Tuesday, March 31, 2020

The Cost of the Outlier


                             

                           The Cost of the Outlier




One of the problems in modern life is our inability to face things squarely. This is probably a good thing; the terrible inevitable outcome of life might otherwise paralyze us, the risks of daily living send us to the basement. But the hard questions are beginning to become elephant-in-the room-like. The East Germans solved the problem of drunk driving years ago this way: If you tested positive for any alcohol on blood test initiated by a breathalyzer, the State took the car you were driving. There was no appeal. 

The basic question seems to be this: To what lengths will we go to deal with the outlier?

This is from a 538 article:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-should-the-government-spend-to-save-a-life/




New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo dismissed Trump’s push to get the economy moving again, saying, “No American is going to say, ‘accelerate the economy at the cost of human life.’ Because no American is going to say how much a life is worth.”

Cuomo’s sentiment might be a nice bit of political rhetoric, but it’s not really true. Economists might not be able to say how much an individual person’s existence is worth, but they have figured out a way to calculate how much the average person is willing to pay to reduce the risk of death — which allows them to put a price tag on the collective value of saving one life. That figure, which currently hovers somewhere around $9 or $10 million, is known as the “value of statistical life,” and it’s the basis for all kinds of high-stakes decisions that involve tradeoffs between public safety and economic cost — from food and automobile regulations to our responses to climate change.

As cold-blooded as it might seem, several economists told me that, at least in theory, a pandemic is exactly the kind of situation this metric is designed to help with. “Essentially, we’re trying to figure out what our society is willing to pay to reduce the risk of mortality,” said W. Kip Viscusi, an economist at Vanderbilt University and one of the leading experts on these calculations. “In that sense, a pandemic isn’t so different from a terrorist attack or a pollutant that’s threatening to kill large numbers of people — it’s just happening very quickly and on a very large scale.”

Monday, March 30, 2020

The Coronavirus Cover-Up


                  "The Coronavirus Cover-Up"   

The Critic is a conservative British magazine with an arresting article sent by Don called "The Coronavirus Cover-Up" By Kapil Komireddi.

These are some sample paragraphs and, if accurate, may predict an entirely new post-virus debate. It is appalling. If true we are in the hands of monsters and morons.

"The calamity unfolding all around us did not emerge from a void. It originated in China. And its eruption into a global pandemic is inseparable from the nature of the regime that has ruled China since 1949. Had the authorities in that country intervened early to contain the fresh strain of the Chinese coronavirus, COVID-19, there would likely have been 95 percent fewer casualties. Instead, China’s one-party state created the conditions for the spread of the virus. For weeks, it suppressed information and punished those who shared it.
........


Once the virus made its inevitable outward march, claiming lives beyond China’s borders, the CPC mounted a major public relations exercise that exploited common human decencies to evade accountability. Criticism of the Chinese government was equated with racist prejudice against ordinary Chinese people. The result: rather than confront China, precious energies were exerted to avoid the trap set by China. In February, the Mayor of Florence launched a campaign encouraging Italians to “hug a Chinese”, describing it as a “fight of solidarity and unity against virus”. The People’s Daily, a mouthpiece of the CPC, applauded young Italians advertising their virtuousness on the Internet with photos of themselves hugging Chinese tourists without mentioning a word about the mortal perils of human contact.

China didn’t owe an apology or an explanation to the world: the world owed China proof of its anti-racism. There was no time, of course, to ponder the irony of the most xenophobic despotism in the world, which has interned a million ethnic Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, cleansed Tibetan Buddhists from their homeland, and deluged restive regions with Han settlers, setting itself up as the certifying authority on what constituted anti-racist behavior. There was no time to remember that, just three years ago, the state museum in Wuhan had put on an exhibition likening Africans to wild animals."

The link:

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Sunday/Lazarus



                                 Sunday/Lazarus

Today's gospel, in our time of sickness, is the strangely appropriate raising of Lazarus, the last miracle before Christ's passion.

There are some nice touches here.

On hearing Lazarus is ill Christ says ambiguously, 'This sickness will not end in death, but it is for God's glory so that through it the Son of God may be glorified.'

Bethany was dangerous territory for Christ. "The disciples said, 'Rabbi, it is not long since the Jews were trying to stone you; are you going back there again?'"

And Thomas, just a great human guy: "Then Thomas -- known as the Twin -- said to the other disciples, 'Let us also go to die with him.'"

In it, Christ is upsettingly emotional. Seeing Christ cry is unnerving as the gospels never report He never laughed.

There is a certain horror in the passage that Kazantzakis exploits in The Last Temptation of Christ where Lazarus follows Christ around as a living, decaying man.

And for those who might be searching for resurrection America might offer the human spirit:

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,

With conquering limbs astride from land to land;

Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand

A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame

Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name

Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand

Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command

The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

“Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!” cries she

With silent lips. “Give me your tired, your poor,

Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.

Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,

I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”
(The New Colossus by............Emma Lazarus!)

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Graphs on Stability and Quasi-Success



                    Graphs on Stability and Quasi-Success

 A graph that puts our trade concerns (economic, not strategic) in perspective:
  
 

Curious graph with a sting in it:


And two graphs showing when success is not success:




Friday, March 27, 2020

Cuba, Venezuela, Oil and Not




                 Cuba, Venezuela, Oil and Not

Cuba is promoting itself as a respite from The Virus, offering holidays with high quality medical backup.

The wonderfully vicious Mary Anastasia O'Grady has some comments in a recent WSJ article made available by Don. Here's some of it:

In a country where soap and water are luxuries, ramping up traffic from Europe was a precarious strategy. But desperate times spawn crackpot measures, and the Cuban economy is skating dangerously close to the edge. The regime needs dollars to maintain the police state that has kept it in power for six decades. Its problem today, in a word, is oil.

Cuba hasn’t done well on its own since Fidel Castro took power in 1959. It was a dependent of the Soviet Union until 1991. Havana was then forced to legalize the dollar and microenterprises and let foreign investors take minority stakes in regime companies. But the ruling elite didn’t like it.

The Castros found a new sugar daddy in Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, who came to power in 1999. A symbiotic relationship blossomed: Cuba would exchange its comparative advantage in repression for Venezuelan petroleum products. At the deal’s peak, from 2010-12, Havana received some $4 billion annually in oil subsidies from Venezuela.

Venezuela was pumping 3.4 million barrels a day before chavismo. Output is now around 750,000 barrels a day—and falling—thanks to poor well management, a scarcity of skilled labor and a collapse of investment.

Caracas has been eating big discounts because it’s difficult for buyers to get around U.S. sanctions. Russia’s Rosneft, formerly Venezuela’s key customer, is said to be put off by all that effort. Other former buyers can get heavy crude more easily from Saudi Arabia. With the international oil-price swoon, tar-heavy Venezuelan crude has plummeted to between $10 and $15 a barrel.

Venezuelan storage capacity on land and at sea is full up, so it is sending the excess to Cuba. This has boosted daily shipments back to 100,000 barrels a day from lows of around 20,000 before fall 2019. The Castro regime has been filling its storage tanks and selling what it can on the black market.

Yet more than crude, Havana needs gasoline, diesel and gas oil for electricity production, which Venezuela used to provide but no longer has the infrastructure to produce. Venezuela resorts to swaps when it can, but the terms are terrible. So despite the uptick in crude supplies, Cuba is still limping badly.

Meanwhile the effects of the coronavirus shutdown “are likely to be catastrophic for Venezuela,” Francisco Monaldi, an energy economist at Rice University, told me in a telephone interview last week. Running water and soap aren’t readily available in hospitals or even in many homes. Gasoline shortages make getting imported food to cities outside the capital difficult. Venezuela is heavily dependent on some $3 billion in annual remittances from citizens who fled, mostly to other South American countries, in recent years. If their jobs dry up in a deep regional recession, so will the flow of money. This will put more pressure on Venezuelan leadership to end subsidies to Cuba.

What’s more, it may be necessary to cap wells, and that’s unlikely to be temporary. Experts say it won’t be easy to restart them when human and financial capital is in short supply.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Principles Victims of Viruses




                 Principles as Victims of Viruses

A Bloomberg article is going to anger some people but has a lot of reasonable conjecture--conjecture--that I have summarized here. The argument is that many of the core beliefs of the Left will dissipate with the stress of Pandemic.The title is, The Coronavirus Killed the Progressive Left. (Of note, the destruction of principle in emergencies is philosophy-free. Conservativism and its small government, individual preservation preoccupation will decline as well.) For those who are discouraged about the lack of American quality in leadership, such a time where principles may not apply seems like a perfect time for our current crop. Both Washington and Lincoln were principled men refined by their times to lead, the same might be said of our time and the leaders we have.

The threat of scarcity will always trump principle.




-The notion of very open international borders will seem strange and indeed intolerable, as most of the world’s wealthy nations have been looking for ways to keep foreigners out.

-The egalitarianism of the progressive left also will seem like a faint memory. Elites are most likely to support wealth redistribution when they feel comfortable themselves, and indeed well-off coastal elites in California and the Northeast are a backbone of the progressive movement. But when these people feel threatened in their lives or occupations, or when the futures of their children suddenly seem less secure, redistribution will not be such a compelling ideal.

-A massive dose of fiscal policy has been another progressive priority. Now that even Republicans are embracing stimulus, as a political issue it will cease to be effective for the left.

-The case for mass transit also will seem weaker, because subways and buses will be associated with the fear of Covid-19 transmission.

-There is likely to be much more government intervention in some parts of the health-care sector, but it will focus on scarce hospital beds and ventilators, and enforce nasty triage, rather than being a benevolent move toward universal coverage.

-The climate change movement is likely to be another victim. How much have you heard about Greta Thunberg lately? Concern over the climate will seem like another luxury from safer and more normal times.


The threat of scarcity will always trump principle.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

The Oil War



                                      The Oil War




Lost in the Coronavirus explosion is the oil war. A month ago, Brent crude was trading at $57.67 per barrel. It had dropped to $34.36 by Monday, March 9. Trump’s announcement that the government would buy oil for the Strategic Oil Reserve propped up the price to $35.44, but since then prices have collapsed further. Tuesday, Brent crude fell to $30.41, and on Wednesday it was trading near $26. And West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, which usually goes for less than Brent, is hovering around $20.


The Russians wouldn’t agree to limit oil production and prop up oil prices because they want to put American shale producers out of business, and the Saudis at the end of the day decided to join the Russians. These are guys we have supported countless times in their squabbles and support now and they are partnering with sworn enemies of this country. They might sound like they’re feuding, but both of them, as well as Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, the National Iranian Oil Company, Petrobras, and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, ultimately want exactly the same thing, which is to get rid of as many American producers as possible. 


These will be challenging times, but clarifying. Both liberal and conservative philosophies will be compromised. Things will change. But, in the oil problem, an old adage may still apply: A competitor is an opponent who competes by the same rules, an opponent who competes with different rules is an enemy.

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Apprentices 2


                                    Apprentices 2

Men have been working on our house for the last 3 months, off and on. But there has been a change. When the esteemed Gov. Wolfe took "decisive action" and closed economic activity in Pennsylvania and the esteemed Mayor Peduto did the same in the city, they created gigantic no-work zones. No new work can be done and no new permits issued.
So....half the guys on the work crew on our roof have moved to Ohio, where there are less work restrictions.
All this to battle a problem we have only heard of.

Monday, March 23, 2020

The Apprentices



                                   The Apprentices

As we sit in our isolation, reveling in the joys of globalization and government power experiments, we can all be reassured that these times are going to prepare us for future similar risks. This is a dress rehearsal for "The Big One." 

But what if getting the Corona 19 Virus and its attendant  immunity protects you from "The Big One?"

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Sunday/Blindness



                               Sunday/Blindness

Today's gospel is the healing of the blind man. The debate is funny because the provenance of the blind man is proved by Christ's detractors. And there's another weird thing: After he is cured, Christ seeks him out.


                     Sonnet 19

When I consider how my light is spent,

Ere half my days, in this dark world and wide,

And that one Talent which is death to hide

Lodged with me useless, though my Soul more bent

To serve therewith my Maker, and present

My true account, lest he returning chide;

“Doth God exact day-labour, light denied?”

I fondly ask. But patience, to prevent

That murmur, soon replies, “God doth not need

Either man’s work or his own gifts; who best

Bear his mild yoke, they serve him best. His state

Is Kingly. Thousands at his bidding speed

And post o’er Land and Ocean without rest:

They also serve who only stand and wait.”


John Milton



             Going Blind

She sat just like the others at the table.
But on second glance, she seemed to hold her cup
a little differently as she picked it up.
She smiled once. It was almost painful.

And when they finished and it was time to stand
and slowly, as chance selected them, they left
and moved through many rooms (they talked and laughed),
I saw her. She was moving far behind

the others, absorbed, like someone who will soon
have to sing before a large assembly;
upon her eyes, which were radiant with joy,
light played as on the surface of a pool.

She followed slowly, taking a long time,
as though there were some obstacle in the way;
and yet: as though, once it was overcome,
she would be beyond all walking, and would fly.

Rilke

                      The Fog

I saw the fog grow thick,
Which soon made blind my ken;
It made tall men of boys,
And giants of tall men.

It clutched my throat, I coughed;
Nothing was in my head
Except two heavy eyes
Like balls of burning lead.

And when it grew so black
That I could know no place,
I lost all judgment then,
Of distance and of space.

The street lamps, and the lights
Upon the halted cars,
Could either be on earth
Or be the heavenly stars.

A man passed by me close,
I asked my way, he said,
"Come, follow me, my friend"—
I followed where he led.

He rapped the stones in front,
"Trust me," he said, "and come";
I followed like a child—
A blind man led me home.

W H Davies

Saturday, March 21, 2020

Stats on Air, Schools, Debt, and Government Size


Stats on Air, Schools, Debt, and Government Size

AIRFARES:


PUBLIC DEBT:




Employees at regulatory agencies doubled over the past forty years, rising from 140,000 full-time equivalent positions in 1978 to 280,000 today.
The US population increased by 47 percent during that time.




Looking at college tuition simply as an investment, two public four-year institutions, Maine Maritime Academy and the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, rank in the top 10 colleges with the best long-term returns, while two four-year private colleges, St. Louis College of Pharmacy and Albany College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, made the top 10 for short-term and long-term returns.

Friday, March 20, 2020

Iran, The Virus and a Rumor


                     Iran, The Virus and a Rumor

These are difficult times that require thoughtful analysis and reflection using only the most accurate information. That said, here's a great rumor.

The high rate of The Virus in Iran has been attributed to the Western blockade of goods and services. The Iranians are said to have subverted these restrictions by going through Russia and China, hence their increased exposure to The Virus. BUT...

It is said by some that the hierarchy of Iran's Shiʿa community saw an opportunity in China's western provinces to proselytize among the sizable Muslim population there and brought a lot of local religious leaders from China to Iran, particularly to Qom, a holy city and the site of the of the shrine of Fatimah bint Musa, sister of Imam Ali ibn Musa Rida (Persian Imam Reza, 789–816 CE). Qom is the largest center for Shiʿa scholarship in the world, and is a significant destination of pilgrimage, with around twenty million pilgrims visiting the city every year, the majority being Iranians but also other Shi'a Muslims from outside Iran. The Chinese New Year stirred the populations, and the pot. The pilgrimages stirred the populations, and the pot.


Voilà!


Thursday, March 19, 2020

Results and Will



                                       Results and Will

Most of the social action generated by government and its adherents stems from the belief that decisions, indeed most behavior, is the result of hidden, unknown psychological pressures or intimidation, overt or subtle. This can be seen in action from disparity in results; everyone is assumed in a non-pressured environment, to arrive at the same point at the same time. If they do not, something is afoot.

There are only two academic fields where women were significantly underrepresented in 2018 and have been historically: Engineering (22.2%) and Computer Science (20.0%). It is interesting to note that the female share of Computer Science degrees increased every year between 1972 and 1984 when it reached a peak of 37.1% before falling almost every year since then to a low of 17.6% in 2008, less than half the share in 1984. Over the last decade, the female share of Computer Science has gradually increased by 1.4 percentage points from 17.6% in 2008 to 20.0% in 2018. But for whatever reason(s), women’s interest in pursuing degrees in Computer Science peaked 35 years ago and declined steadily ever since then except for a small uptick in recent years.

There has been similar though not quite as dramatic decrease in female interest in majoring in Mathematics/Statistics in recent years. After increasing steadily over time and almost reaching parity in 2001 when the female share of Math degrees reached 48.2%, the share has steadily decreased over the last 16 years and fell below 42% in 2017 for the first time since 1979 before increasing in 2018 to 42.4%.

This disparity has a number of explanations. Apparently, one is not free will.

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

The Real Meaning of Black Monday






               The Real Meaning of Black Monday

The Spirit of 1619. CBS News wants to reeducate America on how racist everyone is by policing their language and making them understand that the country’s founding fathers were really awful bigots.




That’s the message that emerged from a Tuesday segment on This Morning where the anchors and their guests attempted to convince viewers that everyday terms with zero racial context are proof of how “the roots of racism” are deeply embedded in the US.

This is not just white noise and will not become a white elephant. These racists won't be able to whitewash this.


So we torture History with the enthusiasm of Torquemada, each ideologue providing his own Procrustean bed. 

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Coronavirus



                                     Coronavirus

A culture with a commercial basis has risks. Demand may not correlate well with value. Therefore 90 Day Fiance out-polls NPR. So what we can learn from the press about The Virus may have a slant.
There is a lot out there about The Virus now. An astonishing element is how it varies from cultural/governmental structures. This is from an article by a M.D., Chris Centeno,  sent by Don.

The monster in the background of epidemics is the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic. This influenza virus had a 2-3% mortality rate and killed an estimated 30 million people worldwide (1.7% of the world’s population). That number is hard to compare to today because this was before modern medicine and intensive care techniques that began in the Korean War and Vietnam. Now we have ventilators, anti-virals, drugs, and modern life support. In 1918 we didn’t even have simple things that can save lives like the widespread use of oxygen.

The average seasonal flu kills between 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year. Half a million people die from the average flu bug each winter. The CDC recently announced that the seasonal flu has killed 20,000 people in the United States this year with 350,000 hospitalizations. To date, worldwide, less than 4,000 people have died of Coronavirus. That’s less than 1% of the number of people who die from the seasonal flu. The panic is over the death rate per 100 patients reported out of Wuhan China, where the Coronavirus began. At one point, we heard very high numbers like 3-4% of everyone who contracted the disease or even twenty percent or more of the elderly. The average seasonal flu has much lower death rates.

The new death rate for seasonal flu worldwide, based on the most recent models, is 0.03% for people under 65 years of age and about 3% for the elderly over 75. You also need to keep in mind that most of the young who die from the seasonal flu have problems like a significant respiratory disease.

The most accurate data on case fatalities is from the only natural experiment that exists, the Diamond Princess cruise, a closed environment where we can accurately measure every person who gets sick and know the real number of people who perish based on that exposure. And it is probably not a robust population.

The cruise ship data shows a fatality rate of 0.85%. All of the people that perished were over 70, which is much more like the seasonal flu. In addition, the ability of the virus to spread was again, not that impressive as only about 20% got the virus. So while this bug is nasty, it’s NOT the middle-aged killer that the media has been making it out to be.

And some new numbers:
The outside of Wuhan Chinese death rate reported by their CDC is 0.4% (6)
The South Korean death rate being reported is 0.65% (7)

Other factors include environmental effects, like pollution. Here is an astonishing graph.
 

And, China is also significantly denser (4-5X the US), which facilitates viral transmission. In addition, China has many “Wet Markets” where live animals are kept in tight conditions and then slaughtered on the spot to be sold as food. You honestly couldn’t create a more perfect animal to human viral transmission model. In fact, it’s believed the coronavirus began in an animal sold in these markets called a pangolin.

And this last interesting graph on flu infection patterns:
 

Monday, March 16, 2020

Will on Hayek



                                

                                   Will on Hayek

Hayek brought a clear assessment of humanity and its organization to discussion, an assessment that those of political ambition and ideological fury must actively reject. He essentially debates the known and unknown, the knowable and the unknowable. This creates an additional problem for those who believe independence hinges upon the lack of interdependence.


Here is George Will on Hayek and the Tragic View of the Human Condition:

Hayek was enthusiastic about markets, but not because of utopian expectations. He was enthusiastic because markets comport with what he called the Tragic View of the human condition. Human beings are limited in what they can know about their situation, and governments composed of human beings are limited in their comprehension of society’s complexities. The simple, indisputable truth is that every one knows almost nothing about almost everything. Fortunately – yes, fortunately – this is getting more true by the day, the hour, the minute. As humanity’s stock of knowledge grows, so, too, does the amount that, theoretically, can be known but that, practically, cannot be known. As Hayek wrote, “The more men know, the smaller the share of all that knowledge becomes that any one mind can absorb. The more civilized we become, the more relatively ignorant must each individual be of the facts on which the working of civilization depends.” So, in a sense, ignorance really is bliss because so many other people, who are also ignorant of almost everything, are knowledgeable about something, and we can make use of their knowledge. People who travel by air as routinely as earlier generations traveled by bus do not need to know anything about how planes are built or flown or, for that matter, why they fly. Advancing scientific and technological sophistication constantly multiplies the number of things we do not need to think about because others are doing this for us. This division of labor into ever more minute bits liberates us to get on with our lives.

Sunday, March 15, 2020

Finite and Infinite


                                  Finite and Infinite

James Carse, the Director of Religious Studies at New York University, wrote a book, Finite and Infinite Games, that explores the difference between approaching life as a game with an end, or a game that goes on forever. According to Carse, playing to win isn’t nearly as satisfying as playing to keep the game going.

Finite players have to parade around their wealth and status. They need to display the markers of winning they have accumulated so that other players know who they are dealing with. Carse argues that these players spend their time in the past because that’s where their winning is.

Infinite players, in contrast, look to the future. Because their goal is to keep the game going, they focus less on what happened and put more effort into figuring out what’s possible. By playing a single, non-repeatable game, they are unconcerned with the maintenance and display of past status. They are more concerned with positioning themselves to deal effectively with whatever challenges come up.

Finite players need training. Infinite players need education. Why? According to Carse, “to be prepared against surprise is to be trained. To be prepared for surprise is to be educated.” If you play life as a finite game, you train for the rules. If life is instead an infinite game, you focus on being educated to adapt to unknowns.

Finite players need power. Power gives them the best chance to win in each successive contest. Infinite players need endurance. They need attributes to keep them going. Carse explains, “let us say that where the finite player plays to be powerful, the infinite player plays with strength.”

Saturday, March 14, 2020

Vanity Fair on Natalie Wood via The Hub


                   

                   Vanity Fair on Natalie Wood via The Hub


Almost 20 years ago, celebrity biographer Suzanne Finstad published her 2001 bestseller Natascha: The Biography of Natalie Wood. By that point, the vague details surrounding Wood’s death in 1981 made it one of Hollywood’s most infamous mysteries.


Wood had gone missing on a yacht only to be found dead six hours later in the Pacific Ocean. Just a year before Natascha came out, journalist Sam Kashner had written a long account for Vanity Fair about the volatile events leading up to Wood’s demise.


Wood, a popular star of films like Rebel Without a Cause (1955) and The Searchers (1956), had gone on the record about her fear of deep water just weeks before her death. In 2011, the Los Angeles County Sheriff Department reopened an investigation, and this year Finstad is publishing an updated version of her 2001 book called Natalie Wood: The Complete Biography.


In an excerpt published yesterday on Vanity Fair, Finstad makes what is perhaps the most substantive claim about Woods’ death to date: she believes evidence points to Robert “R.J.” Wagner, who was twice married to Wood, as her likeliest killer.


Finstad came into contact with three new witnesses who knew details about that night, including a confidential source who cooperated with the L.A. Sheriff’s Department and said that actor Christopher Walken had heard a loud fight between Wagner and Wood. Another witness, Vidal Herrera, reportedly photographed Wood’s body at the coroner’s office and saw wounds to Wood’s head that suggested some kind of blunt trauma.


Finstad believes her “smoking gun” witness is Dr. Michael Franco, who interned at the L.A. Coroner’s Office when Wood’s body came in. His conversations with Finstad are the first time he’s spoken openly to the media about Wood’s death. Finstad writes:


What Franco observed, and found suspicious, were the bruises on Natalie’s anterior thighs and shins, bruises he described as “friction burns.” He told me what struck him as wrong: “I remember the striations were in the opposite direction of somebody trying to get onto a boat. It was almost like somebody being pushed off. And because of the significant amount of the bruising in the lower anterior thighs and shins, that’s what caught my attention. She would have had to have been pushed forcefully off, or there was a force that was pulling her off, or something. The amount of noticeable bruising to the thigh shouldn’t have been there.”


The piece gets even wilder after this, as Franco suggests there was a cover-up in the coroner’s office.


Wood’s life was notoriously full of terrible men who did awful things to her, so Finstad’s updated biography comes at an important time. Maybe it’s not too late for Wood’s family to get some closure. The past has a funny way of resurfacing at just the right moment.

Friday, March 13, 2020

Biden



                                    Biden

Biden has been protected from very close scrutiny because he is a bit hard to take seriously. Yet, goofy as he is, he has opinions and is running for President.

The Boston Globe ran this comparison to Obama:

..on issue after issue, Biden has veered sharply from Obama’s path.

On health insurance, for example, Obama rejected a public option as part of the Affordable Care Act and repeatedly stressed the importance of maintaining private coverage. But Biden favors a public option open to everyone, including the majority of Americans with employer-sponsored health coverage.

Biden supports government-funded health care even for unauthorized immigrants, something Obama never came close to proposing. He supports a sharp increase in US refugee admissions and a path to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants. When Obama ran for the White House in 2008, by contrast, it was as an enforcement-first hard-liner. He cracked down so hard on those who crossed the border illegally, he was known for much of his presidency as the “deporter-in-chief.”

No Democratic presidential nominee ever endorsed anything like the radical Green New Deal, with its price tag in the tens of trillions of dollars and its goal of eliminating the use of all fossil fuels. But Biden does. No Democratic nominee ever called for a national minimum wage of $15 an hour. But Biden does. The former vice president has moved emphatically leftward on abortion, on the death penalty, on free trade. By any understanding of “moderate,” as that term was used when Obama or Bill Clinton was president, Biden is no moderate.

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Cass and COTI


                                         Cass and COTI

Is the average American better off today compared to 1985? No according to a recent much-publicized analysis by Oren Cass, who paints a pretty pessimistic picture of wage stagnation, a middle class in decline, rising prices, and an ongoing deterioration in the standard of living for the average American over the last 35 years. Cass, the executive director of American Compass, claims that his findings support the popular perception that: “A generation ago, the [male] worker could be confident in his ability to provide his family not only with the basics of food, clothing, and shelter, but also with the middle-class essentials of a house, a car, health care, and education. Now he cannot.”

More specifically, at the core of Cass’s story of gloom and doom is his claim that “In 1985, the typical male worker could cover a family of four’s major expenditures (housing, health care, transportation, education) on 30 weeks of salary. By 2018 it took 53 weeks. Which is a problem, there being 52 weeks in a year (see the top table above and the second chart).” In his report, Cass creates what he calls the “Cost of Thriving Index” which measures the number of weeks of income required for a single male breadwinner to cover the four major expenditure categories mentioned above for a typical family of four: Housing, Health Care, Transportation, and Education.

Cost-of-Thriving Index (COTI): the number of weeks of the median male wage required to pay for rent on a three-bedroom house at the 40th percentile of a local market’s prices, a family health insurance premium, a semester of public college, and the operation of a vehicle. …The COTI shows a declining capacity of a worker to meet the major costs of a typical middle-class household. As the COTI basket has become unaffordable, families have found workarounds, like having more household members work more hours, making do without, borrowing, and relying on government support. Each of these comes with its own costs, undermines the stability of families and the rationale for their formation, and creates high levels of stress and uncertainty. …The U.S. economy of recent decades has eroded, rather than reinforced, the American model of thriving, self-sufficient fami­lies.

One of Cass' graphs:




There has been a lot of discussion here, reminiscent of the response to Piketty's statistics. If one looks at the true out-of-pocket expense, the stats probably support increased, not decreased, earning power. With a couple of additional observations. Health care and education, where government interferes most prominently, has increased their costs considerably and, as shown below, the market shows what people want and are willing to do.

"An unfortunate undercurrent in this discussion is the implication that women’s participation in the labor force has been a disappointing social development, hurting families and reducing marriage rates. And there is also the claim that many women are working because it takes two incomes to finance a middle-class life. This is Cass’s conclusion.

But this likely gets the causation backward. Take education as an example. Lots of factors affect its price. One is higher incomes. As a society gets richer, its willingness to spend on these services increases. And as the demand for education services goes up, driven by higher incomes, so does its price. (Indeed, Cass’s chart shows what single- and dual-earner households choose to buy, and compares it with what one male earner makes.) And we have already seen that male workers have experienced significant wage gains."
(a number of sources, including Perry and Winship)

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Academics' View of What Makes Us Work



                 Academics' View of What Makes Us Work

The current discussion of the government participation in the Corona virus problem raises images of Trump and Li in white lab coats. This may not be far from the truth, the truth as least as government would like us to see it.

In her article, “Crossing the Great Divide: Coproduction, Synergy, and Development,” Elinor Ostrom suggests that the distorted emphasis offered in textbook accounts of public life has created a distorted view of how essential we view national-level political processes--and how essential they see themselves.

Scholars of public administration prioritize improving efficacy within government bureaucracies over improving efficacy of problem-solving within communities. Economics textbooks focus on possible market failures without considering possible government failures. Textbooks in political science prioritize articulating processes of national government over processes of local government and self-governance through non-state organizations like clubs, churches, and professional associations.

A couple years later, in her Presidential address to the American Political Science Association, Ostrom puts a finer point on the matter of why she is concerned about these fundamental biases. When scholars of public administration, economics, and political science ignore organized efforts outside the realm of war, conquest, and statecraft, we may actually be eroding our capacity to peacefully co-exist within a democratic society.

“All too many of our textbooks focus exclusively on leaders and, worse, only national-level leaders. Students completing an introductory course on American government, or political science more generally, will not learn that they play an essential role in sustaining democracy. Citizen participation is presented as contacting leaders, organizing interest groups and parties, and voting. That citizens need additional skills and knowledge to resolve the social dilemmas they fact is left unaddressed.”

She concludes:
“It is ordinary persons and citizens who craft and sustain the workability of the institutions of everyday life. We owe an obligation to the next generation to carry forward the best of our knowledge about how individuals solve the multiplicity of social dilemmas—large and small—that they face.”

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

McCloskey's Preface to the Korean edition







Deirdre McCloskey’s Preface to the Korean edition of her book, Why Liberalism Works. Her opening:

"Liberalism is the theory, by now only about two centuries old, that people should not be slaves—not Koreans as slaves to Japanese, not wives as slaves to husbands, not citizens as slaves to the State. A slave cannot say No. You can be a 100 percent slave, bought and sold, or merely a 14 percent slave, taxed at that rate. Being a slave to the State only on 14 percent of the days, only on Mondays, say, unable to say No, and beaten or imprisoned if you do, still means you are a (partial) slave. Liberalism makes everyone equal in permission to buy and sell, vote and protest, move and venture. No slaves."


So a group of McCloskey's Liberals can be an economy, or a club with variable membership. But can they defend themselves?

Monday, March 9, 2020

When Integrity Gets in the Way



                                             

                    When Integrity Gets in the Way




A new profile of Berkeley economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman in the New York Times contained a fascinating revelation about the ongoing academic reception of their work, summarized in AEIR. Late last year, Zucman was being courted for a faculty appointment by Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. Although the department voted to approve the hire, Harvard’s president and provost vetoed the decision. According to the Times, this was “partly over fears that Mr. Zucman’s research could not support the arguments he was making in the political arena.”

The issue with Zucman’s work revolves around a stunning statistical claim that he made last fall. According to his own proprietary calculations, the overall effective tax rate paid by the ultra-rich in the United States had dipped below that paid by the bottom 50 percent of earners for the first time in 2018.

Zucman released these statistics to journalists with much fanfare, where they were quickly trumpeted as “fact” by outlets including the New York Times and Washington Post to bolster Elizabeth Warren’s wealth-tax proposal. In reality, Zucman’s numbers had not even undergone scholarly peer review, as is the norm for work in the economic arena.

The weeks that followed their release also revealed something far worse than failing to adequately vet this seemingly stunning empirical claim.

Instead of objectively reporting the latest findings from tax statistics, Zucman was placing his finger on the scale. He appeared to be bending his results to conform to the political narrative of Warren’s campaign, which he was also advising at the time. Through a series of highly opaque and empirically suspect adjustments, Zucman had artificially inflated the tax rate paid by the poorest earners while simultaneously suppressing the tax rate paid by the rich.

Whereas Zucman now claimed to show the ultra-wealthy paid just slightly north of 20 percent of their earnings in taxes, the most recently available year of his previously published numbers (2014) places the rate at 41 percent.

Harvard’s administration, to its credit, recognized this inappropriate breach of scholarly standards and exercised a rare but necessary check upon their ongoing erosion in the academy. Naturally, that has left other activist academics and journalists who support his claims for political rather than scientific reasons in a fit of rage.

Saturday, March 7, 2020

McCarthyism








                                                     McCarthyism

Sometimes, math and science people just don't get nuance.

This is from Professor Abigail Thompson, chair of the math department at the University of California-Davis, and a vice-president of the American Mathematical Society, who writes that today’s required diversity statements for jobs in higher education are dangerously reminiscent of the political litmus tests of the McCarthy era:

Mandating diversity statements for university job candidates is reminiscent of events of seventy years ago. In 1950 the Regents of the University of California required all UC faculty to sign a statement asserting that “I am not a member of, nor do I support any party or organization that believes in, advocates, or teaches the overthrow of the United States Government, by force or by any illegal or unconstitutional means, that I am not a member of the Communist Party.” Eventually 31 faculty members were fired over their refusal to sign. Faculty at universities across the country are facing an echo of the loyalty oath, a mandatory “Diversity Statement” for job applicants.

The professed purpose is to identify candidates who have the skills and experience to advance institutional diversity and equity goals. In reality it’s a political test, and it’s a political test with teeth. What are the teeth? Nearly all UC campuses require that job applicants submit a “contributions to diversity” statement as a part of their application. The campuses evaluate such statements using rubrics, a detailed scoring system. Several UC programs have used these diversity statements to screen out candidates early in the search process.
…..
Why is it a political test? Politics are a reflection of how you believe society should be organized. Classical liberals aspire to treat every person as a unique individual, not as a representative of their gender or their ethnic group. The sample rubric dictates that in order to get a high diversity score, a candidate must have actively engaged in promoting different identity groups as part of their professional life. The candidate should demonstrate “clear knowledge of, experience with, and interest in dimensions of diversity that result from different identities” and describe “multiple activities in depth.” Requiring candidates to believe that people should be treated differently according to their identity is indeed a political test.

The idea of using a political test as a screen for job applicants should send a shiver down our collective spine. Whatever our views on communism, most of us today are in agreement that the UC loyalty oaths of the 1950s were wrong. Whatever our views on diversity and how it can be achieved, mandatory diversity statements are equally misguided.

Imposing a political litmus test is not the way to achieve excellence in mathematics or in the university. Not in 1950, and not today.

Friday, March 6, 2020

Immigrants, Science and Engineering



                  Immigrants, Science and Engineering

Foreign-born workers—ranging from long-term U.S. residents with strong roots in the United States to more recent immigrants—account for 30% of workers in S&E occupations. The number and proportion of the S&E workforce that are foreign-born has grown. In many of the broad S&E occupational categories, the higher the degree level, the greater the proportion of the workforce who are foreign-born. More than one-half of doctorate holders in engineering and in computer science and mathematics occupations are foreign-born.




In the United States, a substantial proportion of S&E doctoral degrees are conferred to international students with temporary visas. In 2017, temporary visa holders earned one-third (34%) of S&E doctoral degrees, a relatively stable proportion over time. They account for half or more of the doctoral degrees awarded in engineering, mathematics and computer sciences, and economics. Three Asian countries—China, India, and South Korea—are the largest source countries and accounted for just over half (54%) of all international recipients of U.S. S&E research doctoral degrees since 2000. By comparison, students on temporary visas earn a smaller share (6% in 2017) of S&E bachelor’s degrees. However, the number of these students has more than doubled over the past 10 years.

A majority of the S&E doctorate recipients with temporary visas—ranging between 64% and 71% between 2003 and 2017—stayed in the United States five years after obtaining their degree. Those from China and India, however, saw a decline in their respective “stay rates” from 93% and 90%, respectively, in 2003 to 84% and 85%, respectively, in 2013; the rates remained stable from 2013 through 2017.

Thursday, March 5, 2020

Zakaria on Sanders



                                   Zakaria on Sanders


So, Biden is resurrected and the establishment of politicians and the Press turns on Sanders. It is curious, as he really is the distillate of what they want. Maybe the glare is too great. This article is enlightening in its sketch of the Scandinavian countries, and their success.


CNN’s Fareed Zakaria last week in his Washington Post op-ed:

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) says that his proposals “are not radical,” pointing again and again to countries in Northern Europe such as Denmark, Sweden and Norway as examples of the kind of economic system he wants to bring to the United States. The image he conjures up is of a warm and fuzzy social democracy in which market economics are kept on a tight leash through regulation, the rich are heavily taxed and the social safety net is generous. That is, however, an inaccurate and highly misleading description of those Northern European countries today.

Take billionaires. Sanders has been clear on the topic: “Billionaires should not exist.” But Sweden and Norway both have more billionaires per capita than the United States — Sweden almost twice as many (see chart above). Not only that, these billionaires are able to pass on their wealth to their children tax-free. Inheritance taxes in Sweden and Norway are zero, and in Denmark 15 percent. The United States, by contrast, has the fourth-highest estate taxes in the industrialized world at 40 percent.

A 2008 OECD report found that the top 10 percent in the United States pay 45% of all income taxes, while the top 10% in Denmark pay 26% and in Sweden 27%. Among wealthy countries, the average is 32%. The basic point is worth underlining because the American left seems largely unaware of it, and it has only become more true over the past decade: The United States has a significantly more progressive tax code than Europe, and its top 10% pays a vastly greater share of the country’s taxes than their European counterparts.

In other words, bringing the economic system of Denmark, Sweden and Norway to the United States would mean embracing more flexible labor markets, light regulations and a deeper commitment to free trade. It would mean a more generous set of social benefits — to be paid for by taxes on the middle class and poor. If Sanders embraced all that, it would be radical indeed.

Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Communal



                                        Communal

For a culture awash in communal property, there's a whole lot of ownership going on, specifically ownership of literature and history. It's as if there is a shortage of both, as if one is taking too much of the history or literature pie.

If this sounds familiar, it should, This is the hallmark of the Progressive Left thinking: The Zero Sum Game. All things are in limited resource so anything one person has, he took from another. The rich has taken the poor's wages, the land owner has the apartment dwellers house, the Yankees have all the Pittsburgh Pirates.

For Black History Month, Barnes and Noble planned to publish classic works of literature in “Diverse Editions,” with new covers featuring nonwhite figures. One version of “Romeo and Juliet,” for instance, would be illustrated by a black couple kissing, even though Shakespeare’s characters are Italian. Within days, however, the company withdrew the plan in the face of online rancor over what one critic called “literary blackface.” 

To my knowledge, no English or Italians protested.

A new performance of "The Tempest" was done entirely played by women.


Henry V was done in Central Park with a male lead who was black.

Are these examples of cultural appropriation?

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Europe and China




                               Europe and China

There is an interesting evolution in Europe and their relationship with the Chinese. This is from an article in WSJ (Don) and, while a bit long, is worth the read.

Increasingly repressive at home under Mr. Xi, the Chinese party-state is now trying to stifle public criticism abroad, including in Europe. In recent months, these heavy-handed attempts to influence, and sometimes bully, European nations have triggered a backlash, drawing attention to the Chinese system’s fundamental difference with Western democracies.

“China is trying to export its governance model across the world, including into Europe,” said Volker Perthes, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a think tank that advises Germany’s government and parliament. “Europe is waking up to dealing with China not only as a customer, a marketplace and a big factory, but as a geopolitical and geoeconomic actor that is certainly a partner in many respects but also a competitor and a challenger, including to our values."

Positive views of China shrank in much of the EU last year, according to opinion polls. In Sweden, one of several European countries experiencing this new chill with Beijing, things have gotten so nasty recently that three major parties have demanded the expulsion of the Chinese ambassador to Stockholm, citing his public threats to Swedish officials, media and human-rights groups. “Some Swedish businesses now have to take into account Swedish public opinion: ‘Why do you do business in China, such a terrible country?’ That is quite new,” said Lars Freden, a former Swedish ambassador to Beijing.

China remains vital to the European economy, of course, and retains a network of influence on the continent. Bilateral trade stood at 604 billion euros ($665 billion) in 2018, the last year for which EU statistics are available, with a 185 billion euro deficit ($203 billion) in China’s favor. Chinese companies have invested heavily in key pieces of Europe’s infrastructure, like Greece’s main port of Pireaus and Portugal’s power utility, and control iconic European manufacturers such as Sweden’s Volvo Cars and Italy’s Pirelli.

Last March, the European Commission for the first time defined China as a “systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance”—a departure from the previous approach that viewed China mostly through the lens of lucrative trade opportunities.

“The U.S. is not able to deal with China alone, and Europe is not able to deal with China alone,” said Latvia’s Mr. Rinkevics. “If you look at it from the values point of view, from the strategic point of view, the U.S. should be our number one partner in addressing these issues, even though it’s not an easy partner.”

To other European leaders, however, this approach is rooted in wishful thinking. The U.S., they argue, already began disengaging from Europe under President Barack Obama, and EU interests are increasingly at odds with Washington’s. This means that Europe should stay out of the fight and pursue its own course.

France’s President Macron has pressed this point, insisting on greater “strategic autonomy” for Europe and arguing for renewed engagement with Russia to limit China’s power. Such thinking reflects a major shift, from seeing Russia as Europe’s biggest security threat, in the wake of the 2014 invasion of Ukraine, to realizing that China poses an even more severe challenge—economically, politically and even militarily.

These days in Europe, public discussion of matters such as the treatment of the Uighur minority in Xinjiang, protests in Hong Kong or the Chinese authorities’ initial mishandling of the Wuhan coronavirus often prompts angry public interventions by Chinese diplomats. From Stockholm to Prague to Rome, the Chinese message is: Keep quiet or your economies will suffer.

In the Czech Republic, China responded to plans by the mayor of Prague to foster cooperation with Taiwan by canceling a 14-city tour by the Prague Philharmonic Orchestra scheduled for last fall and by blocking subsequent visits of several other cultural institutions based in the city.

“Huawei and other state-backed Chinese companies are Trojan horses for Chinese intelligence,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in Munich.

Huawei insists that it is independent from the Chinese Communist Party and last year sued French researchers who alleged otherwise. At the same time, however, China’s ambassador to Berlin has issued implicit threats of targeting the German car industry if Huawei is excluded.

Sweden’s troubles with China began in 2015, when a Chinese-born Swedish citizen, Gui Minhai, disappeared on a trip to Thailand. A publisher once based in Hong Kong, Mr. Gui angered Chinese authorities by writing about alleged corruption in the family of Mr. Xi and other subjects considered taboo in Beijing.

Swedish officials say that Mr. Gui was kidnapped by Chinese operatives. Beijing says that the publisher turned himself in voluntarily to Chinese police to stand trial for a 2003 drunken-driving episode that resulted in the death of a young woman and, after his release two years later, was rearrested for “illegally providing state secrets and intelligence.”

The controversy turned into a crisis last November when Sweden’s PEN Center drew attention to Mr. Gui’s plight by awarding him the prestigious Tucholsky literary prize, which is usually delivered by the country’s culture minister. The decision drew a livid response from China’s ambassador to Stockholm, Gui Congyou, whose outbursts have made him a household name in the country. “Normal exchanges and cooperation will be seriously hindered,” especially if Swedish officials attended the ceremony, he warned. “Some people in Sweden shouldn’t feel at ease after hurting the feelings of the Chinese people.”

Sweden’s government ignored the warning and the culture minister delivered the prize anyway, at a ceremony where an empty chair was left for the jailed publisher. On Tuesday, a court in China’s Ningbo city said that Mr. Gui has been sentenced to 10 years’ imprisonment.

Such brushes with an increasingly intolerant, and self-confident, new China offer a sobering lesson to all Western democracies, according to Jesper Bengtsson, the chairman of the Swedish PEN Center. “We always used to talk about the spread of democracy and universal values, and about how we can affect change in countries like China from a position of strength,” Mr. Bengtsson said. “We now realize that we are not necessarily the strong party here. There has been a shift of power in the world.”

Monday, March 2, 2020

Corbyn and Sanders



                                     Corbyn and Sanders

There was an interesting article in the WSJ recently comparing Corbyn of the UK and Bernie Sanders. The article says that Sanders is very vulnerable in the same area that destroyed Corbyn: Patriotism.

"Among those who voted Labour in 2017 but not in 2019, the most common reason for switching allegiance, cited by 53%, was that they didn’t want Mr. Corbyn to be prime minister. That sentiment outranked Brexit as a motivation even among voters who defected to Mr. Johnson’s get-Brexit-done Conservatives by 75% to 73% (respondents could choose more than one option). These voters decided the election.

Mr. Corbyn had given them ample reason for doubt: There was his tendency to pal around with terrorists who killed Britons or their allies. His indulgence of anti-Semitism in Labour’s ranks, which offended working-class Britons’ sense of decency. His disdain for alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and military programs such as the Trident nuclear deterrent, which give the U.K. its esteemed place in the world.

Mr. Sanders faces the same problem. No one who shares Middle America’s core values of freedom, democracy and entrepreneurship would choose to honeymoon in the Soviet Union. No one who values American achievements in science, the arts or education would heap praise on Cuba’s schools.

Every other Democratic candidate on a debate stage with Mr. Sanders has been able to communicate even the most fantastical policy ideas with an undertone of patriotism. Mr. Sanders alone sounds as if he wants to replace America rather than transform it.

And if he wins the Democratic nomination he’ll be running against Donald Trump, whose only consistent mode is American greatness. Mr. Corbyn ran aground against a candidate in Boris Johnson and a policy in Brexit that spoke directly to British patriotism."



Sunday, March 1, 2020

Sunday/Wilderness



                            Sunday/Wilderness

“What would the world be, once bereft
Of wet and of wildness? Let them be left,
O let them be left, wildness and wet;
Long live the weeds and the wilderness yet.”
(Gerard Manley Hopkins)


Today is Christ's Temptation in the Desert, where Satan offers Christ things of this world, because they are of his world.


In the Wilderness

He, of his gentleness,
Thirsting and hungering
Walked in the Wilderness;
Soft words of grace he spoke
Unto lost desert—folk
That listned wondering.
He heard the bittern call
From ruined palace—wall,
Answered him brotherly;
He held communion
With the she—pelican
Of lonely piety.
Basilisk, cockatrice,
Flocked to his homilies,
With mail of dread device,
With monstrous barbed stings,
With eager dragon—eyes;
Great bats on leathern wings
And old, blind, broken things
Mean in their miseries.
Then ever with him went,
Of all his wanderings
Comrade, with ragged coat,
Gaunt ribs —poor innocent —
Bleeding foot, burning throat,
The guileless young scapegoat;
For forty nights and days
Followed in Jesus’ ways,
Sure guard behind him kept,
Tears like a lover wept.


(Robert Graves)