Stats

Stats

Googol is the number 1 followed by 100 zeros (10^100). Googolplex is (10^googol or 10^10^100). It’s so big that it’s not even possible to spell it out in long form (1000000000...). We would fill the whole universe before we come even close to writing out the number. It is even bigger than the number of atoms in the universe.

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The UN recently tried to claim more than 175,000 people die from “extreme heat” every year. The real number is closer to 43,000 which the UN later acknowledged very quietly. In fact, a valid study showed that global extreme heat deaths have declined by 13.9% every ten years. 

Another study shows that over the past 30 years, the annual global average of days with heat waves has only increased from 13.4 to 13.7. Cold kills far more, up to four times as many. Heat deaths for youngsters has actually declined by 50% over 30 years, but you would never know that from the data the UN publishes. Malnutrition actually causes many more youngsters to die in Europe and Central Asia than does heat. They also claimed heat deaths of old people increased 85% in 22 years while failing to mention that the population of old people has increased almost the same number.

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In the year to June, 80,200 New Zealand citizens moved abroad, almost double the numbers prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, just 24,900 returned, according to Stats NZ — the country’s official data agency. The net loss of 55,300 citizens (which follows a net loss of 56,500 in the year to April) smashed the previous record of 44,400 in February 2012.

About half are going to Australia.  

Economic factors figure highly in explanations for why so many New Zealanders are moving overseas.
While Australia has so far avoided recession and enjoyed a booming jobs market since the pandemic — in large part due to its dominant mining industry — New Zealand’s central bank warned on Wednesday that its economy is on the brink of its third recession since the beginning of 2022.

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In 2014 fewer than 10,000 migrants crossed the Darian gap. Last year more than 500,000 did. Another surge is expected as a result of Venezuela’s presidential election on July 28th, which was stolen by the ruling autocrat, Nicolás Maduro.

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Results show that from 2003 to 2022, average time spent at home among American adults has risen by one hour and 39 minutes in a typical day. Time at home has risen for every subset of the population and for virtually all activities. 

A conclusion was then leapt to: Preliminary analysis indicates that time at home is associated with lower levels of happiness and less meaning, suggesting the need for enhanced empirical attention to this major shift in the setting of American life.

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'Our results indicate a significant decrease in the difficulty of the SAT math section over time, alongside a decline in students’ math performance. The analysis shows a 71-point drop in the rigor of SAT math from 2008 to 2023, with student performance decreasing by 36 points, resulting in a 107-point total divergence in average student math performance.'

You are never dedicated to something you have complete confidence in. No one is fanatically shouting that the sun is going to rise tomorrow. They know it's going to rise tomorrow. When people are fanatically dedicated to political or religious faiths or any other kinds of dogmas or goals, it's always because these dogmas or goals are in doubt. -Robert M. Pirsig, author and philosopher (6 Sep 1928-2017

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Authorities in Rome have caught a thief after he got distracted mid- break-and-enter and sat down to read a book on The Iliad.

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Following a post-election review, the UK has announced it wil restrict the sale of some weapons to Israel, citing concerns they could be used in violation of international humanitarian law. The ban includes parts for fighter planes, helicopters, and drones.

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Authorities have suspended an Austrian surgeon’s license after allegations emerged she let her 13-year-old daughter help out (quite a bit) during an operation.

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Sheldon Richman on classical liberalism and democracy:

'First, classical liberalism, or what we moderns call libertarianism, is not mainly about believing; it’s about respecting each individual’s person, property, and liberty, and particularly about the government’s respecting those things. It’s also about understanding that freedom leads to social cooperation (the division of labor and trade), peace, and prosperity. Economic theory and history show it.

Second, it’s democracy, not freedom, that requires faith in the absence of evidence. It’s a religion that holds that if we believe hard enough, tens of millions of us going to the temple polls to vote will make the right decisions. No one explains why it should work out that way. And it doesn’t. It’s a faith in magic, and magic is not real.

There is a glitch in the democratic religion: most voters are ignorant. Poll after poll shows that most people know little about the government and the economic process, which the government regulates. They are not only ignorant of basic economic theory, which the evaluation of candidates requires; they are also ignorant of basic indisputable political facts, such as who their so-called representatives are, how they vote, which party controls the Senate and House, and how much the government spends and borrows. How can they vote wisely?'

A Limit of Free Expression

The median estimated elasticity of the socially optimal fertility rate is 2.4 in the US, well above today’s 1.7.

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Asked if Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is doing enough to secure a hostage deal, President Biden—whose appearance at a rally for Kamala Harris in Pittsburgh yesterday was his first public appearance since his convention speech on August 19—answered “No.” 

A senior Israeli source told Axios’s Barak Ravid that “it is puzzling that Biden is pressing Netanyahu, who agreed to the U.S. proposal as early as May 31 and to the U.S. bridging proposal on August 16, and not Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who continues to vehemently refuse any deal.”

