Monday, October 7, 2013

In Science, All Things Are Possible

In a report published online in the Journal for Healthcare Quality, a Johns Hopkins investigative group found that of the 1 million or so robotic surgeries performed since 2000, only 245 complications -- including 71 deaths -- were reported to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Such a report of complications is mandatory when a medical complication occurs. The researchers were surprised at what they felt was a low complication number for a new and complex procedure. They cross-referenced the reports with public records and found several lawsuits involving the procedure that had not been reported to the database.

In one way this is an extremely curious scientific reasoning: The absence of something confirms it.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Sunday Sermon 10/6/13

In the Gospel today the apostles ask Christ to increase their faith. It is unsettling to hear that; after all, Christ is there with them. If they are having trouble, what are we poor slugs 2000 years later supposed to think?

It is reminiscent of Joan of Arc. After years of visions, after following those visions to lead French armies to victory over the English, she denies them while a captive. Why? "I was afraid of the flames," she said simply. She knew they were going to burn her and she was afraid of the flames.

Even those with the best reasons to have faith, waver, so great is the separation between the material and the spiritual.

Saturday, October 5, 2013

cab Thoughts 10/5/13

'I have always felt a certain horror of political economists since I heard one of them say that he feared the famine of 1848 in Ireland would not kill more than a million people, and that would scarcely be enough to do much good."--Benjamin Jowett, Master of Balliol. The economist was Nassau Senior, an adviser to the British government.

The U.S. Federal Reserve needs to speak more clearly and tell the world it will do "whatever it takes" to boost employment Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota told Reuters. The Fed has spoken about interest rates and economic growth but employment is a new item.
I wish they could fix my refrigerator.

"Nothing's been done about that story, it's one big lie, not one word of it is true," says Seymour Hersh, talking about the bin Ladin murder. He has a new book to hype but still it is a lot for him to say. He is the author of "The Dark Side of Camelot" which revealed the very seamy qualities in JFK's White House.

You can always trust people to rise above their political and religious confines when presented with science questions: Prominent Saudi cleric Sheikh Saleh Al-Loheidan claimed that medical studies showed how driving automobiles damaged women’s ovaries and pelvises and, if performed often enough, could result in their children being born with “clinical problems.”

The Norwegians are taking the Dreamliner out of long-haul service until its mechanical problems are fixed.
IKEA has begun selling 3.36 kilowatt solar systems for $9,200 in Britain, with plans to expand this program to other nations.

William the Conqueror, Duke of Normandy, crossed the English Channel from France in 1066 and brought a fighting force considered the fiercest in Europe. People forget these people were Vikings. He had viciously depopulated Normandy of all opposition and would do the same in England. Interestingly, his was a mounted army, armored cavalry, and England's King Harold, the last crowned Anglo Saxon King, fought on foot. No cavalry. No chance.

Over the last several years, the airline industry has averaged $2.10 profit per passenger before taxes.

China consumes about 20% of the world's food yet has (thanks to rapid industrialization) only 9% of its farmland. Interestingly they are starting to rent large farmlands in other countries.

Who is....Tristan and Iseult?

Britain's National Health Service serves a population less than a fifth the size of America's and is the third-largest employer on the planet after the Indian National Railways and the Chinese People's Liberation Army.

Over a century the age of menarche, when menstruation begins, has dropped in the Western world from about seventeen to twelve.

Iran sanctions go both ways. And it appears that our esteemed allies are a bit less committed than the U.S. is. Chris Harmer of the unlikely named The Institute for the Study of War estimates that the Boeing Company alone forfeits a minimum of $25 billion in business every year because of U.S.-imposed sanctions on Iran. That market that is filled by the Russians. Overall, Harmer puts the value to U.S. business of trade lost due to the economic embargo on Iran at approximately $50 billion a year. Iran imports $1.5 billion worth of cars a year from companies like Nissan, Toyota and Peugeot (when they might have been General Motors and Chrysler). Peugeot does an additional half a billion dollars’ worth of commerce with Iran just in car parts.

Golden Oldie:

Emile Zola was an accomplished writer who became the prototype for the intellectual intervening in and influencing social policy. He famously wrote an editorial "J'accuse", published on the front page of the Paris daily "L'Aurora" accusing the high level of the French Army of falsifying evidence to implicate Alfred Dreyfus, an artillery officer, of spying for the Germans despite the fact there was clear evidence that he did not do it, an officer named Esterhazy did, and the reason for Dreyfus' conviction was little more than he was Jewish. He died of carbon monoxide poisoning from interference with a furnace flue and, later, a Parisian roofer claimed on his deathbed to have closed the chimney for political reasons.

A neutron star is about 20 km in diameter and has the mass of about 1.4 times that of our Sun. This means that a neutron star is so dense that on Earth, one teaspoonful would weigh a billion tons, with a similar increase in gravitation and magnetic field.

The strange "shutdown:" the U.S. government shutdown will reduce the National Science Foundation's workforce from 2,000 to about 30. The work of scientists who are not federal employees but are supported by by the NSF will continue, but they won't receive any payments while the shutdown is in effect.

velleity \veh-LEE-uh-tee; vuh-\, noun: The lowest degree of desire; imperfect or incomplete volition; A slight wish or inclination. Velleity is derived from Latin velle, "to will, to be willing, to wish."

"Hybrid Icing":The hybrid-icing system allows the linesman to blow the play dead and call an automatic icing if he determines that the puck will cross the goal line and the defending player is not behind in the race to the end-zone faceoff dots in his defensive zone. The faceoff would go to the far end of the ice as it did with icings called in the previous system the NHL used.

AAAAAANNNNNNNnnnndddddddd......inexplicable stuff from the Middle Ages. Knights in combat with snails:
The Snails Attack (from the Queen Mary Psalter, England, 1310-1320 )
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Friday, October 4, 2013

A Bear in the White House

Economies are fragile. Perception is very important in their behavior. Lack of confidence in a bank or a currency can be fatal, regardless of the underlying circumstances.
That is why this is so unusual. Told in a CNBC interview that Wall Street is "pretty calm" about the government shutdown and political infighting, Obama said: "This time I think Wall Street should be concerned.”
This is unprecedented in memory: A U.S. president talking down the stock market.
No confidence. No encouragement. No optimism. No offer at compromise.
Unheard of.
Incidentally, here is graph, a composite of the last 17 government shutdowns, describing the S and P behavior over time:
Chart of the Day

Thursday, October 3, 2013

An Apple from the Postmodern Tree

In Hindu, "avatar", from the word meaning "descent", refers to the the descent of a god to earth in a human or other form. According to Wiki, it is usually translated into English as "incarnation", but more accurately as "appearance" or "manifestation." Modern computer lingo uses avatar as a substitute for oneself, an alternative personality or a representative of someone on-line or gaming. It is inevitable it would evolve into the academic world.

In 2002 an article appeared in the Dickensian, the magazine of the Dickens Fellowship, describing a meeting between Charles Dickens and Dostoevsky written by Stephanie Harvey. In it, the Russian novelist recalls the meeting in an 1878 letter to his doctor and friend S.D. Yanovksy. This letter and its review in the Dickensian has been written about and commented upon for a while. Most recently it was analyzed by Eric Naiman from the University of California in the Times Literary Supplement.

What emerges is a fraud, sizable and somewhat whimsical. The Dostoevsky letter does not exist.  Nor does Stephanie Harvey, at least as Stephanie Harvey. She is, instead, A.D.  (Arnold) Harvey, a disgruntled would-be male academic, a writer of literature and history, a man disappointed by his inability to get a teaching position, a man who seemingly falls somewhere between a bitter, angry social critic and an avuncular curmudgeon. For the last thirty years he has been Stephanie Harvey, Graham Headley, Trevor McGovern, John Schellenberger, Leo Bellingham (author of "Oxford: The Novel"), Michael Lindsay, Janis Blodnieks and Ludovico Parra--authors, critics, poets--writing, publishing, and often commenting  in scholarly journals and little magazines on one another. (He even, as Trevor McGovern, invented the new concept of "self-plagiarism" by publishing an article which in reality was chapter seven from Harvey's--his-- first book, "Britain in the Early 19th Century", with just the first and last sentence changed.) As Naiman wrote, "..[Harvey created]...a community of scholars who can analyse, supplement and occasionally even ruthlessly criticise each other's work."

The revelation has provoked outrage and angst. Peer review has suffered. Good and honest men humiliated. Resignations offered.

But in a postmodern  world of disbelief, uncertainty, misconception and inexactness no one should be surprised. Or indignant.

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Cab Thoughts 10/2/13

"Years ago my mother used to say to me, she'd say, 'In this world, Elwood, you must be' – she always called me Elwood – 'In this world, Elwood, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant.' Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. You may quote me."--Elwood P. Dowd
 
The Pirates started Liriano in the play-in because he was their consistently best pitcher, their strongest at home and very effective against left handers--the strength of Cincinnati's line-up--despite the fact he had a serious cold. Cincinnati started Queto, their historically best pitcher, despite the fact he had only pitched 12 innings in three months. Why?

Almost 90 elephants have been slaughtered by poachers who poisoned them with industrial cyanide, authorities in Zimbabwe said. Park spokesperson Caroline Washaya-Moyo told NBC News that 87 corpses had been found so far, all with their tusks removed.

The last time the rube Republicans refused to increase the debt ceiling and shut the government down they lost two House seats but gained two in the Senate.

Seth Klarman, the portfolio manager of The Baupost Group, is a very successful practitioner of the value investing strategy. In 1991 he wrote a book explaining the logic and practice of the approach called "The Margin of Safety." While it is viewed as a classic, it has never been reissued. The price has gone up to $2200.00 for a good copy, probably a lot more than the investments he recommended.

The Randolph County school board in North Carolina voted 6 to 1 to retract its ban on Ralph Ellison's Invisible Man at school libraries.

Pope Francis is continuing his theme that the Catholic Church should be "a home for all," a "field hospital" on life's battlefield.
When asked specifically about homosexuality he replied, "Religion has the right to express its opinion in the service of the people, but God in creation has set us free. It is not possible to interfere spiritually in the life of a person." "It is not possible to interfere spiritually in the life of a person" --what exactly does that mean for the Church to say?
A very shallow article in Huffington disparaged this comment as not going far enough. But this is a lot.

British towns that had all its men return from the First World War were known as the "Thankful Villages." There were 52. Towns that also had all its men return from the second war were known as the "Doubly Thankful Villages." There were 14. One was the curiously named Upper Slaughter, a small town which, incidentally, was bombed.

Who is....Alger Hiss?

Just more than half of Americans read at least one book for fun last year, according to an annual survey from the National Endowment for the Arts. More women than men read at least one work of literature, and 64- to 75-year-olds read more than any other age group.

Apparently the victory of Oracle Team USA in the America's Cup, where they had lost two points on a disqualifying penalty and struggled back winning an unheard of eight races in a row to beat the Austrailians who had match point for a week, is one of the greatest comebacks in the history of all sport. Don't know much about sailing, though.

Secretary of State John Kerry plans to sign a controversial U.N. treaty on arms regulation on Wednesday, a senior State Department official told Fox News -- despite warnings from lawmakers that the Senate will not ratify the agreement. So the executive just signs this stuff anyway?

In the data released by College Board, a full 57 percent of graduating seniors aren't ready to transition to college coursework, based on SAT results. The 1498 average total score for all test takers fell short of the 1550 SAT College and Career benchmark, which says students who score at or above that level have a 65 percent change of earning a B- average.

70,000 people attended the World Maker Faire this year in New York.

There are 10,750 hedge funds that control 2.2 Trillion investment dollars. 1600 funds control 99% of that money. 350 control 60%. So there is this hedge fund industry where data is collected and there is this smaller subset where the real numbers are.

Cuba announced Friday that its athletes will be allowed to sign contracts to compete in foreign leagues. Everyone is thinking baseball but their boxers are terrific.

Cassidy Lynn Campbell is a transgender girl in California who won a homecoming queen contest. Since then she has been brutalized and lauded in print by people who think she is either a brave standard bearer or nuts. Some of the stuff is quite vitriolic. After all, this is a child. But I have not seen the obvious question raised: how did this happen? Does this poor girl have a diagnosis that makes treatment reasonable or was this a personal decision that family and the medical profession supported? If the latter, what is the scientific criteria for such interference?

Golden oldie:

David Gilmour, who said in an interview that he doesn't teach books by women or Chinese authors, has been roundly disowned by faculty members at the University of Toronto, where he teaches classes. Free speech has its limits, especially in universities.

In a recent baseball game A. J. Burnett got 23 "swings and misses" on his curveball in the seven innings he pitched. That was the highest number of "swings and misses" on a single type of pitch in a single game for the last five years. I am unsure which is more astonishing: that his curve was so good or that people know and care enough to calculate and store the information.

AAAAAnnnnddddd ..............a picture of a man on the island of Yap with the island stone currency:

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Three Spendthrifts: A Fable

Three men walk into a Dublin bar they found with good reviews on their smart phone. They are told to their dismay that the establishment is a club with membership requirements. The men ask what the membership fee is as they plan to spend about 800 dollars on food and drinks and the money doesn't matter. The maître de says, in that case, he will just say they are members and allows them in, breaking the club rules. Later on in the night the three men are planning to leave. The maître de stops and tells them they should stay because Bono is coming  soon. The men decide to stay but after several hours of more outrageous spending their cards are maxed out and, with no Bono, they leave. In the cab home one looks up "Bono" on his phone and finds U2 is in Australia.

Moral: 1. Eventually the money will matter. 2. Someone who is dishonest to your advantage might as easily be dishonest to your disadvantage.