in charge of his agenda for the first two years on Capitol Hill.
The result was a decline in real wages as inflation soared, a divisive cultural agenda driven by identity politics, chaos at the southern border, and the collapse of American deterrence abroad.--wsj

***

In October, the Obamas descended from Olympus to remind us of the meaning of “insufferable.” And to demonstrate why progressives persuade only themselves. The Obamas scolded approximately half the electorate for disappointing the Obamas, who are weary to the point of irritability by the chore of teaching their deplorable inferiors this: If you will please just vote as we Obamas consider hygienic, you will disguise your moral backwardness that requires us to stoop to instructing you.--will

***

For the past few months, the U.S. has been radically divided between those suffering Trump Derangement Syndrome and those appalled by the prospect of what I have come to think of as Kamalakaze—fear of national suicide by left-wing politics. In the current climate, calmly set out opinions have become rare. People who once merely had standard opinions have now become fully opinionated.--epstein

***

“This is a historic disaster of Biblical proportions. The Democratic Party, as it is, is dead. This is a historic realignment. There were Reagan Democrats. Now there are Trump Democrats,” said Chris Kofinis, a Democratic strategist and former chief of staff to centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.).

***

Trump's victory at the end of a campaign of unprecedented populist, misogynist and racist virulence also bodes ill for women, immigrants and democracy in general. --Le Monde

***

Pro-Choice Majority 2024, formed in January of this year, raised over $3.6 million yet spent most of its funds on a group of consultants and fundraisers. Federal Election Commission records show that the group spent zero dollars on independent expenditures opposing Trump or supporting the Harris campaign. The group did not make any transfers to the Harris campaign, either.

An Astonishing Election

 

An Astonishing Election

A virtually unknown woman who was appointed as a candidate without a primary, came very close to winning the presidency of the United States, the most important elected office in the world. This, despite espousing remarkably sophomoric ideas like taking unrealized capital gains and national rent control, notions that barely qualify as ideas. And, running as a 'change' candidate despite being an incumbent.

Trump has won despite years of lawsuits, criminal cases, and revolving impeachments. He is brash and crass but, has driven the European Left back into the shadows with the opportunity to actually improve the country by reorienting it to the basics that created it. But the basics here, this strange conglomeration of voters, will have to be explained in order for this to be continued. (All of this will be hampered by his runaway personality.)

The Press will have to reassess itself. They have been more than wrong, they have been campaigning for the wrong side. And they have accepted mendacity as normal, as an acceptable technique. That is not viable in a viable democracy.

Election Day Edition

Election Day Edition

Has the country ever faced such important decisions between such flawed candidates? Usually, election day is a relief from the craziness. This time it might be just the beginning.

Nate Silver's 537 final Siver Bullet election prediction:
At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Incendiary devices that ignited in Germany and the United Kingdom in July were part of a covert Russian operation that aimed to start fires aboard cargo and passenger flights heading to the US and Canada, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported.

A crew of four NASA astronauts was recently hospitalized without explanation after returning to Earth on SpaceX's Dragon capsule.

A warrant was taken out to capture and euthanize a family's pet squirrel in New York after a complaint from a Texas woman on the internet. The squirrel, Peanut, was kept as a pet by the Longo family for seven years and was a social media star with more than 692,000 Instagram followers. 12 armed men broke into the Longo home without warning and captured the squirrel, which was later killed.

“World War III has already begun. You already have battles on the ground being coordinated in multiple countries.”--Jamie Dimon

A Columbia, Tennessee man allegedly attempted to fly a drone packed with explosives into an energy facility before the FBI stopped him from destroying the critical infrastructure, according to the Department of Justice.

The problem with endlessly repeating that we live in a “democracy” is that ppl start to believe all political and legal legitimacy comes from 50 percent +1.--Harsanyi

Under Mr. Trump, expect me-me-me, mockery and misogyny. Under Ms. Harris, climate craziness, wokey woo-woo and pronoun patrols.--WSJ

An Idaho Republican, in a public forum, told a Native American to “go back where you came from.”

Plans by Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta to build an AI data centre in the US that runs on nuclear power were thwarted in part because a rare species of bee was discovered on land earmarked for the project, according to people familiar with the matter.

