Monday, August 19, 2019

Happy Vasili Arkhipov‏ Day

I am going to teach the South American republics to elect good men!--Woodrow Wilson  

Mineos last night. Chris ate an astonishing amount.
Analysis from financial consultants Gordon Haskett Research Advisors shows cost increases already have taken hold in a typical shopping basket of 76 regular items from Target and Walmart. Target’s shopping basket cost roughly 5% more in June than it did in October 2018, Gordon Haskett said.
Racism is not dead, but it is on life support — kept alive by politicians, race hustlers and people who get a sense of superiority by denouncing others as “racists.”--Sowell

Oil production in the Permian Basin topped 1 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time in May 2011, 2 million bpd in July 2016 (a little more than 5 years later), 3 million bpd in February 2018 (less than 2 years later) and 4 million bpd in April 2019 (a little more than a year later).

Eagle Ford’s oil output surpassed 1 million bpd for the first time in May 2013 and the Bakken followed six months later in November 2013 with more than 1 million bpd.
Combined oil output in the Big Three exceeded 2 million bpd in November 2011, 3 million bpd in April 2013, 4 million bpd in May 2014, 5 million in October 2017, 6 million in July 2018 and 7 million this month (more than 58% of total US oil production). That’s about a 7X increase from the combined daily production in the “Big Three” of about 1 million barrels in early 2007.
Exports are a cost to each exporter in the same manner that going to work each day is a cost to each worker. Worthwhile, yes. But it’s done only because the receipt of greater value is expected in return.--Bordeaux

Did you know there’s a Pythagoras Day? It doesn’t occur every year. Last one was on 8/15/17 (8² + 15² = 17²). Next will occur on 12/16/20 (12² + 16² = 20²). Start planning the celebrations now!

Last year, a study came out showing that beef jerky and other cured meats, could trigger mania in bipolar disorder. Psychiatrists at a mental hospital in Baltimore asked new patients if they had ever eaten any of a variety of foods. After getting a few hundred responses, they compared answers to controls and across diagnostic categories. The only hit that came up was that people in the hospital for bipolar mania were more likely to have said they ate dry cured meat like beef jerky. They only asked if they’d ever had the food, not if they’d eaten a lot of it just before becoming sick. If you had beef jerky once when you were fourteen, and ended up in the psych hospital when you were fifty-five, that counted.
How would you like to make medical or social decisions on a study like that? More, what would you think of a journal that accepted that article? Now, how about a culture?
This is just astonishing. This arrow by mathematician and sculptor Kokichi Sugihara can't point left. Here's how it works: It's 3D-printed with a bunch of curves our brains don't register:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=42&v=1d57O10w8bM 




                             Happy Vasili Arkhipov‏ Day

Today, August 19, is the anniversary of the death of Vasili Arkhipov, a beacon of integrity and intelligence in the fog of nationalism and bravado. His death is important because it was caused by technical overreach instigated by that nationalism and bravado and we should be reminded of that. But his life, particularly his human heroism during the blundering Cuban Missile Crisis, is a tribute to the better elements of mankind.

At the height of the Cold War with America, the Russians began to fear the gap developing between the two powers' submarine fleets. The Russians eventually rushed the development and construction of the K-19, the first of two new Hotel-class ballistic missile submarines. As with much of the Russian development and manufacturing, there was a lot wrong with the K-19. In the movie, "K-19," Harrison Ford played the part of a real Russian sub commander in 1961 who managed a real on-board accident in a K-19 cooling system that threatened a meltdown. As in Chernobyl, individuals accepted their radiation deaths as they went into the reactor on the K-19 and Jerry-rigged an alternative cooling system. Many died, the commander played by Ford years later died of complication of radiation exposure.

His name was Vasili Arkhipov. There should be a world holiday for him.

The following year, in July of 1962, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev agreed to Cuba’s request to place nuclear missiles in Cuba as a deterrent to future US interference after the Bay of Pigs invasion debacle a few years earlier. In mid-October, a U.S. reconnaissance airplane produced evidence of medium and long range Soviet ballistic missiles in Cuba. President John F. Kennedy promptly established a military blockade to prevent further missiles from entering Cuba and demanded that the missiles be dismantled and returned to the Soviet Union.

The two great powers faced off. It is important to know that Kennedy was being advised to launch a first strike against the Russians with the logic that the Russian retaliatory ability was limited and would cause 30 million civilian deaths at the most. The military thought that a bargain. At the same time Castro was campaigning Khrushchev for a first strike against the U.S., knowing full well Cuba as an entity would not exist afterwards. (See The Armageddon Letter.) These people were the world leaders whose decisions were going to determine the future of the world. And those who were democratically elected did not seem to be getting any less crazy advice.

The K-19 hero Vasili Arkhipov was second-in-command in the nuclear-armed Foxtrot-class submarine B-59, part of a flotilla of four submarines protecting Soviet ships on their way to Cuba. On October 27, as they approached the US imposed quarantine line, US Navy ships in pursuit started dropping depth charges to force the B-59 to surface for identification – completely unaware that it was carrying nuclear weapons.
The explosions rocked the submarine which went dark except for emergency lights. With the air-conditioning down, temperature and carbon dioxide levels rose sharply. The crew was hardly able to breathe.
Unable to contact Moscow and under pressure from the Americans for several hours, Captain Valentin Savitsky finally began to crack. He assumed that war had broken out between the two countries and decided to launch a nuclear torpedo. He would not go down without a fight.
However, unlike the other submarines in the flotilla, the three officers on-board the B-59 had to agree unanimously to launch the nuclear torpedo. As the other officer sided with Savitsky, only Arkhipov stood in the way of launching World War III.
An argument broke out among the three, but Arkhipov was able to convince the Captain not to launch the torpedo. How was he able to prevail under such stressful conditions? He was actually in charge of the entire flotilla and as such was equal in rank to Savitsky. But the reputation he had gained during the K-19 incident may have been the decisive factor in convincing the other officers to abort the launch. That detail may have made all the difference.

The submarine eventually surfaced and awaited orders from Moscow, averting what would have been a nuclear holocaust. The Cuban Missile Crisis ended a few days later.
This crucial episode of the Cold War only became known to the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union many years later.

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