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Ireland ranks as the loneliest country in Europe, with almost a fifth of people lonely most or all of the time and nearly two-thirds of people suffer from anxiety or depression, according to EU data. One in seven children live in homes below the poverty line, defined as 60 percent of the median disposable household income.

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A Limit of Free Expression

According to the WashPo, a coordinated attack on anti-Xi demonstrators in San Fransisco last November was planned, developed and carried out by the Chinese Communist Party.

Violence was instigated by pro-CCP activists and carried out by coordinated groups of young men embedded among them, verified videos show. Anti-Xi protesters were attacked with extended flagpoles and chemical spray, punched, kicked, and had fistfuls of sand thrown in their faces.

The Chinese Consulate in Los Angeles paid for supporters’ hotels and meals as an incentive to participate, according to messages shared in WeChat groups reviewed by The Post. At least 35 pro-CCP Chinese diaspora groups showed up to the APEC summit protests — including groups from New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington State.

Videos show at least four Chinese diplomats from the consulates in Los Angeles and San Francisco among the crowd of pro-CCP protesters, sometimes directly interacting with aggressive actors over four days of protests from Nov. 14-17. Some Chinese diaspora group leaders with ties to the Chinese state participated in some of the violence, the videos show.

Chinese diplomats hired at least 60 private security guards to “protect” Chinese diaspora groups gathered to welcome Xi, according to people involved in the arrangement.

This puts a different spin on demonstrations. They can be foreign-sponsored events. And that raises a bigger question for a state: sovereignty.

Trickle Down Wealth

Toby Roberts’s gold medal win in Paris this summer has promoted a surge in interest in climbing in the U.K.

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In 2023, the interest on the national debt was $961 billion.
In federal fiscal years 1962 to 2023, interest on the national debt ranged from 9% to 27% of federal revenues, with a median of 16% and an average of 17%. 

In 2023, the interest on the national debt was 20% of federal revenues.

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Trickle Down Wealth

in 2017, 44 percent of all households had real (inflation-adjusted) incomes that 50 years earlier were earned only by those in the top 20 percent. Real wages increased by 74 percent over the past 50 years and the real median household income nearly doubled.

The improvement in living conditions from subsistence farming in the 17th Century to the current comfort levels across all income groups is obvious.

Income shifting has filled in the gaps.

There seems to be a generality here that is reminiscent of "The Israel Test." The rise of the standard of living in free cultures seems inexorable--but comes at a price. Creativity and production are not as uniform across a culture as their rewards. Free economic cultures produce products with great success but reward producer and consumer differently, the producer with financial reward, the consumer with product and lifestyle. So producers, gaining most of the wealth, none-the-less 'raise all boats.'

Like the symphony and the audience.

The nidus of producers creates general wealth and comfort that diffuse throughout society with creators and producers ending up with a concentration of much wealth--although the general society benefits enormously without much contribution.

In free societies, the general population is thrilled with the culture's success but human nature, particularly envy, sees only disparity, not success, and consequently tears at its supposed wound until the culture is disrupted.

State-Directed Production

No one is more dogmatically insistent on conformity than those who advocate “diversity.”--Sowell

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Nearly $2 billion of American Rescue Plan funds were earmarked for nonexistent county governments in Connecticut and Rhode Island.
$13 million went to a water park in Danville, Ill

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State-Directed Production

Chinese e-commerce giant Temu is the latest warning sign that the world’s second-largest economy could be headed for a doom loop caused by overproduction and Beijing’s industrial planning.

PDD Holdings, the parent company of Temu and Pinduoduo, stunned Wall Street on Monday with weak quarterly results and a warning that intense competition will dampen future earnings.

Shares sank more than 30%, wiping out $50 billion in PDD’s market value and ending founder Colin Huang’s short-lived reign as China’s richest man.

In an analysis written before the earnings report, a top China scholar described an economic landscape that helped explain PDD’s woes.

Other China watchers have blamed the recent stagnation on the real estate meltdown, the country’s aging population, and President Xi Jinping’s tighter grip on economic policy.

But a longer-term driver is Beijing’s decades-old strategy of favoring industrial production over all else, resulting in enormous overcapacity, wrote Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a China scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations, in Foreign Affairs magazine.

“Simply put, in many crucial economic sectors, China is producing far more output than it, or foreign markets, can sustainably absorb,” she added. “As a result, the Chinese economy runs the risk of getting caught in a doom loop of falling prices, insolvency, factory closures, and, ultimately, job losses.”

When profits shrink, companies boost production higher and drop prices lower to generate enough cash to service their debt, Liu explained, adding that government-designated priority sectors also sell products below cost to meet political goals.

This dynamic has been destabilizing the global market with a flood of cheap Chinese exports creating a sharp backlash in the form of stiff tariffs. The domestic market is also marked by overproduction and cutthroat price competition that risks sending the economy into deflation, Liu warned.

