As of March 1, 2012, the national debt was 15.57 trillion dollars. But the government has other financial obligations, like the promises it has made.
If the government were a business it would have to include as debt what it had promised in the future, as well. A way of calculating that would be to estimate what amount would have to be put aside into interest bearing accounts and dedicated to those expenses, expenses like federal employee retirement, veterans benefits, social security (excluding social security taxes), and Medicare. If one does that, the debt is 60.9 trillion dollars.
60.9 trillion dollars.
Now, the government is not a business and the comparison is not complete. And the government can print money. The point is that the 60 trillion dollars debt is simply not going to be paid. Anyone looking at this would have to know that the government is meeting at nice restaurants trying to figure out how to avoid paying these debts. Smiling. Looking concerned. Speaking with sincerity. But smilingly, sincerely trying to figure out how to avoid paying what they owe and promised. Promised to us. The citizens. Printing money is one way. But the obvious way is to start with arbitrary disqualifications and then expand them. So some promises are broken and then more and more. Sort of a slow motion betrayal.
If I were a law student in Georgetown, I would think of a more reliable way of contraception.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Book Review: Havana Red by Leonardo Padura
Heat, sweat, cooking, religion, poverty, appearance and disguise, gritty dialogue, gritty sex--these are all hung on the clothesline of Leonardo Padura's novel, Havana Red.
It is a crime novel of sorts, with a tough talking, tough living Havana police lieutenant Mario Conde, aka "The Count", ostensibly about a murder of a local mystic homosexual masquerading as a transvestite. (Not for nothing the original name of the book was "Masks.") This is the third of four novels about The Count, strangely only the third and fourth released in English. But, like so many modern detective stories, it has higher aims. Its larger theme is art, deception, bigotry and, most importantly, Cuba itself.
The Count is introduce on suspension from his job because of an unexplained dust-up with a fellow cop. Alexis Arayan, a local homosexual with important family connections is found murdered in transvestite garb and The Count is called upon to investigate. The crime leads him through the the underworld of homosexuals, the political discarded, and the creative arts (the Count has some aspirations--historically, at least--as a writer). He meets Alberto Marques, an unashamed copy of Virgilio Pinera, and he gradually overcomes his macho distaste for the man and his lifestyle as he becomes drawn into Marques' experiences as a persecuted--and prosecuted--homosexual artist. Marques guides The Count through this world like Virgil (the pun intended, certainly) and teaches The Count about the nuances of the homosexual world and their importance in the murder. In the background is Marques' terrible experiences with the State's intolerance and rigidity, the corruption of the police department now being investigated by a new and more honest State, The Count's close relationship with Skinny who was badly injured in Cuba's military action in Angola, and The Count's suffocating anomie.
While a bit overwritten, this is an enjoyable read. The Count is an acceptable creative Cuban Marlow, the people are interesting and the rather simple crime story subservient to the real star of the show, Havana. The intense, earthy yearning of Havana and its people is wonderful here; the people yearn for each-other, as do Havana and her people. The real struggle is Havana's, her significant and heady substance fighting the distorting weight of poverty, gravity, heat and the inevitable violated social and political promises. And her hopes, that with all her broken earnest pieces a perhaps imaginary lovely past can ever be reassembled.
It is a crime novel of sorts, with a tough talking, tough living Havana police lieutenant Mario Conde, aka "The Count", ostensibly about a murder of a local mystic homosexual masquerading as a transvestite. (Not for nothing the original name of the book was "Masks.") This is the third of four novels about The Count, strangely only the third and fourth released in English. But, like so many modern detective stories, it has higher aims. Its larger theme is art, deception, bigotry and, most importantly, Cuba itself.
The Count is introduce on suspension from his job because of an unexplained dust-up with a fellow cop. Alexis Arayan, a local homosexual with important family connections is found murdered in transvestite garb and The Count is called upon to investigate. The crime leads him through the the underworld of homosexuals, the political discarded, and the creative arts (the Count has some aspirations--historically, at least--as a writer). He meets Alberto Marques, an unashamed copy of Virgilio Pinera, and he gradually overcomes his macho distaste for the man and his lifestyle as he becomes drawn into Marques' experiences as a persecuted--and prosecuted--homosexual artist. Marques guides The Count through this world like Virgil (the pun intended, certainly) and teaches The Count about the nuances of the homosexual world and their importance in the murder. In the background is Marques' terrible experiences with the State's intolerance and rigidity, the corruption of the police department now being investigated by a new and more honest State, The Count's close relationship with Skinny who was badly injured in Cuba's military action in Angola, and The Count's suffocating anomie.
