Wednesday, April 10, 2019

The Dreaded Bell Curve

Trade war is an insidious term. The metaphor not withstanding, trade isn't war. It's peace.--Jacoby


Mom got in but her landing had to be aborted just before they touched down.
Ned got in.

DraftWire has both Devins (LBs) gone by the time the Steelers draft and they pick...Greedy Williams.

"Integrity" is the practice of being honest and showing a consistent and uncompromising adherence to strong moral and ethical principles and values. It is also the state of being whole and undivided. The word integrity evolved from the Latin adjective "integer," meaning whole or complete. So, is it possible for a man, say a politician, to have qualities that he and his supporters isolate and "compartmentalize," to have "integrity." Isn't the very nature of "integrity" a completeness and wholeness of behavior? Or is it an outmoded quality? Or an outmoded word?

From Huntington's original article describing his thesis of "The Clash of Civilizations:"
“It is my hypothesis that the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.”

Major civilizations according to Huntington, as presented in his 1996 book.
A question might be, has information become so defining and isolating that the idea of "civilizations" has shrunken to the level of sects and shards and the conflicts are now micro-conflicts?

California police arrested an Uber driver who allegedly attempted to burglarize the Airbnb of passengers he’d just dropped off at the airport.

On this day in 1963, the USS Thresher, an atomic submarine, sank in the Atlantic Ocean, killing the entire crew. One hundred and twenty-nine sailors and civilians were lost when the sub unexpectedly plunged to the sea floor 300 miles off the coast of New England.


The world--and this country--seem to have trouble understanding the turmoil of modern politics. That stems from an under-appreciation of the basic demographics; there are some people, and those numbers are larger than people think, who simply are not going to be able to care for themselves in a modern, non-agricultural world. There are some people who are not going to be able to make good decisions--malice aside. Every single individual on the good side of the norm will have an equal, reciprocal negative reflection on the other side of the norm. For every individual two inches taller than the norm there will be an individual two inches shorter than the norm. For every person with an IQ of 110, there will be a reciprocal of 90. There will be as many with 80 as 120. 

This is a reprint of an old blog from 2017: 


                                   The Dreaded Bell Curve




For the normal distribution, the values less than one standard deviation away from the mean account for 68.27% of the set; while two standard deviations from the mean account for 95.45%; and three standard deviations account for 99.73%.


The 68–95–99.7 rule is a shorthand of the values lie within one, two and three standard deviations of the mean, respectively.

Let's take something simple like IQ. The mean IQ is 100. Using the shorthand method, 68 of one hundred test subjects will be within one standard deviation from the mean of 100. That standard deviation is 15 points. So, under the single standard deviation from 100, 34 people will be between 100 and 115 and 34 people will be between 100 and 85.
95 people will be in the group testing from 70 to 130, two standard deviations on either side of the mean. This mean 5 % of those tested will lie outside the two standard deviations, that is 2.5% will be below 70 and 2.5% will be above 130.
It is just great that 2.5 per cent of the population will have IQs higher than 130. But what about the other end of the curve? 2.5% of the population will test below 70? Google says the current population of the U.S. is 321 million. So 2.5% of that means there are 8,025,000 people in the U.S. with IQs less than 70. Expressing their God-given constitutional rights. Buying weapons. Voting.
Should the current problems in the U.S. surprise anybody?
Well, maybe 2.5% are surprised.

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