Subsidizing Unproductivity

Boston Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy is reportedly in a Boston hospital after sustaining an upper-body injury during a recent 4 Nations game. McAvoy was admitted to Massachusetts General Hospital, according to the Boston Globe.

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The previously unreported operations of the Department of Special Tasks have included sabotage and a plot to put incendiary devices on planes, Western intelligence officials say. The unit was set up in 2023 in response to Western support for Ukraine and includes veterans of some of Russia’s most recent clandestine operations, reports Bojan Pancevski. The group, known by its Russian acronym SSD, is believed to be behind a host of covert attacks on the West, including the attempted killing of the CEO of a German arms maker. --wsj

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Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a 2.3 percent chance of hitting Earth on 22 December, 2032, making it the biggest extra-terrestrial threat in more than two decades.
Scientists have calculated the impact risk corridor of the space rock stretches eastwards from the Pacific Ocean, over South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Middle East, and into Asia.

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Bill Gates envisions a world where smartphones are supplanted by electronic tattoos. These temporary, electrically conductive tattoos would be applied directly to the skin, effectively turning our bodies into living, breathing communication devices.

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Subsidizing Unproductivity

Vance's speech in Europe raised some uncomfortable ideas. There are more.

An article in The Telegraph has raised questions about England's disability program.  

Expenditure on incapacity and disability benefits for people of working age has risen from £36bn four years ago to £48bn in 2023 to 2024. And the number of new claimants each year has doubled to nearly 500,000.

it’s not got much to do with growing levels of ill health. It’s much more likely because incapacity benefits are quite a lot higher than ordinary unemployment entitlements, and in some cases, rather better than working for a living.

Combine this difference with a medical profession that seems prepared to sign patients off as long-term sick at the drop of a hat and create an immediate incentive for worklessness, especially for those in dead-end, low-paid, physical work who are approaching retirement age.

Young people who have never worked also seem particularly prone to jump aboard the incapacity bandwagon.

What we seem to have, according to the Resolution Foundation analysis, is a country where growing numbers are signed off sick, with the effect being offset by a similar number of previously inactive people, due to childcare or other responsibilities, coming back into the workforce.

In any case, none of this is good for growth and is a long way from the welfare state originally envisaged by its founding fathers.

More, it raises questions about the basic values the West has assumed for years.

Official Poverty

The Telegraph is being taken over by Abu Dhabi. Does that make it a state outlet?

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Levy, the French philosopher, has a film on Ukraine. He says the Ukranians see themselves as "the Sentinals" of the West.

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In the first month, Israel has dropped the equivalent of two nuclear bombs.

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Official Poverty

The official poverty measure doesn’t count most government subsidies, such as Treasury checks beneficiaries receive from refundable tax credits, debit cards loaded with food-stamp allowances, and Medicaid payments as income to the recipients. 

Why would that be?

When all benefits are counted, the percentage of Americans living in poverty falls to only 2.5%. Bruce Meyer of the University of Chicago and James Sullivan of the University of Notre Dame arrived at a similar figure by comparing the actual goods and services consumed by poor households in 1980 with the actual level of consumption of households that were being counted as poor in 2017. They found that only 2.8% of households in 2017 were consuming at or below the actual poverty consumption level. 

These findings also agree with the Census American Housing Survey, which has found that 42% of poor households own homes with an average of three bedrooms, 1½ bathrooms, a garage and a porch or patio. The average poor American family lives in a home larger than the average home of middle-income families in France, Germany and the U.K., and 80% of poor American households have air conditioning.

For those who are healthy, "Poor" in this country no longer means "impoverished;" its meaning is closer to "less than someone else."

De-fund universities!

                                             De-fund universities!

It is curious that the university community believes it beholding only to its ideals. But it is wholly dependent upon the financial support of the average American, people it holds in contempt.

This is from an article by John Strossel on education subsidies.

"De-fund universities!" says Inez Stepman, senior policy analyst at the Independent Women's Forum. "Their entire business model is dependent on the taxpayer."

I push back: "You make it sound like it's all government money. But people pay their own way."

She corrects me: "Without that lifeblood of those federal student loans, very few universities would be able to operate. They are dependent on that federal interference."

They're dependent because they've raised their prices so much. When I went to college, my tuition was $1,950. Now, Princeton charges $53,890.

After government increased subsidies, colleges raised tuition prices at four times the rate of inflation.

They spend the money not just on golf courses and fancy foods. They build new stadiums, first-class swimming pools, media rooms and some even offer students housekeeping.

