Sunday Sermon 11/27/11

Today was the first day of the new Mass and aside from "consubstantial" in the Creed was not very noteworthy. The music seemed particularly bad but that might have been regional. The gospel was another of the "prepare yourself while the master is away" gospels, not the exciting ones that inspired the book series of the vanishing spouses and workmen, "Left Behind," but the gentle reminder without the foolish virgins or unproductive servants. It does, however, have an unsettling line. The returning master is likened to "a man traveling abroad."

This is an extremely upsetting simile and I'll bet anything Christ delivered it with a smile. The notion of a traveling God, visiting the universe where man is not, invokes a shiver. What would he be doing? Sightseeing? Vacationing? Where would God go? Neptune? Alpha Centauri? What about us?

The Enlightenment, the reliance on reason, created tremendous problems for religion. Regardless of the various times and philosophies, religion relies on faith. The unreasonable, the miraculous, the the very essence of the unknowable was anathema to the Enlightenment and eventually this strictness created a reaction with a new reliance on the individual and the value of his own feelings, Romanticism. A quasi-enlightenment bridge for religion in this time was Deism. Deism was the belief in a God who created existence but did not interfere in life. The classic image was the Watchmaker, used by William Paley. (Paley asks himself what would he think if, while walking in a field, he came upon a stone? Not too much. But if he came upon a watch! What would that complexity imply!) God, as the Watchmaker, made this complex world but did not interfere with it. Once created, the watch ran on its own.

One can see this would be a highly satisfying analogy. Not only could a reasonable man look at the complexity of life and see the logic behind this complex Creator, he could rationalize why he need not hold God responsible when things went wrong. This analogy continues to this day in various guises, most recently in the Intelligent Design movement which argues the cellular information-based genetic system is a modern example of the computer oriented Watchmaker. So each age builds it own mirror.

The "traveling" master is anything but. We are his agents. Where we are, He is.

Cab Thoughts 11/26/11

The word "pharaoh" means "great house". I think it is literal, not meaning "family." Interesting that power is seen in a dwelling, like "White House."

So Michele Bachman shows up on the Jimmy Fallon Show and the band plays the song "Lyin' Ass Bitch" by Fishbone as she walks out. Now this is a comedy show and Bachman should expect the worst but the worst should not include gross disrespect. That the people on the show thought the joke was worth the disrespect--that is a real problem in the culture.

Barry Eisler, a thriller writer, turned down $500,000 to sign with St. Martin's publishing house and has signed with Amazon. This, if it continues, will be a major change in publishing and a blow to the publishers. Imagine Amazon just sending books to electronic readers without a stop at the publishing house. Huge. HUGE! I'm no longer a book collector, I collect antiques.

The Iowa caucus is in 6 weeks and the Republicans still look like the seven dwarfs. Ron Paul has tapped a hardcore angry crowd who will not give up. Gingrich looks to be a reasonable default candidate but he would be symbolic. He cannot win.

Women just hate Gingrich. He got tarred with the divorce papers somehow. The wife initiated the divorce and he brought some stuff to sign while she was in the hospital. The Dems just did a great job in smearing him. (The woman is still alive.) Gingrich is an intelligent guy with diffuse opinions that are not locked in to any passion (a negative with Republicans) but his real defect is that he loves power.

China is 20% of the world's population but the largest energy consumer in the world. Over 50% of the coal consumed is in China.
It is also currently building an incredible 27 nuclear plants.

Amy Chua, her family being my new poster child for the need for redistribution of personal wealth and talent replacing Gwyneth Paltrow, says that richest one percent of the people in the world have the wealth equivalent to 57% of the poor of the world. Wanna bet where those people live?

Is it true that Gingrich is a Catholic convert?

Yesterday was the anniversary of the sinking of The White Ship: http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/White+Ship

JFK: The Movie and the Problem

The Thanksgiving holiday, one of the best holidays and certainly the best secular one, has been spoiled for everyone who was awake and thinking in the mid 60's by the assassination of Jack Kennedy. That promising shift from the generation of Eisenhower to its sons, to youth and its potential, to the charismatic and the virile was just stopped cold by Oswald in Dallas. We defaulted back to the older, ponderous Lyndon Johnson, a true guardian of the Old Guard. That loss--of youth, of hope, of promise, of beauty--has never been overcome and we are reminded of it every Thanksgiving. One only wonders how much of the unrest in the 60's and 70's was a result.

