Anyone with the temerity to have confidence in any evaluations or assessments need look no further than the Steeler-Bronco game for disillusion. Did anyone think the over/under was more than 12? Or that Tebow would average 30 yards completion?
Remember this when thinking of betting. Or investing.
Monday, January 9, 2012
Friday, January 6, 2012
A Modest Wedding Proposal
The culture is struggling. Out with the old, in with the whatever. The postmodern respect for anything of any quality--as close as the covetous arts and social sciences can get to Heisenberg--have left us with a poor line of judgement. It has been suggested that one of the outcomes might be a resurgence of accumulation and financial success.
Funerals are the same but weddings are not. Expense, themes, productions may all validate the idea that the end of postmodernism leaves us nothing but the market. So weddings have become a flag planted in a bride's territory, the fulfillment--or destruction--of the plans of in-laws. Power struggles within and between families is the norm as each wants his plans realized. Weddings have themes; the wedding is not enough.
A modest proposal: Every young woman, lovely or not, heterosexual or not, nubile or not gets her own day, her own party at the age of twenty-five. Like a bat mitzvah, the young woman gets a day of social importance devoted only to her--no groom but male guests if she wants--the way she would plan a special day only for her. She can plan a day with a Wizard of Oz theme, Alice in Wonderland, a breakfast, a brunch, a nighttime party. A day where she is the cynosure, where her happiness and that of her family, is not just paramount, it is the only thing.
The impact would be terrific. No in-laws to please, no groom hanging around glumly, no compromises. She and her family could plan her great day from childhood. They could save for it, she could collect china outside of community property rules, she likely would delay marriage (with all the social benefits that brings) until she had her event because the event would now be primary.
Funerals are the same but weddings are not. Expense, themes, productions may all validate the idea that the end of postmodernism leaves us nothing but the market. So weddings have become a flag planted in a bride's territory, the fulfillment--or destruction--of the plans of in-laws. Power struggles within and between families is the norm as each wants his plans realized. Weddings have themes; the wedding is not enough.
A modest proposal: Every young woman, lovely or not, heterosexual or not, nubile or not gets her own day, her own party at the age of twenty-five. Like a bat mitzvah, the young woman gets a day of social importance devoted only to her--no groom but male guests if she wants--the way she would plan a special day only for her. She can plan a day with a Wizard of Oz theme, Alice in Wonderland, a breakfast, a brunch, a nighttime party. A day where she is the cynosure, where her happiness and that of her family, is not just paramount, it is the only thing.
The impact would be terrific. No in-laws to please, no groom hanging around glumly, no compromises. She and her family could plan her great day from childhood. They could save for it, she could collect china outside of community property rules, she likely would delay marriage (with all the social benefits that brings) until she had her event because the event would now be primary.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
My Little Debt to the Government
There has been a lot of talk about the value of education, how it is the path to the middle class and how American citizens are suffering over the cost. Obama has commented on this repeatedly. Some numbers:
Jeremy Siegle's book, "Stocks for the Long Run" compiled a lot of data from the last 200 years (the last decade excepted.) Since 1802 the annual return corrected for inflation has been: stocks 6.5-7.0%, bonds 2.8%. Generally Siegle felt that any 10 year period would show growth in value of the stock market. (Remember this for tomorrow.)
Current U.S. bond returns are: 3 month 0.01%, 6 month 0.05%, 12 month 0.01%, 2 year 0.26%, 3 year 0.39% 5 year 0.87%, 7 year 1.42 %, 10 year 1.97%, 30 year 3.01%.
85% of medical students graduate with debt averaging 160.0 thousand dollars, lawyers 106.3 thousand, teachers 18 thousand. Annually in the United States 100 billion dollars in public loans, 10 billion in private are taken for education. 65.6% of the graduates of 4 year scholastic college programs graduate with an average of 23.1 thousand in debt. The next burden, of course, is the interest rate they pay.
My school loan from the U.S. Department of Education, set by the national government, is 6.8%. 6.8%! That is equivalent to the 3 month bond of Malawi, a landlocked African nation with no natural resources, whose major product is tobacco and whose per capita income is 800 dollars a year.
So in this environment, with historically low interest rates, an emphasis on education and national concern over the cost and financing of education my government is charging me 6.8% on my education loans. This is completely under their control. This, in spite of what they say. Now how are we to reconcile that disparity?
Jeremy Siegle's book, "Stocks for the Long Run" compiled a lot of data from the last 200 years (the last decade excepted.) Since 1802 the annual return corrected for inflation has been: stocks 6.5-7.0%, bonds 2.8%. Generally Siegle felt that any 10 year period would show growth in value of the stock market. (Remember this for tomorrow.)
Current U.S. bond returns are: 3 month 0.01%, 6 month 0.05%, 12 month 0.01%, 2 year 0.26%, 3 year 0.39% 5 year 0.87%, 7 year 1.42 %, 10 year 1.97%, 30 year 3.01%.
85% of medical students graduate with debt averaging 160.0 thousand dollars, lawyers 106.3 thousand, teachers 18 thousand. Annually in the United States 100 billion dollars in public loans, 10 billion in private are taken for education. 65.6% of the graduates of 4 year scholastic college programs graduate with an average of 23.1 thousand in debt. The next burden, of course, is the interest rate they pay.
My school loan from the U.S. Department of Education, set by the national government, is 6.8%. 6.8%! That is equivalent to the 3 month bond of Malawi, a landlocked African nation with no natural resources, whose major product is tobacco and whose per capita income is 800 dollars a year.
