Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Rumors of Solutions



This Day:1527
Spanish and German troops sack Rome; some consider this the end of the Renaissance. 147 Swiss Guards, including their commander, die fighting the forces of Charles V in order to allow Pope Clement VII to escape into Castel Sant'Angelo.
1863
American Civil War: The Battle of Chancellorsville ends with the defeat of the Army of the Potomac by Confederate troops.
1937
Hindenburg disaster: The German zeppelin Hindenburg catches fire and is destroyed within a minute while attempting to dock at Lakehurst, New Jersey. Thirty-six people are killed.
1996
The body of former CIA director William Colby is found washed up on a riverbank in southern Maryland, eight days after he disappeared.

***

A study from the University of Washington found that soldiers became emotionally attached to robots used to disarm bombs. Many named their robots (usually after a celebrity or current wife or girlfriend) and some painted the robot’s name on its side. A few soldiers even held funerals for their robots when they “died.”

***

Some of the things that happened in the Pirate game on Sunday included Ke’Bryan Hayes getting picked off second base, Matt Gorski getting thrown out at home plate while attempting to score on a ground ball to the third baseman, starting pitcher Andrew Heaney not paying attention to the runners as the Padres executed a double steal, catcher Henry Davis letting a pitch right over home plate clank off his mitt for a passed ball and shortstop Jared Triolo misplaying a routine groundball.
Major League Baseball.

***




Rumors of Solutions

Kent Smetters is the Boettner Chair Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. During the 2024 election, he spoke with Srijana Mitra Das about economic measures offered in the election and the issue no one was addressing. This is culled from an Economic Times article and has the usual undertone of wide-eyed terror, but also a surprising assessment of the potential for solution:


At a broad level, I’d say former President Donald Trump is about cutting taxes, and Vice President Kamala Harris is about increasing spending. However, neither recognises that we are already on an unsustainable path — America’s debt relative to the size of our economy is exploding. As I would put it, our fiscal house is burning down — but both candidates are arguing over the furniture.

Historically, debt crises have never been only about economic pain — they’ve brought very serious social disruptions. Entire forms of government and social cohesion have changed. These impacts must be taken into account, but neither candidate is doing so. In fact, both will increase US debt, shortening the timeline of when the associated problems will materialise.

We have about 20 years left — after that, we will have so much debt, with such large interest payments, that the government won’t be able to cut spending enough to even make those. If they try to increase taxes, the distortions on the economy will be so large that it would be impossible to raise money because the base will contract.

The 20-year window also doesn’t mean we can wait till year 18 or 19 — even today, the cuts or increases in revenue required are substantial.  

Our Penn Wharton Budget Model study has shown three options — one is mostly tax increases. The second is spending cuts.

The third is broad-based new tax revenues, including a carbon tax and a value-added tax (VAT), alongside discretionary spending cuts. We could have sizeable debt reduction while growing the economy. It is a myth that to reduce debt, you need austerity measures that contract the economy. Our study shows a wide range of possibilities that could grow the economy.

***

So, according to him, cutting the debt and growing the economy are not incompatible. What is not compatible is a problem and the lying about the solutions. This debt will be resolved, one way or another, and the resolution spectrum is wide. And a small but intense minority in the culture wants a European solution for its ills: conflict, scapegoating, and revenge.
Clear-headed, flint-eyed honesty created this country and raised its head briefly during the Civil War, but has become less and less an element in public life. Everything from politics to religion is presented on a sales platform, with the assumption of insincerity and manipulation. Democracy, to be successful, must deal with the difficult times as well as the good; success only during good times is not reaffirming.
And most of the time spent falling from a great height is pain-free.
 

No comments: