Butler

 

Vance's wife's bio is worth a look.

***


Butler

“You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity.”--Robert Heinlein. Also known as Hanlon's Razor.

"I think this trying to pin down the precise motive, and how much of it was a mental imbalance or emotional imbalance and how much of it was political, is a bit of a fool's errand. There is a mixture of things they are.

The bottom line I think is that when someone is demonized to the extent Trump was being demonized, you are putting a target on them, and you are increasing the risk they are going to become a target for someone who has a mixture of these factors -- imbalance, some potential political element to it. They become the target.

What was concerning me was that -- and I understand the people on both sides engage in extreme rhetoric, occasionally. But what was bothering me was the thrust of the Democratic narrative for this election year had become that Trump was a mortal danger to our democracy, and if he wins the country is going away. When you take that position, that is an apocalyptic and hysterical position, it is bound to lead to violence, eventually.
...

The sentiments expressed by the president in his remarks just now are very noble and I hope they follow them because if they believe it they will scale back the rhetoric. And what he said about differences in policy, fine, you can attack your adversaries, you can attack their character and their policies, and so forth. But they demonized him -- called him Adolf Hitler, a racist, and a fascist, and so forth it is ridiculous. He is not a threat to democracy they portray. He was a president for four years he carried out excellent policies and it was all done lawfully.

...

That was my perception of what we suddenly saw this increase in attacks, and the decibel level and that vitriol increase, because they did not have an alternative other than this apocalyptic vision they are trying to paint.

And by the way, it is not just about Trump. We have seen the same thing with the Supreme Court, the personal vilification of Supreme Court justices when they disagree with the Supreme Court justices on legal matters."--Bill Barr

Yet, in the analysis following the attempted assassination the event was somehow homogenized with other, general violent events like riots and the crazy attack on Pelosi's husband rather than the very specific thing it was. And the public concerns became things like 'retaliation,' and equal blame, like campus riots being attributable to both anti-semitism and Islamophobia. Even Biden's generic call for unity was tinged with politics.

Insincerity and ambition. We're having trouble looking in the mirror. And we seem to be very willing to sacrifice the common good for our own limited aims.

Factors in Behavior

That the race between Biden and anybody is close is just astonishing.

***

We have always had a smug confidence in the superiority of our economic system over the communists; do they have a similar disregard for our election system?

***


Factors in Behavior

A number of years ago a woman held up my neighborhood bank with a handgun. She was quickly arrested, tried and convicted. The judge--a bathoes character if there ever was one--sentenced her to nursing school.

I have never forgotten this story because it so typifies modern thinking. The judge felt that nurses were, as a group, upstanding, responsible, hardworking citizens. The distinguishing characteristic that separated nurses from others was their nursing degree. Therefore, he reasoned, this criminal would be improved by a nursing degree. You can catch almost anything in a hospital, so why not responsibility and integrity. Indeed perhaps the entire community could be improved if everyone was conferred a nursing degree at birth.

Observations lead to generalizations. Sometimes these are brilliant, like Darwin. Sometimes they are only bigotry, like blacks are lazy or Asian girls can't drive. No observation is worth anything unless it is confirmed, critically. Science is not consensus, it is contentious. It is the battlefield of argument over inference. Information never, ever, implies; we infer. It is only after brutal analysis that information becomes meaningful.

Our current culture does not understand this and we will suffer for its ignorance. We look at home ownership and see that people who are homeowners seem to be better invested in their communities. We ask no further questions; we assume --infer--that home ownership is beneficial in itself. We ignore all the other possibilities--the buyer saved for his down payment so he was disciplined, the buyer did not buy until he had a good and stable job, the buyer had a stable family--all perfectly reasonable circumstances that might contribute to the successful homeowner demographic success. No, the house is the thing. People with college degrees earn more than their fellows without a degree, thus a degree is good for you. (Not a nursing degree this time around.) Do we have any idea if a 120-IQ woman with a degree earns more than a 120-IQ woman without a degree? No, that study has never been done. So we slog on and encourage home ownership and college degrees with only the most superficial evidence.

Poor scientific thinking is more than erroneous, it distracts us from the truth. It misleads us as surely as an intentional, malicious lie. Years ago a seminal study was done on the mortality rates in cities versus farm communities in Great Britain. It showed a significantly higher mortality rate in urban communities. The conclusion was that pollution was very bad for you and plans were initiated to curb smog. Now it might well be that smog is terrible for one's health but the study omitted one point: It did not correct for smoking. When the statistics were later reviewed to eliminate the factor of smoking among the subjects, the difference went away; the survival rate among the two communities was identical. Smog might be bad for you but there was no evidence in this study for that; but there was real evidence that cigarettes were killing people.

We are less insightful than we think. And we are less kind. Basing plans and programs on shoddy thinking traps everyone in the shoddy results. More, it distracts us from the true answers to our questions. One can hope that with time we, as a community, will get better at this thinking but one worries. Shoddy thinking, like bigotry, is easier

Akhenaton

“...though it is disguised by the illusion that a bureaucracy accountable to a majority of voters, and susceptible to the pressure of organized minorities, is not exercising compulsion, it is evident that the more varied and comprehensive the regulation becomes, the more the state becomes a despotic power as against the individual. For the fragment of control over the government which he exercises through his vote is in no effective sense proportionate to the authority exercised over him by the government.”--Lippmann

***

Only 1% of The #Forbes 400 is under 40, the lowest percentage in at least two decades.

***

Overriding all the problems of the current Biden crisis is the obvious unwillingness of the administration to do what is best for the nation.

***

Akhenaton

I have always thought that Obama looked like Amenhotep IV aka Akhenaton. Of course, his statues changed with his reign --and, I think, his religious vision --but the long, long face is pretty consistent. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GD-EG-Caire-Mus%C3%A9e061.JPG

Amenhotep has always been fascinating. He was unknown to history until his temples were uncovered in el-Amarna in the 19th century and gradually quite a story emerged. He was the son of Amenhotep III and assumed the throne--either singly or as co regent for a short time--in about 1350. He seemed to be an interactive, concerned leader as he dealt with the problems of empire, particularly the growth and incursion of the Hittite Empire. But his main contribution to Egypt was his startling attempt to reverse, indeed revolutionize, Egyptian culture. He was Egypt's--perhaps the world's--first monotheist. (This observation was expanded into a whole thesis by Freud who argued in Moses and Monotheism that Moses was an Egyptian and had learned monotheism from the Aten cult). The current god was Amen. He gradually began to dismantle the pantheon of myriad gods and goddesses ruled over by Amen and substituted the single god Aten--really a re-emphasis of the old sun god Ra-- in their place. He also established himself as the intermediary between Aten and the world, thus bypassing the priest caste. This may have been a difficult process against the priests and tradition but perhaps it was a cult of the upper class with the lower classes clinging to the old gods and ways; nonetheless, the images and charms of the older gods seem to have continued unchanged. Amenhotep IV eventually changed his name to Akhenaten, moved the capital to a new site, Amarna, dedicated to the new god, and destroyed and desecrated the old Amen statues and religious sites.

There are so many interesting and unique aspects of this man. He changed art; representations of the pharaoh became softer and more personal. His family became prominent (his first wife was the elegant Nefertiti) and for the first time, statues became less rigid, more life-like . Temples were bright, airy, and filled with representations of family and community scenes.

Things ended badly. He died--or was overthrown--and his family began rule. But soon Horemheb took the throne and all evidence of Akhenaten, his family, and his new god was erased from monuments and records. Indeed Horemheb is recorded as directly following Amenhotep III. Amarna was abandoned; Akhenaten was anathema. Amen and his priests were back.

Cause and Ill-Effect

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen writes that “wages have risen more than prices since 2019” to justify her claim that “our economic position reflects actions the Biden administration has taken over the past three years” (“Bidenomics Is Working for the Middle Class,” op-ed, Dec. 21).

The problem with this claim is that President Biden wasn’t in office a single day in 2019—or in 2020. From the beginning of 2019 to the end of 2020, with Donald Trump still in the White House, real weekly earnings rose by $69 (or 6.2%) and annual median income rose by $3,592. But from the beginning of the Biden administration to the third quarter of 2023, the last quarter for which we have data, real weekly earnings fell by more than $25 (or 2.1%), pushing real annual median income down by $1,306.