While a bit overwritten, this is an enjoyable read. The Count is an acceptable creative Cuban Marlow, the people are interesting and the rather simple crime story subservient to the real star of the show, Havana. The intense, earthy yearning of Havana and its people is wonderful here; the people yearn for each-other, as do Havana and her people. The real struggle is Havana's, her significant and heady substance fighting the distorting weight of poverty, gravity, heat and the inevitable violated social and political promises. And her hopes, that with all her broken earnest pieces a perhaps imaginary lovely past can ever be reassembled.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Natural Gas and Hot Air
The March 8, 2012 issue of NYT Book Review has a review by Bill McKibben on fracking and western Pennsylvania gas drilling. It is remarkably disappointing as it is filled with the usual canards about the influence of Cheney and Halliburton, Imhofe and the global warming cat-fights and now Gasland and its misrepresentations. The problem is that these innuendos and lies are never unmasked, never corrected but blindly stumble on, somehow ingrained in reporting if not the national mind. It is perhaps more significant that there is an upsurge in movies and shows about zombies.
The problem starts with the sources. He relies upon Gasland and the NYT Drilling Down Series that the NYT Public Editor twice rebuked as misleading and inaccurate. He repeats the Drilling Down claim that Pennsylvania's waters were contaminated with radionuclides, this in spite of the studies by the Pa. Dept. of Environmental Protection and almost a score of private bottlers that showed there was no, zero, radionuclide contamination in Pa. streams and drinking water. The Pittsburgh Water and Sewage Authority monthly publishes the same thing.
Then there is the Dunkard Creek fish kill of 2009. According to McKibben, from Gasland, this is attributed to gas drilling discharges despite the conclusion by the EPA, Pa. Fish and Boat Commission and the Pa. Dept. of Environmental Protection that the fish kill was caused by a coal mine discharge which resulted in algae growth that killed the fish. There was even a consent agreement with the coal company, to the tune of $70 million, to build a plant to treat the discharges upstream to prevent future such events.
It is only a matter of time before people start wondering if such inaccuracy is accidental.
The problem starts with the sources. He relies upon Gasland and the NYT Drilling Down Series that the NYT Public Editor twice rebuked as misleading and inaccurate. He repeats the Drilling Down claim that Pennsylvania's waters were contaminated with radionuclides, this in spite of the studies by the Pa. Dept. of Environmental Protection and almost a score of private bottlers that showed there was no, zero, radionuclide contamination in Pa. streams and drinking water. The Pittsburgh Water and Sewage Authority monthly publishes the same thing.
Then there is the Dunkard Creek fish kill of 2009. According to McKibben, from Gasland, this is attributed to gas drilling discharges despite the conclusion by the EPA, Pa. Fish and Boat Commission and the Pa. Dept. of Environmental Protection that the fish kill was caused by a coal mine discharge which resulted in algae growth that killed the fish. There was even a consent agreement with the coal company, to the tune of $70 million, to build a plant to treat the discharges upstream to prevent future such events.
It is only a matter of time before people start wondering if such inaccuracy is accidental.
Monday, March 12, 2012
A Start-Up Company Analysis
HealthSpot is a company that hopes to offer medical services via face-to-face teleconference technology at owned/leased company designed kiosks. It will target limited disease/diagnoses and has some self-contained technology that can be used to transmit information to the physician (heart rate, bp, temp etc.). While the specifics of who will provide the medical services is as yet uncertain, they have engaged a large general medical group in Ohio to participate. It is hoped that such a service will be particularly attractive to pharmacies and the like who might benefit from being an end stage provider for prescriptions that are generated from the medical encounter.