Why not spend? Colleges know they will get more money from taxpayers. The federal government is now America's largest provider of student aid.

"There is no check on the cost of a college degree," says Stepman. "If students had to walk into Wells Fargo for those loans, Wells Fargo would look at whether or not those loans would be paid back. The federal government doesn't ask any of those questions."

So, money is thrown at students who don't benefit. Today, almost half the students given loans don't graduate in six years.

Instead, says Stepman, they have "$50,000 or $60,000 or $80,000 in debt, without the degree to show for it."

Taxpayers lose. Students lose. The winners are bloated colleges.

Colleges say they deserve every loan and tax break because they make "wiser citizens."

"They're not," says Stepman. "They're making citizens who hate their country."

I push back again: "Most colleges educate rather than indoctrinate."

"I wish that were true," replies Stepman. "I was part of the College Republicans... registering voters. I actually had a professor walk up and spit on me. Another called us the 'Nazi Youth.' These are professors!"

"It's offensive," she adds, "that we take dollars out of mechanics' pockets and put them into the pockets of, largely, middle-class and upper-middle-class students."

It is offensive.

But that's what America does.

UBI

‘‘Sovereign is he who decides on the exception.’--Carl Schmitt

Easy trip in to Boston.
Nice birthday dinner with Liz, Ned and Caroline.
Cold this morning. I like the Custom House. Local industry seems to be bars at might, coffee in the morning.

A pretty far left site I like opened its discussions about the so-called impeachment with this line: "Congress’s job is to make Americans’ lives better." Is that true? Is that concept a basic distinction in how the Left thinks?

As soon as you start making a case against anything, you are making a case, which means you are implicitly committed to reason.
Nagel calls this argument Cartesian, after Descartes’ famous argument that just as the very fact that one is pondering one’s existence shows that one must exist, the very fact that one is examining the validity of reason shows that one is committed to reason. A corollary is that we don’t defend or justify or believe in reason, and we certainly do not, as it is sometimes claimed, have faith in reason. As Nagel puts it, each of these is “one thought too many.” We don’t believe in reason; we use reason.


Blackpink has 31 million YouTube subscribers, more than any other musical group. Who are they? Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHNzOHi8sJs



“Ultimately, man should not ask what the meaning of his life is but rather must recognize that it is he who is asked. In a word, each man is questioned by life; and he can only answer to life by answering for his own life; to life he can only respond by being responsible.”--Frankl



Quantitative analysis suggests that global financial integration alone can account for 34% to 55% of the observed increase in the current top one percent wealth share in the U.S., but indicates a possible reversal in the future.


(from Brian)

The sexuality of politics is not limited to those in power. A patient of mine is a very active conservative and has joined several on-line discussion groups. Yesterday she mentioned she was married and lost 7 followers in 2 minutes.

                           UBI

This is from Andrew Yang's campaign website and is one of the many planks of this platform, Universal Basic Income. I understand the basic argument as to inflation of value here, still, this is looking like an attractive idea to me. What do you think?

Andrew would implement the Freedom Dividend, a universal
basic income of $1,000/month, $12,000 a year, for every
American adult over the age of 18. This is independent of
one’s work status or any other factor. This would enable all Americans to pay their bills, educate themselves, start businesses, be more creative, stay healthy, relocate for
work, spend time with their children, take care of loved
ones, and have a real stake in the future.

Other than regular increases to keep up the cost of living,
any change to the Freedom Dividend would require a constitutional amendment.

It will be illegal to lend or borrow against one’s Dividend.

A Universal Basic Income at this level would permanently
grow the economy by 12.56 to 13.10 percent—or about
$2.5 trillion by 2025—and it would increase the labor force
by 4.5 to 4.7 million people.  Putting money into people’s
hands and keeping it there would be a perpetual boost
and support to job growth and the economy.

Taxes: Taking and Receiving

“Women’s Soccer Team Sues To Overturn Unjust Law Of Supply And Demand”--Babylon Bee


Picked up Ned last night. Looks great.
Brian is still thrilled over the rollout of his company in Wichita.
Went to dinner at Alphabet City with the McGraws and saw Mary Norris, the New Yorker copy editor, speak. A fun time although Ms. Norris was a walking run-on sentence and seemed to think everyone in the room was fascinated with her sex life. We hung around in the book store after as we waited for Ned to get in. The place is a very comfortable space.
I am very disappointed in the online writing class.
 