“Analogously, although China’s vibrant e-commerce sector might suggest a plethora of consumer choices, in reality, major platforms such as Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Shein compete fiercely to sell the same commoditized products,” she said. “In other words, the illusion of consumer choice masks a domestic market that is overwhelmingly shaped by the state’s industrial priorities rather than by individual preferences.” (from Fortune)

Interestingly, even though vast sums are pouring into AI, the money is going to companies that can expand the most quickly rather than the most innovative ones.

Transfers

Thomas reports that Austin's roof solar panel permit fees are about $4000. $1/sq. ft.

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10% to 27% of non-citizen adults in the U.S. are now illegally registered to vote
The U.S. Census recorded more than 19 million adult non-citizens living in the U.S. during 2022. Given their voter registration rates, this means that about two million to five million of them are illegally registered to vote.

A leap, but...

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Transfers

George Will raises an interesting question: Why does the government, which is substantially staffed by progressives, use — actually, abuse — statistics to suggest the futility of progressive anti-poverty policies?

Will explains why the reality of income inequality in America is unwelcome on both the political left and right. Two slices:

In more than 50 years, government transfer payments (Medicaid, food stamps, etc.) to the average household in the bottom quintile of earners, have risen (in inflation-adjusted dollars) from $9,700 to $45,000 annually. Why, then, does the government, which is substantially staffed by progressives, use — actually, abuse — statistics to suggest the futility of progressive anti-poverty policies? Because this provides a permanent rationale for government growth: perpetual undiminished poverty.

In their 2022 book “The Myth of American Inequality: How Government Biases Policy Debate,” Phil Gramm, Robert Ekelund and John Early demonstrate gross defects in the Census Bureau’s measurement of inequality. By not counting about 88 percent of government transfer payments that enlarge the buying power of lower-income households, and not counting taxes that lower the wealth of higher-income households, government statistics purport to prove that the average income in the top quintile of earners is 16.7 times that of the average in the bottom quintile. Counting transfers and taxes, however, the actual ratio is 4 to 1.

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Economist Pierre Lemieux, writing in the Cato Institute’s journal Regulation, says that in 2017, 44 percent of all households had real (inflation-adjusted) incomes that 50 years earlier were earned only by those in the top 20 percent. “Recall,” he says, “that real wages increased by 74 percent over the past 50 years and the real median household income nearly doubled.”

Amid increased attention to income inequality, the populist right — “national conservatives” — and the progressive left favor “industrial policy” that regressively funnels money upward to corporations. The populist right advocates protectionism (tariffs to shield corporations from competition), and the populist left advocates hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies (for semiconductors, electric vehicles, solar panels, etc.).

In the Grip of a Higher Purpose

A man at the Carnegie Museum in Oakland was injured in a shooting Friday. This apparently was accidental.

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Niners rookie receiver and first round draft pick Ricky Pearsall was shot in the chest during a robbery attempt in San Francisco’s Union Square on Saturday afternoon, the team said in a statement.

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In the Grip of a Higher Purpose

The current election is not a good example of this divergence, but most national debates on government revolve around how much confidence the citizen has--or should have--in the government doing the right thing, regardless of motive. 

Here is a cautionary tale, from a paper by Coyne and Hall.

'In July 1946, 20-year-old Helen Hutchison walked into the Vanderbilt University prenatal clinic in Nashville, Tennessee. Helen found herself pregnant after her husband had returned from combat in World War II. The pregnancy, however, had not been easy. During her visit to the clinic Helen’s doctor handed her a small drink.

“What is it?” she asked.
“It’s a little cocktail,” her doctor replied. “It’ll make you feel better.”
“Well I don’t know if I should be drinking a cocktail,” she responded in jest.
“Drink it all. Drink it all down” (quoted in Welsome 1999, p. 220).

Helen did as her doctor ordered.

Three months later Helen’s daughter, Barbara, was born. Not long after, Helen began to experience some frightening health problems; her face swelled, and her hair fell out. She then experienced two miscarriages, one of which necessitated 16 blood transfusions (Welsome 1999, p. 220). Baby Barbara experienced her own health problems from early childhood. She suffered from extreme fatigue and developed an autoimmune disorder and eventually skin cancer.

…Unbeknownst to Helen, she and her unborn baby had been subjects in a government-funded experiment. She was one of hundreds of women who received an experimental “cocktail” between 1945 and 1947 during one of their prenatal visits, compliments of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), which provided the materials (Wittenstein 2014, p. 39).

The 829 women of the Vanderbilt clinic were but a few of hundreds of thousands of individuals, mostly U.S. citizens, who would be subjected to illegal experiments and suffer human-rights violations during in the post-World War II period at the hands of scientists with funding and materials provided by the U.S. government. These experiments were meant to provide the government with information about the effects of atomic weapons on the human body to advance military capabilities in the name of “national security.”

This paper tells the story of U.S. government activities related to human experimentation after World War II.'

That’s Coyne and Hall writing on Dr. Mengele, USA Style: Lessons from Human Rights Abuses in Post World War II America. 

It’s interesting that these immoral experiments using radiation and also agents of chemical warfare are less well known to the public than say the Tuskegee Study even though they involved far more people.