Prescience:

Allan Lichtman: Harris will beat Trump on Tuesday, said Allan Lichtman

***

Nate Silver: The latest Silver Bulletin forecast shows Trump projected to win the election, 53.8 percent to Harris' 48.8 percent. FiveThirtyEight's forecast model puts Trump as 51 percent likely to win the election, compared to Harris' 48 percent.

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Prescience

And...a special paranoia edition that bypasses predictions:

An ABC station ignited a flurry of conspiracy theories after it aired what appeared to be official election results for Pennsylvania showing Kamala Harris easily winning the key swing state — more than a week before Election Day.

The shocking result popped up at the bottom of the screen during Sunday’s broadcast of the Formula 1 Mexico Grand Prix by ABC local affiliate WNEP-TV, which serves the northern part of the Keystone State.

It showed the vice president capturing 52% of the votes, compared to 47% for Republican challenger Donald Trump, with 100% of the precincts reporting.

4

 

WNEP-TV said the results came up on the screen in “error” and that they had been “randomly generated” as part of a test ahead of the Nov. 5 election.

Teapot sans Tempest

Oklahoma State leaders estimate that roughly 3,000 illegal immigrant marijuana growers are operating in Oklahoma, with about 80 percent of them under Chinese mafia control; they’re selling $18 billion to $40 billion yearly in pot, a ProPublica investigation estimated. Chinese women get trafficked across the border to serve as prostitutes for the men working the farms. And, of course, there's the weaponry.

***

“Inclusive Excellence” is becoming the new term for the tarnished "DEI."  

***

Teapot sans Tempest

Price gouging. FEMA misinformation. Health certificates. These are parts of Harris' meandering campaign as the incumbent for change seeks a theme. This iteration is "answers to unasked questions."

This election has had more lies than any other I can remember. Lying has defined the campaign. And no one cares. You can say anything, and suggest anything, without fear of challenge. And you can repeat it even after the lies have been clearly refuted.

Innuendo is the latest. Trump is giving "unhinged" speeches. He is "exhausted." His McDonnald's appearance was "scripted," as if it could be anything else.

Most alarming is the presumed motive. This kind of campaign must be aimed only at people who have no idea what's going on.

An Election

An Election

Harris has become a contorted candidate as she runs as the candidate of change against the established incumbent government she represents.

She emerged from a convention the unanimous winner in a contest where she received no primary votes and her only opponent received millions.

In a wild effort to tag her convention with some sort of personality, she has become the candidate of "Joy." That may have a revivalist tent appeal to many but at its core is religious certainty. Conviction beyond reason. 

So Trump conspired with Vladimir Putin to steal the 2016 election, he called all Mexicans rapists, praised neo-Nazi marchers at Charlottesville, advised Americans to inject bleach to combat COVID, and promised a “bloodbath” if he loses in November.

Hallelujah.

Organized Voters

Two economists from the Harvard Growth Lab (Shah and Sturzenegger) estimate that the average transport costs for those who are employed in South Africa are equal to 57% of net wages when the time to commute is accounted for

***

US ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, has emphasized the remarkable success of Indian immigrants in the United States, noting that over 10% of Fortune 500 company CEOs as Indian immigrants who studied in the US.

***

“[W]e have close to zero studies that have tracked gender dysphoric kids who went on blockers over significant lengths of time to see how they have fared.” --Singal

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Organized Voters

Organized crime groups are turning Mexico’s elections into a literal battleground, making the campaign this year one of the deadliest in the country’s modern history. More than two dozen candidates have been killed leading up to the June 2 vote; hundreds have dropped out of the race. More than 400 have asked the federal government for security details. The campaign of intimidation and assassination is putting democracy itself at risk.

The armed groups’ goal is to install friendly leaders in local offices so they can better exploit Mexican communities. Once largely focused on shipping drugs to the United States, the cartels now also smuggle migrants, extort businesses and win contracts for firms they control. They want to name towns’ police chiefs and public works directors.

Assassins have targeted candidates from all of Mexico’s major parties. In Maravatío, a municipality of 80,000 in the central state of Michoacan, three candidates for mayor have been killed — two from Morena, López Obrador’s party, and one from the opposition National Action Party, or PAN.

Carlos Palomeque, head of the PAN in Chiapas, says nearly two dozen mayoral candidates from the party have dropped out of their races. It used to be the cartels bought off voters, he says. Now, “they force candidates from the race. It’s cheaper.”--WashPo

Squatter

Somehow, social pressure pushing identity politics over meritocracy has been building over the years, to the point that an article on the virtues of merit in science, co-authored by many eminent scientists, could only be published in the Journal of Controversial Ideas.--Staddon

***

All else being equal, for every one standard deviation increase in income inequality in a city, the number of sexy selfies goes up by 31-34%.

All else being equal?

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In the three months after Dobbs—the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade—the number of vasectomies rose 29%.

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Squatter

The San Francisco Elections Commission has, for what is believed to be the first time in history, appointed someone who is not a U.S. citizen—who is not legally allowed to vote—to serve as an official.

Is this because the pool of available candidates is so poor that the republic cannot support itself?

The officer, Kelly Wong, was sworn in on Feb. 14, local news outlet KQED reported. It said that Ms. Wong, an immigrant rights advocate, is a native of Hong Kong who arrived in the United States in 2019 for graduate studies.

She was sworn in by Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin during a ceremony at San Francisco City Hall after winning unanimous support from the board.

So a guest has arrived and has started to rearrange our furniture. It's only a matter of time before she changes the locks.

Some Election Bullets

Handwriting, compared to typing, results in more complex brain connectivity patterns, enhancing learning and memory. A study used EEG data from 36 students to compare brain activity while writing by hand and typing.
Handwriting, whether in cursive on a touchscreen or traditional pen and paper, activated extensive brain regions, vital for memory and learning. These findings highlight the importance of balancing traditional handwriting instruction with digital literacy in educational settings.

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Americans received a preview of a second Biden term on Friday when the President halted permits for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects. Climate politics has become the tail wagging this Administration’s economic, national security and foreign policy. President Biden isn’t running for re-election. Climate lobbyist Bill McKibben and his TikTok army are.
“This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time,” Mr. Biden said. “We will heed the calls of young people and frontline communities who are using their voices to demand action from those with the power to act.” Didn’t he campaign in 2020 by promising to be the adult in the room?--wsj

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Some Election Bullets

Some strange numbers are coming out of the election fury.

Former President Trump beats President Biden with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on a hypothetical 2024 ballot, according to a new poll.

With independent candidate Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein also added to the ticket alongside Kennedy, Trump’s lead over Biden climbed to 11 points, with 42 percent to the incumbent’s 31 percent.

Nearly two-thirds of voters in the poll said the country “needs another choice” this year if Biden and Trump end up as their parties’ respective nominees. And more than half — or 55 percent — said they’d consider an “independent moderate candidate” in that case.

Fox News voter analysis looked at 1,800 voters in the New Hampshire Republican Primary and found that over one-third of them said they would NEVER vote for former President Donald Trump.

All three potential Republicans, Halley, DeSantis, and Trump beat Biden in a general election--Halley doing better than DeSantis, both better than Trump--according to a recent poll.

What's astounding is all win by a narrow margin. According to Rasmussen, Biden has the general support of 45% against all opponents. That has nothing to do with Trump. How is that possible? How could whoever is running this administration get any support at all?

Trump and the Constitution

A shark was discovered on a riverbank in Idaho last week.

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Some information that stimulates a question.

Division: 

late 14c., divisioun, "act of separating into parts, portions, or shares; a part separated or distinguished from Division is from  dis- "apart" (see dis-) + -videre "to separate," which, according to de Vaan, is from PIE *(d)uid- "to separate, distinguish" (source also of Sanskrit avidhat "allotted," Old Avestan vida- "to devote oneself to"). 

I thought it would be connected to "vision." which is actually from visionem (nominative visio) "act of seeing, sight, thing seen," noun of action from past participle stem of videre "to see," from PIE root *weid- "to see." 

So, to the point:

Trump and the Constitution

It is interesting, but understandable, that the Debate is getting little coverage on CNN and MSNBC and a lot on FOX. This is emblematic of the division in thought and expression that is characteristic of today's politics. 

That division is aided by the sequestering of information. Here is an article by Kurtz, written on December 6, 2022, on what Trump said about the 2020 election which has become internalized by the Left and seemingly deflected by the Right. (I italicized the article, did cut it, but did not correct.)

Billions of words have been devoted to analyzing, criticizing, demonizing and denouncing Donald Trump. 

In newspapers, magazines and books, on television and social media, unnamed advisers provide a barometer of his moods and methods, sometimes venting their own frustration about what he’s doing or refusing to do.

