During World War II, [Nobel laureate, Ken] Arrow was assigned to a team
of statisticians to produce long-range weather forecasts. After a time, Arrow
and his team determined that their forecasts were not much better than pulling
predictions out of a hat. They wrote their superiors, asking to be relieved of
the duty. They received the following reply, and I quote "The Commanding
General is well aware that the forecasts are no good. However, he needs them
for planning purposes."
– David Stockton, FOMC Minutes Sep 2005
I once attended a
meeting chaired by a man who became the CEO of one of the largest and
most successful insurers in the nation who shouted during a discussion,
"Bad data is better than no data at all!"
No popular discussion of scientific data or opinion should be undertaken without this in mind.
This is a technological society but not a scientific one.
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