***

As of December 2019, the average price of a gram of methamphetamine was $20 to $40.
An 8-ball of meth (3.5 grams) costs between $40 to $60. An ounce of meth (28.3 grams) costs $150 to $300.
Meth can be sold in smaller amounts. A single dose or “bump” of meth may be anywhere from $3 to $20. One dose will last six to eight hours. There are around five doses in a gram.

***


Cause and Ill-Effect

So the recent studies show that an increase in the minimum wage results in the rise in unemployment of minimum wage workers. Subsidizing the mortgages of homeowners results in the rise of bankruptcies and loss of homes. Attempts to pacify countries result in an increase in armed resistance. Programs that underwrite food expenses for hungry children results in an increase in the number of hungry children. The federal support of ethanol as a petroleum fuel substitute results in an increase in petroleum use. Taxes to stimulate jobs growth cause a decrease in gross domestic product. And how's the war on drugs going? Is it doing as well as the war on poverty?

Anybody see a pattern here? Is it true that our interference stimulates the problem we are trying to fix? Or are we seeing the bad administration of a good plan? Either way, it's a heck of a lot worse than Heisenberg interference which, at least, is neutral.

The debate over the proper role of government will never end. A new approach might be: What can government do right? One of the axioms of government seems to be that a program will never go away once started regardless of its effectiveness or success. How about the creation of a bureau that does nothing but analyze the effectiveness of governmental programs. Then we can analyse the role of government in the framework of its capabilities.

Probably wouldn't work

The Mortification of the Flesh

Portugal native, global restaurateur, and chef Antonio “Toni” Pais was a culinary leader and fixture in Pittsburgh for over 40 years.
Pais died on July 7 from complications of Parkinson’s disease. He was 69.

***

74% of the new jobs were government-financed and the construction jobs added were likely also due to government infrastructure programs.

***

A Commentary podcast states that Trump's platform is the least family-conservative platform in the last 50 years.

***

The Mortification of the Flesh

We live in a complex world. Physics describes a world of multiple levels, realities of unseen levels. Like faith-based Leftism, there are truths so real and deep that they cannot be seen--or inferred. The border is secure. The President is in good health. Modern Monetary Theory. Fossil Fuels are successfully being reduced in our progress to zero usage.

From The Guardian

At least 16 of the 33 Latin American and Caribbean countries are involved in about 50 major new oil and gas onshore and offshore projects.

Two new powerhouses, Brazil and Guyana, are expected to register two of the three largest increases in fossil fuel exports by 2035.

According to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), production in Latin America and the Caribbean, which stood at 8m barrels a day (mb/d) in 2022, will grow by 5.8 mb/d by 2028. With increased production in countries such as Brazil and Guyana and new projects all over the region, non-Opec countries are strengthening their foothold in the oil and gas market, playing a crucial role in the shifting geopolitics of oil and gas worldwide.

Even if the world market for fossil fuels starts shrinking by the end of the decade, countries like Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, Ecuador, Mexico, and Suriname are betting on oil as a source of wealth, economic growth, and development – despite its impact on the planet and thanks to the international community’s inertia in “transitioning away” from the oil era.

According to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), production in Latin America and the Caribbean, which stood at 8m barrels a day (mb/d) in 2022, will continue to grow above demand, adding 2 mb/d destined for export by 2030. With increased production across the region, non-Opec countries are strengthening their foothold in the oil and gas market, playing a crucial role in the shifting geopolitics of oil and gas worldwide.

Brazil and Guyana, are expected to register two of the three largest increases in fossil fuel exports by 2035. The region currently accounts for 15% of the world’s oil and gas resources and could increase its share if other historical producers transition away from the oil market, reducing their production and exports.

Brazil, which used to be a modest oil producer until the discovery of its pre-salt deposits in 2006, has become one of the top ten largest oil producers. More than 100 wells have been drilled, with production increasing from 41,000 barrels a day in 2010 to 2.2m a day last year, according to Petrobras.

Petrobras has identified new fields in the “equatorial margin” region, which stretches from Rio Grande do Norte to Amapá. It is also considering the extraction of fossil fuels at the mouth of the Amazon River, which the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (Ibama) and environmental groups such as Greenpeace have spoken out against.

Petrobras plans to invest $6bn from its own budget in exploring new deposits over the next five years, adding another 10bn barrels to its reserves – almost doubling its current capacity.

