Eight Day of Trip

We left Napthion to one of the obligatory Greek Island stops, Myconos. The winds were high and several cruise ships backed away and did not stop. Mom was a bit unwell in the weather.

This town is a tourist trap disguised as a fishing village. I think travelers hold it in low regard. It is still a pretty town with some nice beaches, the town a crowded group of white single story homes with narrow streets and countless tiny churches. It is a sliver of an island with a calm bay and rough water just thirty yards away on the other side of the island. We had a brunch on the dock side. It was quiet with few ships due to the winds.

There is a group of dancers on the ship, women with dancing shoes accommodated by professional male dancers, a pro woman or two for balance. They are all Asian and their husbands spend their time in the casino while the women dance to the ship's band, a Filipino group that is pretty good when they stay away from Elvis imitation.

The official story--i.e. rumor--is that the ship's capacity is about 1500, there are 480 on board with 580 crew.

Day Seven of Trip

We left Athens and arrived in Napthion. I remember the first time I ever came here out of the northern mountains on a bus on Easter, where the smell and smoke of lamb hung over the town like a fog. Things are a lot less provincial now but the town is no less charming. There are several fortifications, a huge one overlooking the town that kids challenge each-other and themselves to climb, and and an old Turkish fort in the harbor.

The town is alive; people live here, not just entertain four hour visitors.There is a large, wide dock-front with restaurants. There are kids everywhere, small streets with tiny businesses and a bustle. The weather is lovely. The town is quite old--a common stop in Peloponnese where people visit Mycenae and  Epidarvos. Some backpackers as well. We had a lunch on a small square with a soccer game and no graffiti.

Back on board we had another wonderful dinner.

There is a casino on board, mostly empty except for a few Asians. Saw the Penn State-Va game there.

Sunday Sermon 9/30/12

Rugged readings today: The Old Testament about Eldad and Medad prophesying despite being away from the group that was officially inspired, James' savaging of the rich and Christ complex "he who is not against you is for you", His threat against those who corrupt children, and His "if thy eye scandalize thee" speech.
http://steeleydock.blogspot.com/2009/10/offending-hand-and-eye.html  James is particularly harsh and one could easily see this as an economic comment: "You have feasted upon the earth." He must have been a firebrand. But his point is at the end. "You have condemned and put to death the Just One, and he resisted you not." Christ was not of this world and was little invested in it. Those who are His followers must be patient in the world because it will reward them not.

Cab Thoughts 9/29/12

I'm not sure if there could be a dumber way to focus in on candidates than debating. The best presidential debater was Nixon. Maybe competitive juggling would be worse.

Are all jobs valuable? Should a business be supported simply because it employs people? Or are there more important criteria?

I've always liked Damon but his participation in "Promised Land", the stupid anti-fracking movie financed by United Arab Emerites, makes me rethink him. One terrible problem the democracy faces is that there is so much money at stake in America's decisions that American politics and production might be influenced by people who do not have the United States' well being at heart. Natural gas could truly make this country energy independent but, despite the promise of the stimulus, no money was allocated the way of natural gas and now propaganda-type movies (Gasland, Promised Land) are appearing.

It used to be that you were in the labor force if you had been looking for work sometime in the last four years, but that was changed to one year in the latter Clinton years. So if you had been unemployed for more than a year but had not looked for a job in 12 months, you are not counted among the unemployed.

Romney is running as if he thinks he is ahead.

From "Resilience" by Andrew Zolli:

"From its inception as a U.S. military funded project in the 1960s, the Internet was designed to solve a particular problem above all else: to ensure the continuity of communications in the face of disaster. Military leaders at the time were concerned that a preemp­tive nuclear attack by the Soviets on U.S. telecommunications hubs could disrupt the chain of command -- and that their own counterstrike orders might never make it from their command bunkers to their in­tended recipients in the missile silos of North Dakota. So they asked the Internet's original engineers to design a system that could sense and automatically divert traffic around the inevitable equipment failures that would accompany any such attack."

An interesting problem has arisen in what is called the Jobs Act. A sliver of the law allows for the open solicitation for funds by start-ups but, then, requires the start-up to verify the investor is qualified but does not say how. The effect of course will be to discourage any start-up from taking the risk.

Carnegie Mellon University has developed a first-of-its-kind traffic signal control technology that automatically adjusts and coordinates signal timing to accommodate varying traffic volumes and has shown strong promise for reducing commuting times and vehicle emissions during a pilot trial at nine intersections in East Liberty.

For every soldier killed in combat, 25 veterans are dying by suicide.

In 2010 Somali pirates seized 47 vessels. This year they've taken five. The reason seems to be that the ships are beginning to hire armed men to protect them. This is harder than one might think because many countries refuse to allow commercial ships with armed men in their ports.

American wages are currently at a 50-year low as a percentage of GDP.

Toyota just announced the cancellation of it planned launch of a new all-electric minicar, the eQ, and clarified that it only plans to sell 2,600 RAV4 EVs over the next three years. That's not 2,600 a year. It's 2,600 in total.
Question of the day. Who said this and when? "In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close-knit communities, and our faith in God too many of us now tend to wor­ship self-indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we've discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We've learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose."--Jimmy Carter in has famous "Malaise" speech.

Ronnie Cedeno has two more RBI's than Jason Bay.
George P. Shultz, Michael J. Boskin, John F. Cogan, Allan H. Meltzer and John B. Taylor recently authored a piece in the WSJ about the nation's debt, deficit, debt interest and the Fed. This was their conclusion: "Economic theory, empirical studies and historical experience teach that the solutions are the lowest possible tax rates on the broadest base, sufficient to fund the necessary functions of government on balance over the business cycle; sound monetary policy; trade liberalization; spending control and entitlement reform; and regulatory, litigation and education reform."
.
Headline: "Chrysler Yanks Plug-In Hybrid Test Fleet Off Roads, Will Replace Batteries" The reason? Because of explosions.

Bernacki is said to be stimulating the economy in part to create a wealth effect. This year's is the 4th major intervention from the Fed since 2009, each one apparently inflating asset prices without having a definitive impact on the economy other than, most importantly, preventing a lethal debt-deflation spiral. But maybe there is no direct cause and effect, maybe the rise in asset price is the result of inflation. But any wealth effect, if it exists at all, is limited to a small group of people. Last year, the top 20% of households took in 51.1% of all income in 2011, up from 50.2% in 2010 and the highest share since at least 1967, according to the Census Bureau, and US house values remain 30% below their 2006 peak level and now match their 2003 level.

 Research into American death statistics showed a decrease in fatal car accidents with increases in deaths from falls (71%), poisoning (128%) and suicide (15%).  In 2009, 37,000 Americans took their own lives, more deaths than car accidents.
And a graph:

Day Six of Trip

Went to Athens, first to the Acropolis and then to the museum.

There has been a lot of work done on the site, a lot is going on now. Much less access. Another beautiful day. The ruins as always are spectacular. The museum is new and built upon an archeological dig; the first floor is glass and the impact is remarkable.

The Acropolis has been destroyed several times, importantly by the Persians and much later by the Turks (who used it as an ammo storage dump and had it explode.) When the ancient Greeks rebuilt it after the Persians, they held the destroyed part in high regard and buried it carefully on the site so it was all retrievable for the new museum. Some was destroyed by remarkably careless archeologists, some by the same not knowing the friezes were of a single piece and some simply stolen (Lord Elgin.)

Back at the ship we had dinner with the Brits again. I'm sure the contractor has some stories but he won't bite. The wife has gluten intolerance.

The rumor is the ship is one half empty and it looks it. 

Day Five of Trip

We left this lovely place for the ship with some regret. This has been a worthwhile extravagance--not a common phrase from me.

The driver was much more interested in talking about Onassis and Mrs. Kennedy than the financial problems but was as suspicious of conspiracy against the Greeks as the previous drivers.
Embarkation was surprisingly simple and the ship is beautiful. We noticed the smallness of the room after Laginesse.

There is a noticeable change in the staff, some effort to be chums. ("Beautiful--not the presentation, the lady.") We have an expressive wine steward. There are very few people at dinner. Our table of eight has only four, our partners are British, the man a former contractor for the U.S. Navy, the wife a former entertainer.

We will go to Athens again tomorrow.

Spend More, Save More

In the subsidies and tax credits for electric and hybrid vehicles, "The U.S. government will spend anywhere from $3 to $7 for each gallon of gasoline saved by consumers" according to a recent CBO report from Reuters.
 
Think about that for a minute.

Day Four of Trip

Feeling better and sleeping better.

Spent much of the day walking, lounging at the beach and reading. The weather and atmosphere is as lovely as possible. It is much easier to be a philosopher here.

There is an Asian theme restaurant here and I of course wanted to avoid it; I wanted a repeat of the risotto. I was outvoted and we went to the Asian place. It is located at the far from the room at the base of the peninsula and it was a beautiful walk. The setting looked like a postcard on the water. The other restaurants were on the sea, this one was on a small harbor with a few fishing boats tied up on the dock or at anchor. I was almost embarrassed at the privilege of being there.

I had the duck. It was one of the best meals I've ever had.

The Hands-Off Campaign

"Do we see sometimes us going overboard in our campaign, mistakes that are made, areas where there's no doubt that somebody could dispute how we are presenting things, that happens in politics."

This is a quote from Obama in an interview with "60 Minutes", which was edited out. It is a strange construction, passive, distant and hands-off, as if things were happening beyond his influence. Or maybe it's just the Royal "We."

Day Three of Trip

Still with difficulty sleeping. And making change and calculating tips. I am afflicted with jet lag more than most.

The weather is beautiful, cloudless and hot. Walked the peninsula today. There are a number of restaurants, a beautiful common pool, a center where we had an excessive breakfast and a cabana-like beach. There is an outdoor movie, too. There seems to be a town across the bay but there are few lights; perhaps weekend homes.

The phones do not work nor is there wi-fi. Apparently I have made an electronics error and such things must be arranged before one crosses national boarders. People and drugs can cross borders easily but not wi-fi.

Rested and read on the porch by the pool overlooking the sea. The place is gorgeous.

Went to the Greek restaurant (they rotate) with a lot of Russians, tough Greek men with beautiful, throaty Greek women. I never got past the salad I was so full. A lot of fish along the shore in the lighting.

I think my clock is beginning to adjust.

NPR 3 Minute Fiction: Interface

Interface

It was early dusk and, with a cloudless sky, it was still clear enough that the lights along the harbor were only a promise of things to come. The water was calm and dark as befitted a harbor of industry and commerce. Years ago the Europeans had invaded this virgin coast with ambition, avarice and salvation. Civilizations had fallen and risen. Yet this interface of land and water was little changed. And in the last hundred years the town had the same narrow streets and one and two story houses. Yet the town was but a spot along the huge water mass. In a world of earthquakes and mirages, there was nothing older or truer than the sea.

 He stood on the yacht behind the Jerry-rigged bulletproof Plexiglas as they slowly moved away from the dock towards the sound. Security hated these trips but he loved them. Ever since he was first in a boat as a child in New England he took time to sail. He loved the challenge, the outdoors, the connection to history. And the people. He loved the people. Sailors were more than a community, they were some small unidentified genetic subset. It was harder now, of course, but whenever he could get on the water, he did. He had introduced holding official meetings on the water as well; somehow it changed the footing and made discussions  less political. He thought this meeting had gone well too.
 
He felt a twinge of regret at what he had brought to this lovely scene, this huge sea, this old town trying to live with it. The yacht was incongruous enough among the old fishing boats while high above an AWACS throbbed silently and somewhere below a security submarine strained at its leash.
 
The pilot boat edged closer and the President smiled. The harbor was small for a pilot --probably a patronage job--and he wondered if this attention was needed, whether it was officious, polite or ceremonial.
 
Jeb Stein, his speechwriter approached him. "Should we say 'will improve relations' or 'should improve relations?"

"Should," he replied. Stein jotted on a notepad and left.
 
The yacht continued its slow progress. On the pier on the starboard side a trim young woman was keeping pace with them. Her features were indistinct, her light hair was clearly pulled back in a tight bun. She wore a tailored white uniform and her high heeled stride was slightly restricted by her skirt. Her face was turned towards the yacht as she walked. She wore no hat but was probably a Coast Guard officer. He did not remember meeting her at the reception but he might have.
 
The pilot boat turned back towards the harbor. The girl had reached the end of the pier and continued to look towards the yacht. She was an elegant figure in her white uniform at dusk. He walked aft on the starboard deck to be a bit closer. He wanted to be sure she could see him clearly. Perhaps she wanted to wave. He did not think it appropriate for him to wave first but he brought his right hand up midway on the Plexiglas, just in case.
 
The girl stayed for several moments looking out towards them, then turned and walked back along the pier towards the harbor at the same pace she had come out.
 
He dropped his hand and moved forward to look out over the empty sea.

Day Two of Trip

We woke up late and missed breakfast. After good coffee we wandered around the old town area and came across the hotel we stayed in years ago. It is actually nicer, still with a lovely view of the Acropolis from the rooftop restaurant. In spite of being a rather low end hotel--or used to be--it remains one of the tallest buildings in the area. Earthquakes make builders very conservative.

We found an old church knee deep in the old town below. There were more people; the area was so much livelier and I was reassured about the town. An optometrist fixed a pair of glasses for us and would not accept any money--charity being a good indicator of confidence, if not success.

We were scheduled to go to a resort, Lagonissi, for several days before joining the ship. It is along the southern shore. We had never done anything like this before and did not know what to expect.

A driver picked us up after noon and we drove easily. There must be some limo driver indoctrination school; this driver was more convinced about conspiracies against Greece than the first. We found the resort on a small, privately owned peninsula. There was no town in the immediate area. The room was gorgeous, large with a large and beautiful bath and a huge porch overlooking the sea. And the room's private pool. Staggeringly expensive, lazily elegant; just terrific.

We relaxed, struggled with jet lag and had a fabulous dinner at their Italian restaurant.

Day One of Trip

An uneventful flight into Athens aside from two screaming babies, a tiny one behind and a middle aged one directly in front.
We took a limo into town from the new airport on the new, German owned road. Beautiful drive. The driver was the owner and was furious at everyone over the Greek economic problems--the Greek government, the Chinese and the Germans. The presumed motive is to crush the economy and turn Greece into a European China and a cheap producer for the rest of  Europe. The driver believed that democracy does not work in Greece and the Greeks need a dictatorship.
The Hotel Grande Bretagne has been completely redone with a smaller check-in, the restaurant replaced with a upbeat bar/lounge. The room was lovely and overlooked the square.
It was Sunday and a bit slow but I thought the town looked poor and sad. A shocking amount of graffiti, always a bad sign.
Church was unusual: Latin mass, the congregation mostly Filipino and Malaysian, the gospel in English and Greek, the sermon in French and Portuguese.
We had dinner on at the roof restaurant looking at the Acropolis. The crowd was curious with elegant women and casual men.
It was hard to sleep with the jet lag.

Cab Thoughts 9/22/12

Desperate Housewife Eva Longoria, Planned Parenthood's head Cecile Richards, NARAL Pro-Choice America's Nancy Keenan, and Georgetown Law's contraceptive coed Sandra Fluke were all speakers at the Democrat Convention. Don't we have a lot of economic and health problems? Is there a priority problem here?

The Republicans, the party of small government and individual responsibility, has a party platform plank opposing on-line poker.

So the government is putting ads in Muslim countries featuring Obama and Clinton saying the famous film no one has seen and is responsible for the anti-American violence is not their fault but rather an American citizen's? Don't blame us, blame our citizens?

Obama went out of his way to show deference to the Middle East, even to the point of subordinating the Israelis' interests. So, how do you think that has worked out?

The Pirate swoon--for the second year--is drawing some fire, just as if they were a team of major leaguers.

John Hanger reports in his blog that Dimock, Pa. has been a center of international discussion over its fracking questions, mostly fantasies. But apparently reporters from Russia were dispatched to portray shale drilling environmental impacts that they hoped would convince Europe not to develop its shale resources, thereby cementing Putin's gas monopoly. Reporters with an agenda? Really?

"individuals who started using cannabis in adolescence and used it for years thereafter showed an average eight-point IQ decline. Quitting or reducing cannabis use did not appear to fully restore intellectual functioning among adolescent-onset former persistent cannabis users”-- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
"By the middle of the next decade, our cars will get nearly 55 miles per gallon, almost double what they get today,” Obama said recently. He did not say how.

In fairness, the new energy rules now include rewards for natural gas power.

In view of Islam's cultural context, is it possible for a female to have success in the Middle East as a negotiator?

"The specific energy of gasoline—measured in kWh per kg, for instance—is about 400 times higher than that of a lead-acid battery, and about 200 times better than the Lithium-ion battery in the Chevrolet Volt. We should not expect batteries to rival the energy density delivered by our beloved fossil fuels—ever."--Tom Murphy

The "You didn't build that" gaff/confession might be more a problem for Republicans than first imagined. This remarkably non-American, statist opinion somehow has made the Republicans focus on small businesses as their presumed target. The debate is bigger and more radical than that. Anyway, they are not going to be elected by swarms of pizza shop owners and haberdashers.

The difficulty with the Fed: In 1935, the Federal Reserve was granted “temporary” emergency powers allowing it to begin using Treasury securities, or government debt, as a reserve asset. The problem with Treasury securities as a reserve asset is that, unlike gold, they are affected by changes in the level of interest rates. So the "reserves" can fluctuate in value.

One of the most moving tributes in athletics accidentally occurred when Andy Roddick announced his planned retirement. This, with the similar announcement by Kim Clisters, caused commentator Mary Joe Fernandez to break into tears.


And a graph:
 

When the Powerful Withdraw

Louis M. Bacon is the head of Moore Capital Management, one of the largest and most influential hedge funds in the world. Recently he announced that he was returning one quarter of his largest fund, about $2 billion, to his investors. The reason he gave to The New York Times was that he had found it difficult to invest given the impossibility of predicting the European situation. He was quoted as saying, "The political involvement is so extreme – we have not seen this since the postwar era. What they are doing is trying to thwart natural market outcomes. It is amazing how important the decision-making of one person, Angela Merkel, has become to world markets."

This renowned hedge fund manager is saying that the politics of the modern world is moving against natural financial forces. This, and the nature of  heavy political involvement itself,  introduce so much unpredictability in the market that  his involvement became impossible.

And what are we poor average people to do?

Real Numbers on Real Debt

Lacy Hunt's observations published recently by Mauldin deserves a hard look. His argument is that the current economic problems have appeared many times before, all as the result of overextended borrowing and nonproductive debt. He has no real argument with the stimulus, arguing that illiquidity is the worst possible circumstance in the scenario, but states that every single similar economic episode has evolved in the same way: long term low growth with low interest rates and no runaway inflation.

As much as I hate to say it, a vote for Krugman.

The Real Conflict for the Church

The Catholic Church has over the years been cornered in a debate that was once theoretical and became, through technological advances, deadly practical: The notion of the beginning of life. Over time they have been backed into the position of defending the notion that life begins at conception and, along a different path, the idea that contraception is against "Natural Law." This position has some sizable philosophical holes but enough ambiguity that their preference for a safe position, like "do no harm," has become their stance. The result has been an alienation of a large percentage of their following and new problems that arise with every scientific advance.

Now the Affordable Care Act.

Under current insurance law the Church will be forced to participate in programs that violate the very essence of their positions over the last two centuries. They have filled a blizzard of law suits in an effort to protect themselves from these contradictions under the umbrella of "religious freedom." They lost their first case last week.

If they find no protection, their only alternative is to withdraw from participation in any service that is not specifically limited to their own congregation; this would force them to exclude others like non-Catholic patients in their huge hospital system, non-Catholic poor in their charities, non-Catholic students in their schools, and so on. Legally correct but morally offensive.

So, if they do not win their case, who will they be true to? There will certainly be a lot of outraged Catholics if the hierarchy surrenders this point after all the misery they have been put through.

Subsidiarity

"Subsidiarity, in addition to being one of the features of federalism, also refers to the theological belief that nothing should be done by a larger, more complex organization that can be accomplished as well by a smaller, simpler organization.
As developed by German theologian Oswald von Nell-Breuning, the principle is based upon the autonomy and dignity of the human individual and emphasizes the importance of small institutions from the family to the church to labor unions. Inasmuch as the welfare state is an instrument of centralized government, it is in conflict not only with personal freedom but also with Catholic teaching, as John Paul II noted in 1991.
He wrote that the intervention of the state deprived society of its responsibility."

This summary, by Kathleen Parker in a recent review of Romney's European trip, contains echoes of Distributism, a theoretical--and never to my knowledge purposely tried--notion of capitalism that emphasizes the small over the big, the individual over the corporation, and was championed by economists like E. F. Schumacher. It has suffered in history from a horrible modern deficit: Its foundation is moral.

Schumacher tried to show that individual ownership and production in life was essential to enriching the human spirit.

But, if it can't be quantified, it can't be.

The Shyness of America

The WSJ recently interviewed Charles Hill, a Yale professor with an extensive background in the U.S. Foreign Service, an adviser to Kissinger and Schultz as well as the U.N.. He sees a significant shift away from the international promotion of freedom to the more traditional and ancient "spheres of influence" or "empire."

Hill sees a progression in the international behavior of peoples from "empire" (Chinese, Mughal, Persian, Roman, Mayan) to "states." In fact he can date the change: The Thirty Years War between The Holy Roman Empire and the  "States", Netherlands, Sweden and France. Old allegiances were abandoned--Catholic France joined Protestant Netherlands and Sweden. The first international law philosopher, Grotius, emerged. And the Treaty of Westphalia" ended the conflict with a probably inadvertent state system. He says, "Every modern war has been fought against this international system" (i.e. "empire").

It is a view not without irony. The concept of freedom of the sea, free trade, suppression of slavery--all essential to the integrity of states--was really enforced by the navy of the British Empire. The concern for the preservation of the "self determination" of states was shunted on to NATO and the U.N. with varying success. And, of course, there have been the Americans. But recent changes have created tension. The Chinese are growing in economic power and influence. The Europeans powers have abdicated without a substitute. (Hill says it was almost as if the Europeans, so sickened by the disasters of the last century coming from them, from Europe, like colonialism, imperialism, Stalin, Marx, Lenin and Hitler, have said "..No more. We are going to be the most moral people in the world. And the Americans who have been causing all these problems with us? They represent the past, we represent the future.") So in order for the states to be maintained and the empires suppressed there must be someone or something to promote liberal democracy and international order. Historically it has been first the British Empire. Recently it has been America.

But the Americans are withdrawing too. Pressed by economic matters, led by a peculiar man, the Americans seem to be less interested in being responsible for the international status quo. These new consulate attacks present a new problem. Withdrawl is attractive. And voids are always filled.

A Third Rail

A recent article in Vanity Fair focuses on Karl Rove and his efforts to organize pro-Romney financial support through PACs. Hopefully this is not the real intent of the article; hopefully the real purpose is to show how a sizable third stream of influence is emerging in American politics. In this particular instance the money is raised outside the Republican Party infrastructure and being organized by the villain, Rove. But money is just a thing. Like a gun, it must be aimed. These organizations are pro-Romney today but, tomorrow may not be. Indeed, tomorrow they might be pro-Obama. Or pro-coal. Or pro-China.

In 2008, Obama outspent John McCain by around two to one. This year Super-PACs supportive of President Obama have spent twice as much on anti-Romney ads as conservative PACs have spent on anti-Obama ads. The NYT reports some analysts believe that Obama, after raising and spending $750 million in 2008, will come close to raising $1 billion this year.

