There has long been the belief that plane travel raised upper respiratory tract infection rates because of recirculation of air, with the collective illnesses of those on board, in the closed compartment of the plane cabin.This belief is commonly held in spite of all scientific evidence to the contrary.
Agustin Fuentes, in his book "Race, Monogamy and other Lies They Told You" writes:
"It is simply not true that air
on planes is predominantly recirculated or germ-laden. Modern airplanes
mix some compressed air with air drawn in from outside and the mix is
about 50 percent at any given time. The air is refreshed throughout the
flight with very effective filters and there is a total changeover in
cabin air (that is total cabin air moving through the filters) every
three minutes or so. So the danger from planes and disease (unless one
is seated directly next to someone who is highly contagious) is pretty
minimal relative to what one risks in most large office buildings."
Despite this, and the information will known by all that colds are caused by viruses and few medications are effective and none known as good prophylaxis, an over-the -counter "therapy," called "Airborne," is taken regularly by people to prevent illnesses that air travel presumably predisposes.
In 2008 Airborne was sued by the FTC for false advertising and paid over $30 million in fines but that year was still generating over $300 million in sales.
It could be worse. Animal sacrifice, for example.
Friday, August 31, 2012
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Baseball Errors
Josh
Harrison, a marginal utility player for the Pittsburgh Pirates who must
make up for lack of talent with focus and commitment, rounded third
from second on a short single to right by Jose Tabata and steamed down
the third base line towards Yadier Molina, the fine catcher for St.
Louis, and hit him full stride, shoulder to head, as Morales received
the relay throw. Morales held the ball and Harrison was called out but
Molina, while he continued to play, was hurt. Several innings later at
his next at bat, Harrison was hit by a pitch. The umpire jumped forward and warned
both benches.
This embodies several very bad aspects of modern baseball. First, collisions are for football and hockey. Blocking home plate, the high-spike slide at second, the thunderous Pete Rose hit on the catcher at the plate are the stuff of thugs. Period. International soccer penalizes for "dangerous play." Baseball should too. Throw a flag, then throw the guy out. No blocking home plate, no forcing contact at second, no spikes. It's a beautiful game; if someone makes it dangerous or less beautiful, throw him out.
Second, there are some symbolic traditions in baseball. Throwing at a batter after he has violated baseball etiquette is one of them. This would all be avoided if the batter was not given the option of hurting someone--indeed now in the game encouraged to--but it has become part of its lore. There was no effort to hurt Harrison with the pitch, just to establish that the pitcher was angry. If that is objectionable, do not warn him; throw him out.
This embodies several very bad aspects of modern baseball. First, collisions are for football and hockey. Blocking home plate, the high-spike slide at second, the thunderous Pete Rose hit on the catcher at the plate are the stuff of thugs. Period. International soccer penalizes for "dangerous play." Baseball should too. Throw a flag, then throw the guy out. No blocking home plate, no forcing contact at second, no spikes. It's a beautiful game; if someone makes it dangerous or less beautiful, throw him out.
Second, there are some symbolic traditions in baseball. Throwing at a batter after he has violated baseball etiquette is one of them. This would all be avoided if the batter was not given the option of hurting someone--indeed now in the game encouraged to--but it has become part of its lore. There was no effort to hurt Harrison with the pitch, just to establish that the pitcher was angry. If that is objectionable, do not warn him; throw him out.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Second Earth, A Review
“If you met yourself, what would you say?”
“Better luck next time.”
--Another Earth
The science of science fiction is rarely forgiving but its audience usually is. The indie film, "Another Earth," is a real challenge for indie fans, sci-fi fans and film buffs as it subdivides the film by a number of genres without committing to any--just enough to disappoint all of its potential audience subsets.
The story is that of a young woman with great potential who is involved in an careless accident that kills a woman and her child and seriously injures the husband. She goes to jail, eventually is released and tries to atone for her mistake by forming a relationship with the man whose family she killed. In the background is the appearance in the sky of a new planet that, as the story progresses, seems to be a parallel earth with people living lives parallel to their earth counterparts.
The science is vague, perhaps an accidental encounter with an alternative universe, but the focus upon the girl and not the society keeps the sci-fi element obvious but muted, like a stage whisper. The drama is quite good as the girl struggles with her guilt and searches for forgiveness. The development of her relationship with the injured widower is very well done, endearing yet disturbing. And the Second Earth hovers with its promise of new insights and a new life.
This is the first film of Mike Cahill. He co-wrote the film with its lead, Brit Marling, an attractive girl but no Hollywood beauty with the unlikely background of working for Goldman Sachs. It is a good effort, well acted and well filmed on a $200,000 budget. There are significant problems with the Second Earth metaphor (if one dwells on it) and there is some self-indulgent nonsense like Ms. Marling's inexplicable American Indian co-worker. But the real difficulty is the significant questions raised by the story are not answered; the Second Earth is no rescue and that may be unsatisfying to those seeking a close encounter.
“Better luck next time.”
--Another Earth
The science of science fiction is rarely forgiving but its audience usually is. The indie film, "Another Earth," is a real challenge for indie fans, sci-fi fans and film buffs as it subdivides the film by a number of genres without committing to any--just enough to disappoint all of its potential audience subsets.
The story is that of a young woman with great potential who is involved in an careless accident that kills a woman and her child and seriously injures the husband. She goes to jail, eventually is released and tries to atone for her mistake by forming a relationship with the man whose family she killed. In the background is the appearance in the sky of a new planet that, as the story progresses, seems to be a parallel earth with people living lives parallel to their earth counterparts.
The science is vague, perhaps an accidental encounter with an alternative universe, but the focus upon the girl and not the society keeps the sci-fi element obvious but muted, like a stage whisper. The drama is quite good as the girl struggles with her guilt and searches for forgiveness. The development of her relationship with the injured widower is very well done, endearing yet disturbing. And the Second Earth hovers with its promise of new insights and a new life.
This is the first film of Mike Cahill. He co-wrote the film with its lead, Brit Marling, an attractive girl but no Hollywood beauty with the unlikely background of working for Goldman Sachs. It is a good effort, well acted and well filmed on a $200,000 budget. There are significant problems with the Second Earth metaphor (if one dwells on it) and there is some self-indulgent nonsense like Ms. Marling's inexplicable American Indian co-worker. But the real difficulty is the significant questions raised by the story are not answered; the Second Earth is no rescue and that may be unsatisfying to those seeking a close encounter.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Armstrong, Mars and America
There is a hierarchy of Armstrongs in the news this week. One is much more important than the other.
Neil Armstrong died last weekend. He was part of an extraordinary technological and ideological project that might well define America's material and scientific success in the 20th Century.
On October 4, 1957 the Soviet Union launched the world's first artificial satellite, Sputnik, into low Earth orbit. The impact was staggering. The free world almost had a collective nervous breakdown. They were shocked at the technological success of the Russian program. And they were frightened; the rockets used were converted military missiles. More, the Americans saw it as a blow to their country's substance, the way the Russians would react to Fischer beating Spassky in 1972.
The Americans mobilized and twelve years later on July 20, 1969, with Michael Collins piloting the main ship above the moon with less computing power than a modern smart phone, Armstrong and Edwin "Buzz" Aldrin landed a module on the moon below, almost a quarter million miles away from Earth. Armstrong took control of the landing himself during a glitch in the landing program and walked on the moon, the first man ever to do so. He was then joined by Aldrin. The ship and the men were returned safely to Earth. It was a project that combined science, technology, bravery, heroism and civic pride. It is doubtful that any such achievement in any other twelve year period in history is comparable. And the nation glowed with pride. It was the most extraordinary victory/achievement in history--and no one was hurt.
Over the last years the Americans have suffered. Their efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan have damaged them economically, the housing market was badly handled and resulted in great loss of national wealth, a natural disaster in New Orleans made them look ordinary. Production is down, debt is up and growth promises to be poor for the next years. Leadership seems diffident at best.
So it was surprising the NASA landing on the planet Mars was as underplayed as it was. One wonders if the current American international and domestic mea culpas have made them too modest.
There have seven landings on Mars, two Viking, one Pathfinder, two Rover, one Phoenix and the most recent, Mars Science Lab Curiosity. All of these landings have been American. The Curiosity landing was high risk involving a four-step process that NASA scientists called "Seven Minutes of Terror," requiring the vessel containing the car-sized, nuclear-powered lab to slow from 13,000 mph to a full stop in a few minutes. The American's recent achievement was considerable and they have dominated the efforts to explore Mars. Several nations including the Russians and the Chinese have made significant efforts to land on Mars with many spectacular and expensive failures. The Americans, down and hurt by error and circumstance in the working world, deserve some respect for their achievements on Mars.
They could start by connecting Armstrong's landing and the Mars landing for the heroic events they were and are. In public. Loudly.
Neil Armstrong died last weekend. He was part of an extraordinary technological and ideological project that might well define America's material and scientific success in the 20th Century.
On October 4, 1957 the Soviet Union launched the world's first artificial satellite, Sputnik, into low Earth orbit. The impact was staggering. The free world almost had a collective nervous breakdown. They were shocked at the technological success of the Russian program. And they were frightened; the rockets used were converted military missiles. More, the Americans saw it as a blow to their country's substance, the way the Russians would react to Fischer beating Spassky in 1972.
The Americans mobilized and twelve years later on July 20, 1969, with Michael Collins piloting the main ship above the moon with less computing power than a modern smart phone, Armstrong and Edwin "Buzz" Aldrin landed a module on the moon below, almost a quarter million miles away from Earth. Armstrong took control of the landing himself during a glitch in the landing program and walked on the moon, the first man ever to do so. He was then joined by Aldrin. The ship and the men were returned safely to Earth. It was a project that combined science, technology, bravery, heroism and civic pride. It is doubtful that any such achievement in any other twelve year period in history is comparable. And the nation glowed with pride. It was the most extraordinary victory/achievement in history--and no one was hurt.
Over the last years the Americans have suffered. Their efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan have damaged them economically, the housing market was badly handled and resulted in great loss of national wealth, a natural disaster in New Orleans made them look ordinary. Production is down, debt is up and growth promises to be poor for the next years. Leadership seems diffident at best.
So it was surprising the NASA landing on the planet Mars was as underplayed as it was. One wonders if the current American international and domestic mea culpas have made them too modest.
