Friday, January 29, 2010

Power, Brain Power and Muscle Power

"In 1800, 75% of [an American's] working man's expenditures went for food alone. By 1850, that had dropped to 50%. Today it is a little more than 11%." -- The Wall Street Journal, September 20, 1996

Right now labor costs determine markets. But what if labor cost became minor compared to transportation costs? The ubiquitous sci-fi dystopia? The Road Warrior? Just The Road?
There is an interesting thesis--long and unfulfilled--questioning the supply of cheap oil. Not oil, cheap oil. The success of the West over the last century has hinged on cheap power; oil has been crucial in our industrialization. Now circumstances are changing. Our suppliers--like Mexico--are beginning to use more and more of their own production as they industrialize. American production peaked in 1970. Oil producers do not allow audits of their reserves. New discoveries like the Canadian tar sands, the find off Brazil and the shale deposits in the west and in Pa. will be very expensive to reach and deliver. Oil will not go away but it will get increasingly more expensive. This adds a fascinating component to commercial life: The cost of production and delivery. China, for example, pays its workers almost nothing and uses a lot of cheap coal power so the overhead is low and competes well in foreign markets--unless fuel cost go up. China is big and far away so if the cost of fuel for transportation were to rise across the world, their economic advantage of criminally low labor costs would erode. Industries would be forced to move near their markets; American industries would grow at home. Jobs would increase. Communities would flower. Mel Gibson as food co-op manager?
Not so dystopic.
The world may be flat and information and communication world-wide but the markets may become local.

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