Nominations for the 71st annual Emmy Awards were announced Tuesday morning , and “Game of Thrones” and “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” dominated nods for TV’s top honors.

The  final season of HBO’s epic fantasy season picked up a leading 32 nominations

The Blackstone Group on Monday announced that it will acquire mobile video ad company Vungle, and settle a wrongful termination lawsuit with company founder Zain Jaffer.
Jaffer was fired as Vungle's CEO in late 2017, after being arrested on a variety of charges that included sexual assault of his own child. He later was completely exonerated, with a judge dismissing all charges at the district attorney's request. Terms of the settlement were not disclosed, although Axios wrote that Jaffer will have all of his shares purchased by Blackstone and will not return to the company.

Michael Bennet, the Colorado Democrat, says that during 40% of his 10 Senate years the government has been run on "continuing resolutions." Congress passes these in order to spare itself the torture of performing its primary function, which is to set national priorities. --Will
 

The pace of new patenting for several categories of climate-friendly technologies has seen a "notable drop-off" since 2012, according to a July 11 analysis from the IEA and OECD. While far wider deployment of existing tech can do a great deal to stem carbon emissions, the steep cuts needed to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals will likely require substantial innovation.  According to IEA, "The precipitous decline in patented innovation since 2011–2012 is a stark warning since there can be a long lag between innovation and cost reductions."

The following is "The Kuznets Curve" that shows the relationship between high economic development and low environment degradation. Needless to say, this is not popular. 



On this day in 1996, shortly after takeoff from New York’s Kennedy International Airport, a TWA Boeing 747 jetliner bound for Paris exploded over the Atlantic Ocean, killing all 230 people aboard. When it was revealed that several U.S. Navy vessels were training in the Long Island area on the night of the blast, some began to suspect that Flight 800 had been accidentally downed by a navy test missile. U.S. authorities ruled out the possibility of an errant missile strike by the navy, but a number of conspiracists, including former White House press secretary Pierre Salinger, supported the theory. The much-criticized Flight 800 investigation ended in late 1998, with investigators concluding that the explosion resulted from mechanical failure, not from a bomb or a missile.

                       Taxes: Taking and Receiving

Here is a major implication of the recent CBO report: Almost the entire burden of all transfer payments made to American households and of all non-financed government spending, falls on just one group of Americans, the top one-fifth of US households by income. The CBO study shows that the bottom three income quintiles representing 60% of US households are “net recipients” (they receive more in transfer payments than they pay in federal taxes), the second-highest income quintile pays just slightly more in federal taxes ($14,800) than it receives in government transfer payments ($14,100), while the top 20% of American “net payer” households finance 100% of the transfer payments to the bottom 60%, as well as almost 100% of the tax revenue collected to run the federal government.
The top twenty percent of income payers pay for almost all the federal government. 

You didn't build that, I did.

Here are the details of that analysis.

Jones

The Jones Act

One of the Impediments to assisting Puerto Rico is the famous Jones Act, originally known as The Merchant Marine Act of 1920.

The Jones Act requires that shipments between two US seaports travel only on US-flagged vessels, built in US shipyards, with American owners and crews.
The original reason was to ensure the US kept a viable commercial shipping industry in case of war. World War I had just ended, so this need was evident at the time. Moreover, the act helped Seattle-based shipping lines pick up Alaskan freight business. (The Jones of the Jones Act was a legislator from Seattle.)

Today, the Jones Act gives a few US companies a legally enforced monopoly on cargo between the mainland US and Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Guam.

A 2012 New York Fed study found it costs twice as much to ship a freight container from the US East Coast to Puerto Rico than to nearby Haiti. And, as always, monopoly shows up in higher prices---for Puerto Ricans and other ports. More, it requires the unnecessary and redundant off-loading of ships bound for Puerto Rico in some intermediate designated rentier port so they can be reloaded by the designated rentier workmen on to the appropriate, designated rentier ship.