This will provide two needed aspects in the medical system, economy and convenience. Without a doubt, insurers and the government are eager for at least economy. My concern is that neither of the direct participants, physician or patient, are well motivated for either and have not shown to be willing to sacrifice personal, direct interaction in the past. The very nature of a new delivery system with its inevitable new problems and unanticipated difficulties will make the legal obsessed physicians shy. Patients balk at even well qualified PA's and NP's face-to-face; whether or not they would accept a MD at teleconference length is yet to be seen. Another question is the accuracy of the diagnostic/therapeutic encounter. Will trials be necessary?
The management side is very strong with a willingness to spend money on good designs done by companies of high quality. This has attracted adequate funding, at least initial funding, although more rounds are anticipated. IP is adequate but probably not exclusionary.
But the basic question is whether or not such a system can be driven by third party payers and by-pass the patient and physician. If it can, it will be a screaming success. The experience in the ER, which has become a primary care provider for a sizable part of the population at tremendous cost and inconvenience, is not encouraging. On the other hand, something must be done with these costs, regardless of what the public--or the physicians--want. And the government has become increasing willing to dictate changes in spite of objection. They have been willing to shut coal fire plants down regardless of consequence, are willing to raise taxes on investments even if it reduces tax revenues. That type of government is willing to legislate anything and, in that scenario, might create a success out of HealthSpot by fiat.
This will provide two needed aspects in the medical system, economy and convenience. Without a doubt, insurers and the government are eager for at least economy. My concern is that neither of the direct participants, physician or patient, are well motivated for either and have not shown to be willing to sacrifice personal, direct interaction in the past. The very nature of a new delivery system with its inevitable new problems and unanticipated difficulties will make the legal obsessed physicians shy. Patients balk at even well qualified PA's and NP's face-to-face; whether or not they would accept a MD at teleconference length is yet to be seen. Another question is the accuracy of the diagnostic/therapeutic encounter. Will trials be necessary?
The management side is very strong with a willingness to spend money on good designs done by companies of high quality. This has attracted adequate funding, at least initial funding, although more rounds are anticipated. IP is adequate but probably not exclusionary.
But the basic question is whether or not such a system can be driven by third party payers and by-pass the patient and physician. If it can, it will be a screaming success. The experience in the ER, which has become a primary care provider for a sizable part of the population at tremendous cost and inconvenience, is not encouraging. On the other hand, something must be done with these costs, regardless of what the public--or the physicians--want. And the government has become increasing willing to dictate changes in spite of objection. They have been willing to shut coal fire plants down regardless of consequence, are willing to raise taxes on investments even if it reduces tax revenues. That type of government is willing to legislate anything and, in that scenario, might create a success out of HealthSpot by fiat.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Sunday Sermon 3/11/12
In today's readings God gives His commandments in the old testament and allows that He will hold the children of four generation responsible for the sins of the father, Paul, praising God, says "The foolishness of God is wiser than men, God's weakness stronger than man's" and Christ whips the merchants out of the temple. Heredity of sin? God's foolishness? Christ with an edge?
Well, if you are going to have some tough ones, might as well get rid of them all at once.
There are two keys to these problems. First is God's declaration in the first reading that the sabbath is sacred to commemorate God's resting on the seventh day after making the world in six. God was tired? Six days, really? The second is in the earlier part of the Corinthian letter:
"For Christ sent me not to baptize, but to preach the gospel: not with wisdom of words, lest the cross of Christ should be made void. For the preaching of the cross to them that perish, is foolishness; but to them which are saved, that is to us, it is the power of God. For it is written, I will destroy the wisdom of the wise, and will bring nothing to the knowledge of the prudent. Where is the wise? Where is the scribe? Where is the disputer of this world? Has not God made foolish the wisdom of this world? For since, in the wisdom of God, the world through wisdom did not know God, it pleased God through the foolishness of our preaching to save them who believe. For Jews require signs, and Greeks seek after wisdom; but we preach Christ crucified, to the Jews a stumbling block and to the Greeks foolishness. But to those who are called, both Jews and Greeks, Christ the power of God and the wisdom of God. Because the foolishness of God is wiser than men, and the weakness of God is stronger than men."
Making the world in six days, rebuilding the temple in 3 days, Christ with a whip--these are not the province of logic or science. Nor is the Resurrection. Minute analysis of this is "the wisdom of the world", which does not see the truth. It is the larger tapestry that is the essence, not the small word or work which is the focus of literalism and atheism.