There have seven landings on Mars, two Viking, one Pathfinder, two Rover, one Phoenix and the most recent, Mars Science Lab Curiosity. All of these landings have been American. The Curiosity landing was high risk involving a four-step process that NASA scientists called "Seven Minutes of Terror," requiring the vessel containing the car-sized, nuclear-powered lab to slow from 13,000 mph to a full stop in a few minutes. The American's recent achievement was considerable and they have dominated the efforts to explore Mars. Several nations including the Russians and the Chinese have made significant efforts to land on Mars with many spectacular and expensive failures. The Americans, down and hurt by error and circumstance in the working world, deserve some respect for their achievements on Mars.
They could start by connecting Armstrong's landing and the Mars landing for the heroic events they were and are. In public. Loudly.
Monday, August 27, 2012
Armstrong and Roving Bands of the Morally Outraged
An American nonprofit body called the USADA is taking Lance Armstrong's French
medals away. They successfully blocked Armstrong's complaints in an American court.
Will the USADA now send their police to pick the medals up?
Armstrong's original lawsuit challenged the USADA's right to bring any judgment against him and criticized the USADA for ignoring "500 to 600" drug tests they say Armstrong had passed. His attorneys said the USADA was, instead, bringing a case based on witness testimony, known as "non-analytical positive testing."
Non-analytical positive testing.
Armstrong has said the agency violates his constitutional rights to due process. USADA officials say their process is fair and widely recognized by sports agencies across the globe.
That is apparently not entirely true.
In fact, the latest charges from USADA has spawned a turf war between competing sports agencies. The Switzerland-based International Cycling Union said USADA did not have jurisdiction to pursue the case and urged the American agency to turn over evidence to them to determine if an investigation should proceed. On the other hand, the World Anti-Doping Agency supported USADA's claims of jurisdiction. Any similarity between these and the jurisdictional disputes of FBI and the CIA are coincidental; the FBI and the CIA are not self-appointed.
The International Cycling Union is the Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI), the world governing body for sports cycling that oversees international competitive cycling events, issues licenses, enforces rules--particularly doping--classifies races and manages the points ranking system across mountain, road and track biking for both men and women, amateur and professional. It also oversees world championships.
The World Anti-Doping Agency was created in 1999 by the International Olympic Committee after it stole the march on the other nonprofits and held the world's first World Conference on Doping in Sports (in Lausanne, of course).
The U.S. Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) itself is the national anti-doping organization for the Olympic movement in the United States. It is non-profit (of course) and non-governmental (it receives $10 million a year from the U.S.).
The particulars of the case are not so important (although arson, child molestation and armed robbery have shorter statutes of limitation than many of the charges against him.) Armstrong's personal achievements far outstrip his athletic ones. For this reason he is held in some considerable regard and, consequently, self-appointed disciplinary agencies should be on firm footing when dealing with him. Otherwise they run the risk of appearing to be scolding, free-booting, blue-nose self-righteous clerics looking for a witch to dunk and retrieving awards they did not give--reminiscent of those constantly outraged groups that periodically put George Bush on trial in abstentia in college classrooms during lunch.
Here is a statement from Armstrong's site: http://lancearmstrong.com/news-events/lance-armstongs-statement-of-august-23-2012
Armstrong's original lawsuit challenged the USADA's right to bring any judgment against him and criticized the USADA for ignoring "500 to 600" drug tests they say Armstrong had passed. His attorneys said the USADA was, instead, bringing a case based on witness testimony, known as "non-analytical positive testing."
Non-analytical positive testing.
Armstrong has said the agency violates his constitutional rights to due process. USADA officials say their process is fair and widely recognized by sports agencies across the globe.
That is apparently not entirely true.
In fact, the latest charges from USADA has spawned a turf war between competing sports agencies. The Switzerland-based International Cycling Union said USADA did not have jurisdiction to pursue the case and urged the American agency to turn over evidence to them to determine if an investigation should proceed. On the other hand, the World Anti-Doping Agency supported USADA's claims of jurisdiction. Any similarity between these and the jurisdictional disputes of FBI and the CIA are coincidental; the FBI and the CIA are not self-appointed.
The International Cycling Union is the Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI), the world governing body for sports cycling that oversees international competitive cycling events, issues licenses, enforces rules--particularly doping--classifies races and manages the points ranking system across mountain, road and track biking for both men and women, amateur and professional. It also oversees world championships.
The World Anti-Doping Agency was created in 1999 by the International Olympic Committee after it stole the march on the other nonprofits and held the world's first World Conference on Doping in Sports (in Lausanne, of course).
The U.S. Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) itself is the national anti-doping organization for the Olympic movement in the United States. It is non-profit (of course) and non-governmental (it receives $10 million a year from the U.S.).
The particulars of the case are not so important (although arson, child molestation and armed robbery have shorter statutes of limitation than many of the charges against him.) Armstrong's personal achievements far outstrip his athletic ones. For this reason he is held in some considerable regard and, consequently, self-appointed disciplinary agencies should be on firm footing when dealing with him. Otherwise they run the risk of appearing to be scolding, free-booting, blue-nose self-righteous clerics looking for a witch to dunk and retrieving awards they did not give--reminiscent of those constantly outraged groups that periodically put George Bush on trial in abstentia in college classrooms during lunch.
Here is a statement from Armstrong's site: http://lancearmstrong.com/news-events/lance-armstongs-statement-of-august-23-2012
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Sunday Sermon 8/26/12
Sunday's readings are always complementary. This Sunday's epistle,
however, is clearly a mistake. In Paul's epistle he makes a sensible
argument for order and structure. Regrettably, included hidden within, is
the fearful lightning rod for suffragettes: "Let women be subject to
their husbands." Paul's ignorance of Locke and Madison has allowed this
epistle to overshadow today's crucial gospel, the culmination of the Son
of Man/Bread of Life narrative.
What happens? Dissension. Disbelief. Abandonment. Well meaning followers can not continue; Judas is given a motive. The faithful apostles are left with the weakest of options: "Lord. to whom shall we go?"
That will not be reason enough if the story ends in death.
What happens? Dissension. Disbelief. Abandonment. Well meaning followers can not continue; Judas is given a motive. The faithful apostles are left with the weakest of options: "Lord. to whom shall we go?"
That will not be reason enough if the story ends in death.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Cab Thoughts 8/25/12
China is building 1 of every 4 cars in the world.
It is good to see that Obama has drawn the line in Syria at the use of chemical weapons against the nation's civilians. There are so many more humane ways to kill defenseless populations.
A local man was found guilty of beating a girl to death and putting her body in a dumpster. His defense at sentencing plans to be, according to his attorney, that he was bullied as a child.
In 1202 Fibonacci, aka Leonardo of Pisa, published his "book of calculation". He is famous for his Fibonacci numbers (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8...where the next number is the sum of the preceding two--a sequence he observed by watching rabbits multiply but that he attributed to India and, at high levels, the highest two divided into one another approaches "the golden mean"). But his "number" is only a small part of his contribution because, in his book, he introduced "Indian Numbers" which replaced the roman numerals. This is the introduction of the base-ten numbers system. He began chapter 1 of his book with:
"The nine Indian figures are: 987654321.
With these nine figures, and with the sign 0, which the Arabs call zephyr, any number whatsoever is written."
This was the beginning of modern numbers.
Ken Burns gave a speech on CNN this weekend. He was very impressive and made me want to watch his "Prohibition" documentary.
Sci-fi idea: To save energy a crew lands its ship on an asteroid and "hitchhikes" out of the solar system.
The Detroit Water and Sewerage Department has a position, filled, whose job description is to shoe Department horses. The Department has no horses. A consultant recently suggested the Department decrease its 257 employees by 80%.
James Taylor was a heroin addict who ended up for a while in a high end rehabilitation hospital called McLean. From "Fire and Rain" by Browne: "One day at dinner in an adjoining ward, he looked over and saw -- or thought he saw -- Ray Charles. 'I thought I was hallucinating,' he recalled. 'It scared the shit out of me.' But his eyes didn't deceive him; Charles, who'd been sent to McLean after a heroin bust, was actually there. The sight of one of his heroes in the ward haunted him for decades."
Assange, a man hiding from his own nation's justice system, holds a press conference in sanctuary, the press shows up, and he gives a moral lecture to the United States!
An interesting opinion came up recently: If the "Too Big to Fail" banks are a crazy mixture of profit and loss segments, what is to prevent a hedge fund or vulture capital group from carving them up?
According to a recent book, Tolstoy lifted many of the backgrounds and personalities of his female characters from his wife's letters and diaries.
Theodore Dalrymple writes that the Indians complete ignore the Olympics. They invest it with no ideological or nationalistic symbolism. They are, however, going to Mars.
Last week, Louis Bacon, the head of the powerful hedge fund Moore Capital Management, announced that he was returning one quarter of his largest fund, about $2 billion, to his investors. He was quoted as saying, "The political involvement is so extreme – we have not seen this since the postwar era. What they are doing is trying to thwart natural market outcomes. It is amazing how important the decision-making of one person, Angela Merkel, has become to world markets."
Bacon was saying that the political influence in Europe was so great that Europe--and the markets--had become unpredictable.
"First principle: any explanation is better than none." Friedrich Nietzsche said this in an effort to explain how people were averse to uncertainty and eager to accept any explanation to exorcise it---exactly opposite of the scientific principle demanding accuracy from information. Nietzsche's "explanation" is not information or conclusion, it is therapy.
U.S. petroleum deliveries, a measure of demand, fell by 2.7% in July from a year earlier to the lowest level in any month since September 2008, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said Friday. Demand in the world's biggest oil consumer, at 18.062 million bopd, was the weakest for the month of July since 1995. This, despite the fact the U.S. GDP is the highest it has ever been. We are growing and using less oil.
Golden oldie (with some current application): http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2012/04/revolt-of-masses-by-ortega-y-gasset.html
Aaaaaannnnnnd....a chart, a surprising one:
It is good to see that Obama has drawn the line in Syria at the use of chemical weapons against the nation's civilians. There are so many more humane ways to kill defenseless populations.
A local man was found guilty of beating a girl to death and putting her body in a dumpster. His defense at sentencing plans to be, according to his attorney, that he was bullied as a child.
