Saturday, July 7, 2012

Cab Thoughts 7/7/12

The Carolinas signed Staal for 10 years; my explanation of the trade is now officially out the window. (http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2012/06/staal.html)

Still staggered by Roberts' decision--or lack of one. It sounds very close to "Do not expect us to rescue you from bad law." But I do expect them to rescue us from unconstitutional law.

It is curious that people who are opposed to borders, who favor open immigration and the general decline of nationalism, do not laud the advantage brought to emerging countries by outsourcing.
Anyone pretending that equality is anything other than a spiritual notion need go no further to the Higgs discussion to have their revelation. http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog1.php/2012/07/06/which-boson-do-you-work-for

As many as two out of every three Europeans who came to the colonies were debtors on arrival: they paid for their passage by becoming indentured servants. There was a tremendous labor shortage in the New World and an Englishman named Oglethorpe created Georgia as a place to send debtors from England's overburdened prisons.

Re. Roberts: a very suspicious man said recently that when you see a politician reverse his position--especially when the new position is tortured--think....... blackmail! A mystery writer is born every minute.

Golden Oldie: http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2010/12/mi6-times-one-hundred-and-fifty.html

When the Empress Elizabeth Petrovna (a powerful woman, Empress of Russia and perpetrator of the savage Madame Lapouchin affair) died she was succeeded by her reviled nephew Peter -- "the most imbecile prince that ever ascended the throne of a vast empire" according to the astronomer  Jean-Baptiste Chappe. He was married to the German born princess Sophie--an ambitious woman who learned Russian and converted Orthodox after her marriage. While on a trip to Paris, friends of Sophie murdered Peter and Sophie returned to Russia to become.....Catherine the Great.       

American coal imports are down, consumption is down and exports are way up. This is all a function of the rise of natural gas but there will be no applause from The-Powers-That-Be because, while vastly cleaner, gas is still a carbon and carbon is made by Voldemort.

The historian John K. Fairbank called the opium trade in which American merchants took part 'the most long continued and systematic international crime of modern times.' The opium trade made the high-minded British rejection of slave-trading much easier.  Opium was originally controlled by the British because they controlled the Indian source but, when Turkish opium became available, the Americans joined. (Franklin Roosevelt's family made their fortune there.) Many historians believe the opium trade in China ruined the country, undercutting its culture and collapsing the infrastructure to be controlled by warlords and criminals. If true, Mexico is a serious threat.

There is a new book called "Fooling Houdini" that discusses many popular occult notions. One is palmist and astrologers who are rated by their customers very highly. There are some fascinating studies that show some basic human characteristics. One, generic information is accepted by such customers as very insightful, even when those generic descriptions are random. Secondly, the customer is always  rates the experience more highly if they give more information to the psychic, even if the generic return is unchanged. So people will embrace stock personality sketches as unique portraits. Psychologists have since given a name to this. They call it the Barnum effect, after P. T. Barnum's famous dictum 'We've got something for everyone.'


A fascinating graph on PE ratio over time. The wheel spins. Outliers lose. Nothing is new under the sun. The lower the PE, the harder the times and the more the eventual return. Patience is rewarded. And it's hard to buy and hold and succeed unless there is growth on the "E" side. Everyone forgets the "E" part of the equation. You can not siomply buy and hide in the weeds.



Interesting little stat from the NL All Star Team. Several teams are grousing that their fine starting pitchers have not been chosen. Why? How many closers were picked? 5. That's because the game means something now: the 7th game in the series. Now the game will feature a starter or two for an inning or two...then 98 mile an hour pitchers for an inning.

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