Monday, March 11, 2013

Lomborg and Crisis

There has been a general assumption that global warming has resulted in the "devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms" observed by the casual observer and the press.
Bjørn Lomborg is a well known environmentalist and Adjunct Professor and Director of Copenhagen Consensus Center at the Copenhagen Business School. He has had a reassessment in his approach to environmental changes and now emphasizes priorities in world problems. Where, he asks, is the best target for intervention? His main focus is poverty's influence on health. He recently published an article that disputes the above notion of increasing natural disasters that includes the following observations:
1. Analysis of wildfires around the world shows that since 1950 their numbers have decreased globally by 15%.
2. A study published in Nature in November shows globally that "there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years."
3. Measured by total energy (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), hurricane activity is at a low not encountered since the 1970s. The U.S. is currently experiencing the longest absence of severe landfall hurricanes in over a century—the last Category 3 or stronger storm was Wilma, more than seven years ago.
4. A March 2012 Nature study shows that the global damage cost from hurricanes will go to 0.02% of gross domestic product annually in 2100 from 0.04% today—a drop of 50%, despite global warming.

These are not arguments against global warming but they are arguments against the hysteria that seems to be necessary to preface any discussion.

No comments: