Wednesday, May 22, 2019

The Pirates and Their Numbers

I know of no other country where love of money has such a grip on men's hearts or where stronger scorn is expressed for the theory of permanent equality of property.--deTocqueville

Surrogate motherhood is the ultimate in appropriation and the ultimate dysphoria. A mother who is not, a son or daughter who is not, it's a creepy sci-fi come true. Motherhood with the distance of fatherhood.

There is a paper claiming that excess regulations in the nation cost 2 trillion dollars a year.

If this next election  turns into a fight over abortion, I am turning in my voter's card.

One of the problems with this "adversity score" in schools is that it seems to violate some generally understood rules. Diversity implies disparity at some level. Diversity is not an endpoint of nature, it is a tool of nature. It is an engine of change and advancement. Legislating against it is like legislating against gravity.

On this day in 1455, in the opening battle of England’s War of the Roses, the Yorkists defeat King Henry VI’s Lancastrian forces at St. Albans, 20 miles northwest of London. 

                     The Pirates and Their Numbers

Baseball has become obsessed with numbers. Numbers make the man...and the team. No team is more devoted to this new approach than the Pirates. But their numbers don't work.

The Pirates have scored 169 runs and allowed 208. That's a negative-39 run differential; the statistics would predict a 18-26 record with a differential like that. Generally speaking, when teams are out-performing their run differential to such a ridiculous degree, they have excelled in one-run games. Yet the Pirates are 6-7 in one run games. 

They've had a road-heavy schedule, too, with 18 home games and 26 road games so far. Again the numbers make no sense; they play worse at home--but better than the numbers would predict. The Pirates are 9-9 at home with a negative-25 run differential. On the road, they are 15-11 with a negative-14 run differential. 

The National League has 15 teams. There are only four with a better record than the Pirates. Yet, here's where the Pirates rank in some key categories: 
  • Runs: 14th
  • HR: 14th
  • Average: 8th
  • On-base percentage: 11th
  • Slugging percentage: 13th
  • ERA: 8th
  • Run differential: 13th
  • (imagine where they would be without Bell)
The only teams with a better record are the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies and Brewers. The only teams with a worse run differential are the Giants and Marlins

This month, the Pirates have gone 11-6. Among NL teams, only the Cubs (12-6), Dodgers (11-5) and Phillies (12-6) have been better and that's only by a half-game. Yet during that great run, the Pirates have been outscored by 20 runs. Only the Nationals and Marlins have a worse run differential among NL teams in the month. 

Absolutely nothing makes sense with the numbers on this team. Maybe they are assuming the personality of Marte or Polanco, talented but foolish with flashes of random talent. Or maybe, once again, man has excelled his measurements.

Me? I'm betting on the numbers.

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