And yet for all the digging about what’s happening behind the scenes, it is often Trump’s own words – on display, out in the open, in the light of day – that cause him the greatest problems.

On cable news yesterday, there were lots of banners about something that exploded over the weekend: "TRUMP CALLS FOR CONSTITUTION TO BE TERMINATED."

When I first saw similar headlines online, I assumed it must be liberal spin, something taken out of context to make that accusation.

Uh, no. That’s what he posted on Truth Social.

The impetus for Trump’s demand was the Twitter Files, which Elon Musk released, through journalist Matt Taibbi, on the outrage of the social media site suppressing the Hunter Biden laptop story at the end of the 2020 campaign. The files show Twitter executives scrambling to come up with a reason for the blockade and debating whether "hacked materials" would hold up as an excuse. (The laptop was not hacked, what the New York Post obtained was a hard drive that the Democratic nominee’s son had left with a Delaware repair shop, but that wasn’t clear at the time.)

The files also show that Twitter acted on its own, not in response to a request from the Biden campaign, which did later ask that tweets with pornographic images of Hunter Biden be removed. And while one official at the liberal company did raise the prospect that Trump could be elected, Taibbi flatly said there was no evidence of government involvement.

Still, Trump used this to advance his two-year-old crusade to show, without evidence, that the election was stolen from him.

Here’s the entire post:

"So, with the revelation of MASSIVE & WIDESPREAD FRAUD & DECEPTION in working closely with Big Tech Companies, the DNC, & the Democrat Party, do you throw the Presidential Election Results of 2020 OUT and declare the RIGHTFUL WINNER, or do you have a NEW ELECTION? A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution. Our great ‘Founders’ did not want, and would not condone, False & Fraudulent Elections!" 

 

So, how does a true Conservative square his support for Trump with this obvious disregard for the Constitution?

November 8, 2022

November 8, 2022

I am amazed that this economy did not dramatically overturn the government. If the disasters of the last two years did not mobilize a rejection, what will? Is it that, despite the problems and anxieties, the Republicans are not seen as a solution?

This election could be seen as typical of midterm elections--not any type of rejection--and could encourage Biden to run again.

The abortion issue on post-vote surveys was surprisingly strong, often ranking second behind the economy. If I were the Democrats I would put an abortion state amendment on every ballot on every election cycle for the rest of time.

Fetterman's winning is astonishing, both physiologically and philosophically. His provincial ad campaign may have had nativist overtones that were overlooked and effective.

The Democrats' funding of poor Republican candidates in their primaries worked. Mastriano in Pa. hurt Oz. And I overestimated Kerri Lake. It's dishonorable and creepy, but legal.

Military Rebuilding will probably be muted.

This seems to mean the border policy, declining military spending, and the suicidal energy policy will not only continue, but are actually approved of by the electorate. I would have expected the energy policy alone would have cost the Democrats the majority.

Can O'Rourk and Stacy Abrams stop now and go away?

Chris Delusio and Summer Lee were elected to the House in Western Pa. to probably join The Squad.

Desantis looks like a serious national candidate. I thought Va.'s Youngkin was surprisingly absent.

Trump is going to be a problem if he continues to try to be the face of the Republican party. And if he is not accepted and splits the Party--at least in 2024--it will be worse.

Election Day

Interesting energy update. The annual global warming conference is underway, The U.N. Climate Change Conference, COP 27. It's being held in Egypt. Among those not attending are China, Russia, and India.

***

Election Day

This election will review the last two years and judge it. That will not be enough.

I just heard a conservative commentator say there will be a big vote against 'Biden's failed energy policy.' If that is true, the nation is in serious trouble. Biden's energy policy was to create precisely what we have; these people want to destroy cheap energy in favor of another source we have not yet developed. Their next step will probably be to burn our farms.

The policy of the Left is much like the policy of an invading enemy army. Opposition to this approach must be based on more than the price of gas. The policies of the Left are fundamentally opposed to the basic marrow of the nation. An electorate that underestimates that will always be taking one step forward and two steps back. Eventually we will be back to some pre-petroleum economy. And a pre-enlightenment government.

Surprising Numbers

 

                               Surprising Numbers

Here's a surprising demographic--the strongest--from the NYT:

Report Card

 “If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it costs when it’s free.” O'Rourke


Went to the Osher welcome last night. Back at school. Funny. The students are the same.

Republicans lost in Ky and Va. Lot of angles but one is that Trump is wearing on people. 
Another is the national relentless lying in D.C. and in the Press. It may be working. When did anyone in America think that secret hearings would be ok?



Our wants and desires keep growing, evidently without end, and therefore so do our economies. But our use of the earth’s resources does not. With the help of innovation and new technologies, economic growth in America and other rich countries — growth in all of the wants and needs that we spend money on — has become decoupled from resource consumption. This is a recent development and a profound one.--McAffee


Another affront to social justice: A person whose looks are one standard deviation above average attains 0.4 years more schooling than an otherwise identical average-looking individual. Enter the Bureau of Scarring.

Ideology has become all-encompassing. We are interested only in concepts. Practical economic problems, like how to structure the electric utilities in California to maximum efficiency, are never discussed. Maybe there's not enough outrage potential in them.

Paul Krugman has written, “All that matters for the gains from trade are the prices at which you trade — it makes absolutely no difference what forces lie behind those prices.” Is that true?

Roberts on Talleyrand: 'Talleyrand flees the Reign of Terror, goes to England and then to America, returns to France in 1796 and manages to become foreign minister within a year.

And stays foreign minister or in the diplomatic sphere in some way or another for the rest of his life. He thereby met almost all the important people in Europe and was at the table when all the great decisions were made. He was born an aristocrat and was later an unfrocked bishop. He had a lame foot rather like Byron and Goebbels which apparently turns you into a sex maniac; he turned his niece into his mistress which I think today would have him defenestrated but, nonetheless, no one seemed to hold that against him either.'

“There is no greater threat to humankind,” Liz Plank announces on the first page of her book For the Love of Men, “Than our current definitions of masculinity.” A bold claim. “Toxic masculinity,” Plank claims, underpins vast amounts of suffering across the globe.

U.S. charges that Saudi Arabia used Twitter Inc. employees to spy on social-media users are the latest allegations that authorities in the kingdom have used the platform’s popularity to crack down on critics. (wsj)

From Brian:



                               Report Card

This week, the Department of Education released the 2019 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) assessment results, often called the Nation’s Report Card. For a nation obsessed with education, willing to pay almost anything for it and committed to the teachers and the union that control it, it should be a startling, worrisome document. It won't be.

Some points:
Scores were up a fraction in 4th-grade math but dropped in 4th-grade reading, 8th-grade reading, and 8th-grade math. Indeed, the drop in 8th-grade reading was very big — more than 3 scale points. It was the largest change in scores ever seen for that test.
While there were some test score gains (particularly in math) between 2000 and 2010, NAEP performance has stagnated since that time, with the 2015 results showing the first widespread declines in NAEP. The bulk of the declines are coming from the lowest-scoring students. In 4th-grade reading and in 8th-grade reading and math, declines are larger for lower-performing students.

Mid-Term Exit Polls

Wisdom from exit polls:

A majority of voters (56%) were over the age of 50.

Fifty-four percent of white voters chose Republican this year, while 90% of blacks, 69% of Hispanics, 77% of Asians and 54% of other races voted Democrat.

53% of white women voted Republican in 2016, the party lost ground in 2018. An equal number of white women gave their votes to Democrats (49%) as to Republicans (49%).

Of those ages 50 and above, only half gave their votes this year to a Republican candidate. Among the younger set, by contrast, lopsided percentages voted for Democrats. The 18- to 24-year-olds gave 68% of their support to Democrats. Among 25- to 29-year-olds, 66% voted Democrat. It was 59% among voters in their 30s and 52% among those in their 40s.

Fifty-two percent of married voters chose Trump in 2016. Fifty-six percent had been Romney voters in 2012. But in 2018, the percentage of married people who voted Republican dropped to 47%.

Of the white, male, non-college graduates, seventy-one percent voted Republican in 2016. In 2018, there was a little slippage. Only 66% voted Republican this time. Results were similar for non-college women.

Fifty-three percent of voters said Trump's immigration policies are either "about right" (33%) or "not tough enough" (17%).

 A solid 56% of voters oppose the suggestion that Congress should impeach President Trump. While 54% of voters have an unfavorable view of the president, that is nothing like the 90% disapproval among Democrats. Opinions of the Democratic Party aren't so hot, either. Only 48% have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party (versus 44% for the Republican Party), and only 31% have a positive view of Nancy Pelosi.