In 1202 Fibonacci, aka Leonardo of Pisa, published his "book of calculation". He is famous for his Fibonacci numbers (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8...where the next number is the sum of the preceding two--a sequence he observed by watching rabbits multiply but that he attributed to India and, at high levels, the highest two divided into one another approaches "the golden mean"). But his "number" is only a small part of his contribution because, in his book, he introduced "Indian Numbers" which replaced the roman numerals. This is the introduction of the base-ten numbers system. He began chapter 1 of his book with:
"The nine Indian figures are: 987654321.
With these nine figures, and with the sign 0, which the Arabs call zephyr, any number whatsoever is written."
This was the beginning of modern numbers.
The current political narrative is that Obama is dismissive of wealth, even among his own donors and supporters. In 2008,
Obama outspent John McCain by around two to one. This year Super-PACs
supportive of President Obama have spent twice as much on
anti-Romney ads as conservative PACs have spent on anti-Obama ads. The
NYT reports some analysts believe that Obama, after raising and spending
$750 million in 2008, will come close to $1 billion this year.
Microsoft has given $440,000, University of California $490,000. So he's
not above the money, just the donors?
Sci-fi idea: To save energy a crew lands its ship on an asteroid and "hitchhikes" out of the solar system.
The Detroit Water and Sewerage Department has a position, filled, whose job description is to shoe Department horses. The Department has no horses. A consultant recently suggested the Department decrease its 257 employees by 80%.
James Taylor was a heroin addict who ended up for a while in a high end rehabilitation hospital called McLean. From "Fire and Rain" by Browne: "One day at dinner in an adjoining ward, he looked over and saw -- or thought he saw -- Ray Charles. 'I thought I was hallucinating,' he recalled. 'It scared the shit out of me.' But his eyes didn't deceive him; Charles, who'd been sent to McLean after a heroin bust, was actually there. The sight of one of his heroes in the ward haunted him for decades."
Assange, a man hiding from his own nation's justice system, holds a press conference in sanctuary, the press shows up, and he gives a moral lecture to the United States!
An interesting opinion came up recently: If the "Too Big to Fail" banks are a crazy mixture of profit and loss segments, what is to prevent a hedge fund or vulture capital group from carving them up?
According to a recent book, Tolstoy lifted many of the backgrounds and personalities of his female characters from his wife's letters and diaries.
Theodore Dalrymple writes that the Indians complete ignore the Olympics. They invest it with no ideological or nationalistic symbolism. They are, however, going to Mars.
Last week, Louis Bacon, the head of the powerful hedge fund Moore Capital Management, announced that he was returning one quarter of his largest fund, about $2 billion, to his investors. He was quoted as saying, "The political involvement is so extreme – we have not seen this since the postwar era. What they are doing is trying to thwart natural market outcomes. It is amazing how important the decision-making of one person, Angela Merkel, has become to world markets."
Bacon was saying that the political influence in Europe was so great that Europe--and the markets--had become unpredictable.
"First principle: any explanation is better than none." Friedrich Nietzsche said this in an effort to explain how people were averse to uncertainty and eager to accept any explanation to exorcise it---exactly opposite of the scientific principle demanding accuracy from information. Nietzsche's "explanation" is not information or conclusion, it is therapy.
U.S. petroleum deliveries, a measure of demand, fell by 2.7% in July from a year earlier to the lowest level in any month since September 2008, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said Friday. Demand in the world's biggest oil consumer, at 18.062 million bopd, was the weakest for the month of July since 1995. This, despite the fact the U.S. GDP is the highest it has ever been. We are growing and using less oil.
Golden oldie (with some current application): http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2012/04/revolt-of-masses-by-ortega-y-gasset.html
Aaaaaannnnnnd....a chart, a surprising one:
Friday, August 24, 2012
EV and Anti-EVolution
Vic Heylen, director of the Flanders Centre for Automotive Research
based near Antwerp, Belgium, was quoted recently in the Detroit News. He
says the electric engine and car effort has become too
big to fail. "Latest sales figures are indeed disastrous. The EV market
is dead. There is just no one with the political guts to sign the death
certificate," Heylen said.
Western European sales of electric vehicles certainly were horrible, just under 11,000 in the first half of 2012, or 0.15% of all sales. (Obama's State of the Union Address in 2011 predicted 1 million EV's produced in the U.S. in 2015 but only 11,000 EV's were sold of 13 million cars in the U.S. in 2011.) True, they are twice as expensive as conventional cars, their batteries are huge and take up both space and insurance costs as they are prone to explode (Chevrolet Volt's 16 kWh battery costs around $8,000 today), they have little luggage space, their driving range is very limited and, of course, for these reasons they are nerve-wracking to drive.
Yet they stagger on, despite their poor sales and dangers. But Heylen notes a growing parallel market of advisers and support groups, a nice little growth industry. "During the first three months of 2012 I counted 89 Electric Car Forums and Conferences with very high attendance fees. Prices for reports for forecast, studies etc increased from around 700 euros ($870) to around 3,000 euros ($3,700) today," Heylen said.
Probably run by nonprofits.
Western European sales of electric vehicles certainly were horrible, just under 11,000 in the first half of 2012, or 0.15% of all sales. (Obama's State of the Union Address in 2011 predicted 1 million EV's produced in the U.S. in 2015 but only 11,000 EV's were sold of 13 million cars in the U.S. in 2011.) True, they are twice as expensive as conventional cars, their batteries are huge and take up both space and insurance costs as they are prone to explode (Chevrolet Volt's 16 kWh battery costs around $8,000 today), they have little luggage space, their driving range is very limited and, of course, for these reasons they are nerve-wracking to drive.
Yet they stagger on, despite their poor sales and dangers. But Heylen notes a growing parallel market of advisers and support groups, a nice little growth industry. "During the first three months of 2012 I counted 89 Electric Car Forums and Conferences with very high attendance fees. Prices for reports for forecast, studies etc increased from around 700 euros ($870) to around 3,000 euros ($3,700) today," Heylen said.
Probably run by nonprofits.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Akin to Stupidity
The Todd Akin flap will become a national outrage. His quotes will echo through the national campaign as often as "You didn't build that" and somehow this idiot will become emblematic of a huge, bewildered group of the voting public.
But the Todd Akin flap is interesting for what it will not become.
What it will not become is a stimulus for debate over the qualifications and limits of the people who volunteer to lead us. Why would a political science graduate have an opinion on the human reproductive system? Or solar power engineering? Or global warming statistics? And what kind of person is so arrogant as to force his ill-informed opinions on an innocent public?
Anyone in a democracy can grow up to be president --and often does. It is the expansiveness of his reach and the limits of his grasp that are the problems.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
IEA and Gas
The IEA was founded in response to the 1973/4 oil crisis in order to help countries co-ordinate a collective response to major disruptions in oil supply through the release of emergency oil stocks to the markets. It is made up of 28 member nations and funded by member nations and private donations. Since the oil crisis is over one might expect its activities to decline but the IEA budget for 2010 was EUR 26 million dollars.
The IEA Execuive Director, Maria van der Hoeven spoke recently at Rice University and made some interesting observations as reported by Simone Sebastian in FuelFix. She stated the public concern over fracking was legitimate and companies' refusal to take these concerns seriously could result in a public movement against the technology. However, she said, the curtailing of shale gas production would have a negative environmental impact and hinder progress toward energy security. If natural gas were lost, coal would replace 75a% of it. "Natural gas in the power sector has caused carbon emissions to fall rapidly. And it’s the shale gas revolution that made this possible,” she said.
In addition to the environmental benefit, booming growth of unconventional natural gas production is revolutionizing the global energy market and will likely turn the United States into a net exporter of the fuel, van der Hoeven said.
Read that again: The U.S. a net exporter of energy. And the threat to that is company arrogance and public foolishness.
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
India and Energy
India's daily peak demand is regularly 12% higher than peak supply but
the shortage is managed through rolling or controlled blackouts that cut
electricity supply deliberately to specific locations to balance supply
and demand.
America typically builds 10,000 to 20,000 megawatts of new generation every year. India has built only about 50,000 megawatts of new generation in the last 5 years or about 5% of the total US generating capacity.
The basic problem in India is that daily demand outstrips supply. This will be exaggerated as growth makes new energy demands. But these energy demands pale in comparison to their national expectations. How can an economy grow in such uncertainty?
America typically builds 10,000 to 20,000 megawatts of new generation every year. India has built only about 50,000 megawatts of new generation in the last 5 years or about 5% of the total US generating capacity.
The basic problem in India is that daily demand outstrips supply. This will be exaggerated as growth makes new energy demands. But these energy demands pale in comparison to their national expectations. How can an economy grow in such uncertainty?
Monday, August 20, 2012
Self Inflicted Perceptions
One wonders at the causes of malaise in a culture and the cures.
The S&P 500 has been up 74% since the day President Obama was inaugurated in 2009 and 12% so far in 2012.
While the stock averages are not necessarily reflective of the economy they are not isolated from it. More, some people are completely dependent upon it, either directly or indirectly. Yet the news media has discussed the markets rarely. The conservative outlets, especially FOX, have been quite mute about it. But it is especially interesting how quiet the Left has been.
Perhaps Obama has painted himself into such an anti-capital, anti-rich guy corner that he does not want to take credit for stock market improvement because the stock market is popularly associated with capital, wealth and the bad guys of Wall Street. That makes him less dependent upon objective measurements and more vulnerable to the subjective.
Strangely, that used to be his strength.
The S&P 500 has been up 74% since the day President Obama was inaugurated in 2009 and 12% so far in 2012.
While the stock averages are not necessarily reflective of the economy they are not isolated from it. More, some people are completely dependent upon it, either directly or indirectly. Yet the news media has discussed the markets rarely. The conservative outlets, especially FOX, have been quite mute about it. But it is especially interesting how quiet the Left has been.
Perhaps Obama has painted himself into such an anti-capital, anti-rich guy corner that he does not want to take credit for stock market improvement because the stock market is popularly associated with capital, wealth and the bad guys of Wall Street. That makes him less dependent upon objective measurements and more vulnerable to the subjective.
Strangely, that used to be his strength.
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Sunday Sermon 8/19/12
In today's gospel, Christ hammers away at His Bread of Life metaphor; He
just will not give it up. It reinforces how important an idea it is to
Him. "He that eateth my flesh, and drinketh my blood, hath everlasting
life: and I will raise him up on the last day."
This is usually translated as a reference to Holy Communion, The Eucharist. But why would Christ be speaking to future devotees, to the Church of the Middle Ages and now? And what could this have possibly meant to His contemporary Jewish audience?
In juxtaposing the manna from heaven and the Bread of Life, Christ is distinguishing the material from the immaterial, the physical from the spiritual in the debate that has repeated itself since recorded time. He is saying that the materialists have a firm grasp of one appendage of the elephant of life.
The fatal one.
This is usually translated as a reference to Holy Communion, The Eucharist. But why would Christ be speaking to future devotees, to the Church of the Middle Ages and now? And what could this have possibly meant to His contemporary Jewish audience?
In juxtaposing the manna from heaven and the Bread of Life, Christ is distinguishing the material from the immaterial, the physical from the spiritual in the debate that has repeated itself since recorded time. He is saying that the materialists have a firm grasp of one appendage of the elephant of life.
The fatal one.
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Cab Thoughts 8/18/12
James McDonald, the pitcher for the Pirates, continues to search for his
pre-All Star level. Pre-All Star he had a 2.37 ERA. But in his six
starts since July 7, his ERA has been 8.71. According to the WSJ:
"Since 1933, only one other pitcher who qualified for an ERA title had a
sub-3.00 ERA before the break and one over 8.00 after—Luis Arroyo for
the 1955 Cardinals (2.44/8.19), according to Stats LLC." Last night he pitched 6 shutout innings and gave up two hits.
Nothing but the return to the horse will make these environmentalist happy. The Portland Audubon Society and Oregon Natural Desert Association say a wind farm on Oregon's Steens Mountain, along with needed access roads and transmission lines, would threaten eagles, sage grouse and bighorn sheep and call it the "antithesis" of "responsible renewable energy development."
Beer prices are estimated to rise 30% in the next year due to the drought. So far, no government intervention. Wouldn't you know.
The estimates are that if you qualify for Social Benefits in 2010 you will have put 578 thousand dollars in and will withdraw a total of 575 thousand dollars out; if you qualify in 2030, you will have put in 796 thousand in and will withdraw a total of 650 thousand dollars out. These numbers are not, repeat not, inflation corrected.
The Diaoyu islands in the China Sea are islands claimed by both China and Japan. This week they were occupied by Chinese activists. A disputed territory attacked and occupied by activists, not military. The Israelis have done a version of this in the ultimate passive-aggressive national behavior. Challenging but safe. Who will attack unarmed activists--in front of the press? Like lying down in front of a tank or placing your boat in the path of a whaler.
There is a book about Arnold Rothstein (the guy who fixed the 1919 World Series) by David Pietrusza that talks about how the New York Jewish community was devastated by immigration to America, how young boys rejected the religion of their fathers almost immediately on disembarking. There is also a section on prostitution in the Jewish section. It was unbelievably widespread, a gigantic industry that destroyed families and culture.
The strangely named Affordable Care Act kicks in with its mandatory payments when a business hits 50 employees. One creepy option is to start subdividing your company into sub-companies every time your employee number hits 49. I don't know how feasible this is either on an organizational or economic level.
“If we’re going to have free trade with China, why not Cuba?” said Paul Ryan in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. How much do you want to bet that this theoretical and interesting question becomes a bludgeon in the next month, but only at very specific audiences as the left generally agrees with him.
Interestingly, so many parents are in financial trouble that students' grandparents are beginning to guarantee their student loans. A new wave of attachments of Social Security checks is appearing as students default.
A survey of Generation Y reports that 83% would rather have a smart phone than a car. Some economic researchers think this indifference to cars is already showing up in decreased car sales and expect a drop in annual sales of 2 million a year in the U.S.
Curiosity on Mars amidst the landing debris. One can always look at this as more human contamination. ("now the corruption starts") but this is still a great achievement:
BMW has a specially structured senior workers assembly line.
The FCC is considering taxing smart grids. It's only a matter of time before we start getting government phone calls asking, "Hello. We notice your energy usage pattern has changed. Is everything ok?"
(From"Dreamland Adventures...by David Randell) "Within the first twenty-four hours of sleep deprivation, the blood pressure starts to increase. Not long afterward, the metabolism levels go haywire, giving a person an uncontrollable craving for carbohydrates. The body temperature drops and the immune system gets weaker. If this goes on for too long, there is a good chance that the mind will turn against itself, making a person experience visions and hear phantom sounds akin to a bad acid trip. At the same time, the ability to make simple decisions or recall obvious facts drops off severely. It is a bizarre downward spiral that is all the more peculiar because it can be stopped completely, and all of its effects will vanish, simply by sleeping for a couple of hours."
This accompanies a review of two studies of sleep deprived rats, all of whom deteriorated and died in two weeks for no apparent cause. This is scary stuff.
AAANNNNDDDD a graph:
Nothing but the return to the horse will make these environmentalist happy. The Portland Audubon Society and Oregon Natural Desert Association say a wind farm on Oregon's Steens Mountain, along with needed access roads and transmission lines, would threaten eagles, sage grouse and bighorn sheep and call it the "antithesis" of "responsible renewable energy development."
Beer prices are estimated to rise 30% in the next year due to the drought. So far, no government intervention. Wouldn't you know.
The estimates are that if you qualify for Social Benefits in 2010 you will have put 578 thousand dollars in and will withdraw a total of 575 thousand dollars out; if you qualify in 2030, you will have put in 796 thousand in and will withdraw a total of 650 thousand dollars out. These numbers are not, repeat not, inflation corrected.
The Diaoyu islands in the China Sea are islands claimed by both China and Japan. This week they were occupied by Chinese activists. A disputed territory attacked and occupied by activists, not military. The Israelis have done a version of this in the ultimate passive-aggressive national behavior. Challenging but safe. Who will attack unarmed activists--in front of the press? Like lying down in front of a tank or placing your boat in the path of a whaler.
There is a book about Arnold Rothstein (the guy who fixed the 1919 World Series) by David Pietrusza that talks about how the New York Jewish community was devastated by immigration to America, how young boys rejected the religion of their fathers almost immediately on disembarking. There is also a section on prostitution in the Jewish section. It was unbelievably widespread, a gigantic industry that destroyed families and culture.
The strangely named Affordable Care Act kicks in with its mandatory payments when a business hits 50 employees. One creepy option is to start subdividing your company into sub-companies every time your employee number hits 49. I don't know how feasible this is either on an organizational or economic level.
“If we’re going to have free trade with China, why not Cuba?” said Paul Ryan in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. How much do you want to bet that this theoretical and interesting question becomes a bludgeon in the next month, but only at very specific audiences as the left generally agrees with him.
Interestingly, so many parents are in financial trouble that students' grandparents are beginning to guarantee their student loans. A new wave of attachments of Social Security checks is appearing as students default.
A survey of Generation Y reports that 83% would rather have a smart phone than a car. Some economic researchers think this indifference to cars is already showing up in decreased car sales and expect a drop in annual sales of 2 million a year in the U.S.
Curiosity on Mars amidst the landing debris. One can always look at this as more human contamination. ("now the corruption starts") but this is still a great achievement:
BMW has a specially structured senior workers assembly line.
The FCC is considering taxing smart grids. It's only a matter of time before we start getting government phone calls asking, "Hello. We notice your energy usage pattern has changed. Is everything ok?"
(From"Dreamland Adventures...by David Randell) "Within the first twenty-four hours of sleep deprivation, the blood pressure starts to increase. Not long afterward, the metabolism levels go haywire, giving a person an uncontrollable craving for carbohydrates. The body temperature drops and the immune system gets weaker. If this goes on for too long, there is a good chance that the mind will turn against itself, making a person experience visions and hear phantom sounds akin to a bad acid trip. At the same time, the ability to make simple decisions or recall obvious facts drops off severely. It is a bizarre downward spiral that is all the more peculiar because it can be stopped completely, and all of its effects will vanish, simply by sleeping for a couple of hours."
This accompanies a review of two studies of sleep deprived rats, all of whom deteriorated and died in two weeks for no apparent cause. This is scary stuff.
AAANNNNDDDD a graph:
Friday, August 17, 2012
A True Paul Ryan Story
Several years ago an aide in the House of Representatives was working
late in her office. At around eleven at night the representative whose
office was next door, Paul Ryan, walked in and asked a favor. One of his
staffers was caught on a bridge with a broken down car and he had no
way to get to her. Would she drive him there?
The aide agreed and drove Ryan to the site where Ryan got out of the car, took his jacket off, changed the woman's tire and the aide then drove him back to the office.
The aide agreed and drove Ryan to the site where Ryan got out of the car, took his jacket off, changed the woman's tire and the aide then drove him back to the office.
Thursday, August 16, 2012
The Duplicitous Demanding Consistancy
An interesting approach to the VP nominee Paul Ryan has emerged for Obama supporters.
Liberal critics gleefully report Ryan supported President George W. Bush’s Medicare prescription drug program, the TARP bailout of Wall Street, and the auto bailout.
He also guided stimulus funds to a Wisconsin conservation group.And Ryan pursued earmarks-- appropriations by Congress members for specific favored projects; $5.4 million in earmarks in fiscal 2008, according to a self appointed "watchdog" group, Taxpayers for Common Sense. The requests included $3.28 million for bus service in Wisconsin, $1.38 million for the Ice Age National Scenic Trail, and $735,000 for the Janesville transit system. He also voted in favor of the Alaskan Bridge to Nowhere.
So the Democrats, the party of big government, public sector growth and public sector unions think he is a bad candidate because he takes advantage of their system and votes for their projects? Or are these consummate politicians offended by inconsistency?
Liberal critics gleefully report Ryan supported President George W. Bush’s Medicare prescription drug program, the TARP bailout of Wall Street, and the auto bailout.
He also guided stimulus funds to a Wisconsin conservation group.And Ryan pursued earmarks-- appropriations by Congress members for specific favored projects; $5.4 million in earmarks in fiscal 2008, according to a self appointed "watchdog" group, Taxpayers for Common Sense. The requests included $3.28 million for bus service in Wisconsin, $1.38 million for the Ice Age National Scenic Trail, and $735,000 for the Janesville transit system. He also voted in favor of the Alaskan Bridge to Nowhere.
So the Democrats, the party of big government, public sector growth and public sector unions think he is a bad candidate because he takes advantage of their system and votes for their projects? Or are these consummate politicians offended by inconsistency?
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
A Leader in Search of a Sword
Romney's choice of Paul Ryan as VP running mate was surprising and
dangerous because it takes an unusual political risk: Ryan has a
definable background. Both Romney and Obama have glowed in a vacuum;
there is little, even now, known about them. Even the three year president
seems shrouded. Indeed, a public reason Romney has admitted he has
withheld his tax returns was to keep the opposition from finding any
wedge, however small, to use in attack ads.
Ryan, compared to the two presidential candidates, is an open book. And he will suffer for it. But, strangely, this VP choice actually elevates the election. Ryan will drag the two presidential candidates (kicking and screaming) to a higher debate. The country is facing significant choices: public vs. private sector, spontaneous vs. managed economy, the risk of growth vs. the safety of decline, an international free world umbrella or withdrawal, grappling with the uncertainty of a free economy in the 21st century vs. the mixed results of the managed economy of the 20th century progressives, the attempted management of our outrageous social programs or the deferring of them.
It is embarrassing that it would require a VP candidate to clarify all these important questions.
Ryan, compared to the two presidential candidates, is an open book. And he will suffer for it. But, strangely, this VP choice actually elevates the election. Ryan will drag the two presidential candidates (kicking and screaming) to a higher debate. The country is facing significant choices: public vs. private sector, spontaneous vs. managed economy, the risk of growth vs. the safety of decline, an international free world umbrella or withdrawal, grappling with the uncertainty of a free economy in the 21st century vs. the mixed results of the managed economy of the 20th century progressives, the attempted management of our outrageous social programs or the deferring of them.
It is embarrassing that it would require a VP candidate to clarify all these important questions.
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Biden 2
While the Democrat hierarchy must be debating Biden's candidacy, there is another fascinating aspect to Biden in the upcoming race: While
he does not stack up well against Ryan generally, he is Catholic.
Ryan, as a Catholic, offers a concrete challenge to traditional Catholic Democrat votes that will be questioning Obama over the requirement that Catholic institutions financially support abortifactants through the new health care system. This challenge could easily be presented as part of Ryan's small government message. The rank-and-file Catholic is much less devoted to the right-to-life position than is the church hierarchy. Ditto the gay rights debate. But they are very sensitive to the religious freedom question and might mobilize against Obama over it if they had a good leader.
Ryan might do that, but Biden could blunt it.
Ryan, as a Catholic, offers a concrete challenge to traditional Catholic Democrat votes that will be questioning Obama over the requirement that Catholic institutions financially support abortifactants through the new health care system. This challenge could easily be presented as part of Ryan's small government message. The rank-and-file Catholic is much less devoted to the right-to-life position than is the church hierarchy. Ditto the gay rights debate. But they are very sensitive to the religious freedom question and might mobilize against Obama over it if they had a good leader.
Ryan might do that, but Biden could blunt it.
Monday, August 13, 2012
Ryan's Ripple Effect to Biden
Right now thousands of so-called journalists and political party
operatives are combing through Ryan's high school transcripts and
childhood associates looking for something to smear him with. But there
are real and immediate problems for the Democrats. Ryan does raise the
bar for the two presidential candidates as he is a man with serious and
public concerns about the nation that transcend his own ambition. He is
both earnest and able which, of course, raises the real and immediate
question: What about Biden? He is neither earnest nor able. Does Obama
dump him? Can Obama allow Ryan to force his hand? But Biden will have to
debate Ryan; who can imagine that?
Replacing a guy with two craniotomies who is a heartbeat away should be easy enough but he was picked for his labor connections and his inoffensiveness. The Democrats are such a crazy quilt of extremities and loyalties replacing him might be dangerous. Worse, whom do you chose?
Imagine, for example, replacing Biden with Pelosi. Or Hillary.
Replacing a guy with two craniotomies who is a heartbeat away should be easy enough but he was picked for his labor connections and his inoffensiveness. The Democrats are such a crazy quilt of extremities and loyalties replacing him might be dangerous. Worse, whom do you chose?
Imagine, for example, replacing Biden with Pelosi. Or Hillary.
Sunday, August 12, 2012
Sunday Sermon 8/12/12
The Gospel today is a continuation of John's writings of Christ's "Bread
of Life" theme, a demanding and revolutionary concept that causes great
division among the Jews and, soon, among his own followers. Here
appears the "Son of Man" quote, a reference to a divine being in Daniel.
Modern scholars, most hostile to Christians (and strangely taken
seriously by them) have claimed this term is a general and poetic term
without any biblical implications. By John's account, Christ's audience
was not so abstract. Christ is claiming divinity here and they knew it.
It is a turning point of Christ's ministry. He is no longer a preacher
of forgiveness and kindness--as if that were not enough--but he also
claims divinity. His audience asks each other, “This man is the son of
Joseph, isn’t he? We know his father and mother. How can he say that he
has come from heaven?”
This is Christ's crucial moment. He is making the "Bread of Life," the essence of materialism, the essence of spirituality. The material world is pressed to reality's periphery.
And he is defining Himself for His followers: A man might follow and die for an ideal, he will not for a leader whose claims have been shown false.
This is Christ's crucial moment. He is making the "Bread of Life," the essence of materialism, the essence of spirituality. The material world is pressed to reality's periphery.
And he is defining Himself for His followers: A man might follow and die for an ideal, he will not for a leader whose claims have been shown false.
Saturday, August 11, 2012
Cab Thoughts 8/11/12
Gabby Douglas wins the individual gold medal in gymnastics and it is
reported as her breaking the gymnastic glass ceiling for
Afro-Americans. There's a glass ceiling in the U.S. for blacks in
athletics? Boy, there's a story.
The Ravich-Volker report on the states' budget crisis--a federal worry, if you can believe it--points to a number of problems, including the fact that state budget pension commitments are usually constitutionally guaranteed and can not be defaulted on. Another surprising result: While Medicaid costs have been increasing at a 7.2% annual rate, the increase is the result of increased benefits and enrollments, not medical costs. One in four New Yorkers are covered by Medicaid and 70% of those are not mandated by federal law. The states are volunteering, volunteering, for these unmeetable responsibilities.
A study by the Center for Immigration, based on 2010 and 2011 census data, found that 43 percent of immigrants who have been in the U.S. at least 20 years were using welfare benefits, a rate that is nearly twice as high as native-born Americans and nearly 50 percent higher than recent immigrants. Immigrants made up more than half of all farm-workers, 41 percent of taxi drivers and 48 percent of maids and house-cleaners, but they also represented about one-third of all computer programmers and 27 percent of doctors. This discrepancy seemed to disturb the study's authors as it made generalizations harder but there was one consistency: a key dividing line is educational attainment. Interestingly, that can be screened somewhat before immigration but apparently is not.
A123 Systems agreed to a non-binding MoU with Wanxiang for strategic investment of up to $450M; Wanxiang would own up to 80% of A123 common stock. This is another American company, created with taxpayer dollars and American investment, being sold to the Chinese. In essence, the Americans are doing the early funding to establish proof-of-concept and then relinquishing control to China.
Barry Soetoro? The President of the United States has an alias? Wonder why he changed it?
There are some interesting studies that show that cultures without numbers and preschool children do not see numbers as linear but as logarithmic. So the higher the numbers are, the closer together they feel. There are reasons for this, one can suppose. With small numbers in a culture, like money, the difference can be important, therefore large, but in larger numbers, like buffalo or cavalry, there is not much difference between "a lot" and "really, really a lot." So there's more difference between 1 and 3 than 11 and 13. That's the reason we are doing badly in school, it's that our technique is counter-intuitive! I can't wait for the new, new math. (There may be a business here--or at least an academic chair.)
The natural gas debate/assassination continues. PennEnvironment published a photo last year of a "flooded Marcellus drilling rig" that turns out to have been shot in Pakistan. As with so many of these political "discussions", the creed comes first followed by whatever information fits. But it is difficult to call overt lying and falsification of "evidence" confirmation bias.
Golden Oldie: http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2009/04/ultimate-outsource.html
"Sean Penn joined his friend Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez at an election rally in the city of Valencia over the weekend." (Reuters) Penn is campaigning for Hugo Chavez? With all the possible causes in the world, what would make him do that?
An interesting graph arrived, copied from Lott, the guy who analyzes violence statistics, particularly gun stats. He has numbers that show declines in murder rates after the adoption of concealed carry laws across a number of states.This is how we think as we look for any correlation. Unfortunately these numbers also correlate with the rise in cell phone use, the adoption of the three-four defensive line and outsourcing. Part confirmation bias, part imitative magic. It is as meaningless as identifying the Sikh shooter as former military.
As unconvincing as these gun stats are, there is no question about the targets of these loonies. Every time there is an uprising in Africa, the killers run to the local school or church and kill everyone in the monastery or nunnery. Gun free campuses. Gun free theaters. Now a Sikh temple. That might be a coincidence but...
Astonishing numbers on America's growth: by 1868, the United States had already become the world's largest economy, and by 1914 -- the dawn of World War I -- the US economy was larger than the economies of Britain, France, and Germany combined. Imagine the internal changes this growth required, especially labor. Now try to imagine that being managed from the top down.
A new book on killer whales ("Death at Sea World" by David Kirby) argues obviously that orcas are better off free than caged and so are the people around them. But there are some interesting things as well. Hunting behavior is learned, not instinctive; orcas from different groups hunt in unique ways. Orcas are responsible for 70% of Sea World revenues. They exhibit group parenting in the wild. 75% of males' lives is spent within one body length of his mother.
The results of the "collision of values" between Chic-fil-A and various municipalities has been less than nuclear. The world has got a lot more pretentious since the advent of the "mission statement."
From "Gravity's Engines" by Caleb Scharf: There are 10 billion stars in the universe for every human being who has ever walked the earth.
The Sands is being investigated for possible involvement in money laundering. A Vegas casino? Money laundering? I am shocked. Shocked.
Aaaanndd....a graph:
The Ravich-Volker report on the states' budget crisis--a federal worry, if you can believe it--points to a number of problems, including the fact that state budget pension commitments are usually constitutionally guaranteed and can not be defaulted on. Another surprising result: While Medicaid costs have been increasing at a 7.2% annual rate, the increase is the result of increased benefits and enrollments, not medical costs. One in four New Yorkers are covered by Medicaid and 70% of those are not mandated by federal law. The states are volunteering, volunteering, for these unmeetable responsibilities.