Whispers from the Government Drawing Room

Spending on national defense, adjusted for inflation and population, was 42% higher in 2008 than in 1965. Spending for routinely accepted government activity (parks, NASA, embassies, courts, prisons and the like) were 76% higher. Both, in other words, grew far less rapidly than the economy or federal revenues — both of which were about 150% higher in 2008 than in 1965. But welfare-state expenditures were 583% higher. In fact, the welfare state became the core of the federal government, growing from 26% of federal outlays in 1965 to 61% in 2008. When the House Ways and Means Committee drafted Medicare in 1965, it predicted that the hospital-insurance part of the program would cost $9 billion by 1990. The actual figure was $67 billion. In 1987, Congress anticipated that a federal program to assist hospitals serving large numbers of Medicaid patients would require $1 billion by 1992. The final figure: $17 billion. (From IBD)

There are many topics in our "national conversation" that are expressed primarily in body language and innuendo, never in sentences or paragraphs. It is reminiscent of parents talking in front of their children about sex. There are apparently some political facts of life we are simply not mature enough to know. Here is one: The growth of the welfare state will soon outstrip the ability of working people to support it. The transfer of money from productive people to nonproductive people can not be maintained much longer. The recent crisis in the economy was caused by cheap money, terrible business and governmental decisions, irresponsibility and fraud but the crisis itself was unrelated to the basic underlying problem of the welfare state expansion; the artificial expansion of the economy actually may have artificially delayed the crisis. The immediate solution is to take more money from working people and give less money to welfare programs. Then more and less. And more and less. Until...until what?

Corn: Clean and Green; Illogical and Corrupt

The difficulties the political world presents to the rest of us is well explained in the ethanol mess. Under President Bush it was decided to develop ethanol from corn to use to supplement petroleum in gasoline. The logic was that it would increase our independence of foreign petroleum producers and it burns to CO2 and H2O--clean, clean, clean. What it has become is a metaphor for American politics at its illogical, self-contradictory, country damaging worst.

The rumored real reason for its implementation was to ingratiate republicans to clean air advocates and to the Iowa caucus--both of whose disproportionate influence over American elections is legendary. What has resulted is a nightmare, perfectly predictable if one believes that what is subsidized, grows.

In 2006, 16 billion bushels of corn--14% of the corn crop--went to ethanol production; in 2011, 4.3 billion bushels of corn--33%--of the corn crop will go to the production of ethanol. Corn production now takes up 10% of American arable land. Worse, the energy that goes into the production of ethanol from corn is greater than the energy retrieved by burning it. And the ethanol production requires huge H2O volumes.

What the democracy has done is to divert a huge area of the farming industry into a project that does not do what it promises but will deliver on food shortages, higher energy usage, higher pollution and increased dependence on foreign petroleum producers.

Moreover it has created an infrastructure that must defend it, an infrastructure that must encourage it and special interests that want to increase it.

It has institutionalized corruption and stupidity.

Taking the Black 2

A few years ago a woman was conversing about her two children, one was healthy and the other had very poor vision. Of the latter she mused, "He was so close, so close." It was a moment before her meaning was clear: He was not quite impaired enough to qualify for disability. Apparently with just a bit more luck, he could have been officially blind.

Three healthy people I know personally have applied for disability this week. They have diagnoses, they see physicians for them but they are functionally healthy. What they want is to stop working and to have someone else work for them. They want to "take the black" and enter the subsidized life.

A few years ago the religious life was an excellent escape for those who were overwhelmed by the world and its responsibilities. Deep devotion was not required, only a mild personality and an inclination towards doing good. The life was structured, safe--as long as you did not do missionary work--and rewarding. It had the respect of the laity and the assurance of regular meals. The bureaucracy had limited aims so corruption was personal, not on a grand scale. And it provided something special: Community.

Recent numbers show that 8.5 million people are on federal disability rolls, up from 5 million ten years ago. It is gradually becoming a lifestyle, albeit not as rewarding as the old religious life. Like so many of these special subsets in the modern world, it is scheduled to go broke in seven years.

It must be difficult for these government people as they try to replace entities that have evolved over centuries only to atrophy now when they are most needed.

Perhaps faith-based subsidies for monasteries and nunneries?

Taking the Black

The willingness of the government to support financially institutions it feels are "too big to fail" is said to create a "moral hazard;" by indirectly underwriting the errors of these corporations the government may be supporting those very errors. This might encourage people in those corporations to behave recklessly with the knowledge that the government will support them regardless of the outcome. Thus the government might be subsidizing the corporation's errors and indirectly supporting irresponsible behavior.

It is interesting to hear the judgmental "moral" used as it is a rare bird indeed in this culture. But its exclusiveness is more interesting. So many people in this country have "taken the black" and gone into subsidized life. Social security, disability, welfare have all become a secular retreat, like monasteries, away from the work-a-day troubles of the world. Certainly these supports are well intentioned and probably usually well deserved but they are certainly well abused too.

Are they a social moral hazard?