An aspect of the assassination that has dogged its shadow has been the shameless exploitation of the atrocity by writers, politicians and artists. This exploitation, which has become almost a cult, believes--or says it believes--that the assassination was a conspiracy of a number of men, groups or organizations. Every aspect of the event has been picked over, every inconsistency of life magnified, every possibility made a probability. The result is that the event, right before many of our eyes, has been completely recreated and, like an alternative universe, continues without interference with its own laws, experts and history. It is very like those academic musings run wild. "If, instead, you assume that history and archeology was 300 years wrong--or falsified--and Moses was actually alive in the court of Akhenaton...." "If, instead, you assume there is a unexplained and unexplainable driving force in history..." "If, instead, you assume that everyone is possessed at birth by sexual urges towards their immediate family...." It is another victory of the Art of the Plausible.

This is nowhere more revolting than is seen in the movie "JFK" where a seemingly respectable director rewrites the assassination story according to a man whose grasp on the event is dangerously close to psychosis. Oliver Stone writes a story of the assassination through the eyes and the belief set of James Garrison, the District Attorney of New Orleans, who had arrested, charged, indicted and tried a local community figure, Clay Shaw, for involvement in the Kennedy murder. Shaw's arrest was virtually random. There was no evidence against him other than the word of a psychiatric patient who failed a lie detector test and refused to testify. How an American citizen could come under such unreasonable, whimsical charges has never been explained. But Garrison persisted and then Stone followed up after the laughable trial (where the jury took longer to find their seats than to find "not guilty") with a movie inexplicably presenting the Garrison thesis as within the same time zone as reason. Of course, all the facts of the assassination were changed to implicate the innocent, the shooting presented was almost a complete fiction and this all was delivered by Kevin Costner, a credible actor, with certainty and outrage. Anyone who knew anything about the assassination walked from the theater with their collective heads spinning. But many with less of a good grasp left alarmed and resentful. This constant barrage of misinformation has done a lot to undermine this country's credibility and value in the minds of its people who, after all, own and run it.

There are two bad lessons here. The first is there are people and industries in the world who, even in those cultures with the highest of ideals, will do anything, say anything, publish anything to make a buck. If possible they will take the Plausible-made-Art and create an industry of it with historians, academics, and franchises. The second is that they often hide their entrepreneurship in the gowns of Art. How many of our greatest artists have questioned the reliability of memory, the interaction of history and art--even to the point of their blending? So Stone calls Julian Barnes and Cormac McCarthy as witnesses for his defense.

Stone is more Goebbels than John Huston here. He is everything that is wrong with businessmen gone rogue. His product is harmful to the society, toxic to the young and delivered without an ounce of social conscience. The real story about Garrison is how is it possible that Clay Shaw could be treated like a Kafka character in the United States. Another would be a clarifying and cleansing explanation of all the facts and evidence that has been gathered over the years about the murder. This might set the country at ease. But there's probably not much money, or return on arrogance, in this. Instead why not take advantage of the distressed and confused citizens, contribute to their malaise and cash in.

In 1976 the U.S. House of representatives created a commission, The House Select Commission on Assassinations, to investigate all the evidence in the murder again. This time they applied all the newer technologies available as well. Aside from the single and erroneous "fourth bullet thesis" not a single new conclusion was reached. Instead this august deliberative body concluded there was no evidence of a conspiracy--but they believed one existed anyway.

Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving is a tricky word. It means gratitude but it implies more than something to be grateful for, it implies something to be grateful to.

In the fall of 1621 the Plymouth settlers had a celebratory meal with a local Indian tribe as part of a traditional English harvest festival. There are two accounts; no mention is made of a Day of Thanksgiving but they were probably happy; since their arrival they had a 50% mortality. It lasted three days. A Day of Thanksgiving, a day the English would have considered religious, was first held in the new land in 1623 following a needed rainfall. Various days of thanksgiving were celebrated by the country over the years, the first in commemoration of the end of the Revolution by Washington. In 1863, in the middle of the Civil War, Lincoln formally made Thanksgiving an annual event.

It is interesting to see these two men, Washington suspicious of organized religion and Lincoln harder to read, celebrating an official Thanksgiving, but both seem heartfelt, Lincoln's surprisingly so. Washington's is almost a mirror of the mindset of the time. The two proclamations are below.

The Thanksgiving Proclamation
New York, 3 October 1789

By the President of the United States of America: a Proclamation.

Whereas it is the duty of all Nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey his will, to be grateful for his benefits, and humbly to implore his protection and favor--and whereas both Houses of Congress have by their joint Committee requested me `to recommend to the People of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many signal favors of Almighty God especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness.'

Now therefore I do recommend and assign Thursday the 26th day of November next to be devoted by the People of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being, who is the beneficent Author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be -- That we may then all unite in rendering unto him our sincere and humble thanks -- for his kind care and protection of the People of this Country previous to their becoming a Nation--for the signal and manifold mercies, and the favorable interpositions of his Providence which we experienced in the tranquility, union, and plenty, which we have since enjoyed--for the peaceable and rational manner, in which we have been enabled to establish constitutions of government for our safety and happiness, and particularly the national One now lately instituted -- for the civil and religious liberty with which we are blessed; and the means we have of acquiring and diffusing useful knowledge; and in general for all the great and various favors which he hath been pleased to confer upon us.

And also that we may then unite in most humbly offering our prayers and supplications to the great Lord and Ruler of Nations and beseech him to pardon our national and other transgressions--to enable us all, whether in public or private stations, to perform our several and relative duties properly and punctually -- to render our national government a blessing to all the people, by constantly being a Government of wise, just, and constitutional laws, discreetly and faithfully executed and obeyed--to protect and guide all Sovereigns and Nations (especially such as have shewn [sic] kindness onto us) and to bless them with good government, peace, and concord -- To promote the knowledge and practice of true religion and virtue, and the encrease [sic] of science among them and us -- and generally to grant unto all Mankind such a degree of temporal prosperity as he alone knows to be best.

Given under my hand at the City of New-York the third day of October in the year of our Lord 1789.

George Washington

Proclamation Establishing Thanksgiving Day October 3, 1863

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God. In the midst of a civil war of unequalled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union. Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defence [sic], have not arrested the plough, the shuttle, or the ship; the axe had enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years, with large increase of freedom.

No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy.

It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and voice by the whole American people. I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to his tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquility and Union.

In testimony whereof, I have hereunto set my hand, and caused the seal of the United States to be affixed.

Done at the city of Washington, this third day of October, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, and of the independence of the United States the eighty-eighth.

Abraham Lincoln

A Bigger View of the Elephant

In a country where the main political debate centers on 1% of the population, an overall view of the country and the world might seem too much to digest. After all, don't we have our hands full with this 1% argument?

The following contains a number of snippets from the Simon Hunt November/December Economic Report made available by the Mauldin Report. It contains some nice observations about the world economy, its direction and some predictions. Some are quite shocking, like the vulnerability of the Chinese economy and the low likelihood of inflation. There is also the suggestion, not included, that businesses will try to move closer to their homes to manage costs better. As always there is a buyer for every seller, a seller for every buyer and, in general, at least two sides of any argument. These guys may be completely wrong, or half wrong. But it is a concise presentation (perhaps ineptly summarized) and worth the consideration.



The monetary assumption that what was appropriate for Germany in the EU would be appropriate for all of the other members. Herein lay the fault lines. The weak members were able to get a German credit rating which meant that they could borrow to consume goods and finance industry and infrastructure that otherwise would not have been possible. Banks, too, were happy to lend to the governments of these countries because they could take the loans to the ECB and use them as collateral for even more borrowing. A credit frenzy followed which has resulted in today's debt crisis.

The world will suffer from rolling recessions starting either next year or in 2013 lasting to about 2018. Global industrial production should fall by an average of 0.25% a year during this period.
• By then the process of deleveraging should have run its course. The world beyond 2018 will be a different place. World industrial production should average around 3% a year to 2030 compared with an average of 3.3% in the period 1990-2010. Monetary policy will also be quite different; global money supply will match global GDP, not the massive increase experienced since 2008.
• Asset inflation will be virtually non-existent

Each of the three principal pillars of the world economy, the USA, Europe and China, has their own problems, but they boil down to two simple ingredients: debt and demographics
The choice before Germany is then simple but harsh. Either to throw caution to the winds and hope that by printing money the Euro Zone can be saved and stability created or to accept the painful truth that "the Euro is an incoherent nonsense which, in its current form, is doing far more harm than good", as Liam Halligan wrote on Sunday.

The financial fate of Europe's banks and its governments are inextricably linked: because the banks are the primary source of funding for government deficits, government debt represents a large proportion of the asset base of most eurozone banks. Insolvency of one therefore threatens the insolvency of the other
In the end, the only way out is to increase saving." This is part of the process of deleveraging which is likely to take until around 2018 to run its course. These years will be characterized by rolling recessions and deflating asset prices interspaced by short periods of recovery.