A study by the Center for Immigration, based on 2010 and 2011 census data, found that 43 percent of immigrants who have been in the U.S. at least 20 years were using welfare benefits, a rate that is nearly twice as high as native-born Americans and nearly 50 percent higher than recent immigrants. Immigrants made up more than half of all farm-workers, 41 percent of taxi drivers and 48 percent of maids and house-cleaners, but they also represented about one-third of all computer programmers and 27 percent of doctors. This discrepancy seemed to disturb the study's authors as it made generalizations harder but there was one consistency: a key dividing line is educational attainment. Interestingly, that can be screened somewhat before immigration but apparently is not.
A123 Systems agreed to a non-binding MoU with Wanxiang for strategic investment of up to $450M; Wanxiang would own up to 80% of A123 common stock. This is another American company, created with taxpayer dollars and American investment, being sold to the Chinese. In essence, the Americans are doing the early funding to establish proof-of-concept and then relinquishing control to China.
Barry Soetoro? The President of the United States has an alias? Wonder why he changed it?
There are some interesting studies that show that cultures without numbers and preschool children do not see numbers as linear but as logarithmic. So the higher the numbers are, the closer together they feel. There are reasons for this, one can suppose. With small numbers in a culture, like money, the difference can be important, therefore large, but in larger numbers, like buffalo or cavalry, there is not much difference between "a lot" and "really, really a lot." So there's more difference between 1 and 3 than 11 and 13. That's the reason we are doing badly in school, it's that our technique is counter-intuitive! I can't wait for the new, new math. (There may be a business here--or at least an academic chair.)
The natural gas debate/assassination continues. PennEnvironment published a photo last year of a "flooded Marcellus drilling rig" that turns out to have been shot in Pakistan. As with so many of these political "discussions", the creed comes first followed by whatever information fits. But it is difficult to call overt lying and falsification of "evidence" confirmation bias.
Golden Oldie: http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2009/04/ultimate-outsource.html
"Sean Penn joined his friend Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez at an election rally in the city of Valencia over the weekend." (Reuters) Penn is campaigning for Hugo Chavez? With all the possible causes in the world, what would make him do that?
An interesting graph arrived, copied from Lott, the guy who analyzes violence statistics, particularly gun stats. He has numbers that show declines in murder rates after the adoption of concealed carry laws across a number of states.This is how we think as we look for any correlation. Unfortunately these numbers also correlate with the rise in cell phone use, the adoption of the three-four defensive line and outsourcing. Part confirmation bias, part imitative magic. It is as meaningless as identifying the Sikh shooter as former military.
As unconvincing as these gun stats are, there is no question about the targets of these loonies. Every time there is an uprising in Africa, the killers run to the local school or church and kill everyone in the monastery or nunnery. Gun free campuses. Gun free theaters. Now a Sikh temple. That might be a coincidence but...
Astonishing numbers on America's growth: by 1868, the United States had already become the world's largest economy, and by 1914 -- the dawn of World War I -- the US economy was larger than the economies of Britain, France, and Germany combined. Imagine the internal changes this growth required, especially labor. Now try to imagine that being managed from the top down.
A new book on killer whales ("Death at Sea World" by David Kirby) argues obviously that orcas are better off free than caged and so are the people around them. But there are some interesting things as well. Hunting behavior is learned, not instinctive; orcas from different groups hunt in unique ways. Orcas are responsible for 70% of Sea World revenues. They exhibit group parenting in the wild. 75% of males' lives is spent within one body length of his mother.
The results of the "collision of values" between Chic-fil-A and various municipalities has been less than nuclear. The world has got a lot more pretentious since the advent of the "mission statement."
From "Gravity's Engines" by Caleb Scharf: There are 10 billion stars in the universe for every human being who has ever walked the earth.
The Sands is being investigated for possible involvement in money laundering. A Vegas casino? Money laundering? I am shocked. Shocked.
Aaaanndd....a graph:
Friday, August 10, 2012
Stalking the Apparently Fascinating Top 1%
The current shameless campaign of envy and division purposefully confuses income and
wealth, two entirely different entities; it also confuses the
people who are being maligned.
A recent Congressional Budget Office report shows that, while the average household income fell 12% between 2007 and 2009, the average for the lower four-fifths fell by 5% or less, while the average income for households in the top fifth fell 18%. For households in the apparently fascinating "top one percent", income fell by 36% in those same years.
This data is different from most that is published which generally show the upper bracket improves. Why? The IRS tracks people, not groups. The CBO numbers are based on IRS statistics of specific individuals and households over time through Social Security numbers, not the generalized numbers from each bracket where the people change over time. There is a large turnover in each bracket from one time period to another--for example, in the apparently fascinating top 1% most people are in that bracket for only one year in a decade.
In fairness, these numbers are also self fulfilling. Since most people in the top one percent are there for a specific reason--stock sale, house sale, inheritance event or insurance event--and those events are not repeated, these people will have decline in income almost by definition.
But it only further demonstrates the complexity--and the insincerity--of such generalizations.
A recent Congressional Budget Office report shows that, while the average household income fell 12% between 2007 and 2009, the average for the lower four-fifths fell by 5% or less, while the average income for households in the top fifth fell 18%. For households in the apparently fascinating "top one percent", income fell by 36% in those same years.
This data is different from most that is published which generally show the upper bracket improves. Why? The IRS tracks people, not groups. The CBO numbers are based on IRS statistics of specific individuals and households over time through Social Security numbers, not the generalized numbers from each bracket where the people change over time. There is a large turnover in each bracket from one time period to another--for example, in the apparently fascinating top 1% most people are in that bracket for only one year in a decade.
In fairness, these numbers are also self fulfilling. Since most people in the top one percent are there for a specific reason--stock sale, house sale, inheritance event or insurance event--and those events are not repeated, these people will have decline in income almost by definition.
But it only further demonstrates the complexity--and the insincerity--of such generalizations.
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Consequences of Accptance and Despair
Patty Hearst, a less than heavyweight heiress, was kidnapped in 1974 by a
shard wacko revolutionary group called the Symbonese Liberation Army.
She was kept in a closet, raped, and hectored by the loonies in the
group with an almost incoherent political philosophy. Yet, as time went
by, she became a willing participant in their crazy activities including
a bank robbery. She became the poster child for the Stockholm Syndrome.
Stockholm Syndrome is named after a bank robbery in 1973 in Stockholm, Sweden where several bank employees were held hostage in a bank vault for six days. The captives rejected assistance while captive and defended the captors after they were freed. This psychological notion was expanded to include "traumatic bonding" where strong emotional ties develop between two people where one abuses or intimidates the other. It is quite reminiscent of the Aztec War of the Flowers where Aztec warriors hunted potential prisoners for sacrifice during battle and the captor and captive developed a parent-child relationship; even the Conquistador prisoners did. The FBI's Hostage Database shows about 27% of victims show evidence of the Syndrome.
Apparently all that is required is a mutually acknowledged huge imbalance of power.
The willing submission of reasonable people to degrading and possibly fatal circumstances controlled by self-absorbed and possibly stupid people who have no regard for their victims in this country is called "an election."
Stockholm Syndrome is named after a bank robbery in 1973 in Stockholm, Sweden where several bank employees were held hostage in a bank vault for six days. The captives rejected assistance while captive and defended the captors after they were freed. This psychological notion was expanded to include "traumatic bonding" where strong emotional ties develop between two people where one abuses or intimidates the other. It is quite reminiscent of the Aztec War of the Flowers where Aztec warriors hunted potential prisoners for sacrifice during battle and the captor and captive developed a parent-child relationship; even the Conquistador prisoners did. The FBI's Hostage Database shows about 27% of victims show evidence of the Syndrome.
Apparently all that is required is a mutually acknowledged huge imbalance of power.
The willing submission of reasonable people to degrading and possibly fatal circumstances controlled by self-absorbed and possibly stupid people who have no regard for their victims in this country is called "an election."
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Diagnosis of Life in "Three Sisters"
The Pittsburgh Irish and Classical Theater has done a nice production of Chekhov's bittersweet "Three Sisters."
The play is about three sisters of the Prosorov family living in a provincial town in Russia. It opens on a day of anniversaries; it is the first anniversary of the death of the girls' father and is the twentieth birthday of the youngest sister, Irina. It is a day of sadness and joy--a day of happiness stained sad--and it will always be so for the girls. It serves as a good symbol for the play: Sorrow or its potential is always present and, if sorrow becomes part of anything, it becomes its essence. And life has sorrow.
Life in the town has become stifling for the well bred and well educated sisters. Olga, the oldest, feels her life slipping by and gets no reward in her job as a teacher, Masha is trapped in an unrewarding marriage and Irina has all the worried hope of youth. The talented and well loved brother, Andrey, is in the process of disappointing everyone and soon will bring an argumentative woman into the house as his wife.
They all feel the solution to their problems is to escape the town and return to Moscow.
The four act play covers several years of the girls' lives as they search for meaning and happiness, sometimes in work, sometimes in the men from the town's military battery, with the hope of Moscow in the background. The men have their own sadness but the girls, initially at least, provide them with some happiness, and become the men's own private Moscow, but their lives become entangled in the sadness of the sisters and soon become their own misfortunes. The men counter the girls' restless unhappiness with metaphysics, the philosophy of work, meliorism but, interestingly for Russia, never religion. Strangely the men are uniformly eager to deceive themselves and to rationalize while, except for Moscow, the women's emotional eye never blinks. It is no wonder that men are steadfast warriors and women frantic oracles.
Chekhov called this play a "drama", distinct from a tragedy or comedy. True to the definition of art as "a mirror held up to life", it is more a sample of life, a biopsy, than an effort at representation, and rises above the provincial world it describes to a broad and insightful vision.
There was an old joke about the play that said if the family would only be given tickets to Moscow in the first act, there would be no play at all. That could not be further from the truth. This story is about people and life; geography has nothing to do with it other than being just another stage--or another mirage.
The play is about three sisters of the Prosorov family living in a provincial town in Russia. It opens on a day of anniversaries; it is the first anniversary of the death of the girls' father and is the twentieth birthday of the youngest sister, Irina. It is a day of sadness and joy--a day of happiness stained sad--and it will always be so for the girls. It serves as a good symbol for the play: Sorrow or its potential is always present and, if sorrow becomes part of anything, it becomes its essence. And life has sorrow.