It is Christ who is "The Disputer of this world." Logic and science will not let Him fit.
Well, if you are going to have some tough ones, might as well get rid of them all at once.
There are two keys to these problems. First is God's declaration in the first reading that the sabbath is sacred to commemorate God's resting on the seventh day after making the world in six. God was tired? Six days, really? The second is in the earlier part of the Corinthian letter:
"For Christ sent me not to baptize, but to preach the gospel: not with wisdom of words, lest the cross of Christ should be made void. For the preaching of the cross to them that perish, is foolishness; but to them which are saved, that is to us, it is the power of God. For it is written, I will destroy the wisdom of the wise, and will bring nothing to the knowledge of the prudent. Where is the wise? Where is the scribe? Where is the disputer of this world? Has not God made foolish the wisdom of this world? For since, in the wisdom of God, the world through wisdom did not know God, it pleased God through the foolishness of our preaching to save them who believe. For Jews require signs, and Greeks seek after wisdom; but we preach Christ crucified, to the Jews a stumbling block and to the Greeks foolishness. But to those who are called, both Jews and Greeks, Christ the power of God and the wisdom of God. Because the foolishness of God is wiser than men, and the weakness of God is stronger than men."
Making the world in six days, rebuilding the temple in 3 days, Christ with a whip--these are not the province of logic or science. Nor is the Resurrection. Minute analysis of this is "the wisdom of the world", which does not see the truth. It is the larger tapestry that is the essence, not the small word or work which is the focus of literalism and atheism.
It is Christ who is "The Disputer of this world." Logic and science will not let Him fit.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Cab Thoughts 3/10/12
Insurance companies have always assumed a basic return of around seven percent on debt investments to cover their policy obligations. Now, with rates under 1%, what are they going to do? Those promises have been made and must be funded. How? By reaching for yield.
Blind dreamer: The old story of the baby kept isolated from all sound so that the ruler would know that the first word he spoke would be the first language of the world and hence he would know who the first people were. It was interesting about what the blind dream. No imprinted images. But, then again, how would he know?
Warren Buffet has never liked gold as an investment. He gives lots of reasons but there is an interesting translation of his antipathy in the background of his mentor, Benjamin Graham, the great investor. Graham, probably the father of American investing analysis, was very dismissive about gold, its value and investment qualities. Why? When Graham was investing it was illegal to own gold.
So contraception is a basic constitutional right. And people, particularly women, feel alarmed and persecuted by those who offer a constitutional argument against them. At the risk of quoting myself, who threatens a woman more, a guy who just doesn't think the government should deal in these matters or this guy, a beatified Progressive? http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2012/02/holmes-but-not-sherlock-1.html
One wonders about the recent "bounty" question in football and whether it might be introduced as a factor to muddy the concussion waters.
"Hume is among the 10 greatest intellects of mankind. His treatise on human nature, of course, is what he's remembered for the most; Adam Smith said that Hume was the greatest intellect that he ever met, and Smith knew all the great figures of the Enlightenment. At any rate, the point Hume makes in "A Public Credit" is that when a government has mortgaged all of its future revenues, the state lapses into tranquility, languor, and impotence. And he discussed various historical situations. Hume died in 1776, not long after reading Smith's "Wealth of Nations", which was also published in 1776. What we are seeing today is that Hume was correct —and some of the intervening smaller thinkers were not."---Dr. Lacy Hunt on the defects of debt stimulus.
It is generally believed that North America was colonized around 13,000 by tribes crossing the Bering Strait at a time when weather conditions allowed a frozen bridge between Asia and North America. Early toolmaking from this period of the earliest human invaders and human ancestors on the continent has characteristic qualities assigned the name "Clovis" (after finds in Clovis, New Mexico). Researchers have analyzed American spearheads of the period, called Clovis points, and found some inconsistencies. Clovis points match up much closer with Solutrean-style tools - but Solutrean toolmakers lived in France and Spain. This leads to some theories that are closer to sci-fi than academic with strange migrations and improbable boats. This is as close to an academic "make work program" as you can get.
The growing notion of sharing costs with others is just wonderful. The second highest income earner who buys a car: Volt. The average starting salary of a Georgetown Law graduate: $165,000. So we working stiffs buy their cars, pay for their family planning, underwrite their start-ups.
What's next, their cultural events? Oh, wait...
Blind dreamer: The old story of the baby kept isolated from all sound so that the ruler would know that the first word he spoke would be the first language of the world and hence he would know who the first people were. It was interesting about what the blind dream. No imprinted images. But, then again, how would he know?
Warren Buffet has never liked gold as an investment. He gives lots of reasons but there is an interesting translation of his antipathy in the background of his mentor, Benjamin Graham, the great investor. Graham, probably the father of American investing analysis, was very dismissive about gold, its value and investment qualities. Why? When Graham was investing it was illegal to own gold.
So contraception is a basic constitutional right. And people, particularly women, feel alarmed and persecuted by those who offer a constitutional argument against them. At the risk of quoting myself, who threatens a woman more, a guy who just doesn't think the government should deal in these matters or this guy, a beatified Progressive? http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2012/02/holmes-but-not-sherlock-1.html
One wonders about the recent "bounty" question in football and whether it might be introduced as a factor to muddy the concussion waters.
"Hume is among the 10 greatest intellects of mankind. His treatise on human nature, of course, is what he's remembered for the most; Adam Smith said that Hume was the greatest intellect that he ever met, and Smith knew all the great figures of the Enlightenment. At any rate, the point Hume makes in "A Public Credit" is that when a government has mortgaged all of its future revenues, the state lapses into tranquility, languor, and impotence. And he discussed various historical situations. Hume died in 1776, not long after reading Smith's "Wealth of Nations", which was also published in 1776. What we are seeing today is that Hume was correct —and some of the intervening smaller thinkers were not."---Dr. Lacy Hunt on the defects of debt stimulus.
It is generally believed that North America was colonized around 13,000 by tribes crossing the Bering Strait at a time when weather conditions allowed a frozen bridge between Asia and North America. Early toolmaking from this period of the earliest human invaders and human ancestors on the continent has characteristic qualities assigned the name "Clovis" (after finds in Clovis, New Mexico). Researchers have analyzed American spearheads of the period, called Clovis points, and found some inconsistencies. Clovis points match up much closer with Solutrean-style tools - but Solutrean toolmakers lived in France and Spain. This leads to some theories that are closer to sci-fi than academic with strange migrations and improbable boats. This is as close to an academic "make work program" as you can get.
The growing notion of sharing costs with others is just wonderful. The second highest income earner who buys a car: Volt. The average starting salary of a Georgetown Law graduate: $165,000. So we working stiffs buy their cars, pay for their family planning, underwrite their start-ups.
What's next, their cultural events? Oh, wait...
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Timmy Lynch and Memory
One of the defining moments in my young life was Timmy Lynch's injury and his reaction to it. The two of us were playing in a high-school football game. We had a good team and Timmy was our featured running back. Timmy had just carried the ball for about seven yards up the middle. We were waiting in the huddle for him to get back in but he stayed behind, struggling to walk to us with what appeared to be an leg injury. He continued towards us, not so much stepping as throwing his leg forward and then balancing himself on it, and then stepping cautiously forward with his good leg. It was clear to me the leg was broken and he was overcoming tremendous pain in an effort to continue to play. He was eventually carried off the field on a stretcher.
Fortitude. Sacrifice. Devotion. Loyalty. I never forgot it and told my children the story when they were old enough to understand.
One of my children met Timmy this week and told him about how the event had impressed me and how I had passed it on to my children. Timmy said, "Huh. I wonder what he's talking about. I never broke my leg. Never was even hurt playing football." So one of my defining life moments is untrue and the lesson I passed on to my children is untrue. At least the specifics are.
I wonder what else my memory has forged. Or maybe it just fills in the blanks of the template.
Fortitude. Sacrifice. Devotion. Loyalty. I never forgot it and told my children the story when they were old enough to understand.
One of my children met Timmy this week and told him about how the event had impressed me and how I had passed it on to my children. Timmy said, "Huh. I wonder what he's talking about. I never broke my leg. Never was even hurt playing football." So one of my defining life moments is untrue and the lesson I passed on to my children is untrue. At least the specifics are.
I wonder what else my memory has forged. Or maybe it just fills in the blanks of the template.
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