Debt is bad for growth. "In the end, the only way out is to increase saving." This is part of the process of deleveraging which is likely to take until around 2018 to run its course. These years will be characterized by rolling recessions and deflating asset prices inter-spaced by short periods of recovery. So, as public debt rises and populations age, growth will fall. As growth falls, debt rises even more, reinforcing the downward impact on an already low growth rate.

"Aging will cause growth in household financial wealth to slow by more than two-thirds across countries we studied (USA, Japan, and W Europe), from 4.5% historically to 1.2% going forward. The slowing growth will cause the level of household financial wealth in 2024 to fall some 36% or by $31 trillion, below what it would have been had the higher historical growth rates persisted."

A surprising development is that the demographic profile of the USA is so much better than that of China. Once the USA puts its financial house in better order, which it will if not willingly, its growth expectations will be better than China's. As we say in Yorkshire, "Think on". For China, based on simple fundamentals, growth has peaked.

Bon Mots and Good Men

"Somebody said he's a stupid man's idea of what a smart man sounds like."

This effort of a man in search of a bon mot is that of Paul Krugman speaking about Newt Gingrich. It is brilliant in many ways. First it is innocent; "someone"--that is "someone else, not me"--said...and I am not responsible for the arrogant, complex slur but you can spread it if you like. Second, it diminishes Gingrich (who could use some diminishing) indirectly; he is not being called stupid, only attractive to stupid people. Third, it diminishes his supporters, who clearly are not going to make a competent decision in the voting booth, and raises the question in the minds of anyone who finds Gingrich attractive of their willingness to be stupid by association.

As the Republicans search for a candidate, the media treats it like "wack-a-mole"; anyone who rises as a frontrunner draws their fire. Bachman, who sounds like an interesting woman, is attacked and is gone. Cain's accusers are nowhere to be found after a evanescent life of a mayfly. Paul is a constant crank. Romney, alone, seems not worth their time.

This cruel behavior is not limited to a party but it is limiting to the democracy. Some hard decisions are coming down the road at us and will be made by either us or circumstances. I hope we would do a better job than circumstances. But arrogance and soundbites are not a fertile field for solutions. The Supercommittee microcosm should be an alarming wake-up call for anyone who has continued sanguine about our political process. Crisis management should be a last resort, not a routine policy.

Obama and his supporters have had some opportunity here and the results are not stellar. At least a consideration of some alternative ideas seems reasonable.

But the Hatfields and the McCoys never look to the future.

The Sense of an Ending: A Review

"I hate the way the British have of not being serious about being serious," says Adrian, a young man in Julian Barnes' Man Booker Prize winning novel "The Sense of an Ending." Barnes takes his character's criticism to heart and writes a serious story about time, history, memory and life. It is structured as an older man's reflections on his life with many quotable observations and a mystery.

The narrator is Tony, a comfortable retiree who has lived an unchallenged life of few successes and well tolerated failures. We first meet him in prep school with two friends and a newcomer, Adrian, who seems to the narrator as a cut above. They adolescently theorize and debate among themselves and with teachers about history ("History is that certainty produced at the point where the imperfections of memory meet the inadequacies of documentation") and Camus' musings on suicide and the assessed life. The friends separate, go to college, Tony has a restrained affair with Veronica and meets her family then breaks up with her. She takes up with Adrian who commits suicide. Eventually Tony marries Margaret (a woman with "clean edges"), they have a daughter, and the two eventually amicably divorce. Tony retires. Tony learns that Victoria's mother has died and has inexplicably left him money and Adrian's diary. Victoria, in possession of the diary, refuses to release it to him. The second half of the book concerns Tony's efforts to explain this strange bequest and Victoria's position.

The search for answers calls into question all of Tony's life, the events he experienced, his motives and the accuracy of his memories. "When we are young we invent different futures for ourselves, when we are old we invent different pasts for others." What evolves is a coming of age story in retrospect, a counterpoint to what has been revealed before.
In one of Tony's earlier observations he says adolescence was a "holding pen" from which he would be released into the adult life of "passion and change, ecstasy and despair." This never happens for him. He never matures into that intensity. Responsibility becomes safety, maturity cowardice.

Lack of desire, the failure to engage life does not make for a good protagonist and this short, well written story suffers from it. But this story is full of wisdom, not the least is history "isn't the lies of the victors..it's more the memories of the survivors, most of whom are neither victorious or defeated."