Life in the town has become stifling for the well bred and well educated sisters. Olga, the oldest, feels her life slipping by and gets no reward in her job as a teacher, Masha is trapped in an unrewarding marriage and Irina has all the worried hope of youth. The talented and well loved brother, Andrey, is in the process of disappointing everyone and soon will bring an argumentative woman into the house as his wife.
They all feel the solution to their problems is to escape the town and return to Moscow.
The four act play covers several years of the girls' lives as they search for meaning and happiness, sometimes in work, sometimes in the men from the town's military battery, with the hope of Moscow in the background. The men have their own sadness but the girls, initially at least, provide them with some happiness, and become the men's own private Moscow, but their lives become entangled in the sadness of the sisters and soon become their own misfortunes. The men counter the girls' restless unhappiness with metaphysics, the philosophy of work, meliorism but, interestingly for Russia, never religion. Strangely the men are uniformly eager to deceive themselves and to rationalize while, except for Moscow, the women's emotional eye never blinks. It is no wonder that men are steadfast warriors and women frantic oracles.
Chekhov called this play a "drama", distinct from a tragedy or comedy. True to the definition of art as "a mirror held up to life", it is more a sample of life, a biopsy, than an effort at representation, and rises above the provincial world it describes to a broad and insightful vision.
There was an old joke about the play that said if the family would only be given tickets to Moscow in the first act, there would be no play at all. That could not be further from the truth. This story is about people and life; geography has nothing to do with it other than being just another stage--or another mirage.
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Lunatic Fringe Outreach
A rumor has emerged that the Sikh shooter may have accidentally targeted
the Sikhs when he meant to attack Muslims. This is a wonderful example
of turning a mystery into a long-lasting story line. He has a 9-11
tattoo. Muslims were involved in 911. Many Muslims look different. Sikhs
look different. Therefore this lunatic had a lunatic plan that we can
now dissect with innocence--aside from the fact we are making it all up.
This is clearly a failure of the American educational system, a system recently casually described by a foreign observer in a speech as "one of the worst in the world." There may be an opportunity for the government to intervene. Expand the teacher base. Shovel ready classrooms. Education stimulus. Perhaps an educational program to educate wackos to keep their bigotries straight. For the sake of fairness.
This is clearly a failure of the American educational system, a system recently casually described by a foreign observer in a speech as "one of the worst in the world." There may be an opportunity for the government to intervene. Expand the teacher base. Shovel ready classrooms. Education stimulus. Perhaps an educational program to educate wackos to keep their bigotries straight. For the sake of fairness.
Monday, August 6, 2012
True Equality and the Law's Blind Eye
A fellow I know, a mild mannered governmental employee, was struggling
with a new computer program at work when he cried out in anguish, "I
hate this thing. I'm going to kill someone!"
Fire in the hole!
Protocols were initiated, phone calls made, police arrived and he was separated and detained. Intense and harsh questioning and searches ensued. He ended up in an anger management class with a "material threat of violence" history attached to his work record.
This is a fascinating example of an entity mimicking law enforcement. Law enforcement in drag. The hinge is the "zero tolerance" notion; disguised as an effort to make people safe, it is actually a structure to prevent highly paid administrators from having to make decisions. So a child in a school with a water pistol is treated like Dillinger in a bank, a farmer who kills a protected rodent with a plow is treated like Joseph Hazelwood. All shading is removed. Everything merges towards the middle. Everything is representative of everything else.
This approximation of law enforcement and justice can also be a very self-righteous imitation unhinged, as it were, from the intention of law or "zero tolerence." From a recent George Will article: "Nancy Black, 50, a marine biologist who also captains a whale-watching ship, was with some watchers in Monterey Bay in 2005 when a member of her crew whistled at the humpback that had approached her boat, hoping to entice the whale to linger. Back on land, another of her employees called the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to ask if the whistling constituted “harassment” of a marine mammal, which is an “environmental crime.” NOAA requested a video of the episode, which Black sent after editing it slightly to highlight the whistling. NOAA found no harassment — but got her indicted for editing the tape, calling this a “material false statement” to federal investigators, which is a felony."
It goes on..and gets worse. The unfortunate Ms. Black tries to help two killer whales feed off a kill and became libile for other charges of interfering with the feeding of whales. Her home has been raided and her friends told not to talk to her. This started in 2006 and countless dollars and inconvenience and anguish later, still continues.
Fire in the hole!
Protocols were initiated, phone calls made, police arrived and he was separated and detained. Intense and harsh questioning and searches ensued. He ended up in an anger management class with a "material threat of violence" history attached to his work record.
This is a fascinating example of an entity mimicking law enforcement. Law enforcement in drag. The hinge is the "zero tolerance" notion; disguised as an effort to make people safe, it is actually a structure to prevent highly paid administrators from having to make decisions. So a child in a school with a water pistol is treated like Dillinger in a bank, a farmer who kills a protected rodent with a plow is treated like Joseph Hazelwood. All shading is removed. Everything merges towards the middle. Everything is representative of everything else.
This approximation of law enforcement and justice can also be a very self-righteous imitation unhinged, as it were, from the intention of law or "zero tolerence." From a recent George Will article: "Nancy Black, 50, a marine biologist who also captains a whale-watching ship, was with some watchers in Monterey Bay in 2005 when a member of her crew whistled at the humpback that had approached her boat, hoping to entice the whale to linger. Back on land, another of her employees called the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to ask if the whistling constituted “harassment” of a marine mammal, which is an “environmental crime.” NOAA requested a video of the episode, which Black sent after editing it slightly to highlight the whistling. NOAA found no harassment — but got her indicted for editing the tape, calling this a “material false statement” to federal investigators, which is a felony."
It goes on..and gets worse. The unfortunate Ms. Black tries to help two killer whales feed off a kill and became libile for other charges of interfering with the feeding of whales. Her home has been raided and her friends told not to talk to her. This started in 2006 and countless dollars and inconvenience and anguish later, still continues.
Sunday, August 5, 2012
Sunday Sermon 8/5/12
Today's gospel is the beginning of Christ's beautiful "Bread of Life"
exposition, initiated by the "Loaves and Fishes" episode last week. It
is both poetic and pointed; Christ is very direct in what He says is
going on, what His relationship with God is and how the people should
view Him.
Squeezed into the readings is a brilliant line from Paul in his letter to the Ephesians, a line easily overshadowed and a crucial notion in the problems raised by religion then and now: "henceforth you walk not as also the Gentiles walk in the vanity (sometimes written as 'futility') of their mind."
The Gentiles here are not generic non-Jews, they are Greeks. There was always a conflict within the early church among the Jewish apostles as to the appropriateness of including non-Jews in their ministry. But Paul here is creating a more complex distinction. He is not worried about the Gentiles non-Jewish background, he is focusing on the Greeks philosophical tradition. The Greeks famously relied upon the mind as an adequate interface with wisdom. They sought truth through the mind. Paul here is saying that this type of thinking will not solve any of life's basic questions and results in despair when it fails. Only faith in Christ can bridge the gap between the mind and truth.
When Nietzsche declared that God was dead, he did not say this with any of the relish or the glee of the modern atheist. He said this with great anxiety that the result would be emotional and spiritual chaos.
Squeezed into the readings is a brilliant line from Paul in his letter to the Ephesians, a line easily overshadowed and a crucial notion in the problems raised by religion then and now: "henceforth you walk not as also the Gentiles walk in the vanity (sometimes written as 'futility') of their mind."
The Gentiles here are not generic non-Jews, they are Greeks. There was always a conflict within the early church among the Jewish apostles as to the appropriateness of including non-Jews in their ministry. But Paul here is creating a more complex distinction. He is not worried about the Gentiles non-Jewish background, he is focusing on the Greeks philosophical tradition. The Greeks famously relied upon the mind as an adequate interface with wisdom. They sought truth through the mind. Paul here is saying that this type of thinking will not solve any of life's basic questions and results in despair when it fails. Only faith in Christ can bridge the gap between the mind and truth.
When Nietzsche declared that God was dead, he did not say this with any of the relish or the glee of the modern atheist. He said this with great anxiety that the result would be emotional and spiritual chaos.
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Cab Thoughts 8/4/12
So China and Iran do not like Romney. Then....
She didn't build that. The more you think about it, the more reasonable it is that Jordyn Wieber will not be in the Olympic Individual Gymnast finals. Most of her accomplishments are circumstantial. If I had worked as hard, deprived myself as much, devoted all of my life--and, had been a young woman--I could have been in the finals. So, taking all those circumstances into account, Wieber's national championships and world championships are almost random.
In fact, using that logic, it is shamefully discriminatory to have any qualifications at all.
The jobless rate in Spain rose to 24.6 percent from 24.4 percent in the first quarter. It is at its highest since the records were first collected in 1976.
We should delve into the disparities between the philosophies of Chic-fil-A and Chicago more deeply. There is probably a lot to learn here. A Chic-fil-A/Chicago dialectic. Imagine where it leads. One begins to understand the basis of reality shows when one listens to what these morons say. And so sanctimonious.
Boston Mayor Menino is furious at the president of Chic-fil-A for his personal position of favoring traditional marriage. But mindless pandering comes at a price, often consistency. The good mayor gave $1.8 million of municipal land to the new mosque of the Islamic Society of Boston, whose IRS returns listed as one of their seven trustees Yusuf al-Qaradawi who spoke to al-Jazeera about homosexuality: "Some say we should throw them from a high place, some say we should burn them, and so on. There is disagreement ... The important thing is to treat this act as a crime."
It is nice to know there is internal debate in Islam, like how exactly to kill people.
Golden Oldie: http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2010/12/angels-and-pinheads.html
A few nuggets from a new book by David Wessel called "Red Ink..." via the WSJ:
63% of government spending is automatic. Congress can decrease it if it intervenes but, if they do not, it is spent.
In 2011, 20% of the budget went to Defense. The U.S. spends more money on defense than the combined military budgets of the next 17 largest defense spender nations.
25% of federal spending goes to health care. If current policy continues unchanged, in 2021 health care will consume 33% of the budget.
Firing every federal employee would not decrease the deficit by 50%.
46% of American households did not pay income tax in 2011.