“You have oil in one place. Guyana is exploring, Suriname is exploring and Trinidad and Tobago are exploring. Will you stop exploring yours?” asked Brazilian Lula at a recent event in Rio de Janeiro organised by the Future Investment Initiative Institute (FII Institute) from Saudi Arabia.

In neighboring Guyana, one of the poorest countries in Latin America, the economy has grown quickly since ExxonMobil discovered oil in 2015. GDP per capita is soaring, growing by 33% in 2023. It is expected to increase by 34% in 2024.
 
Ashni Singh, Guyana’s finance minister, says: “We’re using this period [of oil exploitation] to ensure Guyana’s long-term competitiveness, to secure long-term economic growth, and to invest in the things that matter most to improving the quality of people’s lives – and in particular, the most vulnerable.”

Meanwhile, Suriname has become a “rising star” in the oil market with some big offshore discoveries, including new deposits in Block 58 by TotalEnergies and APA, estimated at 700m barrels, with the potential to transform the economy of South America’s smallest nation.

In addition to oil giants Venezuela, Mexico, Argentina, Ecuador, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados and even the environmentally exemplary Costa Rica have ambitions to expand their oil and gas industry. “We must carefully assess these resources,” said Costa Rica’s president, Rodrigo Chaves. “This is a multibillion-dollar industry. And, as a nation, we should discuss its potential.”

Coal

In the US, 5% of women are blonde. Among female CEOs of Fortune 500 companies, 48% are blonde.

Female senators: 35% blonde 

Blonde privilege.

Just 2.2% of male F500 CEOs are blonde

***

In the US, 14.5% of men are 6ft or taller.
Among CEOs of Fortune 500 companies, 58% are 6ft or taller (4x increase) 3.9% of men are 6’2’’ or taller, among F500 CEOs, 30% are 6’2’’ or taller (7.6x increase)

***


Coal

So, how's the carbon war going?

Demand for coal is set to grow 1.2% and top 8 billion metric tons for the first time ever this year, the IEA said in the latest edition of its annual coal report. This record comes only a year after countries agreed to phase down their use of coal at the United Nations climate conference in Glasgow.

The growth is mostly due to a rapid rise in the prices of natural gas and other fuels, which has forced some countries and regions to turn to coal as a cheaper alternative.

China, which accounts for more than half of global coal consumption, also ramped up its use of coal earlier this year, when the worst heatwave and drought in six decades hit its hydroelectricity production.

Earlier this year, the IEA said CO2 emissions from coal power generation were forecast to grow by more than 200 million tons, or 2%, this year. It said that investment into new fossil fuels infrastructure must stop immediately if the world wants any chance of achieving net zero by 2050.

This means coal will continue to be the global energy system’s largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions by far.

The largest increase in coal demand is expected to be in India at 7%, followed by the European Union at 6% and China at 0.4%.

The Rewards of Progress

Interesting notion about part of Biden's bleary decision-making to stay as president: he is still bitter about being passed over by Obama for Hilary in 2016. He wants his two terms.

***

Adulterate is from Latin adulterare (to corrupt) while adult is from Latin adolescere (to grow up). Adulterate and adultery are related. When you engage in either, you introduce something/someone other to the picture.

***

Don sent a note from the American Thinker by an MD suggesting that Biden has the Lewy Body Dementia version of Parkinsonism.

Diagnosis over time or distance is unfair...but...

***

The Rewards of Progress

Coal consumption, a lynchpin in the faith-based warming/change theology, is rising. Despite all the treaties. Despite all the promises.

The CEO of Huntsman Corp., which has annual revenue of about $8 billion from turning hydrocarbons into products, said the following: 

In 1970, global cooling was supposedly going to disrupt agriculture and other things, the ozone was going to disappear, and acid rain was going to deforest New England. Today, the real U.S. GDP is four times larger than in 1970, but Americans’ activities are emitting about the same number of metric tons of carbon dioxide, even while using much more electricity, and driving and flying many more miles. Why? Better technologies and processes; we learn and adapt.

So where should the world look to save us from the uncertain crisis of global warming? Who can we get to make the sacrifice? Not the tough guys like India and China. How about the rich kid trying to make friends? How about the good old Charlie Brown? How about the USA? Even though they have already made a great effort and the impact of restraining them would hurt them much more than it would help the earth?

Yes.

Now who thinks like that?