Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Notes

On this day:

1006
Supernova SN 1006, the brightest supernova in recorded history, appeared in the constellation Lupus.
1789
On the balcony of Federal Hall on Wall Street in New York City, George Washington took the oath of office to become the first elected President of the United States.
1803
Louisiana Purchase: The United States purchased the Louisiana Territory from France for $15 million, more than doubling the size of the young nation.
1945: World War II: Führerbunker: Adolf Hitler and Eva Braun committed suicide after being married for one day. Soviet soldiers raise the Victory Banner over the Reichstag building.
1975
Fall of Saigon (or Liberation of Saigon from the Communist perspective): Communist forces gained control of Saigon. The Vietnam War formally ended with the unconditional surrender of South Vietnamese President Duong Van Minh

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Notes

There is a hair-raising account of the captivity and death of a 27-year-old Ukrainian journalist, Viktoriia Roshchyna, by the Russians in The Guardian. 
Suffice it to say this young girl was tortured to death--just in case anyone forgets what's going on. Tortured to death.

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During the battle for Nanking in the Sino-Japanese War, 1937-1945, the U.S. gunboat Panay was attacked and sunk by Japanese warplanes in Chinese waters. The American vessel, neutral in the Chinese-Japanese conflict, was escorting U.S. evacuees and three Standard Oil barges away from Nanking, the war-torn Chinese capital on the Yangtze River. After the Panay was sunk, the Japanese fighters machine-gunned lifeboats and survivors huddling on the shore of the Yangtze. Two U.S. sailors and a civilian passenger were killed and 11 personnel seriously wounded, setting off a major crisis in U.S.-Japanese relations.

Although the Panay‘s position had been reported to the Japanese as required, the neutral vessel was clearly marked, and the day was sunny and clear, the Japanese maintained that the attack was unintentional, and they agreed to pay $2 million in reparations. Two neutral British vessels were also attacked by the Japanese in the final days of the battle for Nanking.

It sounds like The Liberty in the Middle East. These war scenarios do get messy. 
Then, of course, Nanking fell. And things got worse.
Oh, well.

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Sometimes a guy does something inexplicable and succeeds in convincing himself he's smart. Or favored by Fate.

On August 26, 2003, Pirate GM David Littlefield, for no obvious reason,  traded Brian Giles, a great player and a fan favorite, for Jason Bay, a journeyman minor leaguer who had been traded three times in the minors. The entire baseball world held Littlefield in low regard; this confirmed it. 

Bay was drafted by the Expos in Round 22. Bay hoped he might catch on as a fourth outfielder. Littlefield told Bay the Pirates had no third outfielder and he would be the left fielder. He went on to become the Pirates' best player. a good defensive player, a power hitter for average, and the Rookie of the Year. He was an All-Star twice. He had a notable career, cut short by his fearless tendency to run himself into walls and unconsciousness.

One might wonder if this strange accidental success hasn't haunted the Pirates since.

***

In the spring of 1938, unemployment in the building trades averaged more than 40%. Nationwide, one in five workers found themselves still jobless, or jobless yet again.

After the initial crash from a market high of 381 in 1929, the market stayed low for more than a generation, attaining its 1929 level only in the 1950s. Read that again.

Economists, especially economics professors, will readily blame the rough post-crash period on the Federal Reserve’s failure to supply sufficient liquidity – money.

But with a few exceptions, the economics trade neglects the obvious next question. What about the years that followed? Why did recovery not return after five years, or after seven? It was the duration that made the Depression great.

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First, the labor market is no longer polarizing— employment in low- and middle-paid occupations has declined, while highly paid employment has grown. Second, employment growth has stalled in low-paid service jobs. Third, the share of employment in STEM jobs has increased by more than 50 percent since 2010, fueled by growth in software and computer-related occupations. Fourth, retail sales employment has declined by 25 percent in the last decade, likely because of technological improvements in online retail.

That is from a recent NBER working paper by David J. Deming, Christopher Ong, and Lawrence M. Summers.

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As a categorical institution, government can deal with things that we categorically do not want, such as murder, or which we categorically do want, such as protection from military attacks by foreign countries. But decisions and actions requiring more finely detailed knowledge for making nuanced incremental adjustments are often better handled by decision-making processes with more intimate knowledge and involvement – and especially more compelling feedback from the actual consequences of the decisions made.--Sowell

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