In 2011, the government borrowed 36% of the money it spent but had little trouble raising it.
This is a very surprising analysis by Lacy Hunt via Mauldin. Not many people are saying this:
“The Panic of 2008” falls on the Federal Reserve, for making money and credit too easily available, and then “[failing] to use regulatory powers to check the unsound lending and the concomitant buildup of non-productive debt.” (Everybody IS saying that.) And inflation? “The average low in interest rates in these cases occurred almost fourteen years after their respective panic years with an average of 2% … Amazingly, twenty years after each of these panic years, long-term yields were still very depressed, with the average yield of just 2.5%. Thus, all these episodes, including Japan’s, produced highly similar and long lasting interest rate patterns… The relevant point to take from this analysis is that U.S. economic conditions beginning in 2008 were caused by the same conditions that existed in these above mentioned panic years. Therefore, history suggests that over-indebtedness and its resultant slowing of economic activity supports the proposition that a prolonged move to very depressed levels of long-term government yields is probable.”
Thus, he says, no inflation spike.
In the U.S. proved gas reserves in 2010 were up 50% compared to the 2005 number. Or the 1980 number. The U.S. proved gas reserves are 50% higher in 2010 than 30 years ago, despite our use of natural gas over that time. We are finding gas in excess of our use. Sounds like something to take advantage of.
A woman from Saudi Arabia, Wojdan Shaherkani, entered the Olympic judo competition this week. Her opponent was Melissa Mojica, one of the world's top judoka in the heavyweight category. Shaherkani had never participated in an international judo bout before. Ever. She was invited to the Olympics in a symbolic attempt to strike a blow for women's rights in Saudi Arabia. She was the first woman to participate for Saudi Arabia in history.
She lasted 82 seconds but, on the brighter side, she was not hurt. But it was interesting to see the Olympics in a nonathletic light. Here was a woman in competition who had no reason to be there. And Jordyn Wieber was not in the individual gymnastic competition in spite of having every reason to be there.
And so we distort and compromise the nature of things to accommodate our desires.
AAAANNNNNDDDD a graph:
She didn't build that. The more you think about it, the more reasonable it is that Jordyn Wieber will not be in the Olympic Individual Gymnast finals. Most of her accomplishments are circumstantial. If I had worked as hard, deprived myself as much, devoted all of my life--and, had been a young woman--I could have been in the finals. So, taking all those circumstances into account, Wieber's national championships and world championships are almost random.
In fact, using that logic, it is shamefully discriminatory to have any qualifications at all.
The jobless rate in Spain rose to 24.6 percent from 24.4 percent in the first quarter. It is at its highest since the records were first collected in 1976.
We should delve into the disparities between the philosophies of Chic-fil-A and Chicago more deeply. There is probably a lot to learn here. A Chic-fil-A/Chicago dialectic. Imagine where it leads. One begins to understand the basis of reality shows when one listens to what these morons say. And so sanctimonious.
Boston Mayor Menino is furious at the president of Chic-fil-A for his personal position of favoring traditional marriage. But mindless pandering comes at a price, often consistency. The good mayor gave $1.8 million of municipal land to the new mosque of the Islamic Society of Boston, whose IRS returns listed as one of their seven trustees Yusuf al-Qaradawi who spoke to al-Jazeera about homosexuality: "Some say we should throw them from a high place, some say we should burn them, and so on. There is disagreement ... The important thing is to treat this act as a crime."
It is nice to know there is internal debate in Islam, like how exactly to kill people.
Golden Oldie: http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2010/12/angels-and-pinheads.html
A few nuggets from a new book by David Wessel called "Red Ink..." via the WSJ:
63% of government spending is automatic. Congress can decrease it if it intervenes but, if they do not, it is spent.
In 2011, 20% of the budget went to Defense. The U.S. spends more money on defense than the combined military budgets of the next 17 largest defense spender nations.
25% of federal spending goes to health care. If current policy continues unchanged, in 2021 health care will consume 33% of the budget.
Firing every federal employee would not decrease the deficit by 50%.
46% of American households did not pay income tax in 2011.
In 2011, the government borrowed 36% of the money it spent but had little trouble raising it.
This is a very surprising analysis by Lacy Hunt via Mauldin. Not many people are saying this:
“The Panic of 2008” falls on the Federal Reserve, for making money and credit too easily available, and then “[failing] to use regulatory powers to check the unsound lending and the concomitant buildup of non-productive debt.” (Everybody IS saying that.) And inflation? “The average low in interest rates in these cases occurred almost fourteen years after their respective panic years with an average of 2% … Amazingly, twenty years after each of these panic years, long-term yields were still very depressed, with the average yield of just 2.5%. Thus, all these episodes, including Japan’s, produced highly similar and long lasting interest rate patterns… The relevant point to take from this analysis is that U.S. economic conditions beginning in 2008 were caused by the same conditions that existed in these above mentioned panic years. Therefore, history suggests that over-indebtedness and its resultant slowing of economic activity supports the proposition that a prolonged move to very depressed levels of long-term government yields is probable.”
Thus, he says, no inflation spike.
In the U.S. proved gas reserves in 2010 were up 50% compared to the 2005 number. Or the 1980 number. The U.S. proved gas reserves are 50% higher in 2010 than 30 years ago, despite our use of natural gas over that time. We are finding gas in excess of our use. Sounds like something to take advantage of.
A woman from Saudi Arabia, Wojdan Shaherkani, entered the Olympic judo competition this week. Her opponent was Melissa Mojica, one of the world's top judoka in the heavyweight category. Shaherkani had never participated in an international judo bout before. Ever. She was invited to the Olympics in a symbolic attempt to strike a blow for women's rights in Saudi Arabia. She was the first woman to participate for Saudi Arabia in history.
She lasted 82 seconds but, on the brighter side, she was not hurt. But it was interesting to see the Olympics in a nonathletic light. Here was a woman in competition who had no reason to be there. And Jordyn Wieber was not in the individual gymnastic competition in spite of having every reason to be there.
And so we distort and compromise the nature of things to accommodate our desires.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Procrustus in London
A woman from Saudi Arabia, Wojdan Shaherkani, entered the Olympic judo
competition this week. Her opponent was Melissa Mojica, one of the
world's top judoka in the heavyweight category. Shaherkani had never
participated in an
international judo bout before. Ever. She was invited to the Olympics in
a symbolic
attempt to "strike a blow for women's rights in Saudi Arabia." She was the
first woman to participate for Saudi Arabia in history.
She lasted 82 seconds but, on the brighter side, she was not hurt. But it was interesting to see the Olympics in a nonathletic light. Here was a woman in competition who had no reason--other than vague and symbolic ones-- to be there. And Jordyn Wieber was not in the individual gymnastic competition in spite of having every reason to be there.
And so we distort and compromise the nature of things to accommodate our desires. And nothing is what it seems or should be.
She lasted 82 seconds but, on the brighter side, she was not hurt. But it was interesting to see the Olympics in a nonathletic light. Here was a woman in competition who had no reason--other than vague and symbolic ones-- to be there. And Jordyn Wieber was not in the individual gymnastic competition in spite of having every reason to be there.
And so we distort and compromise the nature of things to accommodate our desires. And nothing is what it seems or should be.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Where Only the Very Best Can't Win
Jordyn Wieber, the famous American gymnast, finished fourth in the overall preliminary round behind two Americans and one
Russian.
She has a storied history. She was all-around world champion in 2011. She was national champion two years in a row. She is a powerful, skilled gymnast, likely the best of an American team which might be the best team ever. Yet she will not be in the finals for the individual championship. Why? While fourth over-all, she was third on the American team in the individual preliminaries. And each team can send no more than two representatives to the individual championship finals.
Now this might be good for television ratings, this might make some lesser gymnasts happy to go and perform in the finals, it certainly will make politicians who want to "spread the wealth around" happy.
But it certainly is opposed to every tenet of competitive athletics, which values effort, ability and achievement. And fairness.
She has a storied history. She was all-around world champion in 2011. She was national champion two years in a row. She is a powerful, skilled gymnast, likely the best of an American team which might be the best team ever. Yet she will not be in the finals for the individual championship. Why? While fourth over-all, she was third on the American team in the individual preliminaries. And each team can send no more than two representatives to the individual championship finals.
Now this might be good for television ratings, this might make some lesser gymnasts happy to go and perform in the finals, it certainly will make politicians who want to "spread the wealth around" happy.
But it certainly is opposed to every tenet of competitive athletics, which values effort, ability and achievement. And fairness.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Can the Filter Be Uncreative?
The test:
The following triplet, 2-4-6, follows a rule.
Give a triplet exhibiting the same rule.
The usual answer:
8-10-12, on the assumption the rule is ascending even numbers.
BUT;
There are many answers here. In this particular example, the rule was ascending numbers so the triplet 7-9-11 or, better, 7-8-10, is a more accurate description of the triplet rule.
This is the "confirmation bias" of British psychologist Peter Wason. Rather than science working by falsifying hypotheses as Karl Popper said, we collect evidence in support of an argument.
The history of evaluation also carries a tremendous directional pressure. For example, ulcer disease investigation for years had certain preconceived notions reinforced by the greatest minds in medicine. The idea of infection was never purposely excluded, it was just crowded out by consensus.
Now imagine an organization trying to evaluate something on which its very existence depends. Or a government program. Or a pharmaceutical firm evaluating a drug of its own creation.
Worse, imagine a well meaning scientist with a political bent evaluating data.
The following triplet, 2-4-6, follows a rule.
Give a triplet exhibiting the same rule.
The usual answer:
8-10-12, on the assumption the rule is ascending even numbers.
BUT;
There are many answers here. In this particular example, the rule was ascending numbers so the triplet 7-9-11 or, better, 7-8-10, is a more accurate description of the triplet rule.
This is the "confirmation bias" of British psychologist Peter Wason. Rather than science working by falsifying hypotheses as Karl Popper said, we collect evidence in support of an argument.
The history of evaluation also carries a tremendous directional pressure. For example, ulcer disease investigation for years had certain preconceived notions reinforced by the greatest minds in medicine. The idea of infection was never purposely excluded, it was just crowded out by consensus.
Now imagine an organization trying to evaluate something on which its very existence depends. Or a government program. Or a pharmaceutical firm evaluating a drug of its own creation.
Worse, imagine a well meaning scientist with a political bent evaluating data.
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