Alverez vs. Stuart

For years Dick Stuart was a Pirate symbol of erratic, frustrating hitting and fielding. He had tremendous power and it appeared just often enough to resuscitate interest. This is his card for his ten year career (not including Japan):


He averaged per season:     582 AB, 74 R, 154 H, 33HR, 108 RBI, .264 BA, .316 OBP, .489 SLG, .806 OPS

Now Pedro Alvarez:


He is averaging per season: 576 AB, 67 R, 134 H, 30 HR, 92 RBI, .233 BA, .305 OBP, ,437 SLG, .742 OPS

Read 'em and weep.


Towering home runs are a wonderful element in baseball but with Stuart and Alvarez they are comets, brilliant and rare. The question is, can a team build around such erratic talent? More, what can a small market team afford? And Josh Harrison's career BA is .257, his OBP .290. his SLG .387 and his OPS .677--not much of a drop-off for a vastly cheaper replacement.
Simply, the Pirates can not afford such a spotty hitter. In fact, few teams can and those that do all have two words in their names.

Philadelphia's Insight into the Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates had an interesting weekend. They won two of three from the World Champion Phillies.

The third game was curious and worrisome. After being down 4-1, the Pirates worked their way back and, in the bottom of the ninth, were tied 4-4. Their closer, Hanrahan, who throws in the upper nineties easily and who has an excellent slider, finished the top of the ninth. McGehee, who had a pinch-hit double earlier, doubled again. Presley sacrificed his pinch-runner, Harrison, to third. One out and Tabata up next followed by McCutchon and Walker. What is Phillie to do? They have their closer in the bullpen and first and second base open. The next three batters are possibly the only real hitters on the Pirate team.

They do not bring in their closer. The Phillies pitch to Tabata and he strikes out. McCuchon is next. He has two hits on the day and is one of the team's two fastest players so an infield grounder is a potential game-winner. Next up would be Walker, a switch-hitter but slow. Walk McCuchon, right? No. They pitch to him, he goes 3-2 and then lines the ball off the center-field wall. The Pirates win.

The talk shows are thrilled; the Phillies have been out-managed! Baloney. The Phillies played as if the Pirates could not have beaten them with Buicks. They played as if they did not need strategy, as if the Pirates were so bad it would take an act of God for them to win.

The Phillies are a very fine team with serious management. This game looked as if their assessment of Pittsburgh was incredibly negative; in a tight game they could rest their closer and pitch to anyone.

They lost but it doesn't mean they are wrong. If they are right, this could be a long year for Pittsburgh.

The Ultimate Outsource

These are times that make good ideas bad. Hedge funds, derivatives, borrowing on the house—all good ideas at the time—are now stultified.

My good idea was this: Find the typical Pittsburgh sports team and pull its fans closer by having typical Pittsburgh fans actually play for the team. There is, of course, only one prototypical Pittsburgh team: A team that is declining in the rust belt, whose leadership has never demonstrated any quality other than self advancement in almost a generation, whose useful talent always leaves for other cities and whose long-term contracts are with players beyond their prime. Fading glory, terrible leadership, inability to retain young talent, black-hole long-term obligations with non producers: The Pirates are not symbolic of Pittsburgh, they are Pittsburgh.

Now how could the fans participate? They cannot become the executives because it is not their money. Coaching is out because the executives would not approve even if the fans’ random decisions were no worse than the professionals’. They cannot replace the broadcasters because no one would be better than Bob Walk. Position players require some skill like catching, hitting, and throwing. The Pirates can do that, albeit remedially. Starters? A fan could replace Jimmy Anderson but he is gone. Closers? The Pirates are actually strong there.

But there is an area where the fans might be able to improve the Pirates—or at least be a wash and cheaper: Middle relief. The Pirates have no middle relievers. They have declining starters who hope to start again and declining closers who hope to close again. But the city is filled with healthy strong men in their 20s, 30s, and 40s still wearing high school letter jackets that would be able to fill in.

This is my plan. The Pirates hold tryouts looking for men with good health, reasonable arms, and a love of the game. Then they teach the better ones the knuckle ball. They would not have to be strong: Weak arms might actually be an advantage. It is said Hoyt Wilhelm threw his knuckler in the 40-mile-an-hour range. Tim Wakefield throws his in the 60s. Certainly a major league pitching coach could teach a bunch of athletic men one pitch. Then select the best and rotate them to the middle innings. One man an inning or two. It would be a public relations bonanza, a human interest feeding frenzy, and the men would be cheap and, most importantly, expendable. If a 40 year old wore out after a few weeks, just replace him with another knuckleballer from the stable. The newly retired guy would be thrilled with his experience (and the extra bucks). On the off chance that someone showed real ability, trade him immediately for real talent and replace him.

Regrettably the Pirates were ahead of me. This year the Pirates signed two guys who had never played baseball before to be pitchers. They are both from India. In essence, the Pirates thought of my idea independently and, true to their Pittsburgh zeitgeist, outsourced it.