$1 billion. Each dollar with its own string attached. From who knows who and with what motive.

Meanwhile, in Tampa, social activists are protesting something at the Republican convention dressed as vaginas.

A Strange Way of Represention

Geneva College, a Presbyterian school in Pennsylvania, has sued the government to be exempted from the ACA that requires them to pay for certain medicines and procedures the school finds morally objectionable. While this will result in a rather typical Freedom of Religion case, their suit gives insight into how laws are made and should remind us about the problems that have developed in running the democracy.

When the Affordable Care Act (ACA or Obamacare) was passed it was, like most laws, empty of specifics. Requirements within the law were not voted upon; they were left open ended to be filled in later by bureaucrats. This is more than common; it is the rule. One task, to maintain "preventive care" was left to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) who referred this blank slate to the Institute of Medicine (a non-elected group of experts which includes Leyland Hood) and Planned Parenthood (another non-elected group with many social interests.) “Preventive health measures” were included in the ACA to encourage prevention of diseases that result in poor health and increased costs but these groups of worthies suggested HHS include birth control and abortion under the law. Health and Human Services (HHS) agreed and this terrible problem was revisited upon the public without a vote, by fiat, effective August 1, 2012.

HHS is an agency with 11 Operating Divisions and 17 Staff Divisions, administers over 300 programs, has 67,450 employees, with an annual budget of 707.7 Billion dollars, and administers more grant dollars than all the other agencies combined. No one in this huge amorphous agency is known to be responsible for anything; since no one is responsible no one can be voted out. But, of course, they are appointed anyway.

And it is hard to change Anonymous' mind. And if you did, would it matter?

Butterflies Meet Black Swans

 "Critical state" is the point at which something triggers a change in the basic nature or character of the object or group. Earthquake. Landslide. Avalanche. Epidemic. Market crash. Revolution.

Mark Buchannan has a book out call "Ubiquity. Why Catastrophes Happen" in which he examines this notion.  It is a heady topic in science that involves chaos and game theory but fearlessly these scientists apply their abstract science thinking to modern life.

 In essence, as a stable state grows, the instability of the state grows, a very Minsky-like belief. "The collapse is fundamentally due to the unstable position; the instantaneous cause of the collapse is secondary." (Didier Sornette, a French geophysicist who wrote a book on money markets!)

So any non-static entity gradually builds its own instability. The triggering event is relatively minor in the equation but, as complexity grows, it is less predictable in timing and source. See this in terms of growing populations, growing technology and growing motives.

These are scary ideas. The only good seems to be that these scientists have finally broken the monopoly: Now, insted of just politicians, scientists are moving into areas they know nothing about.

Taylor Hunt once wrote: " We are really not managing risk anymore. We are managing uncertainty." (Mauldin)

Under the Wheel of Progress

In 1958 Mao Zedong, Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party, and the party leaders decided to take advantage China's greatest asset, its gigantic labor force. The country would focus upon industrialization and collectivization. Over the next four to five years all the nation's resources were geared to labor and production and everything from pots to plows were sacrificed for metal production, labor was channeled off the farms for production quotas and gradually one of the greatest disasters in human history was created. This was "The Great Leap Forward", also known as "The Great Famine." Over 45 million people died. Most simply starved as agriculture, along with most other commercial functions, ground to a halt.

But it was worse than it sounds. According to Frank Dikotter's new book "Mao's Great Famine":  "Thanks to the often meticulous reports compiled by the party itself, we can infer that between 1958 and 1962 by a rough approximation 6 to 8 per cent of the victims were tortured to death or summarily killed - amounting to at least 2.5 million people. Many more vanished because they were too old, weak or sick to work - and hence unable to earn their keep. People were killed selectively because they were rich, because they dragged their feet, because they spoke out or simply because they were not liked, for whatever reason, by the man who wielded the ladle in the canteen. Countless people were killed indirectly through neglect, as local cadres were under pressure to focus on figures rather than on people, making sure they fulfilled the targets they were handed by the top planners."

Such is the price people pay for visionaries.

Small Wind Sculptures

Massachusetts has subsidized small wind turbines for a number of years. A report reviewing their success--or, in this case, their abject failure--showed of 36 projects funded by the State since 2000, only 21 were still functioning by the time of the report, a 42% failure rate. And, of the operating turbines, the average production (capacity factor) was 3.9%, i.e., a 10 kw turbine produced only 390 watts.

For comparison, typical on-shore commercial (medium and large scale) run at 20-30% capacity factors. Offshore wind farms may run at 40% capacity factor - ten times better.

The British had a similar effort and reported this: The capacity factor for 26 small turbines (including breakdowns) over 168,950 hours was 0.85%. So 214 kw of turbines produced 1.8 kw. Factoring out the non-functional turbines, the capacity factor was 4.15%, just slightly above Massachusetts. A quote from the British review: "The poorest site generated an average of 41Wh per day when in operation or 15 kWh per year, which is less than the energy it consumed to run the turbine’s electronics."

It is easy to pick on these governmental forays into the real world but the point is not so much about the failures, the point is why do people with political science degrees try engineering as an avocation?

Sunday Sermon from the Road

 A story written by a woman who'd worked as a driver for some Buddhist monks traveling around California for a series of meditation programs: The monks had fallen crazily in love with a certain brand of coffee they'd discovered during the trip. But while they practically jumped for joy whenever they came upon some, she found it interesting that they never showed the slightest trace of disappointment if they failed to find any. Even when days went by without finding their coffee, they were no less happy. It began to dawn on her that if they never drank that coffee again, it wouldn't bother them in the least. Yet each time they found it they positively basked in the delight. (With thanks to Jim's Slog)

Some Real Health Outcomes

ObamaCare says that health insurance must cover the tests and procedures recommended by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. It will be interesting to see which tests are suggested--for example the Task Force opposes PSA testing for prostate cancer screening despite the fact that virtually everyone who knows anything about prostate cancer encourages it. What would the currently approved tests and procedures require of the existing medical system? According to a report in the American Journal of Public Health from Duke, arranging for and counseling patients about all those screenings would require 1,773 hours of the average primary-care physician's time each year, or 7.4 hours per working day. Just for screening.

How will such a volume be managed?

The common answer is that instead of patients' being funneled into the medical system through a financial screen it will now be a screen of time. Think of medical clinics in the military or local health department infectious disease clinics. Or a more expensive, smaller second tier system might emerge which prefers higher paying patients. (Although this type of evolution was specifically prohibited by the Hilliary plan as total medical cost was the target.)

But people willing to wait and fiddle does not solve the basic question: How can all these promises be met by a limited number of people and within a restricted budget when everyone knows that increasing demand with frozen prices is a scenario for shortages?

The obvious answer is to increase the number of people willing to do the screening at a lower cost. The answer is to substitute lower echelon medical personal for physicians. First nurse and PA's, then MA's, then....

Dueling Nonprofits

A recent crime, with a superficial profile that ordinarily would be very appealing to the national press, has been flying below the radar for the last while. Mr. Floyd Corkins, a volunteer at a local LGBT center, walked into a place in Washington D.C. called the Family Research Council and shot a security guard. He was reported to say, "I don't like your politics." The security guard's politics as yet have not been revealed. Why this story, with its obvious connection to isolated terrorism qualities, is not being discussed has not been explained. Perhaps the silence is because the Family Research Center is an obscure group previously known only as branded  by the Southern Poverty Law Center as a "hate group."

Who are these people?

The Family Research Center is a nonprofit created by James Dobson, an evangelical Christian, author and psychologist which champions marriage, abstinence for birth control, opposition to abortion and policy opposed to the mainstreaming of homosexuality.

Southern Poverty Law Center is a nonprofit civil rights organization. They are mainly known for their cases against the Klan and Klan-type organizations and have become official advisers to Homeland Security and the FBI. In 2010 the Center designated the Family Research Center as a "Hate Group." We do not know if the Family Research Center called them a "Hate Group" right back.

Here we have two organizations, both nonprofit recipients of tax-free donations and looked up to by their supporters and sympathizers, involved in a Hatfield and McCoy animosity and competition, both with extra-governmental tentacles extending into the hallways of Washington and influencing decisions.

Who are these people, indeed?

Security and Priorities

The basic questions raised by critics of the administration's handling of secret operatons will be revisited with the release of this new book on the assassination of bin Laden by a member of the SEAL team involved.

The questions are legitimate, strangely reminiscent of those raised when the NYT publicized the means the army was using to track bin Laden during the Bush administration. Obama announced his drone hit list, bin Laden's death and the U.S. involvement in the Stuxnet computer worm. The critics complain that the war on terror would have been advanced if only the government had remained silent; the targets would have been uninformed, more information would be available, and the American plans would be unclear and more difficult to escape.

But, like the NYT expose, the success of the plans was not the priority.

First things first.

Work and Jobs

There is a dishonest fragment in this staggeringly dishonest presidential campaign: The debate about jobs.

How can Romney run against Obama with both the assertion that the government can not create jobs and that Obama has failed to create them? This position is as stupid as Obama's position that government can create jobs and he has done a good job of it. Perhaps because these positions are so illogical, Obama has sought safety in accusing Romney of incredible crimes and Romney has responded with politeness. The United States is close to become an also-ran in economic production after leading the world for 150 years and the two candidates for the presidency are playing Truth or Dare.

Built into this problem is that anything the government spends is, by definition, a positive contribution to the Gross Domestic Product. If it spends X dollars on a failed cold fusion company, X dollars on teachers or X dollars on breakthrough method of cheap hydroponics all--all--would contribute X dollars to the GDP despite being of grossly different importance and value to the nation.

Here's a little number to ponder. In the last three years things have been economically bad in the Western world and are beginning to decline in the East. These conditions are the result of a number of serious errors in political judgment as well as irresponsible public behavior. In that three year period 2.6 million Americans got jobs with new employers; 3.1 million Americans went on Social Security Disability. For every five people who got jobs, six people went on disability.

That is more than an "economic malaise." That is a restructuring of the nation's mindset. It is what has kept South America from mirroring the success of North America and is destroying the living standards of Europe now.

It is hard to imagine, after all of the world's struggles and experiments, that the United States, the most successful economic and political entity in the history of the world, would be facing an election which demands a reassessment of the relationship between a government and its citizens. What is worse is there seems to be no one on the political landscape willing even to broach the topic.

The Puppet Masters

 A "prion" is a protein that occurs normally in life. Generally it is harmless. But if its form changes, its essence changes. By folding into an aberrant shape, the normal prion turns into a rogue agent. It then converts other nearby normal prions to change their shape. They then become rogue prions too. They then continue their contagion and become autonomous. So it becomes a disease. Not bacterial. Not viral. And it is a protein that reproduces but has no DNA.

Think of that. Reproduction without DNA. Reproduction by proximity.

In other words, it is probably an alien.

Cab Thoughts 9/1/12

The same day that Armstrong is stripped of his titles, Roger Clemens returns to baseball.

President Barack Obama's Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals gives a select group of undocumented immigrants the right to live and work in the United States for two years without fear of deportation. California is laying the groundwork for extending the right of driving licenses, too, for an estimated 400,000 immigrants. The idea of treating illegal immigrants as everyone else is hard to understand.

It is also hard to understand the argument against voter ID. Some things are counter-intuitive and just makes no sense because they just make no sense.

Called the "most important institutional change" after ObamaCare passed in 2010, the Independent Payment Advisory Board is composed of 15 people  who will rule over U.S. health care. They will design plans to assess effectiveness. Your health care, by a cost control committee. And only a minority of the board can be "directly involved" in the provision of health care, that is only a minority can know what they are deciding on.

In Austin, Texas a local community, Mueller, was designed to maximize sustainable living. It is the most concentrated area of electric vehicles in the nation; 40 EV's are owned there. A research group showed that the environmentally conscious citizens of Mueller charge their cars--usually once every two days for four hours--at about the same time. This draws about the power of an air conditioner and, with any real volume, will cause a lot of problems with the grid. Unintended consequence #814.

Cecilia Gimenez, an elderly Spanish lady apparently upset over the deterioration of a prize Elias Garcia Martinez fresco in her local church, decided to repair it herself despite having no experience in restoration. The fresco is virtually destroyed, as destroyed as if the damage had been malicious. People are angry at poor Ms. Gimenez. But her intentions were good; certainly that is excuse enough. A national leader in the making.

Is Akin's gaff dumber than promising to take your message to "all the 57 states" or "the private sector's doing fine"? No, but it's a deeper, more profound dumb. The real problem is he is running against a woman who said this in her successful campaign in 2006: Bush... "let people die on rooftops in New Orleans because they were poor and because they were black." The democracy is really blessed with great choices.

If I were Romney I would announce that my first act as president would be to declare a holiday honoring Neil Armstrong and the Curiosity landing on Mars. I would repeat it every year.

Three of five hospitals now belong to a parent company's network, while more than half of physicians are employed by hospitals or systems, not independent practitioners. Centralization is easier to standardize and control. Think agriculture.

The existing wells in Dimock, Pa. have received permission to resume work. No new wells, just the existing ones.  The gas migration issue in Dimock was a result of gas well design and cementing mistakes and not the hydraulic fracturing process.  No frack fluids or chemicals returned from depth, but thermogenic gas (not biogenic or naturally occurring) did migrate from some gas wells to 18 water wells. It will be an interesting test for both companies and regulators.

Lady Ailesbury, widowed by the First World War, would only allow herself to be kissed on the left cheek, the other remaining 'sacred to the memory of my dear Lord Ailesbury'. .

The UK has installed 2,500 megawatts of the world's 4,600 megawatts, according to the Earth Policy Institute. Offshore wind in the USA costs about 18 to 22 cents per kilowatt-hour, when wind on land can be produced for 5 cents per kilowatt-hour.

Why did James Harrison wait until training camp to have his knee surgery?

Europe's per-capita coffee consumption is the highest in the world. But a change in behavior has appeared; the demand for cheaper coffee is on the rise. This is seen as a cost savings choice by consumers.


Aaaaaannnndddd....a graph. The blue line is employment of over 55 years of age. The red is the rest.