So in this environment, with historically low interest rates, an emphasis on education and national concern over the cost and financing of education my government is charging me 6.8% on my education loans. This is completely under their control. This, in spite of what they say. Now how are we to reconcile that disparity?
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
The Queen and a Korean Observation
There is a new book out about Queen Elizabeth and it has inspired the usual anti-monarchy response. The English Royal Family is an easy outrage that never seems to extend to the real despots of the world. More recently a financial motive has crept into the argument: Can Great Britain afford them? Diana suppressed most of the complaints but, now that she is gone and the unattractive Charles has moved to the fore, the murmuring has returned.
Years ago I was in a difficult conversation with two Koreans. I speak no Korean, they spoke no English but they had a dictionary. We were struggling over the meaning of the royal family, how they were seen by the British as symbolic of the nation and we bounced synonyms off each other while one searched his dictionary. Suddenly he straightened and pointed a word out to me in his dictionary. He pronounced it slowly.
"Mascot?" he asked. "Mascot?"
"Perfect," I replied.
Years ago I was in a difficult conversation with two Koreans. I speak no Korean, they spoke no English but they had a dictionary. We were struggling over the meaning of the royal family, how they were seen by the British as symbolic of the nation and we bounced synonyms off each other while one searched his dictionary. Suddenly he straightened and pointed a word out to me in his dictionary. He pronounced it slowly.
"Mascot?" he asked. "Mascot?"
"Perfect," I replied.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
An Empty Bowl
New Years has always been difficult for me. There is a tension between what I see for me and what the world seems to offer so the "Sacred Arbitrary Moment", the official start of the new year, is a time of conflict. And, as I straddle the "Sacred Arbitrary Moment", I usually feel a bit more in the past than the future. I never know the entertainers on the television celebration of the "Sacred Arbitrary Moment", I never know the loud, enthusiastic and grinning hosts and hostesses. I am, once a year, officially declared behind the times.
I do, however, love the football of the holiday. This year, though, my defects were only magnified by the sports events. Hoping to sit down in front of a good game or two with the company of a child or two and comforted by a Pepsi and a bowl of potato chips I found myself watching the introduction of the Hunger Bowl. The Hunger Bowl. I'm on the couch, eating chips and hot dogs with sauerkraut and I have to watch a bowl game raising hunger awareness. Now I would have thought that have a game devoted to hunger on a day of nationally agreed self indulgence would be a bad idea.
Only further evidence of my being out of touch.
I do, however, love the football of the holiday. This year, though, my defects were only magnified by the sports events. Hoping to sit down in front of a good game or two with the company of a child or two and comforted by a Pepsi and a bowl of potato chips I found myself watching the introduction of the Hunger Bowl. The Hunger Bowl. I'm on the couch, eating chips and hot dogs with sauerkraut and I have to watch a bowl game raising hunger awareness. Now I would have thought that have a game devoted to hunger on a day of nationally agreed self indulgence would be a bad idea.
Only further evidence of my being out of touch.
Monday, January 2, 2012
"Present"-dent
There is a story about the Artist Formerly Known As Prince. Apparently someone interested in writing an article about him went back to his school days in search of some youth pictures and found nothing. He had no graduation picture, he was absent from the club and athletic pictures--the guy had no picture record of his high school experience. When asked about this he said it was planned by him to have no record of his early life. Young guys always can be made to look silly with old styles, interests, old mistakes. He said he purposely avoided anything that in his history might detract from his music and art he knew was coming. Astonishing vision and confidence.
A track record can be bad for politicians too. Gingrich is so arrogant he is willing to say anything, anytime with the confidence he can explain it later. Obama has been specifically attacked for being noncommittal in voting "present" on important votes in an effort not to offend anyone. This issue was raised by Hilliary in the primary in 2008. It is an unfair charge. Obama voted "present" 127 times as a state senator, but that was three percent of his votes. He was absent 80% of votes running for president but McCain was absent over 70%; when you're running for president, you are little else.
But it is a strange world in which you must hide from your opinions.
A track record can be bad for politicians too. Gingrich is so arrogant he is willing to say anything, anytime with the confidence he can explain it later. Obama has been specifically attacked for being noncommittal in voting "present" on important votes in an effort not to offend anyone. This issue was raised by Hilliary in the primary in 2008. It is an unfair charge. Obama voted "present" 127 times as a state senator, but that was three percent of his votes. He was absent 80% of votes running for president but McCain was absent over 70%; when you're running for president, you are little else.
But it is a strange world in which you must hide from your opinions.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Sunday Sermon 1/1/12
Today Paul to the Galatians says that Christ on earth means that all men are adopted sons of God, heirs to His infinite creation.
So every man, regardless of station or circumstance, wealth or heritage, birthright or appearance, sickness or health is equal in the eyes of God. There have been a lot of notions--from nihilism to castes, from divine right to class conflict, from Freud to Malthus--that have come down the pike since the beginning of recorded time but has there ever been a more radical, more hopeful, more optimistic idea than that? And could there be a better thought to start the new year?
So every man, regardless of station or circumstance, wealth or heritage, birthright or appearance, sickness or health is equal in the eyes of God. There have been a lot of notions--from nihilism to castes, from divine right to class conflict, from Freud to Malthus--that have come down the pike since the beginning of recorded time but has there ever been a more radical, more hopeful, more optimistic idea than that? And could there be a better thought to start the new year?
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