Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Reinhart, Rogoff and Repudiation by Association

Reinhart and Rogoff recently published a paper that was ignored until it was refuted. Then everyone lost their minds.

The conclusion of the paper was that high levels of debt, particularly 90% of GDP, resulted in slower GDP growth. But a University of Massachusetts paper later argued that some of their formats were in error. Those errors did not reverse their conclusions--the conclusions stood--but errors in the paper did exist.

It was if a nun had been raped; part destroyed, all destroyed. People opposed to the results of the paper attacked the paper, the researchers, their integrity and their credentials. The researchers  received   hate-mail, some blaming them for layoffs of public employees, cutbacks in government services and tax increases.

Economics is a soft science at its very best. But we are not living in times of understanding and acceptance of limits.

Everything is war to